REGIONAL #198:  This group had a number of teams that grabbed my attention, with the most obvious being the 2016 Cubs, the squad that had won the Series to break a decades-spanning stretch of whining by Cubs fans everywhere.  However, it looked like there would be a number of opportunities for the Cubs to come up short in this bracket; there was an Indians team that was between two pennants in ‘95 and ‘97, and as with the last group there were two Phillies teams from eras that had done well in the tournament.  There was also a Blue Jays team a few years past a great era for them, and an Orioles team a few years before a similar dynasty.  I remembered last year’s Rangers team as mediocre, and guessed the ‘59 A’s were essentially a Yankee farm team, so I suspected that they were longshots.  I figured that the Cubs would take the regional just to spite this Sox fan, besting the Jays in the final.  The season-ending ELO rating for the Cubs put them in the top 50 teams of all time, but they also portrayed the ‘96 Indians as the best team in baseball that season, despite not winning the pennant, and just out of the top 100 of all time, potentially setting up a high-stakes semifinal game in which the winner would be favored over the ‘03 version of the Phils in the final.

First round action

The 1963 Orioles were an 86-win team that was beginning to transition to one of the best in history later in the decade and many of the pieces were in place, but the lineup had limited pop and the rotation wasn’t what it would become, although they had a 20-game winner ready to go in Steve Barber (20-13, 2.75).   They faced a steroid-era team that had plenty of power in the 84-win 1999 Blue Jays, with Carlos Delgado and Shawn Green both over 40 homers, and two AA’s in Shannon Stewart and Homer Bush gave them other ways to score.   However, the Jays rotation also bore the scars of the era, with Roy Halladay (8-7, 3.92) the best option but in far from his best season.   And Russ Snyder, the first batter of the game, gets a welcome to the steroid era by blasting a homer off Halladay’s card; a single and two walks loads the bases with nobody out for Al Smith, who hits into a DP but a run does score and the O’s take a quick 2-0 lead.  However, in the bottom of the 3rd the Jays rip four hits and three runs, one a 2-run single from Tony Batista, to take the lead, and in the top of the 4th Baltimore loses 2B Jerry Adair for the tournament with an injury.  But John Orsino leads off the top of the 6th by missing a HR 1/DO split, and Boog Powell leaves no double about it with a solid homer result and the Orioles regain the lead, with Brian McRae missing a HR 1-10/flyB split in the bottom of the inning that would have put Toronto back on top.  When the O’s start a 2-out rally in the 7th with a single and a walk, the Jays move to the pen for closer Billy Koch, and he whiffs Orsino to keep things close.   Stewart then leads off the bottom of the inning with a double off Barber’s card and Baltimore also summons their closer, Stu Miller, and he likewise does his job to keep the O’s in the lead entering the 8th.  However, in the bottom of the 8th the Jays get two straight singles off Miller’s card, and then supersub Craig Grebeck comes in to pinch hit; he hits a grounder to injury replacement 2B-3 Bob Johnson, who muffs a ball Adair would have had and the game is tied to begin the 9th.  With no tomorrow for the loser, both teams burn  their closers for the regional, and both hold serve in the 9th to send the game to extra innings.  In the top of the 10th, Jays 1b-2 David Segui begins the inning with a 2-base error, and a rattled Koch then grooves one to Orsino, who launches a two-run shot and the SkyDome is eerily quiet.  However, it comes back to life in the bottom of the inning with a single off Miller’s card followed by a dropped popup by C-4 Orsino; Tony Fernandez then singles for his third hit of the game and the bases are loaded with the winning run at 1st with one away.  Alex Gonzalez comes in to PH, and he hits a deep fly that’s caught, scoring one on the sac fly and it’s a one run game with the tying run in scoring position and two away.  Up comes the top of the order, and Shannon Stewart misses a DO 1-5/SI** split on Miller’s card but it ties the game and sends the winning run to 3rd.  At the plate is Homer Bush; Miller delivers, it’s a grounder to SS-1 Luis Aparicio, and the Hall of Famer boots it to hand the Jays the 7-6 victory on a walkoff error by one of the best fielding shortstops in history.

The 2003 Phillies were hoping to continue the success of the 2005, 2006 and 2008 teams in capturing regional crowns, and this version was competitive with 86 wins placing them as the #3 seed.  They had Jim Thome with 47 homers to finish 4th in the MVP votes, and a rotation that was okay by steroid-era standards with Vincente Padilla (14-12, 3.62) getting the first round start.  They faced a bad 94-loss 2022 Rangers team that I had seen live last year, in which they tossed a one-hitter against my White Sox to demonstrate that my Sox jinx works just as well live as in Strat.  With 40 players carded for the Rangers, you’d think that there would be a few more decent ones, but there wasn’t much to cheer about although Martin Perez (12-8, 2.89) was the AL leader in shutouts—with one.  The game begins ominously for both teams, with the Phils’ Jim Thome thrown out trying to score for the final out of the top of the 1st, and then one of the few decent Rangers, Corey Seager, lost to injury for the tournament in the bottom of the inning.  Philadelphia then gets things rolling in the 2nd with a 2-run homer by Placido Polanco, but Rangers DH Brad Miller responds with a solo shot in the bottom of the 3rd, and then Marcus Semien blasts a 2-run HR in the 4th and the Rangers now hold the lead.  Nathaniel Lowe adds some padding to that lead in the 5th with a run-scoring fielder’s choice, and when Semien leads off the 6th missing a HR 1-13/DO split on Padilla’s card, the Phils in desperation move to Rheal Cormier and his 1.70 ERA.  However, a two-out error by 1B-3 Thome extends the inning and a double by Josh Smith bounces past RF-3 Jason Michaels for another run, and the Phils end their inning on another nailed baserunner in Pat Burrell (1-11+2) in the 7th.  Those outfield assists are all Perez needs as he wraps up a 5-hitter and the Rangers pull off the 5-2 upset for a trip to the semifinals.

The 2016 Cubs won 103 games and the World Series on the basis of a solid lineup led by Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, first and fourth in the MVP voting, a strong bullpen, and perhaps the deepest rotation I’d seen in many regionals with three of their starters receiving Cy Young votes with third-place Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13) leading the league in ERA.  The 1995 Phillies went 69-75 in that strike year and were resting their hopes on a decent defense and their one good starting pitcher, Curt Schilling (7-5, 3.57).  The Cubs lose DH Jorge Soler to a minor injury in the top of the 2nd, and the Phils respond by losing 1B Gregg Jeffries for 8 games to lead off the bottom of the inning and the call goes out for more ambulances.  In the third Bryant misses a HR split but drives in two on the resulting double to give the Cubs the first lead, and then Willson Contreras misses a HR 1-15/DO split to lead off the 4th; Javier Baez singles him home to make it 3-0 Cubs.  However, a 2-out 2-run homer from Jim Eisenreich in the 6th makes it a one run game and Schilling is hanging tough, keeping the Phils in the game, but when injury replacement Tommy LaStella doubles to lead off the top of the 9th, Philly summons Ricky Bottalico to try to keep them in the game.  But a squib single from Addison Russell sets up a sac fly by Dexter Fowler to provide an insurance run, and the Phils see nothing but purple haze from Hendricks in the bottom of the 9th as he closes out a 4-hitter to send the Cubs on with a 4-2 win.

According to the ELO rankings, the 1996 Indians were the best team in baseball that season, winning 99 games and the pennant the year before and the year after, but they lost in the ALDS in ‘96.  They had speed in front of a killer heart of the order in Albert Belle (third in MVP), Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez, but they had some defensive holes and other than Charles Nagy (17-5, 3.41) who finished 4th for the Cy Young, their rotation was mediocre.   The 1959 A’s lost 88 games but had some weapons in Roger Maris, Bob Cerv, and starter Bud Daley (16-13, 3.17), all of whom would soon be bringing their talents to Yankee Stadium.  And it’s not a good start for Nagy in the top of the 1st, as after a leadoff single to Russ Snyder, Nagy turns a DP ball into a 2-base error and then allows a 2-run single to Maris off the pitcher’s card.  Daley then strikes out the first two Indians in the bottom of the inning and the A’s are feeling it, but then Belle doubles and Thome crushes one into the far reaches of the Jake; the hits just keep coming with RBI singles from Seitzer, Alomar, Baerga and Lofton and by the time the Indians finish batting around it’s 6-2 after one.  Back to back doubles by Belle and Thome start the bottom of the 2nd and the A’s decide to send Daley to New York early, hoping that crafty veteran Murray Dickson has something left in him, and sure enough he sets down three straight to prevent further damage.  In fact, he tosses four hitless innings to give the A’s a semblance of a chance, and they pick up a run in the 5th on an RBI single by Jerry Lumpe that gets under SS-2 Vizquel’s glove.  However, after DIckson is burnt not even A’s players like Dick Williams or Whitey Herzog can find anybody else in the bullpen with any ability, so #2 starter Bob Grim is called upon and he does his job; the Indians get only two hits against KC relievers but Nagy handles the A’s and Cleveland heads to a tough semifinal matchup with a 7-3 win.  

The survivors

The #4 seed 1999 Blue Jays had pulled off a dramatic come-from-behind extra inning win in the first round, but in the process they burned their closer for the duration of the regional and it was likely that their steroid-era rotation would need some help, with David Wells (17-10, 4.82) winning more games than his card would suggest.  Even so, they were going against the bottom seed of the bracket, the 2022 Rangers, who would be without one of their best players, Cory Seager, for the rest of the tournament but who did have a decent Jon Gray (7-7, 3.96) available to start.  But it’s Blue over Gray in the 2nd, as a couple of RBI doubles by Darrin Fletcher and Brian McRae along with a 2-out run-scoring single from Shannon Stewart makes it 4-0 Jays, although the AA stealer Stewart ends the inning by getting caught stealing for the second time in two innings.   A pair of RBI singles from Tony Batista and Fletcher add two more in the 3rd, and it could have been worse if Batista hadn’t been nailed at the plate, leading the Jays to think about abandoning the running game.  But Nathaniel Lowe finds and converts Wells HR for a 2-run shot in the bottom of the inning, and a two-out RBI single from Brad Miller in the 4th narrows the Jays lead to three.  The Jays get an insurance run in the 6th when a two-base error by SS-3 Marcus Semien, playing out of position because of the injury to Seager, puts a runner on 3rd who scores courtesy of a two-out wild pitch by Gray, and they record another in the 7th on a two out RBI single from Tony Fernandez.  A leadoff single by Stewart in the 8th and the Rangers can’t take any more of Gray, so Matt Bush gets his turn, and he ends the threat with no damage.   But, it makes no difference as Wells allows only one hit after the 4th inning and completes the 8-3 win to send the Jays to the finals.

The Zoom game of the week turned out to be the marquee matchup of the regional, the semifinal between the top seed 2016 Cubs and the #2 seeded 1996 Indians.  We had Tribe supporter ColavitoFan manning the Indians, while Stratfan Rick managed the Cubs as a neutral party.  The Cubs had an excellent Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44), with not many teams having the luxury of starting the Cy Young runner-up in the second round of the tournament, while Cleveland countered with 37 year old Orel Hershiser (15-9, 4.24) hoping that his big game experience would make the difference.  Unfortunately, there’s no treats for the Bulldog as the Cubs rake him in the top of the 2nd, with a 2-run homer from Addison Russell with additional RBI by Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras leading to an early 4-0 Cubs lead.  When the Cubs add another run in the 5th on a solo shot from Anthony Rizzo, the Tribe has to move past the Orel stage and in comes Eric Plunk, who not only does not bean anybody but tosses three masterful innings.  Meanwhile, Albert Belle puts the Indians on the board in the bottom of the 6th with a colossal homer, and Kenny Lofton drives in another run in the 7th to make it 5-2 and the Jacobs Field faithful are starting to hope that revenge for the 2016 Series might be possible.  But Jose Mesa takes over the late game from Plunk and crushes that hope, loading up the bases for a two-run single by Contreras, and the Indians have no answer as the Cubs win 7-2 to head to the bracket final.  

The World Champion 2016 Cubs had marched to the regional final by easily disposing of a couple of pretty good teams, and it was here in the third round that their outstanding rotation really should begin to shine, with Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10) getting Cy Young votes as the #3 starter, being better than most starters seen in this bracket.  However, the top seeded Cubs also had two players injured and there was pretty much nothing left on their bench.   The #4 seed 1999 Blue Jays were counting on Chris Carpenter (9-8, 4.38) to go deep in the game with their closer burnt, and were encouraged that their offense had showed up nicely in the semifinals.  However, the Cubs waste no time in the top of the 1st, as after Carpenter gets the first two batters out the Cubs rack up four hits and an error by 2B-3 Homer Bush, and it’s 3-0 Cubs before the first Jay steps  into the batter’s box.  The Jays respond in the bottom of the 2nd when Shawn Green doubles past CF-3 Dexter Fowler; he scores on a Darrin Fletcher single and Tony Batista comes in on a fielder’s choice and it’s a one-run game.  Then, in the 3rd Green’s second double of the game scores Bush, and a single from Tony Batista drives in a run but 1-14 Green is cut down at the plate; nonetheless, the upstart Jays now lead 4-3 after three, marking the first time they have been behind in the regional.  They aren’t behind long as Jorge Soler leads off the 4th with a long homer, although Kris Bryant leaves the bases loaded to end the inning with the game still tied.  Another leadoff homer in the 5th, this one by Anthony Rizzo, and the Cubs regain the lead although once again they leave runners in scoring position.  When Brian McRae doubles with two out in the 6th, the Cubs decide that Arrieta just isn’t sharp and for the first time move to their very good bullpen, with Pedro Strop coming in to record the third out.   Bush singles to lead off the bottom of the 7th and immediately steals second, but Strop then strikes out the heart of the Jays order and the Cubs are six outs away.   They move to closer Aroldis Chapman and his 1.01 ERA to begin the 8th, and he blows through the Jays in the 8th and records two quick outs in the 9th.  But the AA stealer Bush, with the game on the line, draws a walk, and challenges C-3 Contreras with a huge lead.  Undaunted, Contreras fires a bullet to second on the steal attempt, burning Bush and it’s Cubs win, Cubs win the regional for the 10th time, with the 2016 team joining the 2017 squad in the victory circle with the 5-4 triumph.  

Interesting card of Regional #198:  Back in my neighborhood league as a kid, I might have been able to hoodwink one of my less-savvy buddies to make a trade for a pitcher with ZERO singles on his card.   Unlikely as that hoodwinking may sound, the Indians did exactly that, making a midseason deal for Swindell in ‘96 in an apparently unsuccessful attempt to bolster their bullpen for a near-miss pennant run.  To me, this card nicely illustrates the difference between Strat, which is designed to simulate the past, and real baseball, where managers and GMs attempt to predict an unknown future.  I get a fair amount of comments about my all-Basic tournament telling me that “Basic isn’t realistic”, but adding additional minutiae to the game to simulate small-sample events (like clutch or even L/R splits in many cases) tends to make managerial decisions LESS realistic, because we have a much better knowledge of the likelihood of outcomes (particularly in those small-sample situations) than the actual managers did.  I can’t imagine the 1996 Indians being very interested in Swindell if they could take a time machine forward to February 1997 to check out this Strat card, but in reality Swindell had a 17-year career and none of his seasons, before OR after this one, were anywhere near this bad.  So when Mike Hargrove selected Swindell to pitch in ‘96, he was basing it on a career with 123 wins, a 3.86 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.   However, having the benefit of hindsight, any sensible Strat manager would bury Swindell deep in the pen and even with strict usage requirements in the service of “realism”, would absorb those almost entirely in mop-up situations.