Sunday, January 24, 2021

 REGIONAL #88:  This regional has some decent teams after a few brackets full of also-rans; it features a slew of Dodgers teams, including one from the year before their 2017 pennant winners and two steroid-era variants.  Also included was an Orioles team the year after their 1983 pennant (who were eliminated in the semifinals of Regional #56), an Indians team midway between their great 1948 and 1954 pennant winners, and a Tigers team featuring a 37-year old Ty Cobb.  My guess is that it will be a Dodgers vs. Dodgers final, with the 2016 team winning with a probably deeper rotation. The ELO rankings see this regional as far stronger than recent brackets, with 6 of the 8 teams in the best 1000 of all time--and those rankings pick the Indians over the Orioles in the finale.  

First round action:

After a run of regionals populated by mostly bad teams, it was nice to experience two really good teams facing off in the first round--the 86-win 1924 Tigers, 3rd place in the AL, against the 93-win 1951 Indians, runner-up to the Yankees.  The Tigers boasted a HOF outfield of Cobb, Manush and Heilmann and had five .300 hitters in the lineup and three more on the bench; the Indians boasted a HOF rotation of Feller, Wynn and Lemon, with Garcia winning 20 games and players like Doby, Avila, Rosen, and Luke Easter in their prime.  Tigers starter Rip Collins soon discovered the Indians potential, as after walking two batters in the 1st Al Rosen jacked a 3-run homer to put Cleveland up.   In the 2nd, the teams traded injuries--Larry Doby out for the game, Tigers DH Del Pratt out for the tournament.  The Indians add a run in the 4th on a Kennedy sac fly, and in the 6th the Tigers finally score on Early Wynn on a Topper Rigney fielder's choice.  And that was all the Tigers could muster against Wynn, who was tagged for 8 hits by the high-average Detroit lineup (one more than the Indians managed) but largely prevented them from being turned into runs.  The 4-1 win for the Indians is the first time in the past 5 regionals that the ELO bracket favorite survived the first round!

LA fans were excited to see a 1st round face off between two Dodgers teams: the 2016 Dodgers won 91 games and the NL West, only getting knocked out in the NLCS, while the 1999 Dodgers only won 77 games but boasted a steroid-era lineup where their #9 hitter still had a SLG% over .400.  The most anticipated aspect of the matchup, though, was the pitching showdown between Clayton Kershaw and Kevin Brown, two of the best of the Dodgers modern-day starters.  And that is exactly what it turned out to be, perhaps the best pitching duel in the history of this tournament, as both starters took 2-hit shutouts into the 9th inning.  Finally, with 2 outs in the top of the 9th, the 2016s finally decoded Brown, with 2 consecutive hits bringing up Yasmani Grandal, who slaps a hard single off Brown's card to give the 2016s a 1-0 lead.  In the bottom of the 9th, Mondesi leads off with a single (1-6 split) off Kershaw's card, but then Utley converts the GBX double-play and Kershaw fans Todd Hollandsworth to preserve the shutout and the 1-0 victory.  Unfortunately, since most of the LA fans had left by the 6th inning, they missed all the scoring.

The 2003 Dodgers won 85 games to finish 2nd in the NL West, and although the 1999 Dodgers had just lost the preceding matchup, there was only one player in common in the two starting lineups:  Adrian Beltre.  The 1989 Brewers went 81-81 with solid years from their aging HOF duo of Yount and Molitor but not too much else to brag about.  From the outset, it was apparent that this would be no pitching duel; in the top of the 1st Dodger DH David Ross put LA ahead with a 2-run HR, but in the bottom of the inning LA's Hideo Nomo retired the first two batters, and then was blasted for 5 runs courtesy of HRs by Greg Brock, Greg Vaughn, and Glenn Braggs.  The Dodgers evened it up 5-5 in the 3rd when Jeromy Burnitz lofted a 3-run shot into the far reaches of County Stadium.  Then, it DID turn into a pitching duel, as both Nomo and Chris Bosio settled down and allowed no further scoring through regulation and through the 10th, when both teams had to turn things over to the bullpen--an area where the Dodgers had the decided advantage.  Sure enough, in the 12th Brewers reliever Tony Fossas put runners on 1st and 3rd with one out, and Dan Plesac was summoned in hopes of the strikeout, but #9 LA hitter Cesar Izturis banged a single to score LoDuca.  In the bottom of the 12th, the Dodgers put in killer closer Eric Gagne, and the Brewers went down quietly to give LA the 6-5 win.  Bad luck/good luck department:  the Dodgers lost starting CF Dave Roberts to injury for the remainder of the tournament, although remarkably three OTHER Dodgers also had injury rolls but each remained in the game.

After winning the pennant in 1983, the '84 Orioles won 85 games which was only good for 5th place in the powerful AL East, with their once-mighty pitching staff in decline although Mike Boddicker still won 20 games.  Even so, it was easy to see why the ELO rankings had them as big favorites over a 77-77 '57 Phillies team whose lineup after leadoff hitter Richie Ashburn went downhill rapidly.  Still, it was Boddicker who provided the top of the Phillies order with offense in the 1st inning, with 2 walks and a single loading the bases and then walking in a run to make it 1-0 Phils. A couple of hits and the Phils load the bases on Boddicker again in the 5th, and again he walks in a run.  The Orioles finally get on the board when Ripken leads off the 6th with a solo shot, and so the score is 2-1 Phillies going into the 9th.  Ripken, again leading off the top of the inning, triples and becomes the tying run on 3rd.  Phils starter Jack Sanford, who has allowed only 4 hits, then walks three consecutive batters to return the favor and tie the game.  Sanford is yanked after recording no outs and Turk Farrell tries to prevent further damage, but a John Shelby sac fly puts the O's up 3-2.  In the bottom of the 9th, Boddicker allows a leadoff single to Chico Fernandez but Ashburn grounds into a double play, and Baltimore pulls out the come-from behind 3-2 win while mustering only four hits.

The survivors

The first semifinal matched my pick for the regional, the 2016 Dodgers, against the ELO rankings favorite, the 1951 Indians, who were at full strength with Larry Doby recovered from a first round injury.  The Indians had another 20-game winner, Mike Garcia, on the mound, while the Dodgers' Kenta Maeda may not have been another Kershaw but won 16 games himself.  A 1st inning solo HR by Dodgers DH Andrew Toles provided an early lead, and in the 4th Toles doubled in another, although Puig was cut down at the plate to limit the score to 2-0, LA.  In the meantime, Maeda was cruising and through 8 innings the Indians could only muster 4 hits and no runs against him.  However, with one out in the 9th Maeda issued a walk, and I decided it was time for closer Kenley Jansen with his 0.670 WHIP and no complete hits on his card.  Jansen records a strikeout, so with two out the Indians are down to their last batter, Al Rosen--who deposits it in the Chavez Ravine grandstands to tie the game.  The Dodgers can't answer against Garcia in the 9th, and it goes to extra innings where, in the 10th, an RBI double by Jim Hegan is followed by triples from Avila and Doby, and suddenly it's 5-2 Indians as a baffled Jansen looks on.  Garcia demands to pitch the bottom of the 10th, and although he allows two hits, he strands both baserunners and the Indians win and move to the finals with an epic come-from-behind effort.

The semifinal between the 2003 Dodgers and the 1984 Orioles matched two pretty fair pitchers, Kevin Brown against Storm Davis, but both ended up having their problems.  A David Ross single put the Dodgers up 1-0 in the 3rd, but in the 4th Brown watches Izturis drop a grounder with 2 outs, and then the next batter, John Lowenstein, put it into the stands for a 2-1 O's lead.  Davis was constantly pitching out of the stretch as the Dodgers were having an uncanny ability to find the hits on his (quite good) card, and in the 6th the Dodgers erupted for 4 runs, with a McGriff bases-loaded double being the big blow.  The Orioles refused to knuckle under, and in the bottom of the 6th answered by batting around, with a Wayne Gross homer and a Mike Young bases-loaded single leading the way to 5 runs; the Dodgers had to summon Eric Gagne to record the last out of the inning as there was no sign that Brown was ever going to achieve it.  With a second comeback lead, Davis finally settles in somewhat and holds the Dodgers scoreless for the last three innings, managing a complete game 7-5 win despite allowing 17 hits!  The victorious Orioles themselves only managed 7 hits, but Brown's control problems and three Dodger errors (two of them by "2" fielders) sunk the last of the trio of Dodger squads in this regional.

Mr. Clutch
It had been a few regionals since there had been a finals pairing two good teams (i.e., ELO rankings among the 1000 best of all time), and so the matchup between the 1984 Orioles and the 1951 Indians promised to be a good one.  Both teams were at full strength and with rested bullpens, and both had strong #3 starters on the mound, 22-win Bob Feller for the Indians and Mike Flanagan for the O's.   Baltimore gets on the board in the bottom of the 2nd when Ripken doubles and Dempsey singles him home, but the Indians respond immediately in the 3rd to take the lead on a Harry "Suitcase" Simpson 2-run homer (who made a key error in Regional #87, of course for a different team).  Ray Boone singles another home in the 4th, while Feller has settled in and the O's go hitless in innings 4 through 6.  Flanagan has pitched well, but in the 8th he walks two and the O's look carefully at their bullpen, but decide to stick with him.  Al Rosen then sends a blast that hits the top of the wall (HR 1-5, I roll a 6) and the resulting double makes it 5-1 Indians.  The Orioles have no answer against Feller, and the Indians capture their second consecutive regional with a 5-1 victory; 3B Al Rosen is the regional MVP with multiple RBI in all three games.  Feller allowed 7 hits and struck out only 5; I found his card interestingly lacking in K's, and a little research indicated that this was really his last great season (5th in the MVP voting)--his K/9 had been declining appreciably with 1951 being the lowest of his career to that point, and he also led the AL in home runs allowed.  Worthy of note:  the ELO rankings PERFECTLY predicted the outcome of all games in this regional, the first time that has happened since I began investigating those rankings.

Game over


Interesting card of Regional #88:  The 2003 Dodgers didn't make it past the semifinals, but it wasn't for a lack of effort from this guy.  Gagne won the Cy Young award as a reliever, leading the league in saves and games finished, averaging 15 strikeouts per 9 innings, and a WHIP of 0.692.  With 700 teams having played in this tournament, I've looked at a lot of closer cards but I can't think of any better than this one.  Unfortunately, like many other stars in that era his remarkable season was likely pharmacologically enhanced, and he was specifically named in the Mitchell Report on steroid use which probably hastened his departure from MLB in 2008.



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