REGIONAL #237: In the draw for this bracket I knew there was one pennant winner, as I attended Game 3 of their first World Series, in their park although I was pulling for the visiting team. That pennant winner was the 2005 Astros, and it looked to me like they drew their toughest competition for the first round, a Red Sox squad that was a year away from their first Series championship since trading the Babe. Among other entries was an Indians group that had won the AL the prior season and a Diamondbacks team two seasons before their first NL pennant; the remaining four teams I suspected were middling, meaning that they were dark horse candidates worth betting on as a field. Being most familiar with the pennant winning Astros, I figured that they had the best conbo of pitching and offensive punch and would take the bracket with a win over the Indians in the finals. Consulting the ELO rankings after making my picks, as is customary, I was surprised to discover that those Indians had one of the best season-ending ELO ranks in history, and that the Astros were only the third best team in the bottom part of the bracket, with both the Dbacks and the Red Sox ranked as better teams. Nonetheless, those rankings agreed with me that there were no terrible teams here, meaning that anything could happen, and probably will.
First round action
Although the #6 seeded 2005 Rangers and the #7 seed 2009 A’s were among the bottom-ranked teams in this regional, their actual ratings were pretty good. The Rangers finished under .500 at 79-83 but according to their Pythagorean projection they shouldn’t have, as they had a power-laden offense with Mark Teixeira finishing 7th in the MVP votes with 43 homers, and the DP combo of Michael Young and Alfonso Soriano combined for another 60 round trips. However, the pitching staff was a problem, with Texas gambling on Kenny Rogers (14-8, 3.46) for the round one start. Meanwhile, the A’s went 75-87 while projecting as a .500 team, but they didn’t have the firepower of the Rangers’ and their top starter, Brett Anderson (11-11, 4.09) was hardly a dominating presence. Still, the A’s give him an early lead when Rajai Davis triples in the 3rd and scores on a squib single from Matt Holliday, but they give the run back when an error from 2B-2 Mark Ellis allows Texas to score a run in the bottom of the 5th. However, Ellis atones by leading off the 7th converting a SI 1-8, and because he’s held Jason Giambi slices a gbA++ single to put runners on the corners with nobody out, so Texas decides to fold ‘em on Rogers for closer Francisco Cordero. He can’t prevent a sac fly from Rajai Davis and the A’s regain the lead, and in the bottom of the 8th they bring in defensive replacements and closer Andrew Bailey and his 1.84 ERA to try to hang onto it. However, three hits in the 8th, two courtesy of the A’s DP combo, tie things up entering the 9th. Cordero holds off the A’s in the top of the 9th, while in the bottom Hank Blalock singles and a Richard Hidalgo double pushes the winning run to third with one away. In comes the infield for the top of the order in Young, and it's a gbB so Black is out at the plate while Young reaches first. That brings up Soriano, and the roll is a 4-5: HR 1, flyB 2-20. The split die goes into the dice tower, and out comes the 1, game over with the walkoff three run blast and the Rangers ride the unusually cooperative split die into the semis with the 5-2 win.
The 2017 Indians won 102 games and the AL Central, and their season-ending ELO rating was among the best in history although they exited the post-season in the ALDS. Still, it was easy to see how they earned their position as regional favorites, as Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor both finished in the top 5 of the MVP voting, while Cory Kluber (18-4, 2.25) was 7th while running away with the AL Cy Young award. However, they faced a pretty tough draw in the 2011 Brewers, whose 96 wins took the NL Central and they made it farther than the Indians in the post-season, getting eliminated in a 6-game NLCS. Ryan Braun won the NL MVP award and Prince Fielder finished 3rd, while Shaun Marcum (13-7, 3.54) was one of several decent options for the round one assignment. Kluber is uncharacteristically wild in the 2nd, walking the first two Brewers and then yielding an RBI single to Jonathan Lucroy that puts Milwaukee up 1-0, but Kluber bears down and prevents the numbers from getting crooked. Cleveland ties it in the bottom of the 3rd when Jose Ramirez slaps a 2-out double and then scores on a single by Edwin Encarnacion. Both pitchers have things locked down until there are 2 out in the top of the 8th, when Kluber allows a single, a Braun double, and a walk to Fielder that loads the bases. The Indians think about the pen but decide to stick with their ace; however, although Corey Hart may be wearing his sunglasses at night, he still manages to spot Kluber’s 6-5 HR 1-12/ DO. Unfortunately, the low visibility produces a missed split for the slam, and Fielder’s 1-10+2 lumber towards home is rudely interrupted for the final out of the inning, but the Brewers still lead 3-1. When Kluber yield a single in the 9th, the Indians aren’t going to make the same mistake and summon the unhittable Andrew Miller from the bullpen, and Yunieski Betancourt and Casey McGehee both promptly single to prove that description markedly incorrect. Nyjer Morgan then pokes an RBI single before Miller whiffs Braun with the bases loaded, and the Indians face a 4-1 deficit in the bottom of the 9th. It quickly narrows as defensive replacement Erik Gonzalez leads off the inning with a homer, PH Austin Jackson walks, and Milwaukee heads to their pen for Cy Young vote-getting closer John Axford. A Yan Gomes single puts the tying run aboard with nobody out and the top the the Cleveland order at bat, but Axford finds his stuff and ends the game striking out Ramirez and Encarnacion as the Brewers eliminate the bracket favorite with the 4-2 win. Special recognition has to go to Milwaukee’s all-4 DP combo who flawlessly fielded four X-chances in clutch situations to keep the Indians at bay.
The matchup between the pennant-winning 2005 Astros and the on-the-doorstep 2003 Red Sox looked to me like the marquee game of round one. The Astros won 89 games but got to the Series as a wild card; the Killer B’s of Bagwell, Biggio and Berkman were showing signs of age, but Morgan Ensberg wasn’t as he finished 4th in the MVP votes and Roger Clemens (13-8, 1.87) was 3rd for the Cy Young at the top of a strong rotation. Even so, they were slight underdogs to the Red Sox, who won 95 games but lost a 7-game ALCS to the Yankees; this team had two-thirds of the lineup with a SLG% over .500 with David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and Nomar Garciaparra going 5-6-7 in the MVP ballots and Pedro Martinez (14-4, 2.22) 3rd for the Cy Young while leading the AL in ERA. Both pitchers start out dominant, and there isn’t a hit in the game until 2 out in the bottom of the 4th, when Trot Nixon’s the one to blast a two-run homer to the delight of the Fenway faithful. Clemens then appears rattled by the catcalls of the fans, as he walks the first two batters of the 5th and they both score on a Todd Walker single and a Johnny Damon sac fly, so Clemens trails 4-0 despite allowing only two hits. Adan Everett begins the 6th inning with the first hit off Pedro, a missed HR split, but he is stranded at second; however, Houston gets on the launching pad courtesy of consecutive errors by SS-2 Nomar and 3B-2 Bill Mueller; a double by Chris Burke scores another and puts the tying run at 2nd, and Pedro suddenly is looking vulnerable but he comes up with a big strikeout and the score remains at 4-2 Boston. However, Kevin Millar blasts a solo shot over the Green Monster in the bottom of the 7th and that’s it for Clemens, who only allowed three hits, and Brad Lidge strikes out two in a row to prevent further damage. It matters not, because Pedro is in control, finishing out a 3-hitter in which he fans 12 to eliminate yet another pennant winner in round one with the 5-2 victory.
The 1999 Diamondbacks won 100 games and the NL West, but made a quick postseason exit in the NLDS; even so, they boasted a lineup loaded with weapons like Matt Williams, 3rd in the MVP votes, with Luis Gonzalez and Jay Bell also receiving some support, as did Randy Johnson (17-9, 2.48) who did win the NL Cy Young award. All that made them big favorites over the 1992 Dodgers who lost 99 games, the most for the franchise since 1909; they did have an okay ]] pitching staff fronted by Tom Candiotti (11-15, 3.00), but they had no offensive punch and dreadful defense with an all-4 infield. Candiotti has some trouble with the knuckler in the bottom of the 1st and loads the bases only to walk Williams to put the Dbacks up, but he strikes out the nameless Damian Miller to prevent further damage. The Dodgers efforts at smallball aren’t working well, with two caught stealings and a botched sacrifice, but in the 5th Dave Hansen bops a single and Jose Offerman races home from second to tie the game. In the bottom of the inning, three straight walks give the Dbacks bases loaded with one away, but Candiotti finds the strike zone to fan Williams; however, Miller makes a name for himself with a 2-run single and Arizona regains the lead. When Bell rings Candiotti’s HR split to lead off the bottom of the 7th, the Dodgers bring in Jay Howell, but from there Johnson isn’t allowing anything and he finished a 3-hitter with 11 strikeouts as the Diamondbacks move on to the semifinals with a 4-1 win.
The survivors
The 2011 Brewers knocked the regional favorite out of the tournament in round one, so now they and Yovani Gallardo (17-10, 3.52) would have a supposedly easier opponent in the #6 seeded 2005 Rangers who would start Chris Young (12-7, 4.28). The Brewers take an early lead in the bottom of the 2nd when Jerry Hairston Jr converts Young’s HR result for a solo shot, but Alfonso Soriano quickly erases that lead with a long solo blast of his own in the top of the 3rd. The Brewers get runners on the corners with nobody out and the Rangers burnt their closer in the prior game, so Young stays in to face MVP Ryan Braun–who hit the LOMAX and the triple play ends the threat. Both pitchers settle in for the long haul at that point, and the game enters the 9th still tied at one apiece. Gallaro does his job in the top of the 9th, giving the Brewers a shot at a walk-off win, and when Casey McGehee leads off the bottom of the frame with a double the Ranger summon Joaquin Benoit from the pen to try to stay in the game. The Brewers counter by inserting fleet Carlos Gomez to pinch run, making most any hit into the winning run. Benoit whiffs Nyjer Morgan to bring up Braun, and the Milwaukee crowd waits anxiously for the LOMAX—but no, it’s a 6-9 roll, SINGLE on Benoit and the 1-17 Gomez sets sail for home and scores easily and the Brewers walk off to the finals with a 2-1 win.
This semifinal matched the #2 seeded 1999 Diamondbacks against the #3 seed 2003 Red Sox, and the winner will be favored to take the regional.witth the top seed already gone. Both clubs had to move out from top tier #1 starters, but both had capable second fiddles with the Dback’s Omar Daal (16-9, 3.65) and Boston’s Byung-Hyun Kim (9-10, 3.31) being worthy successors. Arizona puts together a two-out rally in the bottom of the 2nd, culminating in a 2-run single by Luis Gonzalez, and #9 hitter Travis Lee finds and converts Kim’s HR result for a solo shot in the 2nd to make it 3-0 Dbacks. The Red Sox respond in the 4th when LF-3 Luis Gonzalez misplays a David Ortiz single, and then Ortiz scores on a sharp single from Manny Ramirez; in the 8th, the Sox take advantage of a 2-out error by AZ defensive replacement SS-3 Tony Batista that follows a Johnny Damon RBI double, and Daal is yanked for closer Matt Mantei with the tying run 90 feet away. Mantei comes through in a big way, whiffing David Ortiz for the 3rd out. So it’s up to Mantei to get the final three outs in the top of the 9th, and he knocks out three straight with two of them strikeouts for a well-deserved save in the 3-2 victory that sends the Dbacks to the finals in search of their first ever regional win–the last remaining franchise to be without at least one regional crown.
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