SUPER-REGIONAL DD:  Of the six pennant-winners that began the first round in this field of 64 just one, the 1999 Braves, had hung on to make round four of the tournament, but there there were also a couple of division winners in this field and all had proved their grit in regional play.  I thought that those Braves and the Astros from the late 1990s would both be tough and guessed that they would match up in the final, with the Braves prevailing on the strength of an iconic starting rotation.  The ELO ratings predicted it would be a cakewalk for the Braves, predicting a win over a division-winning Brewers team to move on to the final field of 32.  

Round four action

The 1988 Red Sox seemed to have gotten past Bill Buckner’s miscue as they won 89 games, the AL East, and their regional, but now they faced a 1999 Braves team that won the NL pennant with 103 wins and one of the best rotations in the past several decades.  To demonstrate, their #4 starter in this project would be Tom Glavine (14-11, 4.12), still quite solid despite what was a down year for him; the Red Sox would counter with swingman Wes Gardner (8-6, 3.50).  The Red Sox score first on RBI hits from Larry Parrish and Jim Rice in the top of the 3rd, but like many good teams, the Braves respond immediately as Randall Simon drives in one and sets up a 3-run blast by Gerald Williams as the Braves take the lead.  They don’t stop there, with a two-run double from Bret Boone in the 4th, a two-run homer from Brian Hunter in the 5th, and another two-run blast from Ryan Klesko in the 8th batter a succession of Boston pitchers and when the final out is recorded by Glavine the Braves have cruised to an 11-3 win to continue to advance–with the top of their vaunted rotation coming up next round.

The 78-84 2022 Twins had ridden a couple of big games from Byron Buxton to take Regional #233, although 2B Jorge Polanco would be out with an injury in this round four game.  They faced the 1994 Red Sox, who limped to a 54-61 record before the strike shut the season down, but they had survived their regional despite three injuries in their first round game, including their ace Roger Clemens.  The limitation of the short season meant that for their #4 starter Boston had no option but to start a bad Danny Darwin (7-5, 6.30), while the Twins were in somewhat better shape with Dylan Bundy (6-8, 4.89) on the hill.  The Red Sox take a lead in the 2nd with an RBI double from Tim Naehring, then Otis Nixon knocks in another with a squib single.  After Mike Greenwell’s sac fly scores a third run, Mo Vaughn crushes a two-run homer and the Twins have seen enough of Bundy and hope that reliever Jovani Moran’s formidable card can stop the bleeding.  Minnesota gets on the board when Carlos Correa leads off the 4th finding Darwin’s solid 5-5 homer result, and when Jose Miranda doubles off a missed HR split he’s driven in by Gary Sanchez and the Boston lead shrinks to 5-2.  It becomes a one run game when Correa smacks a 2-run homer in the 5th, this one off his own card, but in the bottom of the inning Andre Dawson shoots a double past P-4 Moran that brings in two and Dawson scores on a Naehring sac fly as the Red Sox reassert an 8-4 lead.  They replace Darwin with Scott Bankhead to start the 6th, and he holds serve so Chris Howard takes over in the 8th hoping to close it out.  However, the Twins like the change and a couple of hits set up a run-scoring fielders choice; another hit sets up a 3-run homer by Luis Arraez off Howard’s card and the game is tied.  Howard leaves with a 52.73 ERA and closer Ken Ryan comes in; he’s immediately tagged for a double by Buxton but Correa is finally retired for the 3rd out.  However, in the top of the 9th injury replacement Alex Kirilloff rolls a 2-2 for a solid two run homer.  It’s now up to Twins closer Jorge Lopez to try to hang onto the Twins’s first lead of the game, and he does so, striking out PH Rich Rowland to preserve the 10-8 come-from-behind win that propels Minnesota into round five.

The 2011 Brewers won 96 games and the NL Central because of offensive power, a good rotation, and despite shaky infield defense; Randy Wolf (13-10, 3.69) was a solid option for a #4 starter in this round four matchup.  They faced the 2020 Padres, who had made the post-season in the pandemic year with a 37-23 record and had outscored their opposition in their regional 26 to 7.  Like all teams from that year, the Padres had a rotation strictly determined by IP and fortunately Garrett Richards (2-2, 4.03) was decent because their bullpen had been taxed in the previous two games.  However, the top of the first is a disaster for Richards, who walks four while errors from 3B-1 Manny Machado and 1B-3 Eric Hosmer combine for three Milwaukee runs, and it could have been worse without a caught stealing and an inning-ending DP with the bases loaded.  In the 2nd, Jurickson Profar gives the cardboard cutout fans something to cheer about with a bases loaded single that scores two to make it a one run game.  They then tie it when Fernando Tatis Jr. leads off the bottom of the 3rd with a triple, and he scores on a Machado single, but Corey Hart takes off his sunglasses at night for an RBI triple in the 5th putting the Brewers back in the lead.   When Jake Cronenworth doubles in the 6th, Milwaukee seeks to take no chances and summons closer John Axford and his 46 saves to try to escape the inning, and he is brilliant with a whiff and a lomax to end the threat.  A couple of singles in the top of the 7th and it’s San Diego’s turn to go to the pen, with Pierce Johnson inducing a DP to keep the game within one.  But Axford and Latroy Hawkins combine to keep the fearsome Padres hitters at bay and Milwaukee moves on with the 4-3 win. 

Houstonian Kevin took the opportunity to swing by Tournament Central and manage his 1997 Astros against me running the 2015 Diamondbacks.  The Astros won the NL Central that season but with only 83 wins, just slightly better than the 79 put up by the Dbacks.   However, the Astros had some other advantages such as a fully rested bullpen and a healthy lineup, while Arizona was down two different rightfielders to injury and extra inning games in the regional had taxed the pen.  For this round four game it would be Houston’s Shane Reynolds (9-10, 4.23) against Dback Chase Anderson (6-6, 4.30), and when the Astros began the top of the 1st with two straight doubles by Billy Spiers and Craig Biggio it was looking like it wouldn’t take long for Chase to be chased.   However, Anderson strands two and the Dbacks tie it in the bottom of the 3rd on a sac fly by Paul Goldschmidt.  It’s back to back doubles for Jeff Bagwell and Derek Bell in the 5th to put Houston up 2-1, but Houston has a problem in the bottom of the inning with a solo shot by AJ Pollock, and an RBI triple by David Peralta who then scores on a Wellington Castillo single and Arizona now leads 4-2 after five.  A solo homer by injury replacement Phil Gosselin provides some insurance, and although an RBI single from Chuck Carr narrows the margin in the 8th, closer Brad Zeigler comes in to exterminate the Killer B heart of the lineup to send the Diamondbacks on to round five with a 5-3 win and send Kevin back on the road with only one Astro team now still alive in the tournament.

The survivors:  round six

As with most round five games, the contestants were back to the top of their rotations meaning that the division-winning 2011 Brewers would have Shaun Marcum (13-7, 3.54) ready to go against Robbie Ray (5-12, 3.52) and the 2015 Diamondbacks.   The favored Brewers would be at full strength, while the Dbacks were still down two right fielders to injury and had some wear and tear on their bullpen from repeated close games.  In the top of the 1st, 1-16 Nyjer Morgan is nailed trying for an extra base on a Prince Fielder single, but eventually Fielder scores on a double from Corey Hart so Milwaukee does come away with a run.  In the 3rd, Ryan Braun converts a triple on Ray’s card and scores on a Fielder sac fly, but Welington Castillo grills a solo shot in the bottom of the 4th that narrows the Brewer lead to 2-1.  When Jonathan Lucroy doubles off Ray’s card in the 6th, Andrew Chafin comes in from the pen and quells the threat; the Dbacks respond in the bottom of the inning with a single and a Castillo double that puts the go-ahead run in scoring position with nobody out.  It’s now the Brewers’ turn to look to the pen, and Takashi Saito gets the call–but he issues a walk and then allows a 2-run double to Jake Lamb and the Dbacks take the lead.  Saito then finds his stuff and gets out of the inning without further damage, but Arizona can now summon Brad Ziegler to begin the 8th in search of his second straight save.  He goes into the 9th and retires two straight pinch-hitters, but Nyjer Morgan singles to put the tying run aboard and major threat Braun at the plate.  But Ziegler prevails, whiffing Braun and preserving the 3-2 win that sends the upstart Dbacks to round six, where starting RF Ender Inciarte is expected to come off the DL and rejoin the lineup.  

The 1999 Braves were back at the front of a very strong rotation, with Kevin Millwood (18-7, 2.68) a 3rd place finisher for the Cy Young award, despite a rather rocky round one start.  For the 2022 Twins, it would be Sonny Gray (8-5, 3.08) who had won his first round game thanks to a three home run performance by CF Byron Buxton.  An RBI single from DH Randall Simon puts the Braves up 1-0 in the bottom of the 1st, and things stay that way until injury replacement Eddie Perez hits a solo shot in the 5th, with Andruw Jones driving in another later in the inning with a missed HR split double.  In the 8th, it’s Bret Boone’s turn for a solo home run that provides some unnecessary padding, as Millwood finishes out a 4-hit shutout in dominating the Twins and sending the Braves on to the super-regional final with the 4-0 win.

Super-regional finals

Brother Chuck had rolled the 1999 Braves through the super-regional to this final game, and so he and John Smoltz (11-8, 3.19) would try to guide them to the final field of 32 against me with the 2015 Diamondbacks and Josh Collmenter (4-6, 3.79).   The Braves had won five straight courtesy of a legendary rotation, with Smoltz’s three-hit shutout in round two being one highlight; the Dbacks had gotten this far with some improbable come from behind wins, such as a four-run walk-off explosion in round two and a three-run walk-off in the 10th inning in round three.   Here, though, it’s Arizona who starts out ahead with a David Peralta sac fly in the bottom of the 3rd, but it all comes crashing down on Collmenter in the top of the 5th.  A six-run barrage that includes a 3-run homer by Chipper Jones and a 2 run double from Brian Hunter sends the Dbacks to the pen for Andrew Chafin, who finally ends the inning; Arizona then rallies for three in the bottom of the inning that includes a Welington Castillo homer and the lead narrows to 6-4.  The Dbacks thus appear poised for another comeback, but Hunter adds a run in the 6th on a sac fly, and Smoltz is looking sharp in the final innings–that is, until the second out of the 9th inning, when he’s injured for 15 games and the vaunted Braves rotation is down a man for the remainder of the tournament.  Russ Springer comes on to record the final out and the pennant-winning Braves capture the super-regional with a 7-4 victory to earn a berth among the final 32 teams, albeit without injured Javy Lopez and John Smoltz for the sectional matchups.

Interesting card of Super-Regional DD:   The 1999 Atlanta Braves reeled off six straight wins in this tournament to capture the super-regional, which is not terrible surprising given that three of the four pitchers in their starting rotation for the tournament were Hall-of-Famers named Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz.  Thing is, none of those three were the #1 starter for the NL champ, 103-win Braves; instead, it was this guy, who at age 24 finished 3rd in the Cy Young balloting while also receiving votes for NL MVP.   Despite this great season and a 16-year career that totaled 169 wins, I’m not sure many could name him in a trivia question about the final cog in the Braves rotation.  The Atlanta rotations of that era always seemed to come up with a fourth starter who was impressive with the Braves but a disappointment after they moved on (yes, Steve Avery and Denny Neagle, we’re looking at you), and Millwood was not really an exception to this trend; although he did lead the AL in ERA with Cleveland in 2005, he also led the league in losses with the Orioles in 2010.  In the first round, I felt a little uneasy starting Millwood over the three HOFers, and it didn’t help when Millwood failed to last four innings, getting bailed out by John Rocker and two homers/five RBI from Chipper Jones for a comeback win.  But Millwood proved his mettle in the super-regional with a four-hit shutout in his second start of the tournament, and despite a project-ending injury to Smoltz in the super-regional final, these Braves have to be considered a strong contender to go all the way.