Wednesday, February 3, 2021

 REGIONAL #89:   This regional included no pennant winners, although the 1969 Tigers had a great Series champion team the prior year and I figured that the 1934 A's probably still had many of the assets from their 1929-1931 dynasty.  In addition to those teams, the regional should include other great names such as Ted Williams and Stan Musial.  Although I didn't expect much threat from the steroid era teams, they tend to overperform, but nonetheless I picked the Tigers over the A's in the final.  The ELO rankings agreed with me on the Tigers being the favorite, but suggested that I was underestimating the 2003 Cubs.

First round action

In setting the lineup for the 1934 A's, I discovered that this team had undergone serious dismantling since its dynasty of only a few years earlier.  Gone were Cochrane, Grove, Simmons, Earnshaw, Bishop and the like; only Jimmie Foxx remained as a significant factor, and he had a great season.  However, with a dreadful starting rotation and few weapons other than Foxx, the team only won 68 games.  The A's faced a modern era team famous for frequent dismantlings, the 2010 Marlins, who won 80 games with several weapons and a starting pitcher, Josh Johnson, who looked like Cy Young compared to anyone on the A's staff.  Nonetheless, a 1st inning 2-run HR by Bob Johnson quickly put the A's up 2-0, but a solo shot by Marlins RF "Mike" Stanton to lead off the 2nd narrows the lead to 2-1--although Stanton is injured and leaves the game in his next plate appearance.  Doc Cramer's RBI single makes it 3-1 A's in the 4th, but Josh Johnson settles down and in the 7th the Marlins finally locate the numerous weaknesses on A's starter Bill Dietrich's card, as he loads the bases with nobody out.  With one run already in, the A's summon George Caster, who induces a double-play grounder, but then grooves one to super pinch-hitter Donnie Murphy who puts it into the stands for a 4-3 Marlins lead.  The Marlins pull Johnson in favor of Clay Hensley after he allows a leadoff single in the 9th, and Hensley retires three in a row to earn the save for the 4-3 Marlins win.  Worthy of note:  After setting the Marlins lineup, as usual I do a quick check of Baseball Reference to see if I'm missing anything, and I discover that rookie Giancarlo Stanton was in RF for the Marlins in 2010.  Shuffling through the team, I find that he's not there, and I panic about a missing card.  Then I look in the lineup that I've already set and notice that this Mike Stanton guy out in RF has the same stats as Giancarlo.....duh.

Not a single single
The 88-win 2003 Cubs won the NL Central and came within one game of a pennant--an NLCS game altered by fan Steve Bartman that added to the persecution complex of Cubs fans everywhere, at least until 2016.  The 2003 squad featured a steroid-era lineup that included poster-boy Sammy Sosa, but also a starting rotation that was remarkably strong for the era, with dominating Kerry Wood getting the start.  They faced another Cubs team of a different vintage, the 1949 Cubs, who only won 61 games but had many of the same players as the Cubs squads who had played over their heads to reach the finals in Regionals #86 and #87, including tabbed starter Bob Rush who had gone 2-0 in those regionals.  The 49ers got off to a quick start when DH Hank Edwards drove in a run with a triple in the bottom of the 1st, but in the top of the 2nd the '03s evened it up when Sosa led off with a solo blast onto Waveland Avenue.  In the 5th, the 03's moved on top when SS Alex Gonzalez hit his first of 2 doubles to drive in Simon and make it 2-1, and Wood was cruising until the 8th.  However, in the bottom of the 8th, Gonzalez turned a leadoff grounder into a 2-base error, and Wood followed that with two walks to load the bases with none out.  Wood fans Roy Smalley, and then it's another tough grounder to SS Gonzalez--and he turns the double play to atone for his earlier error.  Then, in the bottom of the 9th, Gonzales commits another error on a leadoff grounder, Frankie Gustine doubles the runner home, and pinch hitter Phil Cavaretta hits a squib single to make it 1st and 3rd with nobody out.  The 03s bring the infield in to prevent the winning run from scoring, and Emil Verban rolls the gbA+ through the infield to score Gustine, giving the '49 Cubs the 3-2 walk-off win and Bob Rush his third victory of the tournament for the Cubs of this era.

The first round matchup of the 90-win 1969 Tigers and the 87-win 1957 Cardinals involved two 2nd-place teams that were two of the regional's best, according to the ELO rankings. Both squads had numerous weapons throughout the lineup, although the Tigers boasted a much better rotation than the Cards, and the faceoff of 24-game winner Denny McLain vs. Lindy McDaniel clearly favored the Tigers. The Tigers jumped to a quick 2-0 lead in the 1st on a Willie Horton double, and then a bases-loaded single in the 3rd scored another 2 when Cards RF Del Ennis couldn't get to a Don Wert single. However, when Tigers SS Tom Tresh (what was he doing playing short in 1969?) booted a 2-base error to lead of the top of the 4th, McLain came unglued, allowing 4 runs (2 on a Ken Boyer homer--what was he doing playing CF in 1957?) and the game was tied 4-4. A Kaline solo shot in the bottom of the inning put the Tigers back on top 5-4, but McLain can't recover his form, getting mauled in the 6th for 5 runs (including a 3-run blast by Stan Musial) and McLain is yanked with a line of 5.2 IP, 12 HA, 9 RA. Buoyed by the 9-5 lead, McDaniel gets down to business and the Tigers are held scoreless until the bottom of the 9th, when Dick McAuliffe leads off the inning with a solo HR. The Cards eye their solid bullpen, but decide to give McDaniel the chance to close out the game, and he does, with defensive replacement CF Bobby Gene Smith hauling in a deep Horton fly to complete the 9-6 Cardinal win.

This pairing of two 3rd-place teams, the 79-win 1958 Red Sox and the 85-win 2013 Orioles, matched squads with some serious offensive might (e.g., Ted Williams vs. 53-HR hitting Chris Davis) but both had poor starting rotations that probably kept them from reaching the post-season.  Orioles starter Scott Feldman started terribly, allowing a leadoff single in the 1st followed by three consecutive walks, and he was fortunate to escape the inning only down 2-0.  Baltimore C Matt Wieters nailed a solo shot in the 3rd to narrow the gap to 2-1 Boston, but after that both starting pitchers were surprisingly effective.  When Feldman walked the first 2 batters in the top of the 9th, the O's pulled him for Darren O'Day, but a single by Don Budden provided an insurance run so the game goes into the bottom of the 9th with Boston ahead 3-1.  Red Sox starter Frank Sullivan allows a leadoff double to Nick Markakis, and there is activity in the Boston bullpen; with Chris Davis up, the Sox leave Sullivan in pitch to him rather than walking him to put the tying run aboard.  Of course, BOOM, Davis bounces it off the RF warehouse at Camden Yards and the game is tied; Leo Kiely comes in for the Sox and we head to extra innings.  O'Day retires Boston in the top of the 10th; Kiely begins the bottom of the 10th by allowing consecutive doubles to Wieters and replacement 2b Ryan Flaherty, and the Orioles score the walk-off 4-3 win.  Key stat:  Ted Williams records 3 walks and a double that resulted from missing a HR 1-14 split, but the Sox were never able to drive him home.

The survivors

The semifinal between the 2010 Marlins and the 1949 Cubs was a dogfight between two flawed but plucky teams.  Dan Uggla took Cubs starter Monk Dubiel deep for a 2-run homer to put the Marlins up in the top of the 1st, and they added another run when Logan Morrison hit a solo shot (this one off Dubiel's card) in the 2nd.  However, a 2-base error by Marlins CF-2 Cameron Maybin in the bottom of the inning opened the floodgate for a 3-run rally against Marlins' starter Anibal Sanchez, and the game was tied after two.  In the 3rd, Hanley Ramirez finds Dubiel's homer result again to put the Marlins up 4-3, but in the 4th an Emil Verban single with runners on 2nd and 3rd ties it--with the go-ahead run cut down at the plate.  In the 7th, the Cubs examine their bullpen but there is no help there, and sure enough Marlins LF Chris Coghlan finds Dubiel's HR reading for the 3rd time this game, and it's 5-4 Florida.  In the bottom of the 8th, Sanchez walks the first two Cubs and the Marlins summon Clay Hensley for the second game in a row--Hensley then tosses two perfect innings to record his second straight save and the Marlins head to the finals.   The good news for the Marlins is that Stanton will return from injury for the finals; the bad news is that Hensley is burnt and there is nothing but trouble remaining in the Marlins' starting rotation.

The 2013 Orioles had a last second come-from-behind win in the first round, so in battling the 1957 Cardinals they decided to take a different approach, jumping to a quick 2-0 lead in the 2nd on back-to-back solo HRs by Nick Markakis and Chris Davis, and another solo shot by Matt Wieters in the 3rd made it 3-0.  Meanwhile, O's starter Chris Tillman was looking good until the top of the 7th, when Stan Musial and Wally Moon added back-to-back solo shots of their own, and it was 3-2 Orioles with every run scored on a solo homer.  Given the balls flying out of Camden Yard, both teams went to their best relievers in the 8th; Darren O'Day makes his second appearance of the bracket and retires the Cards in order in the top of the 8th, but Billy Muffett gets raked over the coals by the bottom of the Baltimore lineup, and after RBI singles from Hardy, Machado, and Roberts it was now 6-2 O's.  O'Day sets the Cards down quietly in the 9th to earn his second save, and the Orioles move to the finals to face the Marlins, with both franchises each only having one prior regional win.

Defense and offense
The finals for the regional matched two battle-tested teams, the 2010 Marlins and the 2013 Orioles, that both had survived tough games in the first two rounds.   The 2nd inning matched solo HRs from Florida's Jorge Cantu and Baltimore's Danny Valencia, and things remained knotted until the 5th when a Cameron Maybin sac fly made it 2-1 Marlins.  A 2-run shot from Gaby Sanchez in the 6th stretched the lead to 4-1, and Marlins starter Chris Volstad was in control, aided by unexpectedly good defense from the likes of Cantu (3b-5) and Uggla (2b-4).  In the bottom of the 8th, Volstad had to face monster Chris Davis as the tying run with two men aboard, but got Davis to fly out to end the inning.  After going scoreless in the top of the 9th, the Marlins put in whatever defensive replacements they could find to bolster Volstad for the bottom of the 9th, but Volstad led off with a walk and two consecutive singles, and the Marlins had to summon their best remaining reliever, Brian Sanches, to close things out with nobody out and the tying run on 1st.  Sanches fans Manny Machado, and then faces Matt Wieters, the Orioles outstanding defensive catcher who had homered in both previous games.  Here's the pitch: a 6-5 roll, HR 1-17 on Sanches' card--inning, game, regional over.  Wieters 3-run blast gives the Orioles the 5-4 win, a second regional title for the Orioles, and their second walk-off win in three games.  Wieters is the obvious choice for regional MVP, but honorable mention should go to the Orioles collective defense, more than half of whom were "1" fielders and who did not make a single error in the regional to help shore up a shaky starting rotation.


Interesting card of Regional #89
:  This was a tough selection, as I was sorely tempted to put up 2003's Kerry Wood, who didn't have a single SINGLE reading on his formidable card (see above), or 2010 Marlins' Donnie Murphy, whose 2010 card boasted a .705 SLG% in 44 ABs and every result was pretty much either an extra-base hit or a strikeout.  However, it was the 2013 Orioles who won the regional in dramatic style, and so I felt compelled to honor their big bat, Chris Davis.  Because I am an old-school Strat player who greatly prefers the old Basic card patterns, Davis's card is a nearly perfect thing of beauty to me, marred only by that ghastly 2-9 result that is the type of gaping wound found on so many modern hitting cards.  Even so, I still wouldn't mind putting this guy at first on my team.





Sunday, January 24, 2021

 REGIONAL #88:  This regional has some decent teams after a few brackets full of also-rans; it features a slew of Dodgers teams, including one from the year before their 2017 pennant winners and two steroid-era variants.  Also included was an Orioles team the year after their 1983 pennant (who were eliminated in the semifinals of Regional #56), an Indians team midway between their great 1948 and 1954 pennant winners, and a Tigers team featuring a 37-year old Ty Cobb.  My guess is that it will be a Dodgers vs. Dodgers final, with the 2016 team winning with a probably deeper rotation. The ELO rankings see this regional as far stronger than recent brackets, with 6 of the 8 teams in the best 1000 of all time--and those rankings pick the Indians over the Orioles in the finale.  

First round action:

After a run of regionals populated by mostly bad teams, it was nice to experience two really good teams facing off in the first round--the 86-win 1924 Tigers, 3rd place in the AL, against the 93-win 1951 Indians, runner-up to the Yankees.  The Tigers boasted a HOF outfield of Cobb, Manush and Heilmann and had five .300 hitters in the lineup and three more on the bench; the Indians boasted a HOF rotation of Feller, Wynn and Lemon, with Garcia winning 20 games and players like Doby, Avila, Rosen, and Luke Easter in their prime.  Tigers starter Rip Collins soon discovered the Indians potential, as after walking two batters in the 1st Al Rosen jacked a 3-run homer to put Cleveland up.   In the 2nd, the teams traded injuries--Larry Doby out for the game, Tigers DH Del Pratt out for the tournament.  The Indians add a run in the 4th on a Kennedy sac fly, and in the 6th the Tigers finally score on Early Wynn on a Topper Rigney fielder's choice.  And that was all the Tigers could muster against Wynn, who was tagged for 8 hits by the high-average Detroit lineup (one more than the Indians managed) but largely prevented them from being turned into runs.  The 4-1 win for the Indians is the first time in the past 5 regionals that the ELO bracket favorite survived the first round!

LA fans were excited to see a 1st round face off between two Dodgers teams: the 2016 Dodgers won 91 games and the NL West, only getting knocked out in the NLCS, while the 1999 Dodgers only won 77 games but boasted a steroid-era lineup where their #9 hitter still had a SLG% over .400.  The most anticipated aspect of the matchup, though, was the pitching showdown between Clayton Kershaw and Kevin Brown, two of the best of the Dodgers modern-day starters.  And that is exactly what it turned out to be, perhaps the best pitching duel in the history of this tournament, as both starters took 2-hit shutouts into the 9th inning.  Finally, with 2 outs in the top of the 9th, the 2016s finally decoded Brown, with 2 consecutive hits bringing up Yasmani Grandal, who slaps a hard single off Brown's card to give the 2016s a 1-0 lead.  In the bottom of the 9th, Mondesi leads off with a single (1-6 split) off Kershaw's card, but then Utley converts the GBX double-play and Kershaw fans Todd Hollandsworth to preserve the shutout and the 1-0 victory.  Unfortunately, since most of the LA fans had left by the 6th inning, they missed all the scoring.

The 2003 Dodgers won 85 games to finish 2nd in the NL West, and although the 1999 Dodgers had just lost the preceding matchup, there was only one player in common in the two starting lineups:  Adrian Beltre.  The 1989 Brewers went 81-81 with solid years from their aging HOF duo of Yount and Molitor but not too much else to brag about.  From the outset, it was apparent that this would be no pitching duel; in the top of the 1st Dodger DH David Ross put LA ahead with a 2-run HR, but in the bottom of the inning LA's Hideo Nomo retired the first two batters, and then was blasted for 5 runs courtesy of HRs by Greg Brock, Greg Vaughn, and Glenn Braggs.  The Dodgers evened it up 5-5 in the 3rd when Jeromy Burnitz lofted a 3-run shot into the far reaches of County Stadium.  Then, it DID turn into a pitching duel, as both Nomo and Chris Bosio settled down and allowed no further scoring through regulation and through the 10th, when both teams had to turn things over to the bullpen--an area where the Dodgers had the decided advantage.  Sure enough, in the 12th Brewers reliever Tony Fossas put runners on 1st and 3rd with one out, and Dan Plesac was summoned in hopes of the strikeout, but #9 LA hitter Cesar Izturis banged a single to score LoDuca.  In the bottom of the 12th, the Dodgers put in killer closer Eric Gagne, and the Brewers went down quietly to give LA the 6-5 win.  Bad luck/good luck department:  the Dodgers lost starting CF Dave Roberts to injury for the remainder of the tournament, although remarkably three OTHER Dodgers also had injury rolls but each remained in the game.

After winning the pennant in 1983, the '84 Orioles won 85 games which was only good for 5th place in the powerful AL East, with their once-mighty pitching staff in decline although Mike Boddicker still won 20 games.  Even so, it was easy to see why the ELO rankings had them as big favorites over a 77-77 '57 Phillies team whose lineup after leadoff hitter Richie Ashburn went downhill rapidly.  Still, it was Boddicker who provided the top of the Phillies order with offense in the 1st inning, with 2 walks and a single loading the bases and then walking in a run to make it 1-0 Phils. A couple of hits and the Phils load the bases on Boddicker again in the 5th, and again he walks in a run.  The Orioles finally get on the board when Ripken leads off the 6th with a solo shot, and so the score is 2-1 Phillies going into the 9th.  Ripken, again leading off the top of the inning, triples and becomes the tying run on 3rd.  Phils starter Jack Sanford, who has allowed only 4 hits, then walks three consecutive batters to return the favor and tie the game.  Sanford is yanked after recording no outs and Turk Farrell tries to prevent further damage, but a John Shelby sac fly puts the O's up 3-2.  In the bottom of the 9th, Boddicker allows a leadoff single to Chico Fernandez but Ashburn grounds into a double play, and Baltimore pulls out the come-from behind 3-2 win while mustering only four hits.

The survivors

The first semifinal matched my pick for the regional, the 2016 Dodgers, against the ELO rankings favorite, the 1951 Indians, who were at full strength with Larry Doby recovered from a first round injury.  The Indians had another 20-game winner, Mike Garcia, on the mound, while the Dodgers' Kenta Maeda may not have been another Kershaw but won 16 games himself.  A 1st inning solo HR by Dodgers DH Andrew Toles provided an early lead, and in the 4th Toles doubled in another, although Puig was cut down at the plate to limit the score to 2-0, LA.  In the meantime, Maeda was cruising and through 8 innings the Indians could only muster 4 hits and no runs against him.  However, with one out in the 9th Maeda issued a walk, and I decided it was time for closer Kenley Jansen with his 0.670 WHIP and no complete hits on his card.  Jansen records a strikeout, so with two out the Indians are down to their last batter, Al Rosen--who deposits it in the Chavez Ravine grandstands to tie the game.  The Dodgers can't answer against Garcia in the 9th, and it goes to extra innings where, in the 10th, an RBI double by Jim Hegan is followed by triples from Avila and Doby, and suddenly it's 5-2 Indians as a baffled Jansen looks on.  Garcia demands to pitch the bottom of the 10th, and although he allows two hits, he strands both baserunners and the Indians win and move to the finals with an epic come-from-behind effort.

The semifinal between the 2003 Dodgers and the 1984 Orioles matched two pretty fair pitchers, Kevin Brown against Storm Davis, but both ended up having their problems.  A David Ross single put the Dodgers up 1-0 in the 3rd, but in the 4th Brown watches Izturis drop a grounder with 2 outs, and then the next batter, John Lowenstein, put it into the stands for a 2-1 O's lead.  Davis was constantly pitching out of the stretch as the Dodgers were having an uncanny ability to find the hits on his (quite good) card, and in the 6th the Dodgers erupted for 4 runs, with a McGriff bases-loaded double being the big blow.  The Orioles refused to knuckle under, and in the bottom of the 6th answered by batting around, with a Wayne Gross homer and a Mike Young bases-loaded single leading the way to 5 runs; the Dodgers had to summon Eric Gagne to record the last out of the inning as there was no sign that Brown was ever going to achieve it.  With a second comeback lead, Davis finally settles in somewhat and holds the Dodgers scoreless for the last three innings, managing a complete game 7-5 win despite allowing 17 hits!  The victorious Orioles themselves only managed 7 hits, but Brown's control problems and three Dodger errors (two of them by "2" fielders) sunk the last of the trio of Dodger squads in this regional.

Mr. Clutch
It had been a few regionals since there had been a finals pairing two good teams (i.e., ELO rankings among the 1000 best of all time), and so the matchup between the 1984 Orioles and the 1951 Indians promised to be a good one.  Both teams were at full strength and with rested bullpens, and both had strong #3 starters on the mound, 22-win Bob Feller for the Indians and Mike Flanagan for the O's.   Baltimore gets on the board in the bottom of the 2nd when Ripken doubles and Dempsey singles him home, but the Indians respond immediately in the 3rd to take the lead on a Harry "Suitcase" Simpson 2-run homer (who made a key error in Regional #87, of course for a different team).  Ray Boone singles another home in the 4th, while Feller has settled in and the O's go hitless in innings 4 through 6.  Flanagan has pitched well, but in the 8th he walks two and the O's look carefully at their bullpen, but decide to stick with him.  Al Rosen then sends a blast that hits the top of the wall (HR 1-5, I roll a 6) and the resulting double makes it 5-1 Indians.  The Orioles have no answer against Feller, and the Indians capture their second consecutive regional with a 5-1 victory; 3B Al Rosen is the regional MVP with multiple RBI in all three games.  Feller allowed 7 hits and struck out only 5; I found his card interestingly lacking in K's, and a little research indicated that this was really his last great season (5th in the MVP voting)--his K/9 had been declining appreciably with 1951 being the lowest of his career to that point, and he also led the AL in home runs allowed.  Worthy of note:  the ELO rankings PERFECTLY predicted the outcome of all games in this regional, the first time that has happened since I began investigating those rankings.

Game over


Interesting card of Regional #88:  The 2003 Dodgers didn't make it past the semifinals, but it wasn't for a lack of effort from this guy.  Gagne won the Cy Young award as a reliever, leading the league in saves and games finished, averaging 15 strikeouts per 9 innings, and a WHIP of 0.692.  With 700 teams having played in this tournament, I've looked at a lot of closer cards but I can't think of any better than this one.  Unfortunately, like many other stars in that era his remarkable season was likely pharmacologically enhanced, and he was specifically named in the Mitchell Report on steroid use which probably hastened his departure from MLB in 2008.



Friday, January 15, 2021

 REGIONAL #87:  Certainly no pennant winners in this regional, and only a few teams were close, with the 2014 Rangers having won the AL twice a few years previously, and the 1948 Phillies two years away from Whizzing.  The 1968 Astros drew encouragement from their 1969 team that won Regional #75 and it was likely that they would have the best pitching in the bracket, but my guess was that there was enough remaining pop in the Rangers lineup that it would carry them through the regional.  However, the ELO rankings had their first round opponents, the '38 Pirates, as by far the best team in a lackluster field.  That ranking didn't make me too concerned about my selection, as the ELO favorite had only survived the 1st round in one of the previous four regionals!


First round action

The 2012 Indians lost 94 games, but they still seemed to me to be miles better than their opponents, the 91-loss 1955 A's, who had a horrid rotation, poor defense, and fewer offensive weapons than Cleveland--although the A's did boast .364-hitting Elmer Valo eligible to play DH.  Things didn't start off well for the A's, as Choo led off the game with a double followed by an RBI single from Michael Brantley, and it was 1-0 Cleveland before KC recorded an out.  To make matters worse, KC's secret weapon Valo was injured for the remainder of the regional in the bottom of the 3rd, and A's fans were ready to chase the team back to Philadephia.  In the 5th, the A's managed to load the bases with their big weapon Gus Zernial up against Indians starter Justin Masterson, but 1B Casey Kotchman makes a stellar play on a line drive headed towards RF to retire the side.  When the A's get runners on 1st and 3rd in the 6th, the Indians yank Masterson in the hopes that strikeout artist Vinnie Pestano can escape the inning without damage, and he does, recording a K and a popout to end the inning.  In the 7th, A's starter Bobby Shantz records two quick outs, and then falls apart, allowing a blast to Travis Hafner and Cleveland extends their lead to 4-0.  With that padding, the Indians elect to pull Pestano after he records an out to preserve him for later rounds, but his replacement Joe Smith (probably an alias) promptly allows back-to-back HRs to Vic Power and Zernial, and the score is now 4-3.  The Indians add 2 insurance runs in the top of the 9th when A's CF Harry "Suitcase" Simpson misplays a fly ball into a double, but they also lose their own CF Brantley to injury for the remainder of the regional.  Indians closer Chris Perez retires the side quietly in the 9th, and the Indians move on with the 6-3 win.

I had picked the 2014 Rangers to win the regional without actually looking at the team at all, which is my pre-regional tradition, and didn't realize that this team deservedly lost 95 games and finally got Ron Washington fired.  Consistent with the ELO rankings, the 86-win 1938 Pirates had a much better starting rotation, much better defense, and as good if not better offense than the Rangers, with 4 Hall of Famers (the Waner brothers, Arky Vaughan, and Heinie Manush) leading Pittsburgh to a 2nd place finish in the NL.  RBI singles in the 1st for Vaughan and Bill Brubaker put the Pirates up 2-0 quickly, although the Rangers' one good starter, Yu Darvish, then settled down and rattled off four straight scoreless innings.  In the 6th, the Rangers score 4 runs, aided by two terrible fielding plays by Pirates starter Russ Bauers (p-5), although Pirates LF Johnny Rizzo's solo shot in the bottom of the inning narrows the Ranger lead to 4-3.   However, in the 8th a rare Vaughan error helps load the bases, and Ranger DH Prince Fielder's double makes it 6-3.  The Pirates had no answer against Darvish, giving the Rangers a 6-3 win and yet another elimination of a regional favorite in the first round.  Unfortunately, Rangers SS Elvis Andrus will miss the semifinal with an injury, and with nothing but pain remaining in the Rangers rotation after Darvish, this team faces an uphill climb.

Between the season of the pitcher and the influence of the Astrodome, I wasn't surprised to find that the 1968 Astros boasted a solid starting rotation and dismal offense, with only two guys in the starting lineup hitting over .250--helping them lose 90 games and finish last in the NL.  The 89-loss '53 Cubs were a pretty familiar team given that the '51 version had overachieved in reaching the finals of the previous regional, but there were two important additions to the '53 squad--LF Ralph Kiner, and 22-year old September call-up SS Ernie Banks, who had a .956 OPS in 35 ABs and was eager to see action after the 5th inning.   The Cubs draw first blood in the 3rd on a Randy Jackson sac fly, and in the 4th Eddie Miksis tripled in Joe Garagiola and then scores on a Hector Torres error, and it's 3-0 Chicago after four.  In the meantime, Cubs starter Warren Hacker was having no trouble with the Astros, and he ends up with a 3-hit shutout as the Cubs move on with a 3-0 win.  Mike Cuellar only allows six hits but, true to team form, didn't get any run support.  Sadly, 1/3 of the Astros starting lineup passed in 2020--Denis Menke, Jimmy Wynn, and Bob Watson--and the team's heart just didn't seem to be in the game.

No Seattle team has yet won a regional in this tournament, but even though they lost 91 games the 2013 Mariners had a real opportunity with no good teams remaining alive after the first round.  They faced a 66-win 1948 Phillies team that had many of the same names, but not the performances, of their 1950 pennant winners--for example, their two Hall of Famers (Richie Ashburn and Robin Roberts) were both 21 year old rookies.  The Mariners went hitless until the 4th, when with two out they ripped off 3 straight hits including back-to-back doubles by Dustin Ackley and Kendrys Morales, and moved out to a 2-0 lead.  Meanwhile, after a double by Ashburn to lead off the game, Seattle starter Hisashi Iwakuma held the Phillies hitless until the 8th, when Andy Seminick found Iwakuma's HR result with 2 out to make it 2-1, and the Mariners summon Farquhar from the pen to cut down on the HRA chances.  Farhquhar sustained the two-hitter, and the Mariners win 2-1 despite themselves only managing 4 hits off Dutch Leonard.  Playing this game, I had to imagine that the '48 Phils, many of whom probably saw action in World War II, were surprised to learn that they would be facing Iwakuma, a former star of the Japanese leagues.

The survivors

His defense stinks
The semifinal between the 2012 Indians and 2014 Rangers matched two very similar teams:  both lost 90+ games, both had no remaining decent starting pitchers, both were missing a key player due to injury (Brantley for Cleveland, Andrus for Texas), both won their first round game by a 6-3 score...and both had the same guy leading off:  Shin-Soo Choo!  The Indians started the scoring with two solo HRs (both off Texas starter Nick Tepesch's card) by Carlos Santana and Shelley Duncan, but Cleveland starter Zach McAllister is equally inept, issuing consecutive walks to Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland with the bases loaded, and the score is 2-2 after 5, with both teams getting all available hands up in the bullpen.  Leading off the 5th, Odor commits the Rangers' 3rd error of the game, and Santana doubles the runner home to chase Tepesch in favor of Shawn Tolleson, who loads up the bases and then Odor turns a Choo grounder into an RBI single to make the score 4-2 Indians.  Tolleson is then pounded some more in the 7th, including an Adsdrubal Cabrera HR off Tolleson's solid 5-5 HR result, and Tolleson leaves with the score 8-2.  A Prince Fielder solo shot off McAllister's solid HR reading at 6-9 is too little too late, and the Indians move to the finals with an 8-3 win; the Rangers end up with as many errors (4) as they managed hits.

Neither the 1953 Cubs nor the 2013 Mariners displayed much offense in their 1st round wins, but the Cubs got off to a quick start in this semifinal, scoring 2 in the top of the 1st on RBI singles from Sauer and Fondy, and adding another pair on a dawg double from Randy Jackson in the 2nd.  Unfortunately, as the Cubs were celebrating Jackson's hit, they watched in horror as the next batter, Cubs big bat Ralph Kiner, injured himself--most likely for the remainder of the tournament.  The Mariners get two solo HRs in the 4th by Morales and Gutierrez--both off Cubs starter Bob Rush's card--while a Hal Jeffcoat sac fly in the 6th makes it 5-2.  When Felix Hernandez allows the first 2 Cubs to get on base in the 7th, the Mariners have seen enough and summon Farquhar, who strikes out the side to end the threat.  In similar fashion, Bob Rush allows three straight hits to start the bottom of the 7th and the Cubs turn to their only decent reliever, Jim Willis, but he allows an untimely hit to Morales and the score is narrowed to 5-4 after 7.  However, after allowing the first two Mariners to reach base in the 8th, Willis retires five in a row to preserve the 5-4 win.  The Cubs limp into the finals with their best hitter injured, their best reliever burnt, and only frightening options remaining in their starting rotation.

His defense doesn't stink
The regional final between the 2012 Indians and the 1953 Cubs matched two seriously flawed teams that each had a key player injured and a pitching matchup between 17-loss Ubaldo Jimenez and 15-loss Paul Minner that suggested lots of fireworks.   Cleveland provided some of those early when Asdrubal Cabrera hit a solo HR and Jack Hannahan laced a 2-run double that moved the Indians out to a 3-0 lead.  However, in the 4th Indians DH Travis Hafner went down to injury, and the already depleted squad was unable to muster any more offense against Minner.  However, Jimenez was in fine form, aided repeatedly by the Indians all "2" infield defense, and other than an RBI double from Fondy in the 4th, the Cubs were also shackled.  Although Jimenez was pitching great, the Indians turned the ball over to reliever Joe Smith for the 9th, who walked the first batter and then pinch hitter Ernie Banks doubled to become the tying run on 2nd with no outs.  However, Smith retired the next 3 Cubs in order, and the Indians win the unexpected pitching duel and the regional by a 3-1 score.  Indians SS Cabrera is named regional MVP, hitting two homers in addition to providing numerous clutch defensive plays.  This is the 8th regional win for the Indians, one of which was the 2013 squad which won Regional #78 with many of these same players--with Jimenez being the winning pitcher in the regional finals for both teams.  And, this is the second consecutive loss in the regional finals for seemingly bad 50's Cubs teams.



Interesting card of Regional #87:
  With the 2012 Indians winning the regional despite having such a bad starting rotation, I spent a lot of time looking at their bullpen trying to figure out how to avoid disaster, and I ran across this guy--Nick Hagadone.  Looking at his card, I found it jarring, and not just because of his terrible ERA and 1.618 WHIP.  Can anyone else spot the feature of this card that perplexed me?

Thursday, January 7, 2021

REGIONAL #86:   This regional didn't seem to include any great teams but had a number of bad ones, although the 1983 Dodgers won their division, had won a "pennant" in the 1981 strike season and they would add another later in the decade.  It does feature the first season of the Brewers, a 1920 A's team that had only recently seen their dynasty rapidly disassembled, a Giants team with remnants from their great 1962 team, and two probably lackluster squads from the 1951 National League.  If the Dodgers could survive the 2000 Twins (those teams from the peak steroid years always are tough), I predicted that they'd edge past the 1999 Tigers in the finals.  The ELO rankings (shown in parentheses) gave the Dodgers a slight edge over the Giants in the lower bracket to be regional favorites, but they also rated the '51 Braves as a better team than I had guessed.

First round action

Setting the lineup for the '51 Braves, I discovered that I underestimated their competitiveness; although they only won 76 games and finished last in attendance in the NL, their Pythagorean projection was much better (83 wins) and at the top of the rotation they had 22-game winner Warren Spahn in his prime.  The 1970 Brewers had just moved to Milwaukee (as their opponents were about to do) one year after having been founded as the Seattle Pilots, and they lost 97 games although Tommy Harper had a big year and Marty Pattin was a decent option to face Spahn.  Even so, the 1,500 or so Braves fans in attendance were shocked when Spahn walked 5, allowed 2 hits, and a 2-base error by SS Kerr staked the Brewers to a 6-0 lead in the 2nd inning, and to prove it wasn't a fluke they added 3 more in the 3rd.  Harper leads off the 6th with a solo shot, and the Braves have nobody in the pen nearly as good as Spahn, so they're leaving him and his 311 innings in for the duration despite the 10-0 deficit.  In the 7th, Pattin starts to lose control, walking the bases loaded but only allowing 1 run on a Sibby Sisty fielder's choice.  However in the 8th Pattin continues to come unraveled, allowing 4 more runs including a Sid Gordon homer, but the Brewers are trying to preserve closer Ken Sanders with the big lead.  The Brewers add an insurance run in the top of the 9th, but when Sam Jethroe leads off the bottom of the 9th with a HR, Pattin is pulled in favor of Sanders, who does his job and seals the 11-6 upset for the Brewers.  Four errors for the Braves and 7 walks issued by Spahn sealed their fate and earned them a trip back to storage.

Although I may have underestimated the Braves from that year in the previous first round matchup, my assumptions about the 1951 Cubs were pretty accurate--they only won 62 games and simply weren't good.  Their opponents, the 69-win 1999 Tigers, weren't much better, with a truly dreadful starting rotation offset somewhat by a typical steroid-era lineup:  8 of their hitters had double-digit HRs, compared to 2 for the Cubs.  However, it was the Cubs who looked juiced early in the game, with solo homers by Baumholtz and Sauer in the top of the 1st and back to back doubles in the 2nd running the Cubs to a quick 4-0 lead.  The Cubs then gift the Tigers with unearned runs in the 3rd and 4th courtesy of their atrocious defense, but in the 5th Miksis has his 2nd RBI double of the game and the Cubs score 3 to chase Dave Mlicki after only 4 innings.  The Tigers hand the ball to their best reliever by far, Doug Brocail, and he shuts down the Cubs, but Chicago starter Bob Rush is similarly shackling the Tigers.  Finally, the juice kicks in for Detroit and Dean Palmer hits a solo shot to lead off the bottom of the 9th, but Rush recovers to end the threat and give the Cubs the 7-3 victory.

Shoulda stayed with the Celtics
The 1983 Dodgers won 91 games and the NL West behind strong pitching (including an excellent bullpen) and some pop in the lineup, led by a big year from Pedro Guerrero, but with an Achilles heel of porous defense.  They faced a 2000 Twins that lost 93 games via a bad rotation and a lineup with remarkably little power for guys in the peak of the steroid era--even 24 year old DH David Ortiz only hit 10 homers, perhaps leading the Twins to unwisely release him 2 years later.   The Twins took advantage of LA fielding in the 3rd, when SS-4 Bill Russell followed an error with another ball that he played into a single, and the Twins led 2-0.  In the 6th, RBI singles from Hunter and Lawton chased Bob Welch in favor of Snortin' Steve Howe and his 1.44 ERA, but the Twins responded with two more hits off Howe's imposing card and now led 6-0.  The Dodgers finally get on the board against Eric Milton when DH Rick Monday lofted a 3-run homer in the top of the 7th, although an RBI single from Ron Coomer extends the Minnesota lead to 7-3 in the bottom of the inning.  And that's how it ends: a 7-3 upset win for the Twins with Milton only allowing 5 hits in the complete game.

The 1968 Giants, by winning 88 games, finished 2nd in the final year of the no-division NL, and tapped 26-game winner Juan Marichal to start their round 1 game, although card-wise he may not have been their best starter.  However, he faced the 48-win 1920 A's, last place in AL, although I mercifully didn't start 23-loss Rollie Naylor, instead opting for 22-year old Eddie Rommel who would help lead the A's to glory by the end of the decade.  Although the matchup looked very one-sided, the A's were unafraid given that every other first round game in this regional had been won by the underdog, and sure enough in the 2nd a Tilly Walker triple and a Whitey Witt single, both off Marichal's card, gave the A's a 1-0 lead.  That lead lasted until the next inning, when Mays doubled in Hunt and was then singled in by McCovey, and the Giants led 2-1 after three.  Dick Dietz then leads off the 4th with a HR off Rommels HR 1-4/flyB split, and RBI singles from Alou and Hunt make it 5-1 Giants, but the A's strike back with a 3-run HR by Lena Styles, off Marichal's card, in the 5th and a 2-run double by Griffin, also off Marichal's card, in the 6th, and the Giants have seen enough of Marichal as he hands the ball to Joe Gibbon, behind 6-5.  However, in the bottom of the 6th Alou hits a shot to tie the game, again off Rommel's HR 1-4 split, and they move ahead in the 7th when a Mays single is followed by a McCovey triple.  The Giants then summon Frank Linzy from the pen to try to keep the pesky A's at bay, and he does the job to earn the save for the 7-6 come-from-behind (twice) victory--the first for a favorite in this regional.

The survivors

With two bad teams in the first semifinal between the 1970 Brewers and the 1951 Cubs, it didn't take long for both teams' weaknesses to be exposed.  In the top of the first, the Brewers score on Cubs SS-4 Roy Smalley's first of two two-base errors, but in the bottom of the inning Brewers starter Al Downing walked four batters to even the score at 1-1.  In the 2nd, the Brewers raked Cubs starter Paul Minner for 4 hits, Smalley added another error, and Milwaukee led 5-1, although a Hermanski RBI single in the bottom of the inning made it 5-2.  A Phil Roof double in the 3rd pushed the lead to 6-2, but the Cubs continued to maul Downing, scoring 4 in the bottom of the inning on RBI doubles from Miksis and Burgess.  In the top of the 4th, after allowing 2 more hits Minner was mercifully injured (he may have been faking), and Cubs ace reliever Dutch Leonard came in and ended the threat.  Smalley and Miksis singles scored two more and chased Downing in the 6th, but Ken Sanders was unable to stop Cubs supersub Bill Serena from driving in another.  Meanwhile, things weren't breaking well for the Brewers, who had two runners (1-17 and 1-19) cut down at the plate.  By the 9th inning the Cubs had a 10-6 lead but were on their 5th pitcher, being forced to put in an erratic Turk Lown to try to finish things.  The Brewers did manage a run, but that was not enough as the Cubs move to the finals with a 10-7 win and a seriously depleted bullpen.

With every other surviving team in the regional being bad squads who pulled off upsets, the 1968 Giants saw a smooth road ahead given their strong rotation and weapons like Mays, McCovey, and Bonds.  They faced the 2000 Twins, who knocked out the regional favorites but were now going deeper into a dreadful collection of starting pitching, and their #2 starter Brad Radke had an ERA nearly double that of the Giants' Gaylord Perry.  However, this tournament shows time and again that prematurely counting your chickens is not a worthwhile effort, and Radke is in fine form, going 7 innings and only allowing one run on a McCovey solo blast.  However, in those 7 innings Perry also limits the Twins to a single run on a Jacgue Jones sac fly, but the Twins add another in the 8th when Jones hits a solo HR, and the Twins turn it over to closer Latroy Hawkins to try to preserve the save.  In the 9th, Perry disintegrates with 2 outs, allowing four runs (3 on a Matt Lawton HR) and Hawkins now has a five-run pad entering the bottom of the 9th.  However, Koskie's 2nd error of the game followed by McCovey's 2nd HR of the game narrows the gap, and then the Giants put two men on with two out, and the tying run at the plate in the form of SS Hal Lanier and his .206 average.  The Giants turn to the bench for a pinch hitter, and I discover that there is not a single hitter there with a HR chance of any type on his card.  I go with .264 hitting Dave Marshall, Hawkins strikes him out, and the Twins win 6-3 and move on to an improbable regional final matching two 60-win teams.

Twins pen pal
I certainly did not expect the 2000 Twins and the 1951 Cubs to be the finalists in this regional, although a bad Senators team winning the previous bracket served as a reminder that anything was possible.  Going to the #3 starters on two 60-win teams was frightening, and the scares began in the 2nd inning when Twins starter Mark Redman welcomed Smokey Burgess to the steroid era with the former's solid 6-9 HR result, putting the Cubs up 2-0.  To return the favor, Cubs starter Cal McLish loaded the bases in the 4th with one out, but Torii Hunter missed a SI 1-18 to frustrate the fans in the Metrodome.  However, the next batter, Ron Coomer, took advantage of McLish's 5-9 HR 1-16 reading for a grand slam, and the Twins were up 4-2, and both teams were wishing their bullpens were at full strength.  With the lead, the Twins were trying to make it to the 8th inning as reliever Hawkins had 2 innings of eligibility left, but with 2 out in the 7th Frankie Baumholtz found Redman's 6-9 again for a solo HR, and the Twins put in Travis Miller as the only other reliever without a card littered with HR bombs.  After a Cavaretta single, Miller managed to get cleanup hitter Hank Sauer to ground out, and the Twins led 4-3.  In the 8th, the Twins summoned Hawkins, and he pitched two perfect innings to seal the win and the regional title for the Twins, who managed only 6 hits in the win.  Regional MVP goes to Hawkins, who earned two saves in relief of the Twins' HR-riddled starting rotation; as a team with steroid-era pitching but 1950's-style offense, the Twins 4th regional win (joining 1973, 1977, and 2019) was an unlikely one.


Interesting card of Regional #86:
  If you follow this feature, you'll know that I'm a sucker for these low-use wundercards, and this one made some contribution in propelling the bad 1951 Cubs to the regional final.  Under tournament rules, Serena could not make an appearance before the 6th inning, so he would come in for the 6th replacing Randy Jackson at 3rd, who got so sick of the practice that he retired to become an American Idol judge.  Besides his admirable .333 average, Serena obviously knew how to draw a walk and also kept away from the double play ball--this is just the kind of hitter I like batting second in the lineup.  Of course, the whole 6th inning replacement strategy could blow up with that 2-7 result; apparently Serena broke his wrist sliding into second in early May of 1951 and was out for the remainder of the season.  He had been a full-time player as a rookie in 1951, finishing 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting, but he was out of the majors by 1954--making me wonder if he had lingering effects from that injury that shortened his career.



Wednesday, December 30, 2020

 REGIONAL #85:  This regional includes one of the most infamous pennant winner/World Series loser since the one that preceded it by exactly 100 years:  the trash can-banging 2019 Astros, eager to follow up on the 2004 team's win in the preceding regional.   Interestingly, they must face another infamous baseball figure in round one:  Mark McGwire, in the very year he broke Maris's home run record.  Like McGwire's '98 Cardinals, a number of other included teams were 4 to 6 years away from pennants, such as the '59 Indians, '83 Pirates, and the 2006 Diamondbacks, with the latter trying to win the first regional for that expansion franchise.  I'm guessing the Astros will breeze through this competition unless McGwire unloads on them; although the ELO rankings only go through 2015, the Astros 2019 season-end numbers would put them tied for 22nd best of all time, far and away the best ranking in this bracket with the 1959 Indians being the only other entry ranked in the top 1000 teams.

First round action

The 2019 Astros won 107 games and had a trashcan-enhanced lineup where the #9 hitter could have DH'ed for many of the teams in this tournament; the 1998 Cardinals only won 83 but had a steroid-enhanced lineup with McGwire hitting 70 homers and a low-AB wonder sitting on the bench with a SLG% even better than Mac's, itching to come in after the 5th inning.  Even with 20-game winner Justin Verlander and capable Todd Stottlemyre on the mound, this matchup promised lots of fireworks.  However, things stayed quiet until the bottom of the 3rd, when the Astros loaded the bases with nobody out, but they could only convert one run on a Yordan Alvarez sac fly.  The Cards responded in the 4th with three unearned runs courtesy of a Correa 2-base error, although a Reddick sac fly in the bottom of the frame narrowed it to 3-2 Cards.  However, in the 6th, McGwire led off the inning with a solo blast and Verlander began to unravel.  Two consecutive hits later and the Cards summoned their low-AB wunderkind, J.D. Drew, to move into the DH slot, and Drew hit a monumental blast that smacked a Minute Maid trash can located about 450 feet from home plate.  The Astros tried to counter with their own low-use wonder, reliever Joe Smith and his 1.80 ERA, but Smith couldn't stop the barrage, and after batting around and letting McGwire score his second run of the inning, the score stood at 9-2 after six.  The Cards added two more in the 7th on a Clayton double, but Bregman matched those with a 2-run HR in the bottom of the inning.  In the 9th, a tired Stottlemyre was determined to finish things out and preserve the bullpen with a big lead, and although he allowed a run on a Brantley double, that was it for the Astros as the Cards upset the regional favorite with the 11-5 blowout.

Assembling the lineups for the 70-win 1951 A's and the 81-win 1989 Expos, I found that the A's had better hitting than I thought they might have and that the Expos had less hitting than I thought.   The A's had the AL "triple crown", with Ferris Fain leading the league in batting average and Gus Zernial leading in both HR and RBI; meanwhile, the Expos had some of the names I was expecting but not the performance, such as Galarraga (.257) and Larry Walker (.170).  Regardless, it was the two starting pitchers, Dennis Martinez and Bobby Shantz, who had things in control.  Shantz was dominating, while Martinez was working himself into jams but managing to pitch out of them unscathed.  Neither team could score until the 7th, when Shantz walked Dave Martinez and then Tim Wallach blasted one into the nearly empty reaches of the Stade Olympique, and it was Montreal up 2-0.  The A's loaded the bases against Martinez in the 8th but couldn't score, and in the 9th they had runners on 1st and 3rd, go ahead run at the plate, and Fain on deck, but Martinez struck out Eddie Joost to preserve the shutout and the 2-0 Expo win.  Shantz allows only 3 hits in defeat, but that was one too many as the A's go back into storage, while the Expos will probably need far more hits in their semifinal matchup against the '98 Cards.

The 1959 Indians won 89 games to finish 2nd in the AL, and boasted a strong rotation and a solid lineup featuring Colavito and Minoso.  They faced the 84-win 1983 Pirates, who were no slouch as they finished 2nd in the NL East and featured four .300 hitters in their lineup, and as might be expected the game proved to be hard-fought.  Jim Morrison would light the Pirates' fire in the 1st with a 2-run HR, but Cleveland countered with a solo shot from 2b Jim Baxes in the 3rd and another from Woodie Held in the 5th that tied it up.  The Pirates lost .300 hitter Mike Easler to a tournament-ending injury in the bottom of the 5th, but they were able to replace him with Lee Lacy, another .300 hitter who was a better fielder and a AA stealer to boot.  In the top of the 7th, the Indians loaded the bases with one out and Larry McWilliams would turn the ball over to relief ace Kent Tekulve, who induced the double-play grounder from PH Billy Martin to end the threat.  Meanwhile, Cleveland's Jim Perry was hanging on, but in the bottom of the 9th Jason Thompson hit a 2-out squib single past Baxes, Lee Mazilli pinch ran and advanced to 2nd on a walk to Marvell Wynne, and poor old Johnny Ray smacked a deep single to score Mazilli and give the Pirates the 3-2 upset win.

The 1911 Senators only won 64 games; Walter Johnson won 25 of them, but he got little run support from a lineup that was the deadest of deadball era, with cleanup hitter Doc Gessler leading the team with 4 homers.  The 2006 Diamondbacks won 76, and in addition to considerably more offense than the Senators, their starter Brandon Webb sported a card that was surprisingly (to me) similar to Johnson's.  However, the Nats were far more effective in finding the hits on Webb's card, but had difficulty converting those hits into runs, managing one run on a Lelivelt single from 7 hits in the first 3 innings.  Things remained at 1-0 until the 7th, when .213-hitting injury replacement Ray Morgan smacked a hard single off Webb's card to score another, and in the 9th a Gessler sac fly made it 3-0.  And that was how it ended, with the Big Train recording the shutout and holding Arizona to 5 hits.  The Dbacks only had one inning, the 8th, where they managed more than one baserunner, and that rally was killed by a Davanon DP.  The Senators may wish to enjoy their celebration while they can, because their starting rotation after Johnson is a calamity waiting to happen.

The survivors:

The first semifinal pit the HR attack of the '98 Cards (223 team HRs) against the deep rotation of the '89 Expos--I could put up a good starter for Montreal choosing solely from Smiths (Bryn and Zane).  Bryn got the nod, and Ron Gant greeted him in the 2nd inning with a 2-run homer off Smith's card to put the Cards up quickly.  In the 4th, back-to-back doubles by Hubie Brooks and Nelson Santovenia tied it up; in the 6th Brian Jordan hit a 2-run shot to put the Cards back up, but it was matched in the bottom of the inning on a 2-run double from Tom Foley.  In the 8th, Lankford walked, stole second, and was singled home by Jordan, and the Expos turned to their relief ace Tim Burke to try to prevent more damage.  Cards starter Matt Morris was still going strong and retired the Expos in order in the bottom of the 8th, and then in the 9th Burke was mangled, allowing 5 runs on 4 hits, largely from the bottom of the order for St. Louis.   Morris set the Expos down in order in the 9th, and for the second game in a row the Cards ride a big inning to double digit runs in the 10-4 victory, Morris ending with a complete game 6-hitter.

The 1983 Pirates and the 1911 Senators each faced their challenges for this semifinal matchup:  Pittsburgh had Easler injured and Tekulve burnt, while Washington faced the dire prospects of finding a starting pitcher after Walter Johnson.  Their choice, Dixie Walker (father of the Dodgers outfielder of the same name), looked to have a long day ahead of him when Johnny Ray walked, Lee Lacy singled Ray to 3rd and stole second, and Bill Madlock singled them both home for a 2-0 lead before Walker recorded an out.  However, the Senators struck back in the bottom of the 1st, tying the game on RBI singles from Doc Gessler and Tilly Walker, and then in both the 3rd and 4th Washington pounded Pirates starter Jose Deleon for four runs in each inning, with reliever Manny Sarmiento having limited success in stopping the bleeding.  Washington adds another run in the 5th, but then the Pirates erupt for 5 runs in the 6th on doubles by Berra, Wynne, and Morrison.  A leadoff double in the 8th and the Senators are desperately searching their bullpen for any help; there is nothing there but certain disaster, so Walker had to ride it out with all possible defensive replacements in attempting to lend a glove.  The strategy succeeds, and the Senators head to the finals with the 11-7 victory--an unusual success for any deadball era squad, as they are the first 1911 squad to reach the finals in 7 previous tries.

McGwire who?
 The regional finals had the unlikely pairing of an iconic steroid-era team (1998 Cards) and an obscure, punchless deadball-era squad (1911 Senators).  The Cards had scored in double digits in the first two rounds, a feat only accomplished twice before in this tournament ('76 Reds, not surprisingly, and the '94 Tigers), and with the Senators down to the #3 starter in their one-man rotation, 17-loss Long Tom Hughes, fans were wondering if the Cards might score in triple digits for the final.  However, the Senators struck in the bottom of the first, loading the bases on a single and two walks, and Cards starter Kent Bottenfield then walked in one run and another scored on a fielders choice.   In the top of the 3rd, Lankford squibbed a two-out single, bringing up McGwire, who took Long Tom long to tie the game at 2-2.  However, the Senators show the pluck that got them this far, as an RBI double by Kid Elberfeld puts Washington back up 3-2 in the bottom of the inning.  The Cards tie it immediately when Ron Gant leads off the 4th with a solo shot, but Washington again reclaims the lead in the 5th when Lelivelt triples, Gessler singles him home and steals second, then scores on an Elberfeld single to make it 5-3.  In the top of the 7th, McGwire comes up with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out, but Hughes fans him, although Brian Jordan follows with a single that narrows the score to 5-4.  Once again, Washington strikes back, scoring one on a Wid Conroy double, and it's 6-4 Nats.  Finally, the Cards are down to their last chance in the 9th, and after 2 quick outs Lankford is at the plate with McGwire on deck as the tying run.  Lankford lofts a deep fly to right, but the Nats have a defensive replacement out there who makes the stellar play, and the Senators--the worst team in the regional by the ELO rankings--are the unlikely champs.  RF Doc Gessler is the regional MVP, consistently providing timely hits and driving in key runs in all three games. He was the leading HR hitter for the Senators in 1911, although surprisingly he retired after the season. He was an actual physician, and graduated from the Johns Hopkins Medical School.

Interesting card of Regional #85:  So your teammate hits 70 homers, breaks Roger Maris's record, and has a SLG% of .752--what are you going to do to top that?  Well, McGwire, hold J.D.'s nutritional supplements; Mac's imposing 1.222 OPS was appreciably bested by Drew's 1.436.  By tournament rules, Drew was ineligible to start and all starters must play at least 5 complete innings, so he would come in for the 6th.  Although this strategy turned out well in the first round, Drew fanned twice in the regional final that saw the Senators--a team whose top HR hitter hit FOUR homers, one fewer than Drew hit in 36 AB!--beat the powerful Cards in an epic upset.

Saturday, December 26, 2020

 IN MEMORIAM: As the ordeal known as the year 2020 draws to a close, I wish to offer tribute to this formidable squad of players, who have all made appearances in my tournament and have provided me with countless baseball memories. It is some solace that their abilities live on in the form of cardstock and dice rolls.


 

Tuesday, December 22, 2020

 REGIONAL #84:  The draw for this regional is the kind of bracket I love--a real hodgepodge of teams from very different eras, boasting some of the greatest names in baseball history.  What Strat fan could resist watching Honus Wagner, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, and Jeff Bagwell try to duke it out for regional MVP?  The '58 Braves were the only pennant winners in this bunch (their second pennant in a row), but the two Astros teams bracketed their 2005 pennant winner, the 1965 Yankees followed a string of 5 straight NY pennants, the 1911 Pirates were two years removed from their great 1909 NL winners, and the 1988 Phillies were in a low spot exactly halfway between pennants in 1983 and 1993.  Although I think there is a good chance of an all-Astros final, I'm guessing that the '58 Braves will beat Astros teams twice in a row to win the regional.  The ELO rankings agree with that selection, but predict that the 1911 Pirates will reach the finals, which I think would require a big tournament from Wagner.


First round action

The 1965 Yankees won 77 games after five straight AL pennants and were the onset of a decline that wouldn't see them contend again for more than a decade; most of the famous names were there, but as evidenced by their injury rolls, their bodies were breaking down.  Their opponents, the 1911 Pirates, actually had twice as many Hall of Famers as the Yanks (Honus Wagner, joined by Max Carey, Fred Clarke, and Bill McKechnie, the latter mainly as a manager but playing 2b here) and won 85 games to finish in 3rd place in the NL.   Both teams sent 20-game winners to the mound, Mel Stottlemyre vs. Babe Adams, and Forbes Field was packed to the rafters to see this interesting matchup.  The Yanks struck first in the 3rd with an RBI double from Maris and a 2-run HR by Clete Boyer, and they added another run in the 6th with an RBI single from Elston Howard.   Stottlemyre was in fine form, but in the bottom of the 6th 38-year old Fred Clarke tripled, and a rattled Stottlemyre then grooved one to Chief Wilson, who put it into the stands for a 4-2 game.  And that was how it ended; Wagner was up twice as the potential game tying/winning run, but he couldn't reach base the entire game, and the Pirates head back into storage.

The 92-win 2004 Astros were one game away from the NL pennant and would capture the flag in the next season; the "Killer B's" of Bagwell, Biggio, Berkman and Beltran pollinated the offense while Oswalt and Clemens provided two dominating starters.  Their opponents, 104-loss 1949 Washington, was (as they say) first in war and peace, and last in the American League, as was typical, and I gave them zero chance against the powerful Astros.  So I wasn't surprised when the second batter of the game, Carlos Beltran, hit a solo shot to quickly put the Astros up 1-0.  But, I was surprised when the Senators responded in the 2nd with three squib hits off Oswalt and moved to a 2-1 lead.  That stood until the 5th inning, when the Astros batted around to score five, including a 3-run HR by Bagwell, and that was it for the Senators as Oswalt was in control for the remainder of the game.  The Astros move on with the 8-2 win, but in the process they managed to lose both Brad Ausmus and Morgan Ensberg to tournament-ending injuries.  In the process, I discovered that Houston had remarkably little bench depth, although a ton of relief pitching, and those injuries will pose a serious problem against an opponent more capable than these Senators.

Only two years after the team that won the previous first-round game, the 82-win 2006 Astros won 10 fewer games but were still dangerous; although Jeff Bagwell had retired and Beltran was gone, Lance Berkman had a monster year.  Although I had initially discounted their opponent, the 1934 Braves, they went 78-73 for a slightly better winning percentage than Houston, and Wally Berger's 34 HR was among the best in the NL that year.  However, it was the starting pitchers who dominated this game--Fred Frankhouse for the Braves, Roger Clemens for Houston.  Boston's Hal Lee hit a solo shot in the 1st for a quick lead, but Biggio matched with one of his own in the 2nd and it was 1-1 until the 6th, when Berkman misplayed a Marty McManus grounder to put the Braves up 2-1.  Berkman had a chance to atone in the 8th, with 2 out and one on, but Frankhouse whiffed him; the Astros only managed 5 hits against Frankhouse and the Braves eliminate Houston with the tight 2-1 victory.

The '58 Braves won 92 games and the NL with lots of offensive firepower from Aaron, Mathews, Adcock and Covington, and two 20-game winners in Spahn and Burdette.   They faced the '88 Phillies, who lost 96 games and finished last in the NL East, with a 38-year old Mike Schmidt in his last year as a full-time player.  The Braves thus looked like big favorites, and they went up 1-0 quickly when a Covington grounder scored Bruton in the top of the 1st.  However, the Phillies were not at all fooled by Warren Spahn, as they demonstrated a knack for finding Spahn's hits, including a Juan Samuel HR off Spahn' card in the 2nd that made it 2-1.  RBI singles from Covington and Crandall made it 3-2 in the top of the 4th, but in the bottom of the inning Philly DH Ron Jones doubled in two and it was 4-3, Phils.  An Eddie Mathews 2-run shot in the 7th gave the Braves the lead once again, and sent Kevin Gross to the showers, but a Mike Schmidt solo shot in the bottom of the inning tied it up and sent Spahn packing, with both starters recording identically bad pitching lines:  6.3 IP, 11 HA, 5 RA.  In the top of the 8th, a walk and a single off Philly reliever Greg Harris put runners on 1st and 3rd with one out and Schoendienst up; I brought in the infield to guard against the squeeze, and Schoendienst nails the gbA++ to put the Braves up 6-5.  Joey Jay and Humberto Robinson in relief prove more effective than Spahn, and the favored Braves escape with a hard-fought 6-5 win.

The survivors

The semifinal between the '65 Yankees and 2004 Astros featured a marquee pitching matchup of Whitey Ford vs. Roger Clemens, but it quickly became evident that this was not going to be a pitching duel when the Yanks rocked Clemens for 4 straight hits and 3 runs to lead off the top of the 1st.  In the bottom of the 1st, Berkman sent a solo shot into the Crawford boxes to narrow the gap, and then Clemens reeled off four straight perfect innings, while Mike Lamb (3b-5, playing for injured Morgan Ensberg) hit a three-run blast in the 3rd and the Astros had the 4-3 lead.  Doubles by Lamb and Kent in the 5th made it 6-3, and Ford was yanked in favor of Steve Hamilton, who the Astros never could touch.  Meanwhile, Mantle nailed a 2-run HR in the 6th and the Houston lead was down to 1, but Clemens finished things out with 3 hitless innings and the Astros head to the finals with a 6-5 win.  However, Houston loses SS-1 Adam Everett to a tournament-ending injury, joining Ensberg and Ausmus in that category and leaving the team wondering if they are karmically paying for the sins of a later Astros squad.

For this matchup, it was a certainty that the Braves were going to make the regional finals, but it remained to be seen if it would be the 1958 powerhouse or the 1934 upstarts.  A Joe Adcock HR put the '58s up 2-0 in the 2nd, but in the 4th Adcock misplays a Shanty Hogan flyball into a triple and the score is knotted at 2-2.  In the 6th, '34 starter Ed Brandt walks two in a row, then allows a long single to Schoendienst and the '58s regain a 3-2 lead.  The '34s lead off the 7th with a single, and the '58s eye Joey Jay in the bullpen, but decide to give 20-game winner Lew Burdette another batter to work himself out of the inning.  A tough grounder to Johnny Logan is converted into a DP, and that would be it for the '34s.  With two out in the 9th, the '34s big weapon Wally Berger was the last hope, but a suspect pitch from Burdette fooled Berger and the popout ended the 3-2 game and send the '58 Braves into the finals, even though they could only muster 6 hits against Brandt.

He didn't get injured!
The finals for Regional #84 matching the '58 Braves against the 2004 Astros were a rarity--a matchup that I accurately predicted, involving what I figured to be the two best teams in the regional.  As a pennant winner, the '58 Braves would be favored regardless, but the fact that the Astros had lost one-third of their starting lineup to injury and that they had almost no starting pitching beyond their already used "big 2" of Oswalt and Clemens compounded their challenge.  However, as he had in the semifinals, Lance Berkman hit a solo HR in the 1st inning to put the Astros up quickly, and in the 2nd .210 hitting injury replacement catcher Raul Chavez doubled home injury replacement Vizcaino to make it 2-0.  A 2-run shot by Biggio in the 7th chased Milwaukee starter Carl Willey, and the Astros were getting the champagne ready, but then Jeff Bagwell went down to injury and the Astros were down to the dregs on the bench to try to finish out the game.  An Eddie Mathews triple in the bottom of the 7th narrowed it to 4-2 and Astros starter Pete Munro gave way to closer Brad Lidge.  Hank Aaron hit a solo shot in the 8th to make it 4-3 and, true to form, Lidge was making Astros fans mighty nervous, but Lidge retired the Braves in order in the 9th and the Astros claimed the regional with the 4-3 upset win.   I am fairly confident that this is the first time in this tournament that a team had won a regional with four members of its starting lineup lost to injury.


Interesting card of Regional #84: 
When you need that strikeout in the late innings with the tying run on 3rd, this card is a pretty good option to select.  In 2004, Lidge truly was "lights out"; in the 7-game 2004 NLCS that Houston lost to the Cardinals, Lidge pitched in 4 games with 1 win and 2 saves, an 0.00 ERA with a 0.375 WHIP, and 14 K's in 8 innings pitched.  That all changed the next year in Game 5 of the NLCS rematch against the Cardinals--and I was there, deep in the right-center grandstands.  Thus, I got to witness Lidge entering the game to try to record the save in the 9th and send the Astros to the Series for the first time in their history.  Lidge struck out the first two batters, then allowed a single and a walk to bring up Albert Pujols.  Pujols, of course, then hit a shot over everything in LF that I still don't think has come down; the blow shattered Lidge's confidence and he was never the same after it.