SUPER-REGIONAL T:  This group of eight seemed to include a variety of unlikely contenders considering that six pennant winners had begun this group of 64, but none of them had survived past round three.   Of the eight that did persevere, not many were within hailing distance of an epic season, with the Rays being two years post their first pennant, and for the Mets and Brewers pennants would be 5+ years away.  Picking from among this group seemed to be a total crapshoot, but I figure the Brewers would emerge from the top half of the bracket and fall to the Rays in the finals.  The ELO rankings agreed with that prediction, portraying the four teams in the bottom of the bracket as much better than the dubious group at the top.

Round four action

Two rather unlikely regional winners square off in this round four matchup.  The 1976 Padres went 73-89 but pulled off three straight upsets to win Regional #153; however, they now faced the bane of the underdog squads in going to the bottom of their rotation in the form of Tom Griffin (9-6, 4.10), who was a base on balls waiting to happen.  The 1990 Brewers had a similar record at 74-88 but they sported a much better ELO ranking, and they did have some Hall of Famers such as Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, and the newly inducted Dave Parker; Mark Knudson (10-9, 4.12) was tapped for the start from a variety of options.  The Padres jump to a quick lead in the top of the 1st on an RBI single from Dave Winfield that gets past SS-3 Bill Spiers, but Winfield is caught stealing by BJ Surhoff to prevent further damage.  Both pitchers work their way out of jams until Parker delivers a 2-out RBI single in the bottom of the 5th that ties the game, and Gary Sheffield follows with another for a Brewers lead.   When Griffin yields a double to Greg Vaughn and a walk in the 6th, he’s gone for Dave Tomlin, who ends the threat with no damage.   However, in the 8th Timlin is injured for the tournament, and Butch Metzger holds to send the game to the 9th with the Padres still down by a run.  But Knudson tosses a perfect 9th to hold on for the 2-1 Brewers victory and the end of the line for the upstart Padres. 

Another couple of teams that had no business making it to round four of the tournament, the 97-loss 2009 Royals and Kyle Davies (8-9, 5.27) taking on the arguably worse 64-90 1947 Senators, with Mickey Haefner (10-14, 3.64) sporting a nice card for a #4 starter on a 90-loss team that was no doubt enhanced by pitching in spacious Griffith Stadium.  The task for the Royals was complicated by lengthy injuries suffered by Mark Teahen and Alex Gordon in their regional final, and RF-2 Mitch Maier doesn’t help matters when he misplays an Eddie Yost single in the top of the 2nd that allows a run to score.  Things just get worse for the Royals when 2B Alberto Callaspo gets injured for 10 games in the bottom of the inning, with the KC bench already badly depleted.  A Sherry Robertson RBI double in the 4th makes it 2-0 Senators, and run-scoring singles from Stan Spence and Al Evans in the 5th extend it to a four-run lead.  The Royals try Jamey Wright from the pen to begin the 6th, and he holds the Nats scoreless for four innings.  However, that’s not quite as good as Haefner, who blanks the battered Royals for nine innings and finishes up a 2-hit shutout as the Senators move on with a 4-0, while the Royals return to the storage drawers to nurse their wounds.  

There were no particular partisans for the Zoom game of the week between the 2010 Rays and the 2007 A's; Tall Tactician liked the look of the 96-win, AL East-winning Rays while brother Chuck would try to squeeze the last dime out of the moneyball A’s, who had handled three pretty good teams in winning Regional #158 despite a mediocre 76-86 record.  Both managers were uneasy about their #4 starters, Wade Davis (12-10, 4.07) for the Rays and Chad Gaudin (11-13, 4.42) for Oakland, and were convinced this was going to be a high scoring affair.  Sure enough, the A’s Milton Bradley proves he’s a gamer with a solo homer off Davis’s generous gopher ball options in the bottom of the 1st, and although an RBI double in the top of the 2nd by Sean Rodriguez makes it a tie game, Mark Ellis homers in the bottom of the inning to put Oakland back on top, 2-1.  However, for the rest of his appearance Gaudin can’t escape an inning without allowing a run, with a Carl Crawford homer tying it in the 3rd, a 2-out RBI single by #9 hitter Bartlett in the 4th, and a run scoring single by Carlos Pena in the 5th providing Tampa with a 4-2 lead.   Meanwhile, Davis has taken control of the game for the Rays, but TT doesn’t trust those homer results and in the 6th moves immediately to Grant Balfour, but that turns out poorly as A’s DH Jack Cust crushes a 2-run homer to tie the game…one that would have been a 3-run homer but Shannon Stewart had been caught stealing.  Chuck then summons the A’s sole decent available relief pitcher, Huston Street, and although the Rays threaten, none score and the game enters the 8th still knotted.  At this point TT opts for the imposing Joaquin Benoit and his 1.34 ERA to try to send the game to extra innings, at which point Street will be toast with only terrible options remaining for the A’s.  However, Nick Swisher foils that plan with a long solo homer, and Street ends his eligibility for the super-regional with a 1-2-3 9th to seal the 5-4 win for the A’s and a trip to round five.  

This round four matchup was a Zoom game of the week, with Toronto-area resident Eaglesfly taking the reins of the 2000 Blue Jays.  The Jay had a middling 83-79 record despite oozing with steroid-era power that had bashed their way through Regional #160, but their rotation also bore the scars of that era and their #4 starter, Steve Trachsel (8-15, 4.80) was certainly no exception.  ColavitoFan volunteered to steer the 1995 Mets, who had a 69-75 record in that strike-shortened season that narrowed his #4 starting options to one:  Dave Mlicki (9-7, 4.26), and to make matters worse they would be without the services of injured 2B Jeff Kent for the foreseeable future.  The game begins ominously for the Jays, as Trachsel is injured while walking the first batter of the game, forcing a move to an already depleted bullpen resulting from some tough regional games.  Paul Quantrill then comes on and promptly allows a run-scoring double to Rico Brogna and the Mets move out to a 1-0 lead.  Unfortunately for the Mets, Mlicki does not get injured while allowing four hits to the Jays in the bottom of the 1st, including RBI hits from Carlos Delgado and Darren Fletcher, and Shannon Stewart adds another in the 2nd as the Jays move out to a 3-1 lead.  Mlicki then fails to get anyone out in the 3rd until allowing a 3-run homer to Tony Batista, and the Jays lead 6-1 but the good news is that ColavitoFan can finally pull the terrible Mlicki and Jason Isringhausen gets the assignment.  In the 4th, a last-minute lineup adjustment by ColavitoFan pays off as Chris Jones leads off the inning with a homer that narrows the gap to 6-2, and Ryan Thompson’s sac fly in the 6th makes it 6-3 as the Mets slowly inch back into the game.  In the top of the 7th, the Jays insert Lance Painter as their 4th pitcher of the game, and he paints the Jays a disastrous picture, yielding five hits including a big 2-run double to Brogna; by the time he’s pulled after recording only two outs, the Mets now hold a one run lead.  From there, it’s Doug Henry and John Franco thwarting the power-packed Jays lineup and the Mets pull off the remarkable comeback for the 7-6 win.  

The survivors:  round five

Two teams with losing records that nonetheless survived to round five, the 1990 Brewers and the 1947 Senators square off to determine which of them will play for the super-regional title.   Both teams were back to the top of their rotation, with the Nats’ Walt Masterson (12-16, 3.13) and Milwaukee’s Ted Higuera (11-10, 3.76) getting the honors.  In the bottom of the 1st, Buddy Lewis (who had just been the subject of a Friday Night Strat trivia question) hits a 2-out RBI double to give the Senators a quick lead, while Masterson is masterful in repeatedly bailing out the bad Nats defense.  The Brewers threaten in the top of the 7th with 1st and 3rd with one out, and the Senators bring in the infield; A-stealer Paul Molitor is tossed out trying to steal second and Masterson fans the next two batters to end the threat.  The Brewers get the tying run in scoring position in the 9th, but Masterson induces a grounder out of Molitor for the third out and the unlikely Washington Senators head to the super-regional finals with the 1-0 shutout gem. 

Brother Chuck had led the 2007 A’s to a come-from-behind win in round four, and although in the process he had burnt Oakland’s best reliever, he would have top-of-the-rotation Dan Haren (15-9, 3.07) on the mound, with RF Travis Buck still out with an injury suffered in the regional.  The matchup against a 1995 Mets team that had pulled off a remarkable comeback in their prior game seemed to merit a Zoom faceoff, and I would try to continue their luck with Bill Pulsipher (5-7, 3.98) hopefully doing better than he had in his round one start that had been won by his bullpen, a game in which Jeff Kent suffered an injury that continued to keep him out of the lineup.  Despite their best hopes, once again Pulsipher proves generous with the hits, yielding a series of RBI hits to Nick Swisher, Mark Ellis, and Dan Johnson as the Mets again are faced with a steep deficit after the top of the 1st.  However, as has been their way they immediately chip away at the lead, with a run scoring on a double play ball hit by Bobby Bonilla and a 2-out RBI single by Todd Hundley narrowing the gap to 3-2 in the bottom of the 1st.  Edgardo Alfonso ties the game in the bottom of the 2nd with an RBI single but Eric Chavez homers to lead off the 3rd to reestablish an Oakland lead.  In the 4th, Chaves adds a 2-run triple giving him the two hard parts of a cycle, and he scores on a Johnson single and it’s 7-3 A’s; the good news for the Mets is that Pulsipher can now be pulled, and Mike Birkbeck comes in to hold the A’s at bay for four innings.  In the meantime, Hundley picks up another RBI hit in the 5th and Rico Brogna makes up for missing a HR 1-16 split earlier with a solid HR solo shot in the 7th, and once again the Mets appear to be creeping back into the game.  A leadoff triple by Johnson in the 8th and I decide to go with John Franco for the strikeout to keep the Mets in the game; however, he does one better, with a LOMAX wiping out the running at third and a whiff to finish the inning with emphasis.  However, Mark Ellis gets to Franco with an RBI double in the top of the 9th, meaning that the A’s take an 8-5 lead into the bottom of the inning needing three outs to move on.  With little to work with in the pen, Chuck lets Haren take his shot at the final inning, but after recording an out Jose Vizcaino slaps a base hit, bringing up Bobby Bonilla; Chuck, showing inordinate fear of Bonilla, or perhaps his contract, opts to intentionally walk Bonilla for the second time in the game, a controversial move that puts the tying run at the plate in the form of Todd Hundley.  Hundley then draws a bases on balls, and suddenly the tying run is aboard and Chris Jones steps to the plate.  Now, Jones is only in the game because ColavitoFan had opted for his bat over Tim Bogar’s glove in the prior game, and I had retained that lineup since, after all, it had worked swimmingly in the prior round.  So Haren delivers, the roll is 1-6; a solid home run for a walk-off grand slam that gives the Miracle Mets a 9-8 victory.  A little research revealed that this is actually the 5th walk-off home run of the tournament, and the second (after the 1954 White Sox, how could I forget) to be immortalized on a Zoom game. 

Super-Regional final:  round six

In a very unlikely matchup for a super-regional final, the 64-90 1947 Senators, winners of five straight upsets, found themselves facing the 1995 Mets, who had put together two remarkable comebacks in their past two games to reach this spot.   The Nats would again be the underdogs according to the ELO ratings, but the Mets had some factors that might be equalizers, with Jeff Kent still out to injury, and closer John Franco burnt while their starter Pete Harnisch (2-8, 3.68) was not a Hall of Famer, unlike Washington’s Early Wynn (17-15, 3.64).  The Mets get to start playing from behind once again when the Senators get runs via a Mickey Vernon single and a 2-out double by Sherry Robertson, but Harnisch settles down and the Mets narrow the gap in the 4th when Bobby Bonilla leads off with a tape measure homer.  Two batters later, it’s round five hero Chris Jones with a long 2-run blast and the Mets have uncharacteristically come back to take the lead early in the game.  Although Harnisch is now mowing down the Nats, the Mets move to Jason Isringhausen to begin the 8th, but he loads the bases with two singles and a walk, and then he walks Stan Spence to tie the game with still nobody out.  After a lineout, PH Rick Ferrell laces a 2-run single, another PH Gil Coan adds an RBI single, and Eddie Yost provides a sac fly and suddenly the Mets are once again looking at another large late-inning deficit.  A single to begin the top of the 9th chases Isringhausen, but Doug Henry promptly loads the bases and Mickey Vernon drives the ball through a drawn-in infield and Farrell adds a sac fly and the Mets need another miracle staring at a six run deficit in the bottom of the 9th.  But Wynn isn’t having it, and the Mets go down as the Senators record a statement 9-3 win and become one of the most improbable teams to advance to the final field of 32.  

Interesting card of Super-Regional T:  At first, this may appear to be a partial rerun of this feature from Regional #155, which featured the card of the inestimable Gil Coan, but bear with me, because this is going to turn into a rant (warning: some math ahead).  Now, Mr. Coan once again helped lead his 1947 Senators to victory as a late inning sub, with 6 straight upsets putting them into the final 32 surviving teams in this tournament.  However, if you want to read my writeup on Mr. Coan, I'll refer you to my blog for his regional results, because here I want to take time to express my irritation with the game company for their latest assault on my White Sox.  To begin the math portion of our presentation, getting Mr. Coan to hit .500 is a difficult feat, because for the 50% of rolls where he is on the pitcher's card, he will only hit .256, the league average for the 1947 AL.  He makes up for that with a card on which 68.6% of at-bat results is a hit, which averages out to a projected batting average of .471--not quite .500, but I'll take it.  Now, consider the case of Eddie Murphy from the 1919 White (Black) Sox of the recently issued Deadball Diamond Gems.  Eddie's .486 average puts him in the same ballpark as Gil's--but his card doesn't, because only 37.9% of the AB results are hits.  Combine that with a .268 league average for the 1919 AL, and Eddie's card should be good for a .323 average: not .486, not Ted Williams, not even Pete Rose.  Now, perhaps for some reason Strat wanted to normalize Diamond Gems cards against each other--however, because of the quality of pitching on those teams, the "league average" would be even lower and Murphy would hit for even less.  But even that excuse can be ruled out based upon teammate Shoeless Joe's Diamond Gems card, where Jackson's .351 average presents as a card with 42.7% of ABs resulting in hits, combining for a .348 average against 1919 AL pitching--pretty close.  So why pick on Eddie Murphy--was it because of Beverly Hills Cop III?  Assuming not, I am left with two possible conclusions:  1) that Strat made a mistake and that we are owed an errata card for Murphy (for which I'm not holding my breath), or 2) that Strat suddenly decided (since Coan's 1947 card was only released a few years ago) to provide low AB wonders like Murphy (and Coan and the like) with "imagined" cards, based upon Strat's voodoo projections similar to the 2020 "imagined" or the Negro League DG teams.  If it's the latter, count me in the “opposed” category.  Just give me the card that is merited by the actual stats, and I'll decide how to use it, thank you.  I may be in the minority, but it is an empirical question:  just how well do you think those "2020 imagined" cards sold?