Friday, December 8, 2023

REGIONAL #214:  Right off the bat, my team selector program picked a pennant winner, the last Rangers squad to make the Series prior to their triumph this year.   But they were not the only pennant winner here, as the 2008 Rays were represented as Tampa Bay’s first AL championship, and there was also a Ted Williams-era Boston team immediately following their lone pennant of that era.  Other contestants of note included an Astros team that I thought might be a classic Astrodome-based group with pitching, speed, and defense, a Cardinals team that I thought might be competitive, a Mike Trout-led Angels squad, and a couple of Brewers teams from the 90s that played in two different leagues.  I had to go with the Rangers as favorites here, and I guessed that they would take an all-Lone Star finals besting the Astros, who would only get that far because of dominant starting pitching.   The ELO rankings also went with the Rangers, predicting that they would take a tough matchup with the #2 seeded Rays in the semifinals and best the #3 seed Red Sox in the finals.

First round action

The 2011 Rangers won 96 games and the AL and they came within one out of winning the Series; the ELO ranks had them as one of the best 150 teams of all time with Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre and Josh Hamilton all getting MVP votes and CJ Wilson (16-7, 2.94) finishing 6th in the Cy Young balloting.  They faced a decent 1991 Brewers who won 83 games with some elder statesmen such as Yount, Molitor, Gantner and Willie Randolph, although their main strength lay in a good starting rotation with Bill Wegman (15-7, 2.84) at the top.  What develops is a pitching duel, with Wegmen deftly getting out of jam after jam, such as stranding Beltre at 2nd in the 8th after missing a HR 1-13 split.  Meanwhile, Wilson is dominating and the game is a scoreless tie after nine innings, so things head to extra frames with both starters facing their final three outs of eligibility.  Wegman does his job, setting the top of the Texas lineup down in order in the top of the 10th, and Wilson also goes 1-2-3 and it’s time to test the bullpens in the 11th.  Milwaukee trots out Doug Henry with his 1.00 ERA and nary a hit on his card, and he holds the Rangers at bay in the top of the inning; the Rangers respond with Mike Adams sporting a 1.47 ERA for the bottom of the 11th.  Henry gets an out, but then Bill Spiers singles to bring up 36-year old Willie Randolph; the roll is on Adams card, DO 1-5/flyB and the split is a 5, 1-15 Spiers heads for home and he’s safe, and the Brewers quickly eliminate the bracket favorite winning a 1-0 nailbiter and move on.  

When the team selector program pulled up the 2008 Rays, I had vague memories of them being decent around that time but I was a bit surprised to be reminded that they won 97 games and the AL that season.  Carlos Pena was 9th in MVP votes and Evan Longoria and Jason Bartlett got some votes as well, but their rotation was quite pedestrian with Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49) better than the others by a fair amount–although a strong bullpen could help if the Rays need to go deeper in their rotation.   The 2018 Cardinals won 88 games in a different fashion, with a strong rotation fronted by Miles Mikolas (18-4, 2.83) finishing 6th for the Cy Young, but a lineup whose weapons dropped off quickly after Matt Carpenter, who like Pena also was 9th place for  MVP.  In the bottom of the 1st, the Cards come out swinging with a leadoff single from Kolton Wong followed by a double on a missed HR split by Jose Martinez, the 1-14 Wong successfully racing home for the game’s first run.  That brings up Carpenter, who also misses a HR split but doubles in Martinez and the Cards quickly lead 2-0.  In the 2nd, a sac fly from Dexter Fowler and an RBI single by Wong pushes the lead to 4-0, and the Rays begin activity in the bullpen much earlier than they had hoped.  The Rays get three hits in the 6th, including the first one that wasn’t off the pitcher’s card, but don’t score courtesy of a Pena GIDP.  With their hopes dimming, the Rays bring in JP Howell from the pen for the 6th and he records two quick outs but then Jedd Gyorko gyorks a double, and PH Tyler O’Neill comes in for Fowler and launches a 2-run shot that seems to spell the end of the Rays run.   Mikolas is businesslike from there, closing out a 6-hit shutout and the second of the two pennant winners in this bracket becomes the second to be eliminated in round one as the Cards head to the semis with a 6-0 win.

This game was the Irrelevant Series as the #7 seeded 1999 Brewers faced the #8 seed 2019 Angels in a game somebody had to win.  The Brewers lost 87 games and although they had some boppers like Jeromy Burnitz and Geoff Jenkins in the lineup, their rotation was both shallow and bad, with Hideo Nomo (12-8, 4.54) a sad choice for a first round pitcher.  However, they were still better off than the 90-loss Angels in that department, who had exactly one eligible starter, Trevor Cahill (4-9, 5.98), to go along with MVP Mike Trout and DH Shohei Ohtani, who made no pitching appearances for the Angels that season although he was desperately needed.  The Angels strike in the bottom of the 2nd with an RBI double from Albert Pujols off a missed HR split, and Pujols scores on a single from Luis Rengifo for a 2-0 lead.  A three run homer by Kole Calhoun breaks things open for LA in the 3rd, and a rattled Nomo walks two batters after that to set up a 2-run single from Rengifo and the Brewers don’t see much promise in their bullpen either.  With a seven run lead, the Angels are hoping that Cahill can preserve their pen, but RBI hits in the 4th from Mark Loretta and Sean Berry narrow the gap to 7-2 and doesn’t instill much confidence in their starter.  However, in the bottom of the inning Ohtani finds Nomo’s solid HR result for a solo shot and the Brewers in desperation try their closer, Bob Wickman, who does retire the side without further damage.  The Angels then get to Wickman in the 5th with two out, back to back doubles from the red hot Rengifo and Anderlton Simmons produce another run.   Loretta tries to get the Brewers back into the game with a 2-run single in the 8th, and his hit is followed by a 2-run homer from PH Kevin Barker off Cahill’s solid HR result; then Alex Ochoa goes back-to-back with a homer off Cahill’s split HR result and the Angels are finally forced to head to the bullpen for Ty Buttrey to hold a lead that has now dwindled down to two.  However, an error by C-4 Jonathan Lucroy puts Jeff Cirillo on, and then Jenkins finds a solid HR result on his own card and the game is tied.  The game moves to the bottom of the 8th, but Wickman is now burnt for the regional and it’s up to Al Reyes to keep the Brewers in the game.  He retires the Angels quietly in the 8th, and when Buttrey issues a leadoff walk in the top of the 9th the Angels move to their closer, Hansel Robles, who escapes the inning to give LA their shot in the bottom of the 9th.   Reyes has to face the heart of the Angels order, and Ohtani leads off with a hit but Trout’s DP kills the rally and the game moves to extra innings.  Robles handles the Brewers in the top of the 10th; in the bottom Reyes gets two quick outs but Lucroy converts a DO 1-10/flyB with a 10 split and the winning run is in scoring position in the form of a pinch runner.  That brings up household name Rengifo, who promptly knocks his 4th hit of the game into the gap and the Angels blow a 7-run lead but manage to come back to win 10-9 and head to the semifinals.   

After the prior first round games, this matchup between the 1947 Red Sox and the 1984 Astros paired the two highest remaining seeds.  The Red Sox went 83-71, good for 3rd in the AL, with Ted Williams the MVP runner-up (despite having a much better season than Dimaggio) and Johnny Pesky and Bobby Doerr also received some votes as did Joe Dobson (18-8, 2.95), who preceded the existence of the Cy Young award.  The Astros were under .500 at 80-82, but their Pythagorean projection indicated that they should have won 88, and their chances were helped with their lone HOFer, Nolan Ryan (12-11, 3.04), on the mound.  The slap hitters on the Astros begin slapping away in the top of the 1st, recording 5 singles that turn into 4 runs and the Fenway fans are wondering if they should turn around and go home.  A sac fly by Enos Cabell in the 4th  provides his second RBI of the game, but in the bottom of the inning the Red Sox rally and a squib RBI single by Birdie Tebbetts is followed by a spate of wildness from Ryan; the 38-year old Ryan walks Dom Dimaggio with the bases loaded to drive in another to bring up the Splendid Splinter with the bags packed, but Ryan whiffs him to prevent further damage.   In the 5th, .203 hitter Eddie Pelligrini uncorks a 3-run homer that ties the game and the Fens are rocking, but Bill Doran quiets them in the top of the 6th with a triple and he scores on a bloop single from Terry Puhl and Houston regains the lead.  However, the von Ryan Express is having trouble staying on the tracks and when he walks the bases full again in the bottom of the inning, the Astros move to the slightly less wild Julio Solano to get the third out.  In the 8th, a leadoff single and a walk and Dobson is pulled for Boston’s lone decent reliever, Johnny Murphy, and he is sharp retiring three in a row to quell the threat.  Solano runs into some trouble in the bottom of the 8th, so Houston summons Dave Smith to try to get the final out and he fans Doerr in a pressure situation.  Smith then faces the weak bottom of the Red Sox order for the 9th, and he blows through them, whiffing Jake Jones for the final out to earn the save in the 6-5 Astros win, completing a first round in which every favorite lost.  

The survivors

The first semifinal featured a matchup between two teams that had each eliminated a pennant-winner with shutout wins in round one, with the 2018 Cardinals and the 1991 Brewers both being decent teams such that those wins were no fluke.  Both had solid options for their #2 starter, with the Cards’ Jack Flaherty (8-9, 3.34) and Milwaukee’s Chris Bosio (14-10, 3.25) facing off, but Flaherty’s job isn’t made any easier when his SS Paul DeJong leaves the game with an injury in the 2nd inning and is replaced by a SS-4.  Things don’t get any better for him as Jim Gantner finds Flaherty’s solid HR result for a solo shot in the top of the 3rd, but Matt Carpenter crushes a 3-run homer with two out in the bottom of the inning to put St. Louis ahead.  The Brewers get a single and a walk in the 6th and the Cards lose confidence in Flaherty, moving to Michael Wacha who douses the flames successfully.  In the 7th, an error by 3B-3 Gantner sets up a sac fly from PH Tyler O’Neill and the Cards extend their lead, and with a solid edge they summon gopher ball prone closer Bud Norris to pitch the 9th.  On his first pitch Greg Vaughn rolls a HR 1-15/TR but misses the split, scoring nonetheless on a Dante Bichette grounder, but Norris manages to retire two more without incident and the Cardinals head to the finals with the 4-2 win in which they only manage five hits against Bosio.  

The 1984 Astros were the top remaining seed after all of the round one upsets, and they faced the #8 seeded 2019 Angels who were bad despite MVP Mike Trout and promising DH Shohei Ohtani.  The Angels weren’t helped by a lack of eligible pitchers, meaning that the top remaining IP, swingman Felix Pena (8-3, 4.58), was mandated to pitch, although he was pretty good other than some longball concerns.  The Astros would counter with 39-year old Joe Niekro (16-12, 3.04), and he would get staked to a lead when Denny Walling finds Pena’s solid HR result to lead off the bottom of the 2nd.  The Angels blow a chance in the 5th when Astros 3B-3 Phil Garner drops an Ohtani grounder and Trout follows with a double, but the 1-15 Ohtani is cut down at the plate and Houston retains the lead.  The Angels try PH Tommy La Stella in the 7th but he’s promptly out and injured, and when Craig Reynolds leads off the bottom of the inning missing Pena’s HR split for a double, LA brings in Ty Buttrey, who strands Reynolds at second in a much better showing than his round one outing.  When Trout leads off the 8th with a single, it’s the Astros turn to visit the pen for Julio Solano; after an out, Brian Goodwin doubles but 1-16 Trout is caught at the plate, and Solano blows it by Albert Pujols to preserve the lead.  With the Angels down to their last chance, Jonathan Lucroy singles to begin the top of the 9th and .124 hitter Zack Cozart beats out a bunt and the go-ahead run is on with nobody out.  The next batter, #9 hitter Andrelton Simmons, doubles to tie the game and Cozart is 90 feet away from the lead.  The infield comes in for David Fletcher, and he rips a 2-run double and the Angels capture their first lead and Dave Smith comes in for the hapless Solano.  He quickly retires the side, and the game heads to the bottom of the 9th with Cam Bedrosian in to replace Buttrey, now burned for the tournament.  He proves indeed to be bedrock as Houston goes down in order and the unlikely Angels ride the 3-1 comeback win into the finals.     

The regional final features the #4 seeded 2018 Cardinals against the #8 seed 2019 Angels, matching the two most recent teams in the bracket if not the two best.  The Cards would send out Carlos Martinez (8-6, 3.11) against the Angels’ Andrew Heaney (4-6, 4.91), who had a mean strikeout pitch but a bad tendency to let up the longball, and both bullpens had been taxed to get these teams this far.  Sure enough, in the top of the 1st Matt Carpenter finds one of Heaney’s HR results for a solo shot, and in the 2nd the Angels lose their second 2B, Luis Rengifo, to injury, meaning that it’s .124 hitter Zack Cozart in that position for the foreseeable future.  In the 3rd, Yadier Molina crushes a 2-run homer (off his own card), and then Marcella Ozuna goes back to back off Heaney’s other HR result and things are getting ugly.  However, the Angels have reached these finals because of late-inning heroics and are not worried, and Kole Calhoun and Brian Goodwin lead off the 4th with back to back doubles, with a single from Albert Pujols scoring Goodwin to narrow the Cards lead to 4-2.  In the 5th, Martinez feels a twinge in his arm and he’s out of the game and will miss at least one start, so Dakota Hudson is charged with maintaining the lead.  He is effective, but the injury bug hits St. Louis again in the 8th as Yadier Molina is lost for 5 games; the depleted Cards summon Jordan Hicks to pitch the 8th inning and although he allows a walk and single in the inning, a Pujols GIDP ends the threat with no damage.  Heaney shuts down the Cards in the top of the 9th, and so it’s down to the last chance for the Angels, a situation that they converted into wins in both prior rounds of the tournament.   Hicks issues two walks off his card to bring up Ohtani as the winning run with two outs, and Ohtani rips one deep but CF-1 Harrison Baden hauls it in to clinch the 4-2 win and the 13th regional title for the Cards, who join the 2018 team to form a mini-dynasty of squads that come through in this format. 

Interesting card of Regional #214: 
I kind of hate to feature recent cards in this feature, but with a 2018 and a 2019 team being the ones to reach the regional final, I figured I had to pick somebody from one of them–so the 2019 AL MVP was the natural choice.  The 2019 Angels lost 90 games even with this card anchoring the lineup, and I thought it was remarkable that they even reached the regional finals because Trout was a non-factor–no homers, no runs driven in during any of the three games.  For those looking for trivia questions, Andre Dawson was the first player to win an MVP while playing for a last-place team, but even though the Angels didn’t finish last, the 1987 Cubs were actually a better team as they only lost 85 games.  How did the Angels manage to be so bad?  Well, one thing that was interesting about the team was that none of their primary starting pitchers reached the 100 IP threshold required to be an option in this tournament, meaning that their rotation had to progress in a strict order of innings pitched.  Even so, the three starters tapped in this way weren’t terrible, and statistically the Angels ended up pretty close to the league average in many hitting and pitching categories.  Despite having the worst ELO rating in the regional, they reached the final and were competitive there; after playing with a bunch of different teams in this tournament so far (over 1,700, if you’re counting) I have to say that this is perhaps the best 90-loss team I remember encountering, and if Trout could have just rolled the two column a few times, they might still be going in the tournament.

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