REGIONAL #228:  For the first time in a couple of regionals the draw included some 20th century teams, both of whom turned out to be Orioles.  There was also the second of the recent 2023 season squads to be drawn, this one the Padres who should be appreciably better than the Nationals that did surprisingly well in the previous bracket.  The closest thing to a pennant winner here were the Rays, three years after a pennant, and the ‘87 version of the Orioles who had won the AL four years previously; those teams might have been decent, but I was pretty uncertain about the rest of the entries.  I guessed that those ‘87 Orioles still had enough pitching left to make it to the finals, where I banked on a good performance by last season’s Padres to get them past two Baltimore teams on the way to the regional win.  The ELO rankings thought my pick of the Padres wasn’t bad, but had them going down to an apparently quite good Rays team in the finals.

First round action

The 2011 Rays were the bracket favorite, as the team won 91 games and made a brief postseason appearance as a wild card; they were led by MVP vote getters Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist, with James Shields (16-12, 2.82) finishing 3rd for the Cy Young.  The 2001 Expos were the bottom seed with 94 losses and were busy looking for real estate in Washington DC, with Vlad Guerrero getting MVP votes as the lone offensive threat and a decent Javier Vazquez (16-11, 3.42) the sole bright spot in the rotation.  In the bottom of the 1st, Expos DH Mark Smith hits a 2-run homer en route to a three run inning that would have been worse if Vlad hadn’t hit into a double play.  They extend their lead to 4-0 in the 3rd when Orlando Cabrera triples and then scores on a single by Jose Vidro, and when the Expos lead off the 6th with two walks the Rays can smell the storage drawers awaiting them, so they call upon closer Kyle Farnsworth and on his first pitch Expos C Michael Barrett is injured for the rest of the tournament and the next two hitters go down meekly.  Meanwhile Vazguez is dominating, but Casey Kotchman leads off the top of the 9th for the Rays by missing Vazguez’s HR split and doubling; two batters later Sean Rodriguez doesn’t miss his own HR split and puts it in the stands to make it a 2-run game.  When PH Justin Ruggiano pokes a single past 1B-3 Lee Stevens to bring up the top of the order with the tying run at the plate, Montreal has to accept that Vazquez has nothing left and Scott Strickland is brought in.  A 6-5 roll follows, homer on Vazquez, but a whiff on Strickland and that’s two away.  Desmond Jennings singles to put the go-ahead run in the batters box in the form of Longoria, but he grounds out harmlessly and the Expos pull off the 1 vs 8 seed upset with the 4-2 win and move on.  

The 2006 Rangers were the third seed in this bracket, and despite an 80-82 record they had a formidable lineup in which everyone had a SLG% greater than .400, with Mark Teixeira and Carlos Lee hitting over 30 homers yet it was Gary Matthews Jr. and Michael Young that received MVP votes.  However, their rotation was a sore spot, with Vincente Padilla (15-10, 4.50) hoping for a lot of run support.  I had thought that the 1987 Orioles might be better than they turned out to be, as they lost 95 games despite having some big names like Cal Ripken, Eddie Murray, and Fred Lynn, plus Mike Boddicker (10-12, 4.18) on the hill.  The Rangers quickly flex their muscle, as in the top of the 1st Lee misses Boddicker’s HR split for a double, but then Teixeira leaves no doubt with a solid blast on his own card for a 2-0 lead.  The O’s look like they’re ready to respond in the bottom of the inning, but 1-12+2 Jim Dwyer is nailed at the plate on a Murray double to kill the rally and end the inning.  Baltimore does make it a one run game on a solo shot from Larry Sheets in the 4th, and meanwhile Boddicker is at his craftiest and shuts down the Rangers.  When Ken Gerhart knocks a one-out single in the 9th, the nervous Rangers bring in closer Akinori Otsuka to preserve the lead, and he retires Sheets and Murray to send the game to the 9th with Texas clinging to the one-run advantage.  In the top of the inning, Lee crushes a Boddicker mistake for a solo shot to provide a little padding for Otsuka, who watches the pad evaporate when Ripken leads off the bottom of the 9th with a homer.  Lynn then singles to put the tying run aboard, followed by an error from SS-3 Michael Young and now the winning run is at 1st with still nobody out.  Ray Knight then rips an RBI single off Otsuki’s card, and the game is tied with the winning run at third–still nobody out.  The infield comes in for Gerhart; SI 1-10, he misses the split for a lineout, one away.  Infield still in for Billy Ripken, it’s a roll on his card for gbA, followed by those little ++s and the ball goes through the infield for the game-winning RBI as the Orioles pull off the come-from-behind, walk-off 4-3 win and Boddicker gets the win with a 6-hitter.  

The second of the most current season teams to participate in the tournament, the 2023 Padres were also the second seed in this regional, as although their record was a mediocre 82-80 that was 10 games under their Pythagorean projection.  They boasted a defense with four 1s and two 2s, a lineup with MVP vote-getters Juan Soto, Ha-Seong Kim and Fernando Tatis Jr., and the NL Cy Young in Blake Snell (14-9, 2.25).  They were matched against the #4 seed in the 1992 Orioles, who had a much better record at 89-73 but that was three wins over their projection; on paper they weren’t quite the match for the Padres in any category, although Brady Anderson got some MVP votes and Mike Mussina (18-5, 2.54) finished 4th in for the Cy Young, setting up a quality pitching matchup.  Soto finds the stands in the bottom of the 1st for a 1-0 Padres lead, which holds up until the top of the 6th when Mike Devereaux singles with two out and pinch runner Mark McLemore (1-16+2) slides under the tag with a 17 split to tie the game.   Briefly, it turns out, as in the bottom of the inning Kim leads off with a walk, steals second, and scores on a Xander Bogaerts base hit.  In the 8th Kim walks again and steals his third base of the game, and scores on a Soto single to provide Snell with an insurance run; Snell gets two quick outs but then walks two to put the go ahead run at the plate, but 2B-1 Kim makes a highlight reel defensive play (a 1 split) for the third out and the Padres move on with the 3-1 win with Snell fanning 10 in a 5-hitter.

For the Zoom game of the week, it would be Eaglesfly directing his hometown 2002 Blue Jays, while ColavitoFan gamely agreed to manage the 2022 Cubs so that I wouldn’t have to watch them do well just to spite me.  The Jays were ELO favorites despite an unimpressive 78-84 record, as the lineup had some pop led by Carlos Delgado, while Roy Halladay (19-7, 2.93) was entering his prime.  On the other hand, the main reaction from the group to the lineup for the 74-88 Cubs was “who are these guys?”, although they had decent defense and a pretty good rotation fronted by former Blue Jay Marcus Strohman (6-7, 3.50).  Both pitchers handle the first pass through the lineups, with Halladay dominating and Strohman repeatedly getting pegged for doubles off his card, but then stranding the runner.  However, in the bottom of the 4th Halladay issues a couple of walks, and then CF-2 Vernon Wells misplays a Christopher Morel single to allow a run to score, and Patrick Wisdom manages to find a flyball B in a column of strikeouts for a sac fly and a two-run Cubs lead.  The Jays continue to mount threats against Strohman but time after time he escapes unscathed, until the game reaches the top of the 9th and after yielding a single ColavitoFan gets nervous about Strohman’s HR result that the Jays had been dancing around all game.  So, with one out and the tying run at the plate one Scott Effross is summoned from the pen, and he immediate induces the double play ball to wrap up the 2-0 shutout as Cubs win, Cubs win, despite a four-hitter from Halladay who is reportedly unhappy about the level of run support he’s been getting from Eaglesfly in this tournament.

The survivors

This semifinal featured two upset winners from round one, with both the 2001 Expos and the 1987 Orioles defeating teams that were far more highly rated.   Now the teams had to come up with something past their #1 starter; for the Orioles that was a pretty good swingman in Dave Schmidt (10-5, 3.77) while the Expos would try Tony Armas Jr. (9-14, 4.03) in the hopes that his dad might bolster their outfield.  The Orioles strike first in the bottom of the 2nd when Terry Kennedy launches a solo shot, and they add a couple more runs in the 3rd on RBI singles from Larry Sheets and Eddie Murray.  The Expos get on the board in the 4th when O’s C-4 Kennedy is charged with a passed ball with a runner on third, but from there both pitchers are in control.  But Expos PH Tim Raines leads off the top of the 9th with a single, and with one out RF-3 Jim Dwyer makes a two-base error to put the tying run in scoring position.  The O’s stick with Schmidt, and he strikes out PH Curtis Pride for the second out to bring up Orlando Cabrera, who already has two hits for the game.  The O’s leaf through their pen but their best reliever is probably already on the mound, so Schmidt delivers to Cabrera, who rips a 2-run single off the pitcher’s card to tie the game.  Schmidt finally gets the third out, Armas sets Baltimore down in order, and we head to extra innings.  Both pitchers get through their last inning of eligibility in the 10th, and so the game now becomes a test of bad bullpens.  For the O’s, it’s another swingman in Mark Williamson, and he gets into trouble quickly with a Geoff Blum single followed by consecutive errors on C-4 Kennedy and 1B-2 Murray that load the bases with one out.  Williamson gets Cabrera to fly out and the runner on third holds, but then Jose Vidro grounds one back to Williamson who drops it for the 3rd Oriole error of the inning and the Expos take a one-run edge into the bottom of the 11th.  In comes reliever Scott Strickland vying for his second straight save of the regional against the heart of the Baltimore order; down goes Sheets and Murray, but with two out Cal Ripken singles to bring up Fred Lynn.  Lynn rolls his 1-7:  HR 1-11/DO, and he misses the split but Ripken (1-14+2) is charging for home with the tying run, and he’s safe. Strickland retires Kennedy, and the game heads to the 12th inning.  Williamson holds serve in the top of the 12th; Strickland whiffs Ray Knight to begin the bottom of the inning to face defensive replacement Ken Gerhart.  And the roll is a 1-9, HR 1-19 and Gerhart doesn’t miss this split for a walk off homer as the Orioles post a wild 5-4 win and head to the finals despite committing 5 errors.

The #2 seeded 2023 Padres were the top remaining team in the semifinal round, and after sending out a Cy Young winner in round one they were able to follow up with a solid Michael Wacha (14-4, 3.22).  The 2022 Cubs may have been the #6 seed but their rotation was better than their record would suggest and Justin Steele (4-7, 3.18) was a decent option as well.  The Padres power to a quick 2-0 lead on a 2-run homer from Gary Sanchez in the top of the 1st, and they eke out another run on a Ha-Seong Kim fielder’s choice in the 5th.  When Kim walks and steals second in the 8th, the Cubs move to Scott Effross out of the pen and he prevents any damage, and when Wacha walks two to begin the bottom of the inning it’s the Padres turn to test their pen in the form of closer Josh Hader and his 1.28 ERA.  He induces a quick DP and a whiff to end that threat as well, and both relievers blow through the 9th meaning that the Padres staff records a three-hit shutout in the 3-0 win to send them to the finals

I accurately predicted this regional final matchup between the 2023 Padres and the 1987 Orioles, which is a whole lot better than I’ve been doing at predicting the NCAA bracket this or any other year.   My picks for this regional were driven by ignorance, as I was not anticipating the O’s being a bad team who managed two walk-off wins to get here, nor did I necessarily think that the Padres would only average three runs a game but get to the finals by only allowing one run in the first two rounds combined.  Next up for the Padres rotation was a decent Seth Lugo (8-7, 3.57) while Baltimore’s John Habyan (6-7, 4.80) was not great but looked like Walter Johnson compared to their other remaining alternatives.  But the Orioles jump to a lead in top of the 3rd as Larry Sheets smacks a three-run homer and Fred Lynn adds an RBI double before the inning ends for a 4-0 lead  However, we play that again Sam as Xander Bogaerts raps a three-run shot in the bottom of the inning and Luis Campusano adds a sac fly and the game is tied heading into the 4th.  In the 5th the Padres take the lead on a squib RBI single by Manny Machado, and another run scores on an error by O’s C-4 Terry Kennedy that makes it 6-4.  Fred Lynn answers by leading off the 6th with a homer that makes it a one run game, and when Ray Knight singles the nervous Padres summon closer Josh Hader early to try to fend off the pesky birds and he strikes out the opposition.  However, in the top of the 7th an error by 3B-1 Machado sets up a Cal Ripken sac fly that ties the game, and the O’s bring in Mark Williamson for good luck to begin the 8th as he’d earned the relief win in the semifinal.  He proves to be lucky as Trent Grisham misses Williamson’s HR 1-10 split and gets stranded at second, and he also holds serve in the 9th to send the game to extra innings–but without Williamson, who has now burnt his eligibility for the regional.  Padres reliever Tom Cosgrove sets the O’s down in order in the top of the 10th, while Baltimore’s Jack O’Connor comes out of the pen and handles SD in the bottom of the inning.  In the top of the 11th Eddie Murray contributes a clutch two-out RBI single that puts the Orioles ahead, so it’s up to O’Connor in the bottom of the frame against the meat of the Padres order.  He starts out badly, waling Juan Soto and Gary Sanchez, and then Machado pokes a single and 1-13 Soto beats the throw home to tie the game, with the regional winning run now in scoring position with one out.  But O’Conner bears down and retires the side and the game heads to the 12th.  New Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove has to watch as a double bounces past LF-3 Soto and then 3B-1 Machado makes his second error of the game, setting up a 2-out Billy Ripken RBI single and the persistent Orioles lead once again.  And once again it’s up to O’Connor to try to close out the win, and once again he walks two but then gets two out and faces Gary Sanchez; he rolls a SI 1-4, the split is a 4 and the bases are loaded for Luis Campusano with two away.  The roll….5-4, HR 1-15, the split is a 6 and it’s game, set, and regional for the Padres on a walk off grand slam, and the dogs at Petco Park are howling about the 11-8 win and the bracket title.

Interesting card of Regional #228:  This card reflects the penultimate season for Tim Raines, who I think tended to be overshadowed during his career by Rickey Henderson so I was pleased to see Raines elected to the Hall of Fame in 2017.  This was an interesting season for Raines as he had not played at all the prior year after having been diagnosed with lupus during the 2019 season, and most felt that the 41 year old Raines was retired.  Although his efforts to sign with a team during 2000 were unsuccessful, he at least was inducted into the Expos Hall of Fame toward the end of the year, and during the ceremony he told the team owner he wanted a chance to play for the Expos once again.  Invited to spring training out of courtesy, he hit over .400 for the spring and made the team, and despite his declining speed and fielding skills, his card reveals that he was still an expert at getting on base.  With the Expos going nowhere, they sold him to the Orioles at the beginning of October which allowed him to join his son, becoming only the second father/son combination in MLB history to play together on the same team, playing four games together before the elder Raines was released at the end of the season.