SUPER-REGIONAL M:   Of the five pennant winners that began the tournament in this group of 64, only one had managed to put together three wins in a row to reach this level.  Even so, this batch looked like a group of very competitive teams, although there was a Reds team that didn’t really seem to belong here.  There would be old school greats like the Babe and Willie Mays rubbing shoulders with more modern stars like Jimmy Rollins and Kris Bryant.  I thought the upper half of this division was extremely tough, and although I was pulling for the older squads, I suspected that the Cubs from the season following their historic championship would make the finals just to spite me; I predicted that they would get their comeuppance from a Phillies team from an era that had been uncannily successful in this tournament.  The ELO ratings didn’t account for the tendency for the Cubs to torment me, and predicted Babe’s Yankees would top the Phils to move on to the final 32.

Round four action

Two strong teams from very different eras meet as the 92-60 1934 Yankees of Ruth and Gehrig face off against the 92-70 2017 Cubs, a year after they had broken the curse of the billy goat.  The Yankees had serious injury problems, with their top two 2B both out and a rotation thrown into chaos by a 10-game DL trip for Red Ruffing, so their defense would be dismal behind an already hittable Jimmie DeShong (6-7, 4.11).  On the other hand, the Cubs would be at full strength with C Wilson Contreras returning from injury and a deep and rested bullpen available to support an already capable Jake Arrieta (14-10, 3.53) as the #4 starter.  In the 3rd, Earle Combs doubles past CF-3 Jon Jay to drive in a run and Gehrig adds another with a sac fly, but the Yanks leave the bases loaded and fail to improve upon the 2-0 lead.  However, the Cubs get a setback when LF Ian Happ hits into a DP to end the bottom of the inning, and gets injured for 8 games in the process, meaning he’s gone for the tournament.  Of course, the dice gods can’t permit the Cubs to be disadvantaged, so immediately in the 5th Ruth gets hurt, he’s out for 6 games, and it’s farewell to the Sultan of Swat most likely for the remainder of the project, although George Selkirk takes out some of the sting with an RBI single for a 3-0 lead.  The inevitable Cubs comeback begins in the 6th with a 2-run double by Contreras, and when Ben Chapman leads off the 7th with a single, the North Siders yank Arrieta and the largely unhittable Carl Edwards Jr. comes in, but he issues a walk and then Bill Dickey drives an RBI single to provide an insurance run.   Edwards then holds the Yanks, and the Cubs get the tying runs aboard in the bottom of the 9th with two out, courtesy of a walk and a Jay single, and then a Javier Baez base hit scores one and Jay is at second with imposing Kris Bryant at the plate.  And yes, predictably he singles, 1-14+2 Jay races home to tie the game and Baez takes third to put the game winner 90 feet away for injury replacement Albert Almora.  And yes, he rolls the 4th straight single with 2 outs and the Cubs walk it off scoring three runs with two out in the bottom of the 9th for a 5-4 win, proving that the dice just love to have the Cubs torture me while any decent White Sox teams were eliminated in the first round.

The Zoom game of the week features two strong squads, with Toronto’s own Eaglesfly at the helm of the 89-win, AL East winning 1989 Blue Jays, with me rolling the dice on his “behalf”, while the Friday Night Strat College of Coaches would guide the 90-win 1964 Giants and brother Chuck would provide his dice-rolling skills on their behalf.   The Jays send out Mike Flanagan (8-10, 3.93) , while after some debate the College settles on Ron Herbel (9-9, 3.07) as their #4 starter.  And, it appears that the College chose unwisely, as Herbel fails to record a single out, with five straight hits punctuated by an intentional walk to load the bases for Junior Felix, who looks more senior in swatting a grand slam and Herbel exits after allowing 6 runs for an infinite ERA.  The College then opts for one of the other starter alternatives, Bob Bolin, and it looks like they should have gone with him to start with as he retires the side without further damage.   Tom Haller drives in a run in the bottom of the 1st and the long comeback trail begins, and while Bolin holds off the Jays Haller nails a three-run homer in his next at-bat, and Orlando Cepeda singles in a run in the 4th and suddenly we’re looking at a one-run game and Eaglesfly yanks an ineffective Flanagan as he’s confident in the Jays strong pen, with Duane Ward coming in to end any further threat.  The Giants move to veteran Billy Pierce in the 6th and he continues to take advantage of my terrible dicework, but Ward holds the fort until a single in the bottom of the 8th is a cue to move to dominating Toronto closer Tom Henke.  And….that doesn’t go well, as Cepeda doubles in the tying run to bring up NL home run leader Willie Mays; Chuck rolls right in the midst of a fat group of homer results and it’s a 2-run shot for the Giants first lead of the game.  That’s it for Henke, but the horse has left the barn and Jim Duffalo sets down the Jays in the 9th as the Giants complete a remarkable comeback for an 8-6 win, and a return to the top of the rotation for round five.

The 2008 Phillies were the only pennant winner still surviving in this super-regional, as they won 92 games and the World Series over the Rays.  However, they had been hit by the injury bug in winning Regional #101, losing star 2B Chase Utley for the entire duration of this super-regional and in the regional final an early injury to SP Brett Myers had taxed the bullpen, meaning that a hittable Joe Blanton (9-12, 4.69) needed to put in some useful innings.  Still, they had to be considered as favorites over the 1941 Pirates, but these Pirates had outscored their opposition 21-3 in their regional, and those three complete game wins meant that they could use their best reliever, Dutch Dietz (7-2, 2.34) in his spot starter role here.  But in the top of the 1st Dutch watches his LF-4 Maurice Robays turn a Shane Victorino liner into a double, and then Jayson Werth smacks a hard single to bring the runner home.  A rattled Dietz then grooves one to Ryan Howard who puts it over the Forbes wall for a rapid 3-0 Philly lead.  However, the injury bug hits the Phils again as Werth is lost until the super-regional final, and when LF-4 Pat Burrell misplays an Elbie Fletcher single to allow a run to score in the bottom of the inning, it feels like the momentum is shifting.  Although Dietz holds the Phils hitless for 4 straight innings, Jimmy Rollins leads off the 6th with a walk, steals 2nd against the strong arm of C-1 Al Lopez, and then scores on a Victorino to add to the Phils lead.  Lopez then throws AA Victorino out trying to steal to end the threat, and when the Pirates begin the bottom of the inning with a walk and a single, the Phils opt to try the deeper recesses of their bullpen and try JC Romero, and despite a walk that loads the bases Romero strands all runners to sustain the 4-1 lead entering the 7th.  Victorino then blows the game open with a 3-run homer in the top of the 7th, although yet another injury, this one to DH Greg Dobbs, hits the beleaguered Phils in the 8th.  Armed with a six run lead, the Phils send out mop-up reliever Tom Gordon to begin the bottom of the 8th, and he is helped when Pedro Feliz leads off the 9th with an insurance homer.  From there, Gordon closes out the 8-1 win without incident and the Phils advance to round five, but with a third of their starting lineup injured.  

Two contemporary teams meet in this round four game, although pretty different in their rankings.  The 2017 Cardinals were a decent 83-79 team that underperformed their Pythagorean prediction, and they had knocked off two stronger teams in Regional #103 on their way here.  The good news for the Cards was that DH Matt Carpenter was back from an injury suffered in the regional semifinals; the bad news was that uninspiring #4 starter Mike Leake (7-12, 4.21) did not have their best relief pitcher available after a crucial stint in the regional final.  Still, they should be favored over the 95-loss 2018 Reds, who managed to win their regional as the #8 seed, but in the process had lost their starting SS and 3B to injury for the remainder of the tournament.  Also, befitting a 95-loss team, their #4 starter options were gruesome, with Anthony DeSclafani (7-8, 4.98) hoping to make it five innings to turn things over to a fully rested bullpen.  This one had the makings of a high-scoring affair, and that seems confirmed when the first hitter of the game, Kolten Wong, hits a solid HR result on DeSclafani, and three hits later Jose Martinez drives in a run to make it 2-0.   Tommy Pham finds and converts DeSclafani’s split HR result to lead off the 3rd, but the Reds starter manages to get through five innings without further damage and they move to David Hernandez in the 6th to try to keep within reach.  However, in the 7th Dexter Fowler drops a 2-run single in front of LF-4 Jesse Winker to add to the Cards lead, and the Reds don’t get on the board until Scott Schebler leads off the bottom of the 9th with a long homer.  Joey Votto then misses a HR split, but he scores anyway when Dilson Herrera follows with a tape measure shot and suddenly it’s a 2-run game with nobody out, and the Cards find that their lead is Leake-ing away.  They bring in Samuel Tuivailala to try to get the save, and he slams the door on the Reds retiring three in a row to preserve a 5-3 win for the Cards that didn’t come without a scare.  

The survivors:  round five

This round five matchup features two squads that had posted dramatic come-from-behind wins in round four against very strong opponents, and it was back to the top of the rotation for both teams.  That meant that the 1964 Giants would have Hall of Famer Juan Marichal (21-8, 2.48) on the mound against Jose Quintana (11-11, 4.15) of the 2017 Cubs in a freezing but sold out Candlestick Park.  The Giants get off to a rough start when in the 3rd C-3 Tom Haller commits the second error of the game for SF and that runner scores on a Javier Baez single; the Cubs plate another on an Anthony Rizzo sac fly and Chicago moves out to a 2-0 lead.  However, the Cubs return the bad fielding favors with an error from 2B-3 Ben Zobrist that scores one in the bottom of the inning, and then 3B-3 Kris Bryant drops another run-scoring grounder in the 4th and the game is tied.  In the 5th, Baez gets only the second hit against Marichal, both by him, and this one is a long solo blast to put the Cubs up once again, but Tom Haller does the same in the 7th and when Willie McCovey doubles on a missed HR 1-14 split that would have been back to backs, Quintana gives way to Wade Davis who hits the hole in Harvey Kuenn’s best column to end the inning, but the game is tied heading into the 8th.  After Davis gets Willie Mays to hit into a double play in the bottom of the 9th, the Cubs bring in Justin Wilson to record the last out and the game heads to extra innings: the second start in a row Marichal has headed into the 10th inning.  As he did in round one, Marichal does his job in inning 10, completing his eligibility with only two hits allowed and nine strikeouts. However, the Giants can’t score in the bottom of the inning and their heavy use of the bullpen in round four now haunts them as Jim Duffalo comes out and holds serve in the 11th.  In the bottom of the inning, offensive replacement Jim Davenport walks with one out and Jesus Alou singles him to third, so Wilson now must face the heart of the Giants order with the winning run 90 feet away.  The infield comes in for Orlando Cepeda, who responds with a gbA to put the runners on 2nd and 3rd, Mays up, two away.  For a team to advance in this project, their stars need to come through in the clutch, and Mays does so, ripping a single for the walk-off 4-3 win that pushes the Giants into the super-regional final.

With injuries to 2B Chase Utley, RF Jayson Werth and DH Greg Dobbs, the 2008 Phillies had to look on the bright side as they returned to the top of their rotation for Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09) and closer Brad Lidge was fully rested if needed for extended service.  Still, the 2017 Cardinals also had their top starter, Carlos Martinez (12-11, 3.64) on the mound who had tossed a 2-hit shutout in round one, and they were completely healthy behind him.  Martinez strikes out the side in the top of the 1st to the delight of the Busch Stadium faithful, while the Cards look like Lady Luck is on their side as Paul DeJong rips a gbA++ RBI single thanks to the held Tommy Pham, and although the roll is also an injury, the 3 split keeps DeJong in the game.  Jose Martinez then converts a SI* 1-6 for another run, and although Hamels finally ends the frame by turning a DP himself, the Cards lead 2-0 after an inning.  However, replacement DH Matt Stairs ends the Martinez streak of strikeouts at four with a single, and then Pedro Feliz discovers that Martinez sports a juicy 6-5 HR result that he converts to tie the game. Then, in the 3rd it’s Ryan Howard’s turn as he crushes a long 2-run blast to put the Phils ahead, and when Pat Burrell leads off the 6th with a double and scores on a base hit by Stairs the Cards yank Martinez for Tyler Lyons, but he’s not the answer either as Geoff Jenkins adds an RBI single and Lyons loads the bases up for a 2-run single from Shane Victorino as the Phils take an imposing 8-2 lead.  With nothing to lose, the Cards bring in closer Trevor Rosenthal to begin the 7th, but Burrell greets him with a triple and he trots home on a Stairs single to pad the lead further.  Fortune finally smiles on the Phils as Burrell rolls an injury in the 8th, but the 2 split means he’s able to stay in the game, although the Phils feel they should wrap the remainder of their lineup in foam padding to keep them healthy.  Hamels shows some signs of tiring in the 8th, as Pham doubles in a run but Hamels strands three runners to end the inning still in command.  He proves that convincingly by striking out the side in the bottom of the 9th to finish with 11 Ks in the 9-3 win that sends the Phils to the super-regional finals, where they will be rejoined by Werth and Dobbs in their quest to make the final round of 32.  

Super-regional final:  round six

The super-regional final was also the Zoom game of the week, with Philadelphian Tall Tactician assuming the reins of the 2008 Phillies and the 1964 Giants helmed by ColavitoFan, who had led the College of Coaches that gave the Giants their come from behind victory in round four.  It was 25-year old Gaylord Perry (12-11, 2.75) on the mound for the Giants, while the Phillies went with the other end of the age spectrum in 45-year old Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.71), and the Philly faithful were happy that Jayson Werth and Greg Dobbs were back from injury, although MVP vote-getter 2B Chase Utley would still be on the DL for a few more games.  Even so, the returning Phils make their presence felt quickly, with Werth and Dobbs taking advantage of an error by lead-gloved 3B-4 Jim Ray Hart to drive in runs that stake their team to a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 4th.  Meanwhile, Moyer seems to have discovered the fountain of youth, but in the 7th Jesus Alou finds Moyer’s HR split for a solo shot that makes it a one run game.  However, Perry allows a hit and a walk to begin the bottom of the 7th, and ColavitoFan decides Perry has run out of Vaseline, but the Giants bullpen has been severely depleted in their previous come-from behind wins.  So, in a controversial move CF summons a startled Ron Herbel, who had started round four but got nobody out while allowing six runs.  Herbel, given a chance to redeem himself, does anything but:  between more Giant errors and Phils hits, Herbel once again fails to record a single out, allowing both of Perry’s runs to score and adding two more tallies of his own, and he’s yanked for Bob Shaw.  Shaw promptly grooves one to Ryan Howard, who has done nothing before this point other than strike out, and Howard finally makes contact for a 3-run shot to cap a 6-run inning.  Herbel thus amasses the impressive numbers of 0 innings pitched, 10 runs allowed, which would have to be the worse ERA in the tournament if it were possible to calculate it.  Shane Victorino adds an RBI double in the 8th, and Chad Durbin holds off the Giants in relief of Moyer as the Phils take the easy 9-1 win, as four errors help send the Giants back into storage.  The Phils thus move on to the final group of 32, needing just two more wins to get Utley back at 2B in time for the Elite Eight.

Interesting card of Super-Regional M:  This all-time great carried his team to the super-regional final, but ultimately he couldn’t do it alone, and some terrible fielding and pitching by a few of his teammates doomed the Giants after five straight wins.   The 1964 Mays didn’t get featured when they won the regional, so I figured I’d make up for it here, with the added bonus of having an opportunity to compare the ORIGINAL ‘64 Mays with the more modern presentation.  Given the 40-some odd years of tweaking the Strat formulas that likely occurred between the printing of these two cards, the similarity is pretty striking–although as usual I prefer the old card look to the newer one.  As for 1964, despite leading the NL in homers, SLG%, and OPS, Mays only finished 6th in the MVP voting, perhaps because of his teams’ 4th place finish despite being only three games off the pennant.  One interesting footnote to this season is that these Giants were rife with tension resulting from racist comments offered by their manager, Alvin Dark, during the season–comments that obviously did not sit well with a team stacked with black and Latin players.  By all reports, Mays played a critical role in attempting to mediate the relationship between the manager and the players, but it’s hard to imagine that these issues did not impact the team in the midst of a tight pennant run.  Dark was ultimately fired on the last day of the season, and under new manager Herman Franks Mays won his 2nd and final MVP award the following season–although the Giants still fell short in the pennant race, this time by two games.