Thursday, November 26, 2020

 REGIONAL #81:  Half of the teams in this regional were one year away from winning a pennant:  The 2015 Giants, 2001 Angels, 1984 Cardinals, and 1960 White Sox all fell in this category, while the 1968 Reds missed out by being two years away from the beginnings of the Big Red Machine dynasty.  So, while there may be no pennant winners here, there is plenty of talent.  The Angels wanted to immediately avenge the 2002 team's loss in the Regional #80, while my personal sentimental favorite is the Go-Go Sox, although my sentiments are rarely honored in this tournament.  I'll predict an Orwellian regional final, with an all-1984 cast and the Cardinals prevailing.  The ELO rankings (shown in parentheses in the bracket) tap my White Sox to win it all over the Giants in the final, which is concerning as being the ELO favorite seems to be the kiss of death in these regionals.  However, I do agree with their view of the prospects for the 1951 St. Louis Browns, who they list among the 50 worst teams of all times.

First round action:

The 2015 Giants won 84 games a year after capturing the NL pennant, and they were an impressive team, with exceptional defense (average range rating of their 8 starters of 1.5!), consistent if unspectacular offensive weapons,and Cy Young candidate Madison Bumgarner on the mound.  The 2001 Angels only managed 75 wins, and were obviously missing many of the key pieces of the 2002 version that won the AL pennant.  However, they greet Bumgarner rudely in the bottom of the 1st, raking him for 4 hits and 3 runs to push the Angels out to a quick lead.  Giants 3b Matt Duffy struck back, singled in two in the 4th, and when Buster Posey doubled with one out in the 6th, the Angels decided that it was time to revisit the strategy that had worked so well for the 2002 team in the previous regional:  turn it over to the bullpen.  However, Angels reliever Al Levine couldn't hold the lead, allowing a pitchers-card single to Marlon Byrd to score Posey and tie the game at 3-3.  Meanwhile, Bumgarner had settled in and the Anaheim bats were as quiet as a mouse (probably Mickey).  To keep things in reach, the Angels brought in closer Troy Percival to try to duplicate his Regional #80 heroics, and he held on to push the game into extra innings.  However, in the top of the 10th Percival retires the first two, but the SF Brandons (Belt and Crawford) walk and single to make it 1st and 3rd with Joe Panik up.  Percival delivers--CATCHERS CARD X.  Ben Molina (c-2) is desperately trying to avoid the passed ball--but instead manages a "safe at first on dropped popup" roll.  The Giants lead for the first time in the game, and Giants reliever Javier Lopez comes in to retire the Angels in order, saving the 4-3 win for Bumgarner and the Giants.

The 84-win 1984 Cardinals would win the NL the following season, and this version of the team relied upon solid fielding and remarkable team speed--in setting the lineup, I decided to line up FIVE AA stealers in a row, just because I could.   The '41 Phillies lost 111 games, and were so punchless that the best DH I could find for them had a .323 SLUGGING percentage.  Their best starting pitcher, Lee Grissom, had a record of 2-13, and facing 20-game winner Joaquin Andujar on the mound for the Cards you'd figure that prospects for a Phils win were pretty dim.  Although the Phils managed to move out to a 1-0 lead in the 4th when Joe Marty hit into a DP that scored a runner on 3rd, that was it for their offense as Andujar went the distance with a 5-hitter.  In the meantime, the Cards stole 3 bases on hapless c-4 Bennie Warren, and all three turned into runs as the Cards moved on with a 4-1 win.  However, the Cards have surprisingly little power and their rotation drops off quickly after Andujar, so things might get a bit more challenging when SF's c-1 Buster Posey is behind the plate in the semis.

After managing the terrible Phillies in the preceding game, I was curious to set the lineup for the 102-loss '51 Browns because the ELO rankings listed them as being even worse than those Phils.  However, there were some nice surprises on the Browns:  Ned Garver actually won 20 games for the squad, Satchel Paige was in the bullpen, Bob Nieman was available as a pinch hitter with a .372 average, and Tommy Byrne somehow managed to walk 150 batters in 144 innings but still managed an ERA of only 4.26.  Their opponent, the 83-win 1968 Reds, were not quite the Big Red Machine yet, but most of the parts were in place, and they boasted a typical 1968 season rotation that was perhaps better than those of the dynasty years.  The Browns jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the top of the 1st on an RBI single from the appropriately named DH Matt Batts, but the Reds counter in the bottom of the inning with a Rose double and Perez single making it 2-1 Cincinnati.  The Reds then solve Garver in the 3rd, Perez driving in another two and Reds DH Mack Jones launching a 3-run homer to make it 7-1, and the Reds start celebrating in the dugout.  The celebration seemed premature when the Browns scored 3 in the 5th on a Ken Wood double, and another 2 in the 6th narrowed the score to 7-6 as Reds starter Gary Nolan was having trouble hitting the strike zone.  Finally, in the bottom of the 8th Johnny Bench hit a 2-run HR to give the Reds some breathing room, and it ended that way, 9-6 Reds.  Nolan's pitching line in his shaky CG:  6 runs allowed on 6 hits and 7 walks.

A year after breaking a 40 year drought by winning the AL pennant, the 87-win 1960 White Sox still boasted many of the players that made them one of my favorite teams of all time, plus they added the immortal Minnie Minoso, a long time south side favorite.  However, I was also somewhat fond of the '84 Giants, as I had played the '83 version in a full-season play-by-mail league replay, although the '84 version had a far worse starting rotation that led them to 96 losses.  The Go-Go Sox struck in the first in typical fashion; Aparicio singles, steals second, Minoso singles him in.  In the 2nd, Chili Davis parks a solo shot to tie things up, and then in the bottom of the 3rd it's again an Aparicio single, steal, Minoso RBI.  In the 5th, Roy Sievers slams a 3-run HR and Joe Ginsberg, replacing an injured Sherm Lollar, adds an RBI single to provide a comfortable-seeming 6-1 lead, chasing SF starter Bill Laskey.  However, in the top of the 6th Frank Baumann is rocked for 5 hits and 4 runs, and suddenly it's a 6-5 game.  A Jeff Leonard single ties things up in the 8th, and the Giants threaten again in the 9th but Gerry Staley comes in to prevent any damage, and the game heads to extra innings.  Staley does his job, and in the bottom of the 11th Nellie Fox singles against Giants closer Gary Lavelle, takes second on a Sievers walk, and Sox RFer Al Smith lines a sharp single into right to score Fox and give the Sox the 7-6 walkoff win.

The survivors:

The semifinal matchup between the 2015 Giants and the 1984 Cards featured two teams with strong defense and pretty good starters (Jake Peavy vs. Kurt Kepshire), so it looked to be a low scoring affair.  When Matt Duffy tripled in a run in the top of the 4th and then scored on a sac fly, that two run lead looked formidable, and indeed that proved to be all that was needed.  Peavy pitched 5 scoreless innings for the Giants, but when he walked the first two batters in the 6th he was pulled, over his strong objections.  It proved to be a good move, as Hunter Strickland and Sergio Romo allowed just 2 hits over 4 innings and the Giants head to the finals with a 4-1 victory.  Key performance:  Duffy was just a HR shy of hitting for the cycle.

The '60 White Sox tapped HOFer Early Wynn for their semifinal game against the '68 Reds, but the 40-year-old Wynn's age was showing as the Reds raked him for nine hits and four runs in the first 3 innings.  In the meantime, Reds starter Jerry Arrigo was doing a fair impression of a HOFer, throwing six no-hit innings to start the game, but reality set in when the first two Sox batters in the 7th, Roy Sievers and Al Smith, hit back to back solo HRs.  Another hard hit by Gene Freese and Arrigo was gone, yielding first to Ted Abernathy and then to Clay Carroll, and that was it for the Sox; the Reds march on to the finals with a 4-2 win.  For the Reds, Lee May's pair of two-out RBI singles provided the key offensive spark.   Worthy of note:  this was the first of six games thus far in the regional where the ELO favorite did not win.

The regional finals between the 2015 Giants and 1968 Reds began in an unfamiliar manner for the defensively-minded Giants--three unearned runs in the 1st inning for the Reds when RF Justin Maxwell misplayed a Tony Perez flyball, and then Johnny Bench added a 2-run double.  The Giants roared back in the 4th to tie the game with RBI singles from Matt Duffy and Angel Pagan, but the wheels came off for SF starter Mike Leake in the 5th, allowing 4 straight hits, including a Perez HR, and it was 6-3 by the time the Giants bullpen could restore order.  In the 8th, the Giants got two on against Cincy starter Jim Maloney and Clay Carroll came in to end the threat. The Giants again got two on in the 9th with one out and Joe Panik representing the tying run at the plate, but Carroll induced the GB-2b-X and Tommy Helms smoothly converted the DP to preserve the 6-3 win and the regional title for the Reds.  This was the 8th regional win for the venerable Reds franchise (to go along with 1924, 1971, 1976, 1979, 1980, 1993, and 2012), putting them in the tournament lead in that category.  Tony Perez was tapped as regional MVP with a HR and seven RBI in the three games, knocking in at least one run in every game; Clay Carroll's two saves earned him an honorable mention.


Interesting card of Regional #81:   In the almost 50 years since the designated hitter rule was introduced, has there ever been a more inaccurate "designation" than this one?   Mr. Hill's DH-only card has to be the worst example of such that I've ever seen.  In fairness, Hill was a feared hitter in his day, with a lifetime SLG of .482, and the Angels were perfectly justified in signing him for $1.5 million as in the preceding season he had an OPS of .936 with 27 HR divided across two teams.  However these 66 ABs in 2001 were understandably the last of Glenallen's career, as he played his last game at the end of May.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

 REGIONAL #80:  There were two pennant winning teams in Regional #80 that were almost 100 years apart:  the 1911 Giants and the 2002 Angels.   The bracket was laid out in an interesting manner, with the top half all 20th century teams, the bottom all 21st century squads.  Aside from the pennant winners, competitive teams abound; the '90 Giants had won the pennant the previous year; the 2012 Royals would win one in two years; the 1920 Red Sox were just entering the curse of trading the Babe, and when I pulled the 2018 Yanks out of the drawers, staring me in the face was a Ruthian card from Luke Voit that I noticed was DH-eligible under tournament rules.  Given the way that Mark McGwire smashed his way through Regional #77, I picked Voit to do the same for New York, but the only team that I don't think has a shot are the '64 Mets.  The ELO ratings aren't provided for 2018, so the Yanks aren't rated, but those rankings viewed the two pennants winners as two of the best 100 teams of all time, with the Giants expected to prevail.  However, deadball teams don't seem to last long in this tournament, so I liked the Yanks to win the region, which surprisingly that franchise has only done twice before.  

First round action

The 1920 Red Sox had recently traded away Babe Ruth, and had fallen to 5th place in the AL with only 72 wins, but they still had a solid rotation (e.g. Herb Pennock and Waite Hoyt, who would both shortly join the Babe) and HOFer Harry Hooper.  The 1964 Mets lost 109 games, with some bad fielding and few guys who could get on base, but had more power in their lineup than the still-deadball Red Sox which gave them a puncher's chance for the win.  However, they were punchless against Pennock, who threw a 6-hit complete game shutout aided by 3 double-plays.  The Red Sox got all they needed in the 2nd inning, when Tracy Stallard loaded up the bases with a couple of walks and then Boston catcher Mike Menosky blasted a 3-run triple.  Stallard only allowed 5 hits, but the Red Sox converted them into 6 runs and a 6-0 victory.  However, one of the best Boston hitters, CF Tim Hendryx, went down to injury and is lost for the entire regional, and the limited Red Sox offense will sorely miss his .328 average.

This first round matchup featured two Giants teams that were nearly a century and a continent apart.  The 1911 Giants of New York won 99 games and the NL, boasting solid batting averages, remarkable team speed, and a rotation capped by Christy Mathewson.  However, the 1990 Giants of San Francisco were no doormat, winning 85 games and having power in the meat of the lineup from Will Clark, Kevin Mitchell, and Matt Williams that the 1911 team could only dream about.  Nonetheless, SF jumped out to a quick lead in the top of the 1st using smallball--Brett Butler walked, stole second, and was driven in by DH Mike Anderson.  A Fred Snodgrass single tied it in the 3rd, but SF moved back on top in the 4th with a solo HR from Matt Williams.  Buck Herzog tied it in the 5th with a single, but in the 7th a Butler double put the 1990 team back on top, 3-2.  In the 8th, NY put runners on 1st and 3rd with one out, forcing SF to call upon Jeff Brantley in relief of an effective start from John Burkett. SF played for the double play, and got it off the X-chart courtesy of 2b-2 Robby Thompson.  Brantley then survived the 9th inning, and the 1990 Giants move on with the 3-2 upset of what supposedly was one of the 50 best teams of all time.

The 2002 Angels won 99 games, and the World Series from a wild card berth, and with their team offense, killer bullpen, and decent rotation for the era one could see why the ELO rankings put them in the top 100 teams of all time.  Their opponents, the 2011 Rockies, only won 73 games and had a shallow rotation, although their offensive numbers rivaled those of the Angels.  When Angels leadoff batter David Eckstein homered off Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin's card, it looked like it was going to be a long night for the Rockies.  It did turn out to be a long night, but not as expected.  Chacin settled down, and a 2-run homer by Jason Giambi put the Rockies up 2-1 in the 4th and a fielders choice by Carlos Gonzales added a run to the lead in the 5th.  However, in the 6th back-to-back doubles by the Angels narrowed the score to 3-2, and a Garret Anderson single tied the game in the bottom of the 7th, and the score remained tied to send the game into extra innings.  At that point, the Angels were confident that the depth of their bullpen would win out, and a parade of Shields, Donnelly, and Troy Percival held the Rockies in check until finally, in the bottom of the 12th, back to back doubles by Fullmer (his 3rd of the game) and Tim Salmon gave the Angels a walk-off 4-3 win.

Setting the lineup for the 100-win 2018 Yankees posed an interesting dilemma, as although I was determined to get Luke Voit's awesome card into the lineup, a confluence of tournament rules then forced Aaron Judge to have to come in off the bench to get into the game.  Their opponent, the 2012 Royals, may have lost 90 games, but aside from a terrible starting rotation, their combination of team speed and defense illustrated why they would win the pennant two years later.  The Royals demonstrated their aptitude immediately in the top of the 1st, when leadoff hitter Escobar singled, stole second, and was singled home by fellow AA-stealer Jarrod Dyson.  However, in the bottom of the inning Miguel Andujar answered, doubling in Voit to make it 1 to 1 after 1, but that was it for the Yanks.  KC starter Luis Mendoza survived into the 6th without allowing additional runs, and meanwhile the Royals offense continued to chip away run by run, with two more largely generated by the stolen base, running NY catcher Gary Sanchez ragged (a c-4, there was not much he could do about it) until Sanchez eventually was injured in the 7th, no doubt throwing his arm out.  It didn't matter by that time as the Yanks were unable to muster any offense against the Royals bullpen, and Kansas City ultimately sent the Yanks packing with a 5-1 upset win.

The survivors

The semifinal matchup between the 1920 Red Sox and 1990 Giants began with the game remaining scoreless through five innings with each team trying to feel out the weaknesses of the two swing starters on the mound (SF's Trevor Wilson and Boston's Allen Russell).  The Giants finally struck in the bottom of the 6th, scoring runs on a Brett Butler RBI fielder's choice, a steal of second, and a double by Will Clark.  When Wilson allowed a baserunner in the 7th, I felt the need to get him out because of a solid 5-10 HR result that was making me nervous, so of course my bullpen selection, Francisco Oliveras, immediately allows a split result HR off his card, and the game is tied 2-2.  However, Robby Thompson puts the Giants back in the lead with a solo HR in the bottom of the inning.  That lead is short-lived, as I pulled Oliveras in favor of Jeff Brantley, who had saved the first round game for the Giants, and Brantley managed to allow .228-hitting Cliff Brady to tie the game with an RBI single.  The bottom of the 8th saw Dave Anderson drive in Butler to regain the lead for the Giants, but after the Giants then loaded the bases Russell retired Gary Carter to limit the damage to 1 run.  In the top of the 9th, Brantley faced the top of the Boston order and the first two batters reached safely to bring up Sox HOFer Harry Hooper, but Hooper hits into the DP, Schang pops out, and the Giants head to the regional final with the 4-3 win.

The 2002 Angels, starting Ramon Ortiz, and the 2012 Royals, starting Jeremy Guthrie, were both nervous going into this semifinal matchup as both starters had a propensity to allow the longball.  Tim Salmon doubled in a run in the top of the 1st for the Angels, although a second (1-16) runner was cut down at the plate to end the inning.   In the bottom of the 5th, Alcides Escobar finally found Ortiz's solid HR at 5-9, and the game was tied.  Because tournament rules mandate that starting pitchers must go 5 innings or 5 runs, both teams yanked their starters for the 6th, with the Angels particularly confident in their deep bullpen.  In the 7th, Scott Spiezio doubled in a run for the Angels, but yet another 1-16 runner was cut down at the plate on the play to end that rally.  Brad Fullmer singled in a run against Greg Holland in the 8th, and the Angels led 3-1.  In the bottom of the 9th, Troy Percival came in for the Angels to close things out, but the Royal got two baserunners on with a walk and a squib hit, so Percival faced pinch-hitter Lorenzo Cain as the potential game-winning run.  Cain fanned, the Angels win it 3-1, and they move to the finals seeking only the second regional win (1989 being the lone example) for the Angels franchise.

Can't stop this
The 2002 Angels went into the regional final just wanting starter John Lackey to get through his requisite five innings against the 1990 Giants so that they would be able to turn the game over to their stellar bullpen, and when they went up 1-0 on a Brad Fullmer solo HR in the bottom of the 2nd they were off to a good start.  However, Lackey ran into trouble in the top of the 3rd, allowing four hits with Kevin Mitchell and Matt Williams turning two of those into RBI and a 2-1 SF lead.  Nonetheless, things seemed to be going according to script when the Angels scored two in the bottom of the 5th to grab a 3-2 lead that would enable them to put Lackey on a short leash.  Sure enough, Brett Butler doubled to start the 6th and Lackey was immediately pulled for Brendan Donnelly and his 2.17 ERA.  But, the Angels pen finally failed them, as Donnelly walked Anderson and then allow a triple to Will Clark and the score was now 4-3 Giants.  The Angels pen wouldn't allow another hit, but it was too late, as Giants starter Scott Garrelts (with closer Jeff Brantley unavailable after two previous appearances) was able to finish what he started, throwing a 6-hitter to clinch the 4-3 win and the regional--the 7th for this venerable franchise.  Brett Butler was selected as regional MVP, demonstrating a remarkable knack for getting on and scoring from his leadoff position.

 

A promising start
Interesting card of Regional #80:  Although Luke Voit's Ruthian card (.689 SLG) from the 2018 Yanks was tempting as a selection, his team went down in the first round and because it was a recent release, many are probably already familiar with his card.  Instead, I decided on reliever Francisco Rodriguez from the 2002 Angels, a card which is much more obscure as an extra player.  F-Rod's card is interesting for a number of reasons.  First, how many times do you see a pitcher receive a card with 6 IP (actually, 5.2)?  Second, these were F-Rod's first innings in the majors, not even qualifying as a rookie with his Sept. 18th call-up.  Now, most of the time these low AB/IP wonder-cards resulting from late season call-ups never materialize into anything, but F-Rod became one of the best relievers in baseball, leading the league in saves 3 times and ending his career with 437 saves, good for 4th in baseball history.  Thus, despite the miniscule IP, this card was actually quite reflective of the pitcher he would turn out to be.  Finally, consider that SO to IP ratio, good for a SO per 9 inning rate of 20.6--yes, that's "averaging" 21 strikeouts for a nine inning game.  As part of a great bullpen for the 2002 Angels, Rodriguez made two brief but flawless appearances in the regional, including striking out the side in the top of the 9th in the finals, albeit to no avail for the Angels.



                                   

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

REGIONAL #79: This regional had some interesting squads but no pennant winners. The '68 Cubs and '73 Orioles had a chance to reprise the finals of Regional #25, where the '69 Cubs defeated the '72 Orioles, although I didn't think either of the current regional versions were as good as the teams that met earlier. The '76 Tigers, of course, featured The Bird, the 2003 Cardinals were just a season off from the NL pennant, and the '91 Expos would try to win Montreal's first regional. My guess was a Cardinals/Expos final, with the Cards prevailing.  

First round action: 

The 1973 Orioles won 97 games and the AL East, and they had Cy Young award winner Jim Palmer on the mound; the 1949 Reds lost 92 games and had little to brag about, with a young Ted Kluszewski having his worst power year (8 HR?) as a regular. However, the Orioles displayed all the characteristics of a favorite looking to get beaten: leaving runners in scoring position, hitting into double plays, Bumbry nailed twice stealing second, and Belanger (ss-1) making an error that gave the Reds a 2-1 lead in the 6th. However, in the bottom of the 6th the Orioles started playing like division winners, with Belanger contributing a 2-run double to atone for his error, and ultimately the Orioles prevailed with a 5-3 victory, with Palmer tossing a 5-hit complete game for the win. 

The 2003 Cardinals won 85 games with a monster year from Albert Pujols and a strong supporting cast, but a suspect starting rotation. However, the last-place, 101-loss 1955 Senators were suspect everywhere and were mainly looking at real estate in the Twin Cities area. The matchup turned out pretty much as expected; the Cards put on an offensive clinic, with a grand slam by Jim Edmonds, a 4-hit performance from Scott Rolen that included two doubles and a triple, and pairs of RBI from Pujols, JD Drew, and Bo Hart. In the meantime, St. Louis starter Woody Williams scattered 7 hits, with an Eddie Yost homer the sole blemish, although he did make things interesting by walking three straight batters to start the bottom of the 9th. True to form, the Senators' Mickey Vernon promptly hit into a triple play, sending the Cards off with a blowout 13-1 win. 

The 1976 Tigers were primarily known for their rookie pitcher Mark "The Bird" Fidrych, who captured the imagination of the fans while winning 19 games and Rookie of the Year honors. It is not as well remembered that the Tigers were otherwise a pretty bad team, finishing next to last in the AL East winning only 74 games. Fortunately for them, their first round opponent was even worse, the 1960 Cubs who went 60-94 to finish next to last in the NL, with little to root for aside from Ernie Banks. The first score was in the 5th when Ron Leflore recorded his 2nd of 3 steals of second, and Rusty Staub drove him in for a 1-0 Tiger lead. In the 7th, Chicago DH Frank Thomas (misleading, isn't that?) hits a 2-run homer to put the Cubs up, but in the bottom of the inning the Tigers score three, Alex Johnson delivering a 2-run double. Fidrych allows three straight hits to start the 9th, and can't hold the lead as the Cubs tie it at 4-4, and the game goes to extra innings. Finally, in the bottom of the 11th, Mickey Stanley singles off Cubs reliever Don Elston, Veryzer sacrifices him to 2nd, and with 2 out Alex Johnson laces a hit to score Stanley and give the Tigers (and reliever John Hiller) the 5-4 walk-off victory. 

The 1968 Cubs won 84 games in finishing 3rd in the NL, while the 1991 Expos lost 90 games and finished last in the NL East. The "ELO" rankings put the Cubs (the 1058th best team of all time) well ahead of the Expos (#1586) but I liked the Montreal speed, hitting, and a strong Dennis Martinez on the mound. The Expos moved out to a 1-0 lead on a Tim Wallach solo HR in the 2nd, and a 2-run double by Spike Owen pushed it to 3-0 Montreal in the 4th. Meanwhile, Martinez had a perfect game going into the 7th inning, when a mistake to Adolpho Phillips made the seats at the Stade Olympique to make it 3-1. However, that was it for the Cubs--Martinez ended up with a one-hitter and just one BB allowed, and that erased in a double-play, so he pitched to just 28 batters. 20-game winner Fergie Jenkins tossed a 4-hit complete game but that wasn't good enough, and Les Expos move on with a 3-1 win. 

The survivors: 

The ELO rankings put the 1973 Orioles as the 165th best team of all time, considerably better than the 2003 Cards at #598, but although Baltimore had a strong starting rotation, the Cardinals lineup included far more weapons as evidenced by the 13 runs they scored in the first round. The Orioles opened things up in the 5th with solo HRs by Earl Williams and Bobby Grich, both off STL starter Matt Morris's card, but the Cards retaliated with 3 runs off Cuellar in the bottom of the inning. In the 7th, the Cardinals defense imploded, with four errors (two by ss-2 Renteria) and when the dust clears STL reliever Kiki Calero allows 5 unearned runs for a 7-3 Baltimore lead. The Cards strike back with a run in the 7th and 2 in the 8th, which ends with Bo Hart being nailed trying to score from 2nd with the tying run. Meanwhile, Cards closer Jason Isringhausen is handling the O's, and in the 9th the Cards put runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out courtesy of a Belanger (ss-1) error and a RF X-chart double. That brings up Jim Edmonds to face Baltimore closer Grant Jackson, and with the infield in Edmonds rolls a 2-2: gbA++ plus injury. Both runs score, and presumably Edmonds was hurt in the post-game celebration of the 8-7 win, although he should be available for the finals. 

Although the 1976 Tigers survived the first round with The Bird on the mound, getting any further was going to be a challenge; the ELO ratings ranked them as the worst team in the AL that season, WITH Fidrych. Even so, their opponent, the 1991 Expos, still lost more games although the ELO ratings ranked them higher than the Tigers. The Tigers did jump out to a commanding 4-0 lead in the 3rd, rocking Montreal starter Chris Nabholz for six hits, but the Expos put up a run in the bottom of the inning and another in the 4th made it 4-2. In the 6th, Tigers starter Dave Roberts lost his stuff, and the Expos kept knocking hit after hit until pinch hitter Bret Barberie and his .353 average knocked in the go-ahead run off Tigers closer Hiller to make it 5-4 Expos. An error and a double in the 8th chased Nabholz, but Expos closer Jeff Fassero came in to squelch the rally and held on to put the Expos in the finals with a 5-4 win--a rare instance where I was actually correct in predicting the teams in the finals! 

The 1991 Expos were the 6th representative of that franchise to reach the regional semifinals, but no Expos team had ever won a regional, and the 90-loss 1991 version seemed like an unlikely candidate to be the first. Their opponent, a much higher ranked 2003 Cardinals team, had lost J.D. Drew to injury, although Jim Edmonds was ready to play after his walk-off injury in the semifinals. The weak St. Louis starting rotation also was in play, with Garrett Stephenson (7-13, 4.59 ERA) being the Cards best option. The Expos exploited that weakness quickly, with Marquis Grissom blasting a 2-run homer off Stephenson's card in the bottom of the first. A Tim Wallach squib hit made it 3-0 in the 3rd, and although Tino Martinez doubled to put the Cardinals on the board in the 4th, Expos catcher Gil Reyes singled home a run in the bottom of the inning to make it 4-1. In the 5th, Larry Walker hit the second 2-run homer of the game off Stephenson's card, sending him to the showers and putting Cal Eldred on the mound, but it was too late. Mark Gardner tossed a complete game 6-hitter for the Expos, and the joyous if sparse Stade Olympique crowd celebrated the first Expos regional win with a 6-1 victory.

Interesting card of the regional:

For this feature, I thought about presenting The Bird, but he didn't pitch that well and his team didn't get that far, so I decided to go with this one, Mr. Bret Barberie.  He presented an interesting dilemma:  a killer offensive card, terrible at defense, but DH eligible under tournament rules (minimum 100 ABs).  However, I also had the option of upgrading LF defense by putting in strong fielding (and good-hitting, albeit not quite Barberie) Dave Martinez and moving Ivan Calderon to DH.  I elected to go with the fielding and use Barberie to pinch hit or to replace an unexpectedly weak-hitting Andres Galarraga after the 5th inning if the Expos fell behind.  My decision seemed to work, as the underdog Expos won the regional and Barberie had the game-winning hit as a pinch hitter in the second round.  However, another interesting aspect of the Barberie card is something common to all 1991 cards that made them unique in the history of Strat-o-matic cards--can you spot what that is? 


Tuesday, November 3, 2020

 RANKING THE TEAMS:  THE "ELO" APPROACH

I recently ran across I just ran across this interesting "ELO" ranking of every MLB team between 1903 and 2015, a total of 2,374 teams:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-mlb-teams-of-all-time-according-to-elo/

This seems like a useful means of trying to determine who might be favored in the tournament matchups, although my informal appraisal of teams doesn't always match up that well with the "ELO" evaluation.  Out of curiosity, I checked their rankings against the results of my recently completed single-elimination regional #78. Of the seven regional games, they predicted the winner four times; however, the top two ranked teams of the eight involved (the 2010 Phils at number 182 and the 1959 Braves at #424) both lost in the first round!  At any rate, I will probably be making references to these ELO rankings in later posts, so if anyone wants to check out the source, just follow the above link.

Sorry, not eligible!
By the way, they consider the 1939 Yankees the top-ranked team of all time.  There is no carded version of that team in Stratomatic (at least not yet), so it doesn't look like they will win this tournament!   The rankings had the 1906 Cubs ranked second; they lost in the first round, getting shut out by the 1940 Reds 6-0.  Not too impressed here.



Monday, November 2, 2020

 REGIONAL #78:   This regional had no pennant winners, but at a quick glance it seemed that all of the teams in the bottom half of the bracket were within three years of a pennant, while only one squad (the '69 A's) could make that claim among the top half teams.   So I guessed it would be those A's, looking for a second regional in a row for that franchise, against the survivor of the tough matchups in the lower half in the finals.   I had no clue who that will be, but whoever it is, I thought that survivor would win the regional.

First round action:

The 1924 A's only won 71 games, but the nucleus of their later great teams was beginning to form here--Al Simmons, Bing Miller, Jimmie Dykes, and Eddie Rommel tapped as the starter.  In contrast, the 2003 Twins won 90 games and the AL Central, and although they didn't sport any Hall of Famers, they did have the formidable Johan Santana on the mound.   Things got off to a fast start in the bottom of the 1st when leadoff hitter Jacque Jones blasted a homer, but Rommel largely settled down, although the Twins scored on a Rivas sac fly in the 4th and a Cory Koskie RBI single in the 7th.   The A's finally got on the scoreboard in the 8th to make it 3-1, but the rally against a tiring Santana was killed by a gbA from Bing Miller.  Santana stuck it out for the 9th in an effort to preserve the bullpen for later rounds, but a walk and a hit put Miller up to bat as the go-ahead run;  Santana held on, Miller popped out, and the Twins move on with a 3-1 win.

The 1969 A's were on their way towards greatness, winning 88 games and finishing second in the AL West; the 1941 Cubs were receding from their 1930s greatness, but tapped Bill Lee to start to try to recapture those glory days.  But the most evident factor in this game was my terrible managing skills.  After a Babe Dahlgren solo shot put the Cubs up 1-0 early in the game, Reggie Jackson doubled on a missed HR split and the A's led 2-1 entering the bottom of the 8th.  Catfish Hunter was throwing a 3-hitter but he had a solid 5-5 HR that was making me nervous, and I was eyeing reliever Jim Roland, who had some control issues but no hits other than singles on his card.  However, I decided to stick with Hunter, and of course the first hitter for the Cubs, Lou Stringer: 5-5 roll.  Game tied, it goes to extra innings.   Lee is doing well and I leave him in for the 10th, his last inning of eligibility.  Lee retires the first two batters in order, but walks Rick Monday to bring up the guy the Cubs did not want to see this inning:  Reggie Jackson.  Decision time again:  intentional walk or no?  I decide...pitch to him.  Boom, 2-8 roll, solid HR.  Bando then goes back to back, and the shell-shocked Cubs go down in order in the bottom of the inning to Roland.  Final score, A's 5-2, 10 innings.

This first round matchup involved two good teams that each made the postseason.  The 2010 Phillies won 97 games and the NL East, and represented a nicely balanced combination of power, defense, speed, and pitching.   Their opponents, the 2013 Indians, won 92 games and earned a wild card berth, but didn't seem to me to be nearly as solid top to bottom as the Phils, and facing 20-game winner Roy Halladay on the mound I didn't like Cleveland's chances.  The Indians jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the 2nd on a Michael Bourn single; Carlos Ruiz did the same for the Phils in the 3rd but Carlos Santana's double in the bottom of the inning put Cleveland back up, 2-1.  Inning after inning, the Phils would get runners into scoring position but Indians starter Justin Masterson kept them stranded.  In the bottom of the 7th, Cleveland put men on first and third with two out, and I decided to bring in Brad Lidge, even though I was actually at the playoff game where Albert Pujols crushed a homer off Lidge that may still not have come down.  Sure enough, the first batter up, defensive replacement Yan Gomes, rolls the HR on Lidge's card, and in the 8th a 2-base error by Jimmy Rollins (the third of the game for the Phils, a squad of all 2s and 1s) scores two more and adds to the lead.  Final score, Cleveland 8, Philadelphia 1.

The 1959 Braves won 86 games as the runner-up in the NL; only two years after their '57 pennant, the middle of their lineup still boasted Aaron, Mathews, and Adcock and they had two 20-game winners in Spahn and Burdette to count on. The 2014 Astros lost 92 games, and although they had the seeds of a pennant winner in Altuve, Springer, and Keuchel, they had little else.  So, it was a bit of a surprise that after 9 innings, the score was knotted at 3-3, with homers by Springer and Mathews providing much of the scoring.  The Braves loaded the bases in the bottom of the 10th, but reliever Tony Sipp ended the threat, and neither team could score until the 14th, when the Astros drilled three extra-base hits off Milwaukee reliever Bob Rush's card, and the Braves had no answer as the Astros score the 5-3 upset.  The Braves displayed the syndrome that kills a lot of favorites--the tendency to strand runners in scoring position and to hit into double-plays, as they could only convert their 16 hits into 3 runs.

The survivors:

Neither the 2003 Twins nor the 1969 A's demonstrated much offense in their first round matchups (at least in regulation innings), and their semifinal matchup looked similar, with both Blue Moon Odom and Kenny Rogers holding the bats in check.  RBI singles from Shannon Stewart, Torii Hunter, and Phil Roof had the score at 2-1 Twins entering the 7th.  The A's had two hits and a walk to knock out Rogers, but in the middle of that rally AJ Pierzyski nailed Campaneris in a stolen base attempt and Latroy Hawkins came in to squelch the rally.  Things remained unchanged until the bottom of the 9th, when two Twins errors (both "2" fielders) put runners on 1st and 2nd with one out and Reggie Jackson at the plate.  Jackson singled, pinch runner Jose Tartabull (1-15) headed for home--out at the plate.  Twins closer Eddie Guardado then fanned Sal Bando for the final out, and the Twins head to the finals with a 2-1 win.

Two homers, no guitar solos
A wild semifinal game between contemporaries, the 2013 Indians and the 2014 Astros, had some unlikely heroes.  The Indians staked themselves to a 4-2 lead heading into the 9th inning, courtesy of 2 homers from non-guitarist Carlos Santana, and the Astros were down to their last batter with two out in the bottom of the 9th.  Jake Marisnick, in for the injured Dexter Fowler, delivered a two-run homer to tie the game and send it into extra innings, a familiar spot for the Astros who took 14 innings to win their first round game.  Astro's starter Collin McHugh stuck it out for the 10th, as he had only allowed 6 hits--albeit including the two blasts from Santana, now out of the game for a defensive replacement.  However, the Indians immediately reeled off four runs, two from a Nick Swisher double, and the Indians led 8-4 heading into the bottom of the 10th.  When Zack McAllister loaded the bases with one out, the Indians turned to Brian Shaw, who promptly walked in a run and then allowed a 2-run single to Marwin Gonzalez to narrow the score to 8-7.  Another walk loaded the bases for...you guessed it, Jake Marisnick again.   After some agonizing, I decided to play the infield back looking for the double play, as Marisnick's 3-column was pretty loaded with gbAs.   The roll...3-10, gbA, game over; the Indians move on to the finals, barely hanging on to an 8-7 win.

The finals matchup thus featured two 90-game winners that reached the finals in very different ways; the 2013 Indians with late-inning offensive bursts, and the 2003 Twins squeaking by in low scoring pitching duels, with the Indians outscoring the Twins 16-5 in the initial rounds.  The Twins took a 1-0 lead in the 3rd when Asdrubal Cabrera (ss-2) made two consecutive errors for the Indians, but the Indians had a burst in the 5th scoring four runs on five singles, chasing Twins starter Kyle Lohse.  Meanwhile, Indians starter Ubaldo Jimenez is cruising, striking out 10 in 8 1/3 innings, aided by a key Cabrera X-chart DP in the 8th.  However, in the 9th the Twins mount a rally, courtesy of some serious pinch hitting (e.g., Mike Ryan's .754 SLG%), and the Indians turn the ball over to Brian Shaw.  Pierzynski steps to the plate as the go-ahead run for the Twins, but Shaw induces the groundout, earning his second save in a row and the Indians earn the regional title with a 4-2 win.  A wild card team in real life, the 2013 Indians join six other Tribe teams as regional winners in this tournament, tying them with the Reds for the most successful franchise.