SUPER-REGIONAL FF:  It’s the final super-regional, representing a strong group of 64 squads that began with five pennant-winners and saw two of those capture their regional to make an appearance here.  Not only that, but also included among the eight entrants are some teams that didn’t win a pennant but had the best record in MLB, such as two recent Dodgers teams.  In fact, the ELO rankings saw those two teams, LA from 2021 and 2022, as the best two squads in the group, with both having among the best season-ending ELO rating in baseball history and both expected to triumph over tough opposition to meet in the finals.  At that point the ratings are essentially a toss-up, with ‘21 fractionally better than ‘22 but with many of the same players on the two rosters.  Personally, I was hoping for pretty much anyone else to move on.

Round four action

For Friday Night Strat, we decided to give Tall Tactician the opportunity to reprise his management of his hometown team in the form of the pennant-winning 2009 Phillies, who would be operating at full strength after some minor injuries suffered in the regional had resolved.  Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.05) had led the Phils in innings pitched but was functioning as the #4 starter in this tournament.   His opponent would be the 91-loss 2023 Cardinals, helmed by StratFan Rick who had no particular attachment to the squad; the Cards would have Jack Flaherty (7-6, 4.43) on the mound.  It didn’t have the makings of a pitching duel, but one seemed to develop.  Neither team could do much of anything, but in the top of the 3rd it was Nolan Gorman finding his solid HR result for a two-run shot that put the underdog Cards ahead.   Tall Tactician moved to the Phils pen in the 6th, and Clay Condrey and Pedro Martinez hold the Card at bay waiting for the powerful Philly offense to heat up.  But that doesn’t seem to happen.  The Phils load the bases when Flaherty issues three walks in the 2nd, but Raul Mondesi hits into an inning-ending DP and that opportunity is lost.  Other similar opportunities arise, but Flaherty continues to work his way out of them, and the Phils can never push a runner across the plate; Flaherty ends up with a 5-hit shutout and the heavily favored Phillies head back to the storage drawers as the Cards move on with the 2-0 upset.

As one of the premier remaining matchups at the super-regional level, this game seemed to merit the Zoom treatment Friday Night Strat.  It was a round four game between the pennant-winning 1957 Yankees and the 106-win 2021 Dodgers, with EaglesFly taking the Yankees and StratFan Rick helming the Dodgers, with the winner likely to be the odds-on favorite to take this bracket and move on.  Befitting two good teams, the #4 starters were good enough to anchor most rotations, with Hall of Famer Whitey Ford (11-5, 2.57) going for the Yanks and pre-suspension Trevor Bauer (8-5, 2.59) on the hill for the Dodgers.  You might think that a pitching duel would be in order–but you couldn’t be more wrong.  The Yankees crush Bauer in the bottom of the 1st, with namesake Hank Bauer beginning the RBI train, followed by a 2-run double from Yogi Berra and then a 3-run homer from Jerry Lumpe that provides the finishing blow for Trevor B., after only a third of an inning pitched.  Clayton Kershaw then comes in after having been bypassed for the starting assignment, and he promptly yields a solo shot to Elston Howard on his first pitch.  After Gil McDougald finally provides the third out with what was his second out of the inning, the Yankees lead 7-0 and it’s looking like it’s over–but EaglesFly states that every time he jumps out to a big lead, he ends up losing.  That looked unlikely–but not for long, as in the top of the 2nd the Dodgers erupt for eight runs, chasing Ford after he allows six of them, and then Al Cicotte comes in and looks like he’s been paid to throw the game allowing two more without recording a single out.  Don Larsen finally manages to retire the side, but in the 3rd he’s tossing an imperfect game as he can record only one out before he allows six runs, with a bases loaded triple by Mookie Betts only a small taste of the Dodger barrage.  When the smoke clears, LA is leading 18-7 and the shell-shocked Yankees are demanding to check the dice for PEDs or corking.  The Yankees still have weapons, and Mickey Mantle proves his mettle with a grand slam in the 6th and a two-run homer in the 8th that “narrows” the lead to 21-15 going into the 9th, but the 5th Yankee pitcher, Johnny Kuck, proves no better than his predecessors when he allows a grand slam to Corey Seager, totalling 7 RBI in the game for the Dodger shortstop.  Victor Gonzalez comes in to mop up a perfect 9th and the game finally ends with the Dodgers pounding out a 25-15 win, setting the tournament record for runs scored by both the winning and the losing teams.  

The 91-win 2009 Cardinals won the NL Central, but they didn’t get as far in the post-season as the 92- win 2021 Red Sox who fell just short of a pennant in losing the ALCS.    The teams would be at the tail end of their rotation, with the Cards Kyle Lohse (6-10, 4.74) and Boston’s  Martin Perez (7-8, 4.74) nearly carbon copies of one another.  Predictably, neither would get very far in the game before getting roughed up; the Cards start with a 2-run double by Julio Lugo in the bottom of the 2nd, while solo shots from Kyle Schwarber and Ryan Ludwick tie it up immediately in the top of the 3rd.  Lugo and Mark DeRosa drive in two more in the bottom of the inning to restore the Cards lead, but a Rafael Devers grand slam in the top of the 5th sends Lohse to the showers.  He is quickly joined by Perez, who coughs up four runs of his own in the bottom of the inning and the Cards regain an 8-6 lead; Schwarber drives in another in the 6th for Boston and it’s a one run game until Skip Schumacher and Albert Pujols combine for three RBI in the 7th.  From there, the St. Louis bullpen gets into a string of trouble but manage to hold off a Boston rally to hang onto an 11-9 win that spells the end of the road for the Red Sox.

This round four game represented what should have been the 2022 NCLS matchup, because the 2022 Dodgers and the 2022 Braves had the two best records in the league but both lost in their divisional series.  Still, the quality of the two teams was evident in their #4 pitchers, with Tyler Anderson (15-5, 2.57) and Atlanta’s Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.34) boasting better cards than some of the #1 starters I’ve seen in this tournament.  The Dodgers, who won a remarkable 111 games, would have to play without injured star Freddie Freeman, although replacement Edwin Rios was a low AB powerblock although a dangerous 5 at 1B.  An RBI single by Trayce Thompson puts the Dodgers up by a run in the top of the 1st, but the Braves tie it in the bottom of the inning with a solo homer by Austin Riley, and they don’t stop there putting up single runs in the 2nd and 3rd to move out to a 3-1 lead.  However, a Gavin Lux triple cuts it to one in the 5th, and then a Thompson sac fly and a Rios solo shot puts the Dodgers ahead.  Typical of teams at this level of the tournament, the Braves fight back immediately as Riley hits his second bases-empty homer of the game to tie things up, and from there both teams call upon their bullpens, who keep the status quo through nine innings to send the game to extra frames.  The pens for both teams are deep and the scoreless innings mount, but finally in the top of the 14th Braves reliever Dylan Lee grooves one to weak hitting defensive replacement Hanser Alberto, who puts the ball into the seats for a 2-run homer; Daniel Hudson takes the mound in the bottom of the 14th and shuts down the Braves to close out the marathon 6-4 win and send a second Dodgers team to round five of this super-regional.

The survivors:  round five

After rolling the 2021 Dodgers to a tournament-record 25 runs in round four, we had to get StratFan Rick to reprise his dice magic for their round five matchup against the 2023 Cardinals, with the managing assignment picked up once again by Eaglesfly.  However, this time around it would be the top of the rotation for both teams, with Max Scherzer (15-4, 2.36) against Jordan Montgomery (6-9, 3.42) suggesting that the teams should score fewer than the 40(!) runs put up in the Dodgers’ last game.  Sure enough, the game is scoreless after four, but in the bottom of the 5th the StratFan skidders find their groove and it’s hit after hit for the Dodgers once again; Montgomery is yanked after allowing five runs, with a two-run Cory Seager triple being the finishing move, but JoJo Romero then embarks on a bizarre adventure with another run in the 6th and three in the 8th with Justin Taylor providing a two-run double as a key blow.  Meanwhile, the Cards can find nothing on Scherzer, who finishes up a 3-hit shutout, striking out 10 as the Dodgers march to another double-digit victory and move on to the super-regional final with the dominating 10-0 win.

After the previous round five game, this was a bit of deja vu with the 2022 Dodgers taking on the 2009 Cardinals for the chance to face the 2021 version of LA in the finals.  The Dodgers were hoping that ace Tony Gonsolin (16-1, 2.14) could go deep in the game after the 14 inning round four marathon that put a big dent in their strong bullpen.  He would face the Cards’ Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63), who had fallen a few outs short of a complete game in his first round appearance.  Things start out shaky for Wainwright as Trayce Thompson puts the Dodgers up in the top of the 1st with a two-run homer, but in the bottom of the inning it’s Albert Pujols with a two-run shot of his own to reset the game.  The Cards then move into the lead in the bottom of the 4th with an unexpected RBI triple from converted pitcher Rick Ankiel, but that celebration is short-lived as the Dodgers load up the bases on Wainwright in the 5th, and Thompson adds to his total with a grand-slam that sends Wainwright to the showers.  Andrew Miller is then greeted by a solo shot from Edwin Rios, in for the injured Freddie Freeman, and Thompson adds another RBI to his total in the 6th as the Dodgers cruise to an 8-3 win to set up a meeting in round six with their younger selves.

Super-regional finals

The last super-regional final of the tournament promised to be a very confusing one, mainly because the 2021 Dodgers and the 2022 Dodgers had a lot of the same players on their rosters.   However, it would not be the unusual circumstance of the same starter facing himself (which has happened previously in the tournament), as 2021 Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47) was matched with 2022 Julio Urias (17-7, 2.16), who was the league ERA leader but who would be charged with keeping a 2021 offense in check that had scored 35 runs in their previous two games.   Sure enough, the ‘21s start off the top of the 1st with a 2-0 lead resulting from an AJ Pollack solo homer and a Chris Taylor RBI single, but ‘22 responds in the 2nd with a succession of singles, four of which score runs thanks to Justin Turner, the other Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, and Gavin Lux.   In the 3rd, the ‘22s extends their lead to 5-2 as injury replacement Edwin Rios hits his third homer of the super-regional, but the ‘21 version of Justin Turner smacks a solo shot of his own to narrow the gap, and both starters don’t last past the 5th inning as both teams boast strong (and similar) bullpens.  Those pens do the trick, with no further scoring until Rios hits his 4th homer of the bracket to provide additional insurance, leaving injured Freddie Freeman with the distinct feeling he’d been Wally Pipped.  At any rate, it’s the 2022 version of the Dodgers who will move on with the 6-3 victory over their previous season counterparts, placing them in the final field of 32 with a fine shot at going all the way as an 111-win team.  

Interesting card of Regional FF:  With two recent Dodgers teams playing in the round six finals, I personally had seen enough of the Dodgers both in Strat and in real life.  However, the way the bracket played out provided an opportunity to explore one of the quirks of this project:  how injuries are handled.  The upshot is that the Basic Strat injury chart is used as printed, meaning that some guys have been injured for 15 games in a tournament that only has eleven rounds in it.  That multiplies the unpredictability of the single elimination format, but it also rewards teams with decent depth, and a number of teams have advanced quite far despite multiple injuries thanks to the strength of their bench.  In certain unusual situations, an injury can actually help a team, because project rules stipulate that direct injury replacements are not subject to usage restrictions, meaning that a low-AB wonder, if available for that position, can become a starter.  The super-regional winning 2022 Dodgers ended up demonstrating this aspect nicely when Freddie Freeman, the NL leader in hits, doubles, and OBP, and 4th place finisher in the MVP voting, was lost to injury for 8 games in round two of the tournament.   For most squads, losing your best hitter might be a death blow, but these Dodgers reached deep into the extra players for the rather obscure Edwin Rios, who responded to his opportunity with four home runs in the three games of the super-regional.  Rios was a highly regarded prospect in the Dodger organization, and his MLB debut in 2019 was stellar as he compiled an eye-opening 1.010 OPS in 47 at-bats.  However, he didn’t get much of a chance to show his stuff in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, although he did earn a Series ring, and in 2021 he performed dismally in limited use.   The 2022 season that is shown here turned out to be his highest number of appearances in his career; although nowhere near the juggernaut of his 2019 one, it was still sufficiently power-packed to dominate the super-regional and propel his Dodgers to the final field of 32.  Unfortunately for Rios, that was pretty much the end of the road; he hit under .120 in both 2023 and 2024 in limited stints with the Cubs and Reds, and I’m guessing that his MLB career is over, even though he’s still only 31 years old.  Nonetheless, he might be happy to know that his team wouldn’t be among the final 32 survivors (of the 2,056 that began the tournament) without his outstanding performance as an injury replacement.  The Dodgers just better hope the dice don’t notice that 3-7 result before Freddie heals up.

SUPER-REGIONAL EE:  The penultimate super-regional derived from 64 teams that heavily sampled the 21st century given that those games were played relatively recently.  Only one pennant winner had begun in round one and they didn’t survive that first game; instead, half of these eight survivors were pretty good squads, while the other half were mediocre or worse.  The ELO rankings predicted that the 2006 White Sox, just one season removed from their first Series championship in nearly a century, would best the 2009 Dodgers in the finals, but I had a feeling that the last Sox team left alive in this tournament would succumb to the same jinx as the rest of the franchise. 

Round four action

When I did a sabbatical at Harvard in 1995-96, I took my oldest son (about age 10 at the time) to a number of games at Fenway, and he became a Red Sox fan.  Thus, even though he’s played Strat very infrequently throughout the years, and only to humor me, he was up for a father/son grudge match in which he would manage the 1997 Red Sox against my 2006 White Sox.  His team was fairly similar to those he had seen live, while my team was fairly similar to the 2005 World Champions that I had seen live (in the Series, no less), but neither team was as strong as their forebears.  Also, as a 4th round game this one would test the end of the respective rotations, and Boston’s Aaron Sele (13-12, 5.38) and the ChiSox’ Jon Garland (18-7, 4.51) both had better seasons.  The Red Sox jump out to a lead in the top of the 1st courtesy of a solo homer by Reggie Jefferson, and a sac fly by Darren Bragg in the 2nd makes it 2-0.  However, the South Side Hitmen reappear when Joe Crede and Juan Uribe go back to back in the bottom of the inning to tie it, and an RBI single from Scott Podsednik puts the White Sox up 3-2 in the 4th.  Both teams go to their pens in the 6th, with Jim Corsi holding Chicago at bay while big Bobby Jenks tosses two scoreless frames against Boston.   It remains a one-run Chicago lead going into the top of the 9th, and Mike MacDougal is charged with trying to close out the win.  But son Michael taps Rudy Pemberton to pinch hit–but not the .512-hitting freak from the previous season, but a .238 hitter that is nonetheless better than injury replacement Mike Benjamin.  All Rudy does is hit a pinch-hit homer to tie the game that quiets the Chicago crowd, sending the game to the bottom of the 9th with Corsi having tossed three hitless innings. It’s AJ Pierzynski to lead things off, and it’s a 2-8 roll, a HR 1-13 split that is converted and the White Sox walk it off with a 4-3 win that propels them on to round five, the last surviving team of the franchise in the tournament.

The 87-win 2015 Yankees had survived their regional with no injuries and with their strong bullpen fully rested, which might come in handy given that #4 starter Michael Pineda (12-10, 4.37) looked pretty hittable.  The 2008 Twins similarly had 88 wins, but their DH Jason Kubel was not yet back from injury and the guy at the bottom of their rotation, Glen Perkins (12-4, 4.41) also had potential for disaster, so a pitcher’s duel here was unlikely.  Sure enough, Mark Texeira kicks things off in the top of the 1st with a two-run homer, but an RBI double from Justin Morneau and a sac fly by Delmon Young ties it up in the bottom of the inning.  Mike Lamb pokes an RBI single in the 2nd and the Twins then take the lead, which holds until the top of the 4th when Didi Gregorius singles in Carlos Beltran to restore the tie.  Lamb responds with a 2-out RBI double in the bottom of the inning, and then back to back doubles by Joe Mauer and Morneau to lead off the 5th chase Pineda for Justin Wilson.  Injury replacement Matt Macri greets Wilson by converting a TR 1-3 split off Wilson’s card that scores Morneau, then a walk and a DP ball and it’s 7-3 Minnesota after five.  They hope that Perkins can hold on with a four run lead, but that’s quickly cut after doubles from Beltran and Stephen Drew, so Dennys Reyes is summoned to put out the fire and he does end the inning without further incident.  However, in the top of the 7th a walk and a 2-run homer by Brett Gardner and suddenly it’s a one run game; then SS-3 Brendan Harris drops a grounder that sets up a two out RBI single from Beltran and the game is tied.  At this point the Yanks decide to bring in closer Andrew Miller, and he records two quick strikeouts in the bottom of the 7th but that injury replacement Macri then converts a split homer for a solo shot and an 8-7 Twins lead.  Now, it’s the Twins turn to insert their closer, Joe Nathan, but Harris drops the grounder resulting from Nathan’s first pitch and Harris is yanked for a defensive replacement mid-inning.  Nathan gets out the 8th, but walks the leadoff batter in the 9th, and after two quick outs it’s Drew with a tape measure homer and suddenly the Yankees take a one run lead into the bottom of the 9th.  Seeking to preserve Miller for the next round, they give the save opportunity to Dellin Betances and his 1.50 ERA, and although Denard Span rips a double, he’s stranded as the tying run and the Yankees survive a battle to win 9-8 and advance.  

The 2008 Mariners were one of those teams that had no business reaching the super-regional round of this tournament, losing 101 games, but Ichiro spearheaded an offense that averaged 10 runs a game over their first three rounds.  Once again they would be underdogs, this time to a middling 82-79 2018 Pirates, who had squeaked through their regional that included a 22-inning marathon in the second round from which most of their bullpen had still not recovered, meaning that Ivan Nova (9-9, 4.19) was needed to pitch better than his card suggested.  He was still noticeably better carded than Seattle’s RA Dickey (5-8, 5.21), although the M’s pen was fortunately fully rested.  However, neither offense does anything in the early going, and Mariners 2B Jose Lopez suffers a tournament-ending injury in the 4th which doesn’t help Seattle any.  A solo shot by Starling Marte in the bottom of the inning finally starts the scoring, but Nova allows a walk and two singles, the last an RBI for Jeremy Reed, and the Pirates bring in Kyle Crick to try to keep things from getting worse.  But Pirates LF-2 Corey Dickerson then misplays a Jose Vidro single and another Mariners run scores before the Crick runs dry.   Now armed with a lead, Seattle summons Erik Bedard to begin the 6th, but he immediately allows a leadoff triple to catcher Francisco Cervelli.  In comes the infield, Bedard bears down, and thanks to two stellar defensive plays by injury replacement 2B Luis Valbuena, the Mariners escape the inning still clinging to the one run lead.  Roy Corcoran is charged with sustaining that lead in the bottom of the 9th, but he drops a Marte grounder to lead off the inning and Marte then steals second to put the tying run in scoring position with nobody out.  Dickerson then singles and the fleet Marte races home and the game is tied with the winning run aboard.  But Corcoran then retires three straight and the game heads to extra innings–with the Pirates down to the nether regions of their pen.  Edgar Santana gets the call for the 10th, and the battle continues.  M’s reliever Cesar Jimenez deals a HR 1-8 split to Colin Moran in the 12th, but Moran misses and ends up at 2nd with nobody out.  However, Jimenez strands him there, and as the game moves to the 14th the Pirates turn to Tyler Glasnow, and although he starts out with two quick K’s, he then yields three consecutive singles and the last one by Reed put the Mariners in the lead.  Jimenez then uses his last inning of eligibility to retire three in a row and the Mariners continue their unlikely run with a 3-2 win in 14 innings that keeps them alive and sends them to the next round.  

The 2009 Dodgers won 95 games and the NL West, making it to the NLCS but falling short of a pennant.  They had survived their regional despite some injuries, and though SS Rafael Furcal would be back for this round, but the other half of their DP combo, All-Star 2B Orlando Hudson, was out for the foreseeable future. The 2023 Angels lost 89 games in the last season of the Mike Trout/Shohei Ohtani duo, but they got through the first three rounds on pitching, only outscoring the opposition 7-3 across the three games.  For round four it was not a bad pitching matchup, with the Angels’ Patrick Sandoval (7-13, 4.11) against Chad Billingsley (12-111, 4.05) decent options for the bottom of the rotation.  Billingsley strikes out the side in the top of the 1st, although the three strikeouts were interrupted by a solo homer from Ohtani and a quick Angels lead.  The Dodgers respond immediately as leadoff hitter Juan Pierre walks, steals second, and scores on an Andre Ethier single, and in the 2nd it’s Pierre’s turn with a 2-out RBI single to give the Dodgers the lead.  Injury replacement Ronnie Belliard adds another 2-out single in the 3rd that scores a third Dodger run, but Brandon Drury nails a solo shot in the top of the 4th to make it a one-run game.  Both pitchers settle down from the, but a leadoff walk in the bottom of the 7th and the Angels bring in Andrew Wantz as they wantz to keep it close; he escapes with no damage.  Meanwhile, Billingsley is on a roll, striking out 12 and getting two outs in the bottom of the 9th but then a Trout single and a walk to CJ Cron puts the tying run in scoring position.  So the Dodgers summon Hong-Chin Kuo to get the final out, and he fans Mike Moustakas as the Dodgers survive with a 3-2 win to move on to round five. 

The survivors:  round five

The 2009 Dodgers can’t be faulted for wondering how their opponents, the 101-loss 2008 Mariners, managed to reach this far in the tournament, and now both teams would be returning to the top of their rotations.  That was particularly good news for Seattle, whose bullpen was toast after a 14 inning win in round four; Felix Hernandez (9-11, 3.45) was capable of going deep in the game.  For the Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79) was ready to go, and both teams were missing their starting second basemen due to injuries.   Both aces make the first pass through the lineups with no damage, but in the 4th back to back doubles by Yuniesky Betancourt and Jeremy Reed stake the upstart M’s to a 2-0 lead.  The Dodgers don’t get on the board until a solo homer by Casey Blake in the bottom of the 7th makes it a one-run game, but a rally falls short as Hernandez retires PH Jim Thome to leave two runners stranded.  In the 8th, James Loney misses a HR 1-7/flyB that could have tied it, but that proves to be their last, best chance as Hernandez wraps up a 5-hitter as Seattle wins a 2-1 gem.  Kershaw fans 11 and allows only six hits, but three of them being in the same inning dooms the Dodgers as the improbable run for the Mariners continues.

The sole remaining representative of their franchise, the 2006 White Sox sought to resist the Sox jinx against the 2015 Yankees, with Yankee ace MasahiroTanaka (12-7, 3.51) against Jose Contreras (13-9, 4.27), the best the Sox could muster from a rotation that had crashed after World Championship of the previous season.   The Yanks jump in front in the bottom of the 3rd on a solo homer from Chase Headley off Contreras’ card, while Scott Podsednik reprises his improbable World Series heroics with a home run off Tanaka’s card in the 4th to tie the game.  However, RBI singles by Headley and Brett Gardner in the 5th put New York back on top, and in the 6th a solo shot by Carlos Beltran and a run-scoring triple from Did Gregorius makes it 5-1 Yankees, and it’s looking like the Sox run is over.  However, Chicago gets RBI hits from Paul Konerko and Joe Crede in the 7th and the Yanks have to summon Andrew Miller for his second straight appearance to try to hold onto the lead.  He does the job for the two innings he has left in him, and Chasen Shreve holds on in the 9th to eliminate the last White Sox team from the tournament, and send the Yankees on to the super-regional final with the 5-3 win.

Super-regional finals

The improbable march of the 2008 Mariners towards being a 100+ loss super-regional winner reaches the finals against a good 2015 Yankees team.  The finals merited a Zoom appearance by Seattle resident StratFan Rick to try to guide Ryan Rowland-Smith (5-3, 3.42) against the FNS managerial collective sending out swing starter Adam Warren (7-7, 3.29), with the Mariners saddled with the additional challenge of replacing injured 2b Jose Lopez.  Things start quietly enough but Rowland-Smith issues two walks in the top of the 2nd that turn to disaster when Didi Gregorius finds and converts the pitcher’s HR split for a three-run shot; then the next batter Chase Headley rolls the same result for back-to-back homers and a 4-0 lead.  In the bottom of the inning, some atrocious fielding by RF-4 Carlos Beltran sets up an RBI single for Jose Vidro, and then in the 4th a sac fly by Miguel Cairo narrows the gap to 4-2 Yanks.  However, Beltran atones with an insurance RBI in the top of the 6th, and virtually unhittable Dellin Betances comes out of the bullpen in the 8th to quell a Mariner threat and send the Yanks to the final field of 32 with a 5-2 victory.

Interesting card of Super-Regional EE:  Because the 2006 White Sox were the last representative of the franchise to be eliminated, I won’t have another opportunity to feature another player from my favorite team, so I thought I would take this last chance to feature a player who had won the World Series MVP immediately prior to this season.  Obviously, Dye did not rest on his laurels, having his career year despite the decline of the rest of the team and finishing 5th in the MVP voting on a disappointing squad.  In this project, he carried the Sox to round five, further than any other in franchise history, including the 2005 champs, who lost in the first round.  Plagued by injuries throughout his career, he ended up with 325 homers and a career OPS of .826, which while not Hall of Fame numbers should qualify him for the next Strat Baseball Heroes set, if there is one–I don’t see why he wasn’t in the Heroes 3 set already. At any rate, if I were to try to construct an all-time White Sox team based upon the best single-season cards off the top of my head, I believe that this one would be in right field.

SUPER-REGIONAL DD:  Of the six pennant-winners that began the first round in this field of 64 just one, the 1999 Braves, had hung on to make round four of the tournament, but there there were also a couple of division winners in this field and all had proved their grit in regional play.  I thought that those Braves and the Astros from the late 1990s would both be tough and guessed that they would match up in the final, with the Braves prevailing on the strength of an iconic starting rotation.  The ELO ratings predicted it would be a cakewalk for the Braves, predicting a win over a division-winning Brewers team to move on to the final field of 32.  

Round four action

The 1988 Red Sox seemed to have gotten past Bill Buckner’s miscue as they won 89 games, the AL East, and their regional, but now they faced a 1999 Braves team that won the NL pennant with 103 wins and one of the best rotations in the past several decades.  To demonstrate, their #4 starter in this project would be Tom Glavine (14-11, 4.12), still quite solid despite what was a down year for him; the Red Sox would counter with swingman Wes Gardner (8-6, 3.50).  The Red Sox score first on RBI hits from Larry Parrish and Jim Rice in the top of the 3rd, but like many good teams, the Braves respond immediately as Randall Simon drives in one and sets up a 3-run blast by Gerald Williams as the Braves take the lead.  They don’t stop there, with a two-run double from Bret Boone in the 4th, a two-run homer from Brian Hunter in the 5th, and another two-run blast from Ryan Klesko in the 8th batter a succession of Boston pitchers and when the final out is recorded by Glavine the Braves have cruised to an 11-3 win to continue to advance–with the top of their vaunted rotation coming up next round.

The 78-84 2022 Twins had ridden a couple of big games from Byron Buxton to take Regional #233, although 2B Jorge Polanco would be out with an injury in this round four game.  They faced the 1994 Red Sox, who limped to a 54-61 record before the strike shut the season down, but they had survived their regional despite three injuries in their first round game, including their ace Roger Clemens.  The limitation of the short season meant that for their #4 starter Boston had no option but to start a bad Danny Darwin (7-5, 6.30), while the Twins were in somewhat better shape with Dylan Bundy (6-8, 4.89) on the hill.  The Red Sox take a lead in the 2nd with an RBI double from Tim Naehring, then Otis Nixon knocks in another with a squib single.  After Mike Greenwell’s sac fly scores a third run, Mo Vaughn crushes a two-run homer and the Twins have seen enough of Bundy and hope that reliever Jovani Moran’s formidable card can stop the bleeding.  Minnesota gets on the board when Carlos Correa leads off the 4th finding Darwin’s solid 5-5 homer result, and when Jose Miranda doubles off a missed HR split he’s driven in by Gary Sanchez and the Boston lead shrinks to 5-2.  It becomes a one run game when Correa smacks a 2-run homer in the 5th, this one off his own card, but in the bottom of the inning Andre Dawson shoots a double past P-4 Moran that brings in two and Dawson scores on a Naehring sac fly as the Red Sox reassert an 8-4 lead.  They replace Darwin with Scott Bankhead to start the 6th, and he holds serve so Chris Howard takes over in the 8th hoping to close it out.  However, the Twins like the change and a couple of hits set up a run-scoring fielders choice; another hit sets up a 3-run homer by Luis Arraez off Howard’s card and the game is tied.  Howard leaves with a 52.73 ERA and closer Ken Ryan comes in; he’s immediately tagged for a double by Buxton but Correa is finally retired for the 3rd out.  However, in the top of the 9th injury replacement Alex Kirilloff rolls a 2-2 for a solid two run homer.  It’s now up to Twins closer Jorge Lopez to try to hang onto the Twins’s first lead of the game, and he does so, striking out PH Rich Rowland to preserve the 10-8 come-from-behind win that propels Minnesota into round five.

The 2011 Brewers won 96 games and the NL Central because of offensive power, a good rotation, and despite shaky infield defense; Randy Wolf (13-10, 3.69) was a solid option for a #4 starter in this round four matchup.  They faced the 2020 Padres, who had made the post-season in the pandemic year with a 37-23 record and had outscored their opposition in their regional 26 to 7.  Like all teams from that year, the Padres had a rotation strictly determined by IP and fortunately Garrett Richards (2-2, 4.03) was decent because their bullpen had been taxed in the previous two games.  However, the top of the first is a disaster for Richards, who walks four while errors from 3B-1 Manny Machado and 1B-3 Eric Hosmer combine for three Milwaukee runs, and it could have been worse without a caught stealing and an inning-ending DP with the bases loaded.  In the 2nd, Jurickson Profar gives the cardboard cutout fans something to cheer about with a bases loaded single that scores two to make it a one run game.  They then tie it when Fernando Tatis Jr. leads off the bottom of the 3rd with a triple, and he scores on a Machado single, but Corey Hart takes off his sunglasses at night for an RBI triple in the 5th putting the Brewers back in the lead.   When Jake Cronenworth doubles in the 6th, Milwaukee seeks to take no chances and summons closer John Axford and his 46 saves to try to escape the inning, and he is brilliant with a whiff and a lomax to end the threat.  A couple of singles in the top of the 7th and it’s San Diego’s turn to go to the pen, with Pierce Johnson inducing a DP to keep the game within one.  But Axford and Latroy Hawkins combine to keep the fearsome Padres hitters at bay and Milwaukee moves on with the 4-3 win. 

Houstonian Kevin took the opportunity to swing by Tournament Central and manage his 1997 Astros against me running the 2015 Diamondbacks.  The Astros won the NL Central that season but with only 83 wins, just slightly better than the 79 put up by the Dbacks.   However, the Astros had some other advantages such as a fully rested bullpen and a healthy lineup, while Arizona was down two different rightfielders to injury and extra inning games in the regional had taxed the pen.  For this round four game it would be Houston’s Shane Reynolds (9-10, 4.23) against Dback Chase Anderson (6-6, 4.30), and when the Astros began the top of the 1st with two straight doubles by Billy Spiers and Craig Biggio it was looking like it wouldn’t take long for Chase to be chased.   However, Anderson strands two and the Dbacks tie it in the bottom of the 3rd on a sac fly by Paul Goldschmidt.  It’s back to back doubles for Jeff Bagwell and Derek Bell in the 5th to put Houston up 2-1, but Houston has a problem in the bottom of the inning with a solo shot by AJ Pollock, and an RBI triple by David Peralta who then scores on a Wellington Castillo single and Arizona now leads 4-2 after five.  A solo homer by injury replacement Phil Gosselin provides some insurance, and although an RBI single from Chuck Carr narrows the margin in the 8th, closer Brad Zeigler comes in to exterminate the Killer B heart of the lineup to send the Diamondbacks on to round five with a 5-3 win and send Kevin back on the road with only one Astro team now still alive in the tournament.

The survivors:  round six

As with most round five games, the contestants were back to the top of their rotations meaning that the division-winning 2011 Brewers would have Shaun Marcum (13-7, 3.54) ready to go against Robbie Ray (5-12, 3.52) and the 2015 Diamondbacks.   The favored Brewers would be at full strength, while the Dbacks were still down two right fielders to injury and had some wear and tear on their bullpen from repeated close games.  In the top of the 1st, 1-16 Nyjer Morgan is nailed trying for an extra base on a Prince Fielder single, but eventually Fielder scores on a double from Corey Hart so Milwaukee does come away with a run.  In the 3rd, Ryan Braun converts a triple on Ray’s card and scores on a Fielder sac fly, but Welington Castillo grills a solo shot in the bottom of the 4th that narrows the Brewer lead to 2-1.  When Jonathan Lucroy doubles off Ray’s card in the 6th, Andrew Chafin comes in from the pen and quells the threat; the Dbacks respond in the bottom of the inning with a single and a Castillo double that puts the go-ahead run in scoring position with nobody out.  It’s now the Brewers’ turn to look to the pen, and Takashi Saito gets the call–but he issues a walk and then allows a 2-run double to Jake Lamb and the Dbacks take the lead.  Saito then finds his stuff and gets out of the inning without further damage, but Arizona can now summon Brad Ziegler to begin the 8th in search of his second straight save.  He goes into the 9th and retires two straight pinch-hitters, but Nyjer Morgan singles to put the tying run aboard and major threat Braun at the plate.  But Ziegler prevails, whiffing Braun and preserving the 3-2 win that sends the upstart Dbacks to round six, where starting RF Ender Inciarte is expected to come off the DL and rejoin the lineup.  

The 1999 Braves were back at the front of a very strong rotation, with Kevin Millwood (18-7, 2.68) a 3rd place finisher for the Cy Young award, despite a rather rocky round one start.  For the 2022 Twins, it would be Sonny Gray (8-5, 3.08) who had won his first round game thanks to a three home run performance by CF Byron Buxton.  An RBI single from DH Randall Simon puts the Braves up 1-0 in the bottom of the 1st, and things stay that way until injury replacement Eddie Perez hits a solo shot in the 5th, with Andruw Jones driving in another later in the inning with a missed HR split double.  In the 8th, it’s Bret Boone’s turn for a solo home run that provides some unnecessary padding, as Millwood finishes out a 4-hit shutout in dominating the Twins and sending the Braves on to the super-regional final with the 4-0 win.

Super-regional finals

Brother Chuck had rolled the 1999 Braves through the super-regional to this final game, and so he and John Smoltz (11-8, 3.19) would try to guide them to the final field of 32 against me with the 2015 Diamondbacks and Josh Collmenter (4-6, 3.79).   The Braves had won five straight courtesy of a legendary rotation, with Smoltz’s three-hit shutout in round two being one highlight; the Dbacks had gotten this far with some improbable come from behind wins, such as a four-run walk-off explosion in round two and a three-run walk-off in the 10th inning in round three.   Here, though, it’s Arizona who starts out ahead with a David Peralta sac fly in the bottom of the 3rd, but it all comes crashing down on Collmenter in the top of the 5th.  A six-run barrage that includes a 3-run homer by Chipper Jones and a 2 run double from Brian Hunter sends the Dbacks to the pen for Andrew Chafin, who finally ends the inning; Arizona then rallies for three in the bottom of the inning that includes a Welington Castillo homer and the lead narrows to 6-4.  The Dbacks thus appear poised for another comeback, but Hunter adds a run in the 6th on a sac fly, and Smoltz is looking sharp in the final innings–that is, until the second out of the 9th inning, when he’s injured for 15 games and the vaunted Braves rotation is down a man for the remainder of the tournament.  Russ Springer comes on to record the final out and the pennant-winning Braves capture the super-regional with a 7-4 victory to earn a berth among the final 32 teams, albeit without injured Javy Lopez and John Smoltz for the sectional matchups.

Interesting card of Super-Regional DD:   The 1999 Atlanta Braves reeled off six straight wins in this tournament to capture the super-regional, which is not terribly surprising given that three of the four pitchers in their starting rotation for the tournament were Hall-of-Famers named Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz.  Thing is, none of those three were the #1 starter for the NL champ, 103-win Braves; instead, it was this guy, who at age 24 finished 3rd in the Cy Young balloting while also receiving votes for NL MVP.   Despite this great season and a 16-year career that totaled 169 wins, I’m not sure many could name him in a trivia question about the final cog in the Braves rotation.  The Atlanta rotations of that era always seemed to come up with a fourth starter who was impressive with the Braves but a disappointment after they moved on (yes, Steve Avery and Denny Neagle, we’re looking at you), and Millwood was not really an exception to this trend; although he did lead the AL in ERA with Cleveland in 2005, he also led the league in losses with the Orioles in 2010.  In the first round, I felt a little uneasy starting Millwood over the three HOFers, and it didn’t help when Millwood failed to last four innings, getting bailed out by John Rocker and two homers/five RBI from Chipper Jones for a comeback win.  But Millwood proved his mettle in the super-regional with a four-hit shutout in his second start of the tournament, and despite a project-ending injury to Smoltz in the super-regional final, these Braves have to be considered a strong contender to go all the way.