REGIONAL #201:  The team that stood out most for me in this draw was the 2002 Mariners, who had put together a record-setting season the previous year but failed to capture the pennant, so this would be a chance to redeem themselves.  There were a couple of teams that were a few years away from being good, such as the Mets before they were Amazin’, a Pirates team that I thought might have been just before their lengthy period of exile in the basement, a White Sox team that should have Frank Thomas at the peak of the steroid era, an Orioles squad still trying to forget the Browns years, and a strike year Giants team.  Finally, there was a pandemic year Arizona team and anything from that season is a crapshoot.  I counted on a Mariners redemption that would come at the expense of the Sox in the finals.   The ELO ratings also had Seattle as big favorites, picked to win over a Braves team that was the best of a mediocre collection in the bottom of the bracket.

First round action

Coming after a season in which they won 116 games, the 2002 Mariners still won 93 but that was only good for third place in a strong AL East, although they nonetheless earned the top seed in this regional.  Ichiro, John Olerud, and Edgar Martinez still paced the offense, and Jamie Moyer (13-8, 3.32) was a young 39 year old ready for the round one start.  In a rare first round #1 vs. #8 seed matchup, they played the hapless 1966 Mets, who bore almost no resemblance to the team that would shock the baseball world three years later; this version lost 95 games and had even less punch than the infamous ‘62 Mets, with Ken Boyer leading the team with 14 homers.  Jack Fisher (11-14, 3.68) headed up a pitching staff of ‘50s relics that would soon be totally overhauled.  In the top of the 3rd, Ichiro gets an RBI single but is robbed of a second ribbie when 1-12 Carlos Guillen is nailed at the plate; to make up for it, he then scores on a Mike Cameron single to make it 2-0 M’s.  Ichiro again comes up with the same two runners on in the 5th; this time he leaves no room for split die problems as he doubles past CF-3 Cleon Jones, and once again Cameron singles him home and Seattle leads by five.  The Mets get on the board in the bottom of the inning with a Jerry Grote sac fly, and Fisher gets stronger as the game progresses.  However, Moyer is in control until the 9th, when he gets an out but then allows two straight singles off his card to put the tying run in the on-deck circle.  A discussion on the mound and the Mariners decide to try to save their pen and stick with the veteran, and the next pitch is a grounder back to P-2 Moyer, who turns the nifty DP (the Mets 4th GIDP of the game) and Seattle moves on with the 5-1 win.

The 1994 Giants and the 1989 Pirates had something in common:  they both had an offense that consisted largely of two hitters, and one of them was Barry Bonds.  The Pirates lost 88 games and had a 24 year old Bonds (with only 19 HR) and the still-currently paid Bobby Bonilla, although Doug Drabek (14-12, 2.80) was a strong first round starter a year away from a Cy Young award.  The Giants were the #2 seed in this regional although they only went 55-60 in that strike year, but their tandem of Bonds and Matt Williams was formidable, with 37 and 43 homers respectively in a truncated season.  However, their pitching was unimpressive, with Mark Portugal (10-8, 3.93) their best option.  It’s the slimmer Bonds that starts things off in the top of the 3rd with a 2-run single that puts the Pirates ahead, but in the 4th SF Bonds singles, steals second, and scores on a 2-base error by Pirates LF-2 Bonds.  A leadoff single by Jay Bell in the top of the 6th and the Giants quickly move to the pen in the form of William Van Landingham, but he’s wild and a bases-loaded walk to Junior Ortiz makes it 3-1 Pittsburgh.  A 2-out RBI single by Andy Van Slyke, his third hit of the game, adds an insurance run in the 7th, but Drabek is dealing and doesn’t need it as he wraps up a 3-hitter and the Pirates move on to the semis with the 4-1 win.  

The 80-82 1998 White Sox had the power typical of the steroid era, with Albert Belle leading the way with 49 homers, but they didn’t have a starting pitcher with an ERA under 5, with Jim Parque (7-5, 5.10) being the closest.  The 74-80 1959 Orioles had the opposite problem, as there weren’t a lot of offensive threats in the lineup but Hoyt Wilhelm (15-11, 2.19) led the AL in ERA and would be facing his future teammates in the only season of his 21 year career in which he was primarily a starter.  In the 2nd, it’s Chico Carrasquel with a two-out RBI double against his former teammates to put the Orioles up, but O’s 2B Billy Gardner ends the inning getting injured.  Brooks Robinson then leads off the 3rd with a homer off Parque’s card, but in the top of the 4th Frank Thomas misses a HR split, but the double scores 1-15+2 Mike Caruso and it’s back to a one-run game.  However, the O’s lead off the bottom of the inning with three straight hits off Parque’s card, and a few walks and a sac fly from Robinson later and it’s 4-1 O’s.  A walk to lead off the bottom of the 6th and the Sox park Parque and try Moneyball favorite Chad Bradford, but Gus Triandos taps him for an RBI single in the 7th.  Meanwhile, Wilhelm is cruising, but then in the top of the 9th Sox supersub Craig Wilson leads off with a double; Thomas walks with two away and Robin Ventura follows with a triple to score two and bring up Magglio Ordonez as the tying run.  Wilhelm refuses to come out, and Ordonez lines softly to injury replacement Billy Klaus at 2b and the Orioles and Wilhelm hang on for the 5-3 win.

The 2014 Braves were the #3 seed in the group despite a mediocre 79-83 record, as they had some offensive weapons with Justin Upton getting some MVP votes, a strong pen with Craig Kimbrel getting Cy Young votes, and a decent rotation with Alex Wood (11-11, 2.78) a solid first round starter.  They faced the 2020 Diamondbacks, who limped to a 25-25 record in the pandemic season, and the lack of ABs and resulting lack of depth caused by the short season were exacerbated as they traded away their starting CF midseason.  That left them with one primary weapon, Kole Calhoun who finished 3rd in the NL in homers, but fortunately for them their highest IP starter, Zac Gallen (3-2, 2.75), was also their best, as he received some Cy Young votes himself.  The Dbacks get a run in the bottom of the 1st on a fielder’s choice set up by a Calhoun single, and it takes until the 5th for the Braves to respond, with an RBI single from Jason Heyward followed by a run-scoring double from Justin Upton, but the Justin/Heyward scoring combo is disrupted when the 1-15 guitarist is thrown out at the plate trying to score.  Now holding a 2-1 lead, Atlanta loses confidence in Wood when he allows a single and a walk to begin the 6th, so they move early to supercloser Kimbrel, but he isn’t too super as he walks two to allow one run, and then David Peralta gets his third hit of the game with a squib single that puts the Dbacks ahead once again, although at least Kimbrel whiffs Calhoun with the bases loaded for the third out of the inning.   A walk in the 8th to defensive replacement Tim Locastro also proves costly for Kimbrel, as Locastro steals second and scores on a 2-out single from Nick Ahmed for an insurance run.  From there, it’s Gallen against the bottom of the Braves order with no pinch hitting worth mentioning on the bench, and he’s up to the task as he closes out a 5-hitter and a 4-2 win.

The survivors

The top-seeded 2002 Mariners were the only favorite to win their first round game in this bracket, which should theoretically put them in a good position to take the regional; they were heading into this semifinal at full strength and Joel Pineiro (14-7, 3.24) was a solid #2 starter.  They would face the #4 seed 1989 Pirates, who elected to go with John Smiley (12-8, 2.81) who had a very nice card himself, aside from some gopher ball issues.  In the top of the 1st Edgar Martinez, who had narrowly avoid his 3-9 injury roll twice in the first round, rolls it immediately in the second game and he’s out for 6 games. The M’s then lose SS Carlos Guillen for 3 games in the 2nd inning, and the call goes out for additional players and hospital beds.  Both pitchers do well until Piniero loses control in the bottom of the 5th, with four walks–two with the bases loaded–provides the Pirates with a lead.  Piniero allows only two hits through 7 innings, but in the 8th a double by Barry Bonds and the Mariners bring in closer Kazuhiro Sasaki in desperation.  However, Mike Lavalliere delivers a 2-out RBI single and that gives a dominating Smiley a three-run lead to begin the 9th.  He whiffs Mike Cameron, but John Olerud then singles for only the second hit of the game for Seattle, and when injury replacement Mark McLemore walks the Pirates decide to move away from Smiley’s HR issues for Bill Landrum and his 1.67 ERA.  Landrum makes one pitch, and Bret Boone hits into the double play to end the game and end Seattle’s chances as the Pirates move to the finals with the 3-0 shutout. 

Two winners of first round upsets would meet in this semifinal; the 1959 Orioles had ridden the knuckles of the league ERA title to a first round win, but their rotation was deep and Billy O’Dell (10-12, 2.94) sported a nice-looking card.   The 2020 Diamondbacks had no such luck, as with limited action in the pandemic year they were forced to go in strict order of IP, meaning that Alex Young (2-4, 5.44) would take the mound with an ERA nearly double that of O’Dell.  The O’s take a lead in the top of the 1st when Walt Dropo dashes home on a passed ball by C-3 Carson Kelly, and Dropo’s next time up in the 3rd he adds an RBI double to his contributions, and scores on a Bob Nieman single that makes it 3-0 Orioles.  However, Eduardo Escobar leads off the bottom of the 3rd with a homer off O’Dell’s split to narrow the gap, but in the 7th PH Tim Locastro misses that 1-14 split and gets stranded at third.  A leadoff single by Gene Woodling in the 8th and the Dbacks seek to keep it close with Riley Smith’s 1.47 ERA out of the pen, and he quickly records a DP ball and a strikeout to perform his job.  The Arizona offense then begins to do theirs, as Christian Walker knocks a single and 1-15 Nick Ahmed beats the throw home to make it a one-run game.  Smith holds in the top of the 9th, and Baltimore pretty much removes their remaining offense for defensive replacements to begin the bottom of the 9th, praying the game doesn’t go to extra innings.  O’Dell walks Kelly to begin the 9th, but then gets two quick outs to face PH Wyatt Mathisen; he rips a sharp grounder to SS-3 Chico Carrasquel, but as he notes the split die “been berry good to heem” and that’s three outs and the Orioles pull off their second straight upset with a 3-2 win that sends them to the finals. 

Neither finalist in the bracket had been predicted either by myself or by the ELO ratings, with the #4 seed 1989 Pirates and the #7 seed 1959 Orioles showing their survival skills in getting this far.  The Orioles would be coming in at full strength, with a bullpen that had not seen action yet in the regional and the dubious reward of a return from the DL by .217 hitting 2B Billy Gardner.  They would have a solid Jerry Walker (11-10, 2.92) getting the start, while the Pirates countered with Neal Heaton (6-7, 3.05).  Gus Triandos leads off the bottom of the 2nd with a towering home run to start the scoring, but the Bucs counter with three straight singles to lead off the 4th, the last one being an RBI single from Gary Redus that ties the game.  In the 5th Brooks Robinson finds and converts Heaton’s HR 1-9 split, and then in the 7th a 2-base error by Pirates SS-4 Jay Bell sets up a run-scoring single from the maligned Gardner, and after allowing another hit Heaton is pulled for round two savior Bill Landrum.  However, Bell drops another one for his second error of the inning and Landrum walks Bob Nieman with the bases loaded to extend the Baltimore lead.  From there it’s all Walker, who wraps up a 4-hit complete game for the 4-1 win and the Orioles take the regional for only the 5th time for a Baltimore team, and by far the earliest version of the O’s to do so.  This version did it with a strong starting rotation, with three complete games in which they averaged two runs allowed.  

Interesting card of Regional #201:  The year is 1998 and everyone is watching Sosa and McGwire in hot pursuit of Roger Maris, but this guy had a better OPS than either one of them.  Okay, so Craig Wilson only had 47 ABs in his first appearances as a 27-year old rookie, but he made the most of them as a hometown hero for the White Sox, as he went to high school in the landing pattern for O’Hare Airport.  After a number of years in the Sox organization with more modest batting averages and little power, Craig finally got his shot and obviously impressed the parent club, as he remained in the majors for the entire 1999 season but could only manage a batting average half of what he posted the previous season.  He spent most of 2000 in the minors and that was the end of his career in the bigs.  But he earned his place in the record books with this performance:  The all-time record for “qualifying” batting average in one season is .440 by Hugh Duffy for the 1894 Boston Beaneaters, but Wilson’s 22 hits in 47 ABs gives him the record for the most hits in a season by any player hitting better than Duffy.

 

The Endless Single Elimination Tournament after Regional #200:   Having completed 200 regionals means that 1,600 different teams have taken their shot in the tournament over a 40+ year period.  By my calculations I still have a little more than 400 teams in my collection that have not yet played, at least until new seasons are released.  In recognition of this dubious accomplishment, I have collated the "historical documents" of this project up to this point into a single PDF document, which enables any interested reader (a group almost certainly limited to a highly select few) to search for information about the fate of their favorite teams or players.   Since anyone reading this has to be somewhat of a numbers buff, here are some stats: the volume is 785 pages long and contains 400,380 words, which is longer than Charles Dickens longest work, Bleak House (360,947 words), Dostoyevsky’s The Brothers Karamazov (364,153) and all seven volumes of C.S. Lewis’s The Chronicles of Narnia combined (345,535).  I am creeping up on Gone with the Wind (418,053) but am still well behind Leo Tolstoy’s War and Peace (561,304), although I just might catch old Leo the Lip before it’s over.  However, I am confident that my words-to-readers ratio is far higher than any of those authors, suggesting that perhaps I need to find other things to do.   At any rate, the 200th Regional edition is available for inspection or download at the link below; hope someone enjoys it!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mAydtxYmauFxpeD2j8P0rCBvYPXMQny9/view?usp=sharing

The ELO ratings and regional winners:  Now that 200 regionals in the endless single elimination tournament are under my belt, with 1,600 different teams participating, there is a decent sample to examine whether ELO ratings for the history of MLB can provide any indication of who will win a regional in this crazy single-elimination tournament.  So far, the answer seems to be:  kind of.  As shown in the chart, the modal ELO seeding for the regional winner is indeed the top seed, but that favorite only wins 22.5% of the time, better than the 12.5% we’d see if winners were entirely random but certainly not a sure thing.  If your team is in the top half of entries in the regional, you’re more than twice as likely to win as if you’re in the bottom half, but for some reason #2 seeds just don’t do very well.  However, the squads that fare most poorly are the #7 seeded out of the eight teams–the worst ELO-rated team in these groups wins the regional nearly twice as often as the second-worst.  The #4 seeds have been strangely successful for reasons that elude me; in this tournament, the actual pairings are entirely random rather than being based upon seeding such as is done in, for example, the NCAA basketball tournament.  If the pairings had been based on seedings with #1 always playing #8 in the first round and so forth, things might have gone differently.  However, when I started this tournament in 1980, Arpad Elo had only published his book on his rating system (for chess players) two years previously, so his system wasn’t comprehensively applied to baseball until several years after my first tournament games were played!  A final note:  the source that I’ve relied upon for MLB ELO ratings was bought out by Disney, which resulted in mass layoffs and resignations and as such they discontinued their ELO computations after June 14, 2023.  Unless an alternate source fills this breach, it presents a challenge for seeding any tournament teams for the 2023 season forward, so I had better hurry up and finish playing all 2000+ teams that I currently have before Strat prints any more!

REGIONAL #200:  The draw for the bicentennial regional in the tournament was a Royal affair, with three different Kansas City representatives from the 21st century in the lineup.  Unfortunately, none of them were the pennant winners they had put together in 2014-15, but the team immediately following those two was here, and another squad three years before that run was also included.  There was a Mets team a few years before the infamous bad guys of ‘86, a Twins squad that had won regionals from the season before and the season after, and a White Sox team that was possibly competitive but probably jinxed, with maybe their Cubs counterpart entry having a better chance of getting lucky.  With three entries, it was hard not to guess that a Royals team would win it, and I went with the 2016 version that followed two straight pennants as the favorite; the bottom half of the group felt much weaker to me, but I guessed that the Cubs would get to the finals and end up playing all three Royals teams in the process.   The ELO ratings indicated that I had overestimated nearly every team, with a Rays squad that I had entirely overlooked appearing to be miles better than the remaining collection of dross that were participating.

First round action

The first round one game was between two teams characterized as terrible by their ELO ratings, although both would be making postseason appearances within a few years.  The 1983 Mets lost 94 games to finish with the worst record in the NL, although they had the Rookie of the Year in Darryl Strawberry and a still-effective Tom Seaver (9-14, 3.55) on the mound.  They faced the 62-100 2018 White Sox, who wouldn’t need my jinx to be bad, with a lineup where more than half the hitters couldn’t muster a .300 OBP and Reynoldo Lopez (7-10, 3.91) a relative bright spot in a dim rotation.  The Mets get on the board in the top of the 1st when Brian Giles walks, steals second on C-4 Omar Narvaez, and scores on a Keith Hernandez double; the 1-14 Hernandez then dashes home on a single by 39 year old DH Rusty Staub and it’s a quick 2-0 Mets lead.  In the bottom of the inning, Tim Anderson singles and then tries to steal on Mets C-4 Ron Hodges, but ump Harry Wendelstedt calls him out, and when Anderson argues, Wendelstedt decks him with one punch.  However, in the bottom of the 2nd Narvaez gets even by finding and converting Tom Terrific’s HR split for a 2-run shot that ties the game, but the ROY Strawberry shows his stuff with a tape measure blast to lead off the 4th and later in the inning Bob Bailor contributes a 2-run single and the Mets regain a solid lead.  When Giles leads off the 5th with yet another double off Lopez’s card, the Sox bring in Juan Minaya in the hopes he’s related to the Mets GM and they’ll go easy on him, and he does retire the side without incident.  In the bottom of the 5th, Nicky Delmonico steaks a claim as a power hitter with a leadoff homer, although Yoan Moncada then misses Seaver’s HR split so the Mets lead remains at two.  Minaya then gets tagged for three hard singles in the 6th and the Mets lead extends to 6-3, and that’s how it ends as Seaver completes the game with three hitless innings to send the Mets to the semifinals and another Sox team back to the storage drawers.

The first of three KC teams, and supposedly the best, were the 2016 Royals, who were coming off two straight AL pennants but had dropped to an 81-81 record.  Although they had many of the same names on the roster and were still strong defensively, they had declined on offense as well as in their starting pitching, although Danny Duffy (12-3, 3.51) had a career year.  They faced the 2018 Twins, whose 78-84 record was good for 2nd place in the bad AL Central that had included the dismal White Sox from the previous game.  Although their record was mediocre, the Twins from the season before and the season after had both won their regionals and the team had decent hitting, fielding, and a shallow but not terrible rotation with Jose Berrios (12-11, 3.84) getting the start.  Duffy starts off throwing three perfect innings with 4 strikeouts, but then he blows out his arm getting the last out of the 3rd and he’s out of the game and will miss at least one more start, so Brian Flynn comes in to take over.  Flynn immediately allows a single to Jorge Polanco to begin the 4th, and then Eduardo Escobar doubles and Polanco races home to put the Twins up.  However, in the top of the 6th Paulo Orlando doubles and then Twins SS-3 Polanco throws the ball in the dugout for a two base error; Salvadore Perez singles and another unearned run scores as the Royals go up 2-1.  Cheslor Cuthbert finds and converts Berrios’s HR split to lead off the 7th to provide insurance, and after a two out single by Orlando the Twins decide they have seen enough and move to Taylor Rogers out of the pen, who gets the third out without damage.  Meanwhile, Flynn holds his own for his maximum four innings and turns the ball over to KC closer Wade Davis to begin the 8th, but he’s not particularly sharp and a walk and a Joe Mauer single sets up a run-scoring fielder’s choice by Escobar and it’s a one run game heading into the 9th.   Rogers does his job in the top of the frame, while in the bottom of the 9th Davis gets an out but then Willians Astudillo singles, Byron Buxton comes in to pinch run, and Max Kepler doubles to put the tying and winning run in scoring position with one out.  In comes the KC infield with Brian Dozier at bat, and he hits a grounder and Buxton dashes for home but is easily tagged out by Perez.  DH Robbie Grossman then draws a walk after a long at bat and loads the bases with two outs for Polanco and the top of the Twins order.  He hits a deep fly to center, but CF-1 Lorenzo Cain gets a magnificent jump on the ball and hauls it in and the Royals survive a 3-2 win with a sloppy save by Davis sending them to the semifinals.  

The 2012 Rays won 90 games and were the top ELO seed in the bracket, and although they had a strong rotation topped by Cy Young Award winner David Price (20-5, 2.56), they weren’t very impressive offensively with more than half of their lineup below .300 OBP.  Nonetheless, they were still big favorites over the 2011 Royals, who lost 91 games but were still not the worst of the three KC entries in the regional.  These Royals pinned their hopes on Melky Cabrera and Alex Gordon for runs, but after Bruce Chen (12-8, 3.77) their rotation went downhill quickly.  The Rays strike first when BJ Upton leads off the top of the 2nd with a deep homer, and Chen then loses composure with two straight walks followed by an error by C-4 Brayan Pena that loads the bases.  A visit to the mound and Chen pulls it together for three straight strikeouts that keeps the damage to a minimum, which allows the Royals to take the lead in the 3rd on a 2-out double by Jeff Francoeur followed by an Eric Hosmer RBI single.  The Francouer/Hosmer tandem strikes again in the 5th with another double/RBI single sequence that makes it 4-1 KC; however, when Evan Longoria leads off the 8th with a single the Royals order a Tim Collins from the bullpen, and the first thing he serves up is a two-run homer to Upton and it’s a one run game.  The Royals respond in the bottom of the inning with a double from young backup catcher Salvadore Perez, and when Chris Getz walks the Rays decide the Price isn’t right, and bring in Fernando Rodney and his 0.60 ERA, and he immediately gets the DP ball from Cabrera to quell the threat.  That brings up the top of the Rays order in the top of the 9th for their last chance, and Collins now looks sharp as he sets them down in order to preserve the 4-3 win as this version of the Royals knocks out the regional favorite.  

The 2006 Royals were rated as the worst of the three KC entries in this bracket, losing 100 games and combining a lineup whose leading HR hitter had 18 with a rotation that had nobody with an ERA under 5.00, with swingman Luke Hudson (7-6, 5.12) coming the closest.  However, the 1997 Cubs were no great shakes either, losing 94 games despite having some names like Sammy Sosa, Ryne Sandberg, and Mark Grace, with noted Strat player Doug Glanville batting leadoff, earning a 1 in leftfield (but only a -1 arm, not the -3 arm I heard him claim he merited on one of his recent broadcasts); Mark Clark (14-8, 3.82) fronted a rotation that was beginning to hurt from the steroid era.  Back to back doubles by Reggie Sanders and Doug Mientkeiwicz to lead off the bottom of the 2nd put the Royals up by a run, and then an RBI triple by Emil Brown in the 3rd extends their lead to 2-0.  A two-run homer by David Dejesus off Clark’s card in the 5th provides additional insurance, and when Cubs CF-3 Lance Johnson misplays a Reggie Sanders single into a run-scoring error the Cubs park Clark and summon Marc Pisciotta.  Mientkeiwicz then gets injured for the Royals, at least insuring that I won’t have to type his name for another 10 games, but Mark Grudzielanek then singles in Sanders to continue challenging  my typing skills.  Meanwhile, Hudson takes a two-hitter into the top of the 9th, but then Johnson leads off with a single and Sosa blasts a 2-run shot and the Cubs make it more interesting.  However, Hudson then dispatches three straight Cubs and the Royals complete a first round sweep with the 6-2 win, with all three KC entries advancing to the semifinals.

The survivors

The Zoom game of the week was the semifinal between the 1983 Mets and the 2016 Royals, and long-suffering Mets fan Frank took a break from fishing and assumed the helm of the Mets, seeking revenge for the 2015 Series pasting inflicted on the Mets by the predecessor to this Royals team.  With nobody on the call having a stake in KC, I managed the Royals since I had blindly picked them to win the regional.  Starting for the Mets would be Walt Terrell (8-8, 3.57), who I pointed out had been nicknamed Walt Terrible in a league from my younger days, while Ian Kennedy (11-11, 3.68) was on the mound for KC.  Both pitchers start the game in fine form, and nothing happens until in the 4th when Frank bemoans the contract given to George Foster, who promptly deposits the ball in the Kauffman Stadium fountains for a solo shot and the lead.  In the 6th, Kennedy doesn’t help his own cause by committing an error on a Mookie Wilson grounder that scores another run for the Mets, and from there Walt is anything but terrible, taking a three-hitter into the bottom of the 9th.  However, the Royals begin their last chance with two straight singles, and even though Terrell is still tossing a shutout Frank goes to the pen for closer Jesse Orosco, who is flawless in setting down three straight Royals to preserve the win and the blanking that sends the Mets to the finals with the 2-0 win. 

This semifinal was a matchup of two bad KC teams, the #7 seeded 2006 Royals and the 2011 Royals, who managed to be a #4 seed in this weak bracket despite losing 91 games, with little overlap on the rosters of the two teams.  The remaining rotation for the 2006’s was wretched, with Scott Elarton (4-9, 5.34) combining bad control with gopher ball issues, while 2011’s Luke Hochevar (11-11, 4.68) was eminently hittable himself.   The 2011’s get off to a fast start in the top of the 1st with a Melky Cabrera double that sets up an RBI single from Alex Gordon, but the 2006’s match that sequence in the bottom of the inning with Joey Gathright and David Dejesus as the protagonists.  In the top of the 2nd, an error by 3B-3 Mark Teahen sets up a sac fly by 2011 catcher Brayan Pena to put them back on top, and in the 3rd a two-out RBI single from Billy Butler precedes a 3-run blast from Mike Moustakas off Elarton’s card and the 2011s take a commanding 6-1 lead.  The 2006s get a run back in the bottom of the inning on a 2-out RBI double from Teahen, but Moustakas once again finds Elarton’s solid HR result to lead off the 6th and the 2006s reach into their terrible bullpen for Joe Nelson as the best option.  He holds, and in the bottom of the 8th the 2006s begin the inning with a walk and two singles to load the bases with nobody out, and the 2011 team reluctantly pulls Hochevar for Greg Holland and his 1.80 ERA.  He strikes out two in a row, but then walks Reggie Sanders for a run, and then Mark Grudzielanek rolls a DO 1-10/flyB result on Holland–and misses the split, keeping the 2011s comfortably in front.  Having dodged the threat, they then preserve Holland, bringing in Blake Wood to finish the 9th without incident and the 2011 version of the Royals wins 7-3 to earn an appearance in the finals.   

The last time the Mets were in the World Series (2015), they were quickly vanquished by the Royals, but in this bracket the #6 seeded 1983 Mets were able to avenge themselves against a similar Royals team in the semifinals, and now they get the chance for a daily double against the #4 seed 2011 Royals for the regional title.  With both teams losing 90+ games, the back end of the rotation for both teams was an adventure and both felt their best chances were with their swingmen; the Royals went with Felipe Paulino (4-10, 4.46) while the Mets pinned their hopes on Scott Holman (1-7, 3.74).  In the top of the 2nd Paulino walks the bases loaded, and then with two outs Mookie Wilson delivers the first hit of the inning, a 2-run single to put the Mets ahead.  In the bottom of the inning Jeff Francouer leads off by getting injured, and you can feel the air going out of Kauffman Stadium, but in the 4th his replacement Mitch Maier knocks an RBI double off Holman’s card and then he scores on a Billy Butler double and the game is tied.  Then, Chris Getz getz lucky in the 5th by converting Holman’s HR 1-6/flyB split for a 2-run shot and the crowd is moving plenty of air.  The Mets respond in the top of the 6th with a solo shot from Strawberry that makes it a one-run game, but in the 7th Alex Gordon provides insurance with a 2-run homer that barely clears the wall.  It thus comes down to Paulino in the 9th, and he gets three in row, with PH Dave Kingman’s 1-10 missing his 1-11 and 1-12 homers for the final out to wrap up a 3-hitter, a 6-3 win, and the 8th regional win for the Royals franchise.  How this team did it is kind of a mystery, as this wasn’t a case of a team playing way over their heads; in the three games, their offense was balanced but not overwhelming, the starting pitching was adequate, and their deep bullpen was not dominant but good enough when needed.

Interesting card of Regional #200:  Having played the Old Timers set quite a bit, the card for the backup catcher of the 1906 Cubs, Tom Walsh, is kind of legendary as it was the first Strat card I ever saw for someone with a .000 batting average.  However, Walsh only had one at bat, so he never really had much chance to bring that average up.  Now consider the very first Strat card for Stephen Vogt, who made the Rays roster out of spring training in 2012 as a 27-year old rookie.  If you’re a rookie who is that old, you’d better come roaring out of the gate to impress the big league club, but Vogt didn’t quite do that, going 0 for 13 and quickly being sent to the minors; brought up for a cup of coffee at the end of the season, he went another twelve at bats without a hit to end up with an .000 batting average in 25 at bats.  I dug around, but I can’t find another position player in baseball history who had more AB in a season and still managed to hit .000, and I certainly don’t remember seeing another such season on a Strat card (although Chris Davis did once manage to go 54 AB in a row without a hit, Davis did succeed in batting above .000 for the season, albeit not by much).  Not surprisingly, the Rays gave up on Vogt after the season and they offloaded him to Oakland–where he actually made the AL All-Star team two years in a row, and he continued to play in the bigs until last season.  That may explain the nickname that BBR indicates for him, which is apparently “I Believe”; but personally, I don’t believe I’d give this card many batting opportunities if I could avoid it.

REGIONAL #199:   This draw included a variety of what appeared to me as rather nondescript teams.  The one that attracted my attention most was a Cardinals team that had won the NL the prior season and would do so again the following season, so I was pretty certain that they were a quality squad.  There was a Rangers team that came a few seasons after their brief burst of pennants in early 2010s; aside from that, I was probably most familiar with an Astros squad that was in serious decline after their 2005 pennant and a Yankees team from the 80s from a few years after I had managed them to mediocrity in a straight replay league.  I didn’t think any of the entries would be terrible and that any one of them could win, but I thought the Cards could handle this batch and defeat the Yanks in the finals.   For the first time in a while, the ELO rankings agreed with me, although they suggested that the Yanks might be even stronger than I remembered.

First round action

The #3 seed 2015 Rangers had won a pennant four seasons earlier while the #7 seeded 2010 Astros had done so five seasons previously, but the ELO seedings indicated that the Rangers had aged more gracefully.  Indeed, the Rangers won the AL West with 88 wins but were knocked out in the ALDS, probably because their solid offense couldn’t compensate for a thin rotation topped by Yovani Gallardo (13-11, 3.42).  However, the postseason was a distant memory for their opponents in this Lone Star Showdown, as the 86-loss Astros had little besides Hunter Pence’s long socks and Brett Myers (14-8, 3.14) who received Cy Young votes for having a winning record with this group.  However, I should mention that I saw this Astros team live several times for Wednesday day games, and they had an uncanny knack of winning nearly all of them.  Thus, I wasn’t surprised when they jump out to a 2-0 lead in the 3rd on a squib RBI single from Chris Johnson that followed a double from Jeff Keppinger that scored one and should have scored two except 1-17 Michael Bourn was cut down at the plate.   The Rangers get a run on their first hit of the game in the 6th, an RBI single from Rougned Odor that makes it a one-run game, and when Astros replacement SS Angel Sanchez singles to lead off the 7th the Rangers try to stay in the game with Sam Dyson and his 1.15 ERA out of the pen.  But he allows a single to AA Michael Bourn with Sanchez taking the extra base to third, clearing the way for Bourn to steal second successfully.  Dyson gets one out but then Johnson pokes an RBI single, followed by a double from Jason Michaels off Dyson’s card that scores another; with runners on 2nd and 3rd Dyson takes out Lance Berkman for the third out but the Astros lead 4-1.  In the bottom of the 8th the Rangers get a single from Delino Deshields followed by a double from Shin-Soo Choo, and the Astros eye their pen but opt to stick with their ace, and Mitch Moreland squibs a single that scores a run and puts the tying run aboard.  Odor’s sac fly makes it a one-run game, and a base hit by Prince Fielder convinces Houston that they have a problem, so Brandon Lyon comes out of the pen to induce a grounder from Adrian Beltre that 1B-3 Berkman makes a nice play on to retire the side.  Lyon then sets the Rangers down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the 9th and the Astros hold on for the 4-3 win and move on.  

Both I and the ELO rankings selected the 2012 Cardinals as the bracket favorites, as they’d won the pennant the season before and would win it again the season after, and they almost won it this season coming out of a wild card spot to take the NLCS to seven games.  With Yadier Molina 4th in the MVP ballots and three other Cardinal position players receiving votes, they had a solid offense and rotation, and Kyle Lohse (16-3, 2.86) got some Cy Young support as well.  They were thus favored over a mediocre 79-83 1963 Indians team that had a rather punchless lineup but solid rotation, with Pedro Ramos (9-8, 3.11) getting the round one start.  However, Ramos has some gopher ball issues, and Jon Jay demonstrates that leading off the bottom of the 1st with a pitcher’s card HR for a quick 1-0 Cards lead.  Jay hits into a run-scoring DP in the 4th to add to the lead, and a Matt Carpenter sac fly in the 6th makes it 3-0 Cards.  Meanwhile, the Indians are stymied by Lohse, who holds them hitless for the final five innings and finishes with the three-hit shutout as the Cards manage a 3-0 win while only collecting five hits themselves.

This was the least-anticipated of the regional’s first round games, a matchup of the 5th seeded 2011 Nationals and the bottom seed, the 1993 Padres.   The Nationals were at least mediocre, with an 80-81 record, a decent defense, Mike Morse getting a few MVP votes, and Jordan Zimmerman (8-11, 3.18) pitching better than his record might indicate.  The 1993 Padres were just bad, losing 101 games and that includes those played before they dumped two of their best hitters (Fred McGriff and Gary Sheffield) and their best starter (Greg Harris) midseason, and as was tradition for Strat those players were carded only with the team they ended the season with–meaning that it would be Tony Gwynn and the eight dwarves, with Andy Benes (15-15, 3.78) by far the best remaining in the rotation.  The Nats waste no time, climbing out to a lead in the top of the 1st on a Laynce Nix 3-run homer, but both pitchers then settle down.  In the bottom of the 6th the Padres put together a rally, and a Jeff Gardner double drives in a run and puts runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out and Gwynn at the plate; Washington decides to stick with Zimmerman and Gwynn drives it into the gap for a game-tying double.  Converted pitcher CF-2 Rick Ankiel then can’t reach a Phil Clark liner and Gwynn scores for a Padre lead, although Zimmerman finally does whiff supersub PH Dave Staton to end the inning.  When Archi Cianfrocco misses a HR split and doubles in the 7th, the Nationals move to closer Drew Storen to try to stay in the game; he ends the threat with no damage, and Jayson Werth makes him the pitcher of record in the top of the 8th with a 2-run homer for a Nats lead.  But Gwynn and Clark both single in the bottom of the 8th, and a Staton sac fly ties the game entering the 9th.  Both pitchers blow through the 9th, with five of six outs coming on strikeouts, and the game heads to extra innings.  Benes retires the side in the top of the 10th for his final inning of eligibility, and after Storen walks Gardner the Nats move to Tyler Clippard, who is hard to hit but longball-prone, and sure enough the first roll for Phil Plantier is a 4-5, solid HR on Clippard and the Padres record a 7-5 walkoff upset that I should have known was coming.

The 1984 Yankees went 87-75, but the ELO rating had them as the second best team in the majors that season, with Don Mattingly and Dave Winfield finishing in the top eight of the MVP voting and Phil Niekro (16-8, 3.09) having a remarkable season for a 45 year old–in fact, I saw him toss a shutout in person that year, taking my father-in-law (who would pass away that fall) to his first Yankees game.   However, they had their work cut out for them in facing the #4 seed 1991 Rangers, who had a similar 85-77 record and who had a killer card from Nolan Ryan (12-6, 2.91) in front of a lineup that for the most part could hit but couldn’t field.  In the bottom of the second, an error by Rangers 2B-4 Julio Franco and two Ryan walks set up a run-scoring grounder by Omar Moreno; Willie Randolph then knocks a 2-out single with runners on 2nd and 3rd, but only one scores as 1-14+2 Toby Harrah is cut down at the plate.   In the 5th, it’s Niekro whose defense lets him down as a double past LF-4 Don Baylor followed by a Rafael Palmiero single past SS-3 Bobby Meacham makes it a one-run game, but the Yankees get the run back on an RBI double from Mattingly in the bottom of the inning.  When the Rangers get a leadoff single and a walk to begin the 8th, the Yanks decide it’s time for Dave Righetti, and he proceeds to retire six straight Rangers to earn the save and propel the Yankees to the semifinals with the tightly pitched 3-1 win, with Ryan striking out nine in the loss.

The survivors

The #7 seed 2010 Astros pulled off an upset in round one, and they pinned their semifinal hopes on Wandy Rodriguez (11-12, 3.60) against the top seeded 2012 Cardinals and Adam Wainwright (14-13, 3.94).   Michael Bourn leads off the game with a triple, and scores on a 2-out single from Hunter Pence to illustrate the Bourn Identity.  However, three straight singles to start off the bottom of the 3rd, followed by an Allen Craig sac fly, and the Cards take a 2-1 lead.  That doesn’t last long, as in the top of the 4th Humberto Quintero finds and converts Wainwright’s HR split for a two run homer and both teams seem locked in on the other pitcher’s weaknesses.  In the bottom of the inning, Houston displays another of their weaknesses as 3B-5 Chris Johnson muffs a grounder that sets up a game-tying sac fly from Rafael Furcal.  When the Cards begin the 6th with a single and a Carlos Beltran double that puts runners on 2nd and 3rd, the Astros bring in the infield and Nelson Figueroa from the pen, and although he fans David Freece, PH Pete Kozma nails Figueroa’s HR split for a 3-run shot.  A leadoff double by Matt Holliday in the 8th and Figueroa is pulled for closer Brandon Lyon, and he prevents any damage so the Cards stay three runs up to begin the 9th.  Wainwright gets two straight outs after having not allowed any hits in the previous four innings, but then he’s touched for a pair of two-out singles to bring up Bourn and the top of the order as the tying run at the plate, but there is no Bourn Supremacy as Wainwright strikes him out to send the Cards to the finals with the 6-3 victory.

The 1993 Padres were ranked as the worst team in the regional, but they squeaked by in the first round with an extra-inning win, and now they faced the #2 seeded 1984 Yankees with swingman Wally Whitehurst (4-7, 3.83), while the Yanks were going with Ray Fontenot (8-9, 3.61), whose card included quite a few hits, but all of them were singles.  The Yankees strike first when Omar Moreno leads off the bottom of the 3rd with a double, and races home on a single from Willie Randolph, and after a single from Don Mattingly Randolph scores when Padres 2B-4 Jeff Gardner can’t complete the DP on a Winfield grounder.  Archi Cianfrocco wraps one around the foul pole in the top of the 6th for a solo shot that makes it a one-run game, but Whitehurst walks the first two Yankee batters in the bottom of the inning so San Diego turns to reliever Pedro A. Martinez, not to be confused with Pedro The Martinez.  Martinez does issue a walk to load the bases, but gets out of it unscathed, and then Fontenot walks the first two Padre batters in the bottom of the inning, but here it’s Tony Gwynn smacking his third hit of the game, an RBI single that ties it up, and then a passed ball by C-2 Butch Wynegar and the Padres take the lead for the first time in the game.  In the bottom of the 8th the Padres go all in with replacements to shore up their terrible defense, managing to get four 4’s off the field, and they retire the Yanks quietly.  In the top of the 9th the Padres get two straight singles, including one by .116-hitting defensive replacement Luis Lopez who has no hits on his card, and it’s Righetti time and he keeps it a one-run deficit for the Yankees heading into the bottom of the 9th, with the top of the order up.  The Padres are sticking with the effective Martinez through his last inning of eligibility, and although Randolph leads off with a double, Martinez mows the rest down and the upstart Padres head to the finals with a 3-2 win.  

This final was a matchup of the top and bottom-seeded teams in the regional, and that had only happened twice before in this tournament (regionals 126 and 132):  remarkably, both times the #8 seed had emerged victorious.  Still, the favored 2012 Cardinals were not terribly worried, with Lance Lynn (18-7, 3.78) as a strong #3 starter and being at full health with a completely rested bullpen.  Meanwhile, the 101-loss 1993 Padres were down to Doug Brocail (4-13, 4.56) and their best reliever was burnt, but this team had come from behind twice already in earlier rounds and was ready for adversity.  The Padres escape the top of the 2nd unscathed when 1-12 Matt Holliday is nailed trying to score on a Carlos Beltran double, but another Matt, Carpenter, leads off the 4th with a homer and then Holliday crushes a solo shot later in the inning which is back-to-backed by Beltran for a 3-0 St. Louis lead.  As usual, the Padres wake up when they’re behind, and Tony Gwynn doubles and ultimately scores on a passed ball by C-1 Yadier Molina; Tim Teufel then misses a HR 1-17/TR but then scores on an error by 3B-4 David Freese and it’s a one-run game.  When Phil Plantier opens the bottom of the 6th with a double off Lynn’s card, St. Louis shows its respect for the Padres’ persistence and goes to the pen for the first time this tournament, bringing in Mitchell Boggs.  He gets two outs, one an injury to Padre supersub Dave Staton, but then Derek Bell swats a two-out single that scores Plantier and the Pads have once again come from behind to tie the game heading into the 7th.  That tie is short-lived, as Freese leads off the 7th by hitting Brocail’s solid HR result for the fourth solo homer of the game for the Cards, so the Padres call upon Trevor Hoffman to keep things close, but PH Pete Kozma doubles and scores on an error by 1B-4 Phil Clark to put St. Louis up by two.  The Cards move to their own relieving Trevor, Rosenthal, to begin the 8th, and he closes things out as St. Louis staves off the pesky Padres for the 5-3 victory and the 11th regional win for the franchise.  This was a team that missed the pennant by one game, Game 7 of the NLCS, that would have made three straight league titles for the Cards; however, they showed in this regional that they could win with their future on the line with strong starting pitching and a balanced offense.

Interesting card of Regional #199:  When I ordered the 2012 season, I apparently sprung for the “bonus” player set (is it really a bonus if we have to pay for it?) that included the individual pitcher hitting cards–I’m not sure why, as I’d rather watch a rain delay than watch pitchers bat.  As I was setting the lineup for the 2012 Cards, I gathered up those pitcher hitting cards to set them aside (since my tournament is all DH) and chuckled at Lance Lynn’s ineptitude; out of curiosity, I flipped it over to see if he at least got beaned or something, and–I see a rather obvious problem.  Intrigued, I then shuffled through the rest of the St. Louis pitcher hitting cards, and they all seemed to have the same problem.  A quick check of a couple of other 2012 NL teams suggested that not all of the pitcher’s hitting cards seemed to be affected, so by now I was really puzzled.  So, I dug around the game company announcement archive (a challenge on their clunky website) and didn't see any postings about card errors for the 2012 season, and a Google search didn’t reveal any mention either.  I’m guessing the problem is as apparent to everyone else as it is to me, and I’m wondering–has this really never been noticed before?

REGIONAL #198:  This group had a number of teams that grabbed my attention, with the most obvious being the 2016 Cubs, the squad that had won the Series to break a decades-spanning stretch of whining by Cubs fans everywhere.  However, it looked like there would be a number of opportunities for the Cubs to come up short in this bracket; there was an Indians team that was between two pennants in ‘95 and ‘97, and as with the last group there were two Phillies teams from eras that had done well in the tournament.  There was also a Blue Jays team a few years past a great era for them, and an Orioles team a few years before a similar dynasty.  I remembered last year’s Rangers team as mediocre, and guessed the ‘59 A’s were essentially a Yankee farm team, so I suspected that they were longshots.  I figured that the Cubs would take the regional just to spite this Sox fan, besting the Jays in the final.  The season-ending ELO rating for the Cubs put them in the top 50 teams of all time, but they also portrayed the ‘96 Indians as the best team in baseball that season, despite not winning the pennant, and just out of the top 100 of all time, potentially setting up a high-stakes semifinal game in which the winner would be favored over the ‘03 version of the Phils in the final.

First round action

The 1963 Orioles were an 86-win team that was beginning to transition to one of the best in history later in the decade and many of the pieces were in place, but the lineup had limited pop and the rotation wasn’t what it would become, although they had a 20-game winner ready to go in Steve Barber (20-13, 2.75).   They faced a steroid-era team that had plenty of power in the 84-win 1999 Blue Jays, with Carlos Delgado and Shawn Green both over 40 homers, and two AA’s in Shannon Stewart and Homer Bush gave them other ways to score.   However, the Jays rotation also bore the scars of the era, with Roy Halladay (8-7, 3.92) the best option but in far from his best season.   And Russ Snyder, the first batter of the game, gets a welcome to the steroid era by blasting a homer off Halladay’s card; a single and two walks loads the bases with nobody out for Al Smith, who hits into a DP but a run does score and the O’s take a quick 2-0 lead.  However, in the bottom of the 3rd the Jays rip four hits and three runs, one a 2-run single from Tony Batista, to take the lead, and in the top of the 4th Baltimore loses 2B Jerry Adair for the tournament with an injury.  But John Orsino leads off the top of the 6th by missing a HR 1/DO split, and Boog Powell leaves no double about it with a solid homer result and the Orioles regain the lead, with Brian McRae missing a HR 1-10/flyB split in the bottom of the inning that would have put Toronto back on top.  When the O’s start a 2-out rally in the 7th with a single and a walk, the Jays move to the pen for closer Billy Koch, and he whiffs Orsino to keep things close.   Stewart then leads off the bottom of the inning with a double off Barber’s card and Baltimore also summons their closer, Stu Miller, and he likewise does his job to keep the O’s in the lead entering the 8th.  However, in the bottom of the 8th the Jays get two straight singles off Miller’s card, and then supersub Craig Grebeck comes in to pinch hit; he hits a grounder to injury replacement 2B-3 Bob Johnson, who muffs a ball Adair would have had and the game is tied to begin the 9th.  With no tomorrow for the loser, both teams burn  their closers for the regional, and both hold serve in the 9th to send the game to extra innings.  In the top of the 10th, Jays 1b-2 David Segui begins the inning with a 2-base error, and a rattled Koch then grooves one to Orsino, who launches a two-run shot and the SkyDome is eerily quiet.  However, it comes back to life in the bottom of the inning with a single off Miller’s card followed by a dropped popup by C-4 Orsino; Tony Fernandez then singles for his third hit of the game and the bases are loaded with the winning run at 1st with one away.  Alex Gonzalez comes in to PH, and he hits a deep fly that’s caught, scoring one on the sac fly and it’s a one run game with the tying run in scoring position and two away.  Up comes the top of the order, and Shannon Stewart misses a DO 1-5/SI** split on Miller’s card but it ties the game and sends the winning run to 3rd.  At the plate is Homer Bush; Miller delivers, it’s a grounder to SS-1 Luis Aparicio, and the Hall of Famer boots it to hand the Jays the 7-6 victory on a walkoff error by one of the best fielding shortstops in history.

The 2003 Phillies were hoping to continue the success of the 2005, 2006 and 2008 teams in capturing regional crowns, and this version was competitive with 86 wins placing them as the #3 seed.  They had Jim Thome with 47 homers to finish 4th in the MVP votes, and a rotation that was okay by steroid-era standards with Vincente Padilla (14-12, 3.62) getting the first round start.  They faced a bad 94-loss 2022 Rangers team that I had seen live last year, in which they tossed a one-hitter against my White Sox to demonstrate that my Sox jinx works just as well live as in Strat.  With 40 players carded for the Rangers, you’d think that there would be a few more decent ones, but there wasn’t much to cheer about although Martin Perez (12-8, 2.89) was the AL leader in shutouts—with one.  The game begins ominously for both teams, with the Phils’ Jim Thome thrown out trying to score for the final out of the top of the 1st, and then one of the few decent Rangers, Corey Seager, lost to injury for the tournament in the bottom of the inning.  Philadelphia then gets things rolling in the 2nd with a 2-run homer by Placido Polanco, but Rangers DH Brad Miller responds with a solo shot in the bottom of the 3rd, and then Marcus Semien blasts a 2-run HR in the 4th and the Rangers now hold the lead.  Nathaniel Lowe adds some padding to that lead in the 5th with a run-scoring fielder’s choice, and when Semien leads off the 6th missing a HR 1-13/DO split on Padilla’s card, the Phils in desperation move to Rheal Cormier and his 1.70 ERA.  However, a two-out error by 1B-3 Thome extends the inning and a double by Josh Smith bounces past RF-3 Jason Michaels for another run, and the Phils end their inning on another nailed baserunner in Pat Burrell (1-11+2) in the 7th.  Those outfield assists are all Perez needs as he wraps up a 5-hitter and the Rangers pull off the 5-2 upset for a trip to the semifinals.

The 2016 Cubs won 103 games and the World Series on the basis of a solid lineup led by Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, first and fourth in the MVP voting, a strong bullpen, and perhaps the deepest rotation I’d seen in many regionals with three of their starters receiving Cy Young votes with third-place Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13) leading the league in ERA.  The 1995 Phillies went 69-75 in that strike year and were resting their hopes on a decent defense and their one good starting pitcher, Curt Schilling (7-5, 3.57).  The Cubs lose DH Jorge Soler to a minor injury in the top of the 2nd, and the Phils respond by losing 1B Gregg Jeffries for 8 games to lead off the bottom of the inning and the call goes out for more ambulances.  In the third Bryant misses a HR split but drives in two on the resulting double to give the Cubs the first lead, and then Willson Contreras misses a HR 1-15/DO split to lead off the 4th; Javier Baez singles him home to make it 3-0 Cubs.  However, a 2-out 2-run homer from Jim Eisenreich in the 6th makes it a one run game and Schilling is hanging tough, keeping the Phils in the game, but when injury replacement Tommy LaStella doubles to lead off the top of the 9th, Philly summons Ricky Bottalico to try to keep them in the game.  But a squib single from Addison Russell sets up a sac fly by Dexter Fowler to provide an insurance run, and the Phils see nothing but purple haze from Hendricks in the bottom of the 9th as he closes out a 4-hitter to send the Cubs on with a 4-2 win.

According to the ELO rankings, the 1996 Indians were the best team in baseball that season, winning 99 games and the pennant the year before and the year after, but they lost in the ALDS in ‘96.  They had speed in front of a killer heart of the order in Albert Belle (third in MVP), Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez, but they had some defensive holes and other than Charles Nagy (17-5, 3.41) who finished 4th for the Cy Young, their rotation was mediocre.   The 1959 A’s lost 88 games but had some weapons in Roger Maris, Bob Cerv, and starter Bud Daley (16-13, 3.17), all of whom would soon be bringing their talents to Yankee Stadium.  And it’s not a good start for Nagy in the top of the 1st, as after a leadoff single to Russ Snyder, Nagy turns a DP ball into a 2-base error and then allows a 2-run single to Maris off the pitcher’s card.  Daley then strikes out the first two Indians in the bottom of the inning and the A’s are feeling it, but then Belle doubles and Thome crushes one into the far reaches of the Jake; the hits just keep coming with RBI singles from Seitzer, Alomar, Baerga and Lofton and by the time the Indians finish batting around it’s 6-2 after one.  Back to back doubles by Belle and Thome start the bottom of the 2nd and the A’s decide to send Daley to New York early, hoping that crafty veteran Murray Dickson has something left in him, and sure enough he sets down three straight to prevent further damage.  In fact, he tosses four hitless innings to give the A’s a semblance of a chance, and they pick up a run in the 5th on an RBI single by Jerry Lumpe that gets under SS-2 Vizquel’s glove.  However, after DIckson is burnt not even A’s players like Dick Williams or Whitey Herzog can find anybody else in the bullpen with any ability, so #2 starter Bob Grim is called upon and he does his job; the Indians get only two hits against KC relievers but Nagy handles the A’s and Cleveland heads to a tough semifinal matchup with a 7-3 win.  

The survivors

The #4 seed 1999 Blue Jays had pulled off a dramatic come-from-behind extra inning win in the first round, but in the process they burned their closer for the duration of the regional and it was likely that their steroid-era rotation would need some help, with David Wells (17-10, 4.82) winning more games than his card would suggest.  Even so, they were going against the bottom seed of the bracket, the 2022 Rangers, who would be without one of their best players, Cory Seager, for the rest of the tournament but who did have a decent Jon Gray (7-7, 3.96) available to start.  But it’s Blue over Gray in the 2nd, as a couple of RBI doubles by Darrin Fletcher and Brian McRae along with a 2-out run-scoring single from Shannon Stewart makes it 4-0 Jays, although the AA stealer Stewart ends the inning by getting caught stealing for the second time in two innings.   A pair of RBI singles from Tony Batista and Fletcher add two more in the 3rd, and it could have been worse if Batista hadn’t been nailed at the plate, leading the Jays to think about abandoning the running game.  But Nathaniel Lowe finds and converts Wells HR for a 2-run shot in the bottom of the inning, and a two-out RBI single from Brad Miller in the 4th narrows the Jays lead to three.  The Jays get an insurance run in the 6th when a two-base error by SS-3 Marcus Semien, playing out of position because of the injury to Seager, puts a runner on 3rd who scores courtesy of a two-out wild pitch by Gray, and they record another in the 7th on a two out RBI single from Tony Fernandez.  A leadoff single by Stewart in the 8th and the Rangers can’t take any more of Gray, so Matt Bush gets his turn, and he ends the threat with no damage.   But, it makes no difference as Wells allows only one hit after the 4th inning and completes the 8-3 win to send the Jays to the finals.

The Zoom game of the week turned out to be the marquee matchup of the regional, the semifinal between the top seed 2016 Cubs and the #2 seeded 1996 Indians.  We had Tribe supporter ColavitoFan manning the Indians, while Stratfan Rick managed the Cubs as a neutral party.  The Cubs had an excellent Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44), with not many teams having the luxury of starting the Cy Young runner-up in the second round of the tournament, while Cleveland countered with 37 year old Orel Hershiser (15-9, 4.24) hoping that his big game experience would make the difference.  Unfortunately, there’s no treats for the Bulldog as the Cubs rake him in the top of the 2nd, with a 2-run homer from Addison Russell with additional RBI by Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras leading to an early 4-0 Cubs lead.  When the Cubs add another run in the 5th on a solo shot from Anthony Rizzo, the Tribe has to move past the Orel stage and in comes Eric Plunk, who not only does not bean anybody but tosses three masterful innings.  Meanwhile, Albert Belle puts the Indians on the board in the bottom of the 6th with a colossal homer, and Kenny Lofton drives in another run in the 7th to make it 5-2 and the Jacobs Field faithful are starting to hope that revenge for the 2016 Series might be possible.  But Jose Mesa takes over the late game from Plunk and crushes that hope, loading up the bases for a two-run single by Contreras, and the Indians have no answer as the Cubs win 7-2 to head to the bracket final.  

The World Champion 2016 Cubs had marched to the regional final by easily disposing of a couple of pretty good teams, and it was here in the third round that their outstanding rotation really should begin to shine, with Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10) getting Cy Young votes as the #3 starter, being better than most starters seen in this bracket.  However, the top seeded Cubs also had two players injured and there was pretty much nothing left on their bench.   The #4 seed 1999 Blue Jays were counting on Chris Carpenter (9-8, 4.38) to go deep in the game with their closer burnt, and were encouraged that their offense had showed up nicely in the semifinals.  However, the Cubs waste no time in the top of the 1st, as after Carpenter gets the first two batters out the Cubs rack up four hits and an error by 2B-3 Homer Bush, and it’s 3-0 Cubs before the first Jay steps  into the batter’s box.  The Jays respond in the bottom of the 2nd when Shawn Green doubles past CF-3 Dexter Fowler; he scores on a Darrin Fletcher single and Tony Batista comes in on a fielder’s choice and it’s a one-run game.  Then, in the 3rd Green’s second double of the game scores Bush, and a single from Tony Batista drives in a run but 1-14 Green is cut down at the plate; nonetheless, the upstart Jays now lead 4-3 after three, marking the first time they have been behind in the regional.  They aren’t behind long as Jorge Soler leads off the 4th with a long homer, although Kris Bryant leaves the bases loaded to end the inning with the game still tied.  Another leadoff homer in the 5th, this one by Anthony Rizzo, and the Cubs regain the lead although once again they leave runners in scoring position.  When Brian McRae doubles with two out in the 6th, the Cubs decide that Arrieta just isn’t sharp and for the first time move to their very good bullpen, with Pedro Strop coming in to record the third out.   Bush singles to lead off the bottom of the 7th and immediately steals second, but Strop then strikes out the heart of the Jays order and the Cubs are six outs away.   They move to closer Aroldis Chapman and his 1.01 ERA to begin the 8th, and he blows through the Jays in the 8th and records two quick outs in the 9th.  But the AA stealer Bush, with the game on the line, draws a walk, and challenges C-3 Contreras with a huge lead.  Undaunted, Contreras fires a bullet to second on the steal attempt, burning Bush and it’s Cubs win, Cubs win the regional for the 10th time, with the 2016 team joining the 2017 squad in the victory circle with the 5-4 triumph.  

Interesting card of Regional #198:  Back in my neighborhood league as a kid, I might have been able to hoodwink one of my less-savvy buddies to make a trade for a pitcher with ZERO singles on his card.   Unlikely as that hoodwinking may sound, the Indians did exactly that, making a midseason deal for Swindell in ‘96 in an apparently unsuccessful attempt to bolster their bullpen for a near-miss pennant run.  To me, this card nicely illustrates the difference between Strat, which is designed to simulate the past, and real baseball, where managers and GMs attempt to predict an unknown future.  I get a fair amount of comments about my all-Basic tournament telling me that “Basic isn’t realistic”, but adding additional minutiae to the game to simulate small-sample events (like clutch or even L/R splits in many cases) tends to make managerial decisions LESS realistic, because we have a much better knowledge of the likelihood of outcomes (particularly in those small-sample situations) than the actual managers did.  I can’t imagine the 1996 Indians being very interested in Swindell if they could take a time machine forward to February 1997 to check out this Strat card, but in reality Swindell had a 17-year career and none of his seasons, before OR after this one, were anywhere near this bad.  So when Mike Hargrove selected Swindell to pitch in ‘96, he was basing it on a career with 123 wins, a 3.86 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.   However, having the benefit of hindsight, any sensible Strat manager would bury Swindell deep in the pen and even with strict usage requirements in the service of “realism”, would absorb those almost entirely in mop-up situations.