REGIONAL #203: As I go deeper in the tournament, the composition of the brackets gets increasingly slanted towards more modern teams, because (a) with expansion, there are far more of them, and (b) given that I began the project more than 40 years ago, pretty much all teams issued before then have already made their appearance. This group is a typical example, with the oldest teams dating back to the 90s, and I tend to have less vivid memories of most of them. The ones that stood out most to me were a 90s Yankees team that would have a record-setting season a year later and a “moneyball” A’s team that I suspected was beginning to run out of money. I thought some other entries such as the Cards and the Jays might be competitive, but I guessed that the Yankees would be the favorites even though these Jeter-era squads have generally done poorly, including the ‘98 team that didn’t get past the semifinals. I didn’t know what to make of the bottom of the bracket, guessing that the Nats had pitching and the Rockies had hitting but that neither was a complete team, so I picked the Jays to be the victims of the Yankees in the final. The ELO ratings aligned perfectly with my ill-formed impressions of the group, with the same choices for the final and tapping the potential Yanks vs. A’s semifinal as the marquee game of the regional.
First round action
The 1997 Yankees were the top seeds in the bracket, ELO ranked among the top 150 teams of all time, winning 96 games but making a rapid exit from the ALDS as a wild card. Derek Jeter and his colleagues were all in place, with offense up and down the lineup and on the bench, and a good rotation for the era with David Cone (12-6, 2.82) tapped for the round one start. They would face the #4 seed 1993 Cardinals, who went 87-75 with good averages but limited power, and Donovan Osborne (10-7, 3.76) was counting on Ozzie Smith to cover a lot of ground because everyone else in the infield was a 4. But even Oz can’t get to a 2-run single that Tino Martinez rifles past 2B-4 Gregg Jeffries in the bottom of the 3rd and the Yanks take the lead. But Jeffries atones in the top of the 4th with a leadoff single, and his AA stealing lets him swipe second where he scores on a Bernard Gilkey single; that rattles Cone horribly and he issues 5 walks that lead to three more runs and the Cards take a 4-2 lead. Cone issues three more walks in the 5th, separated by a Tom Pagnozzi RBI single, and New York summons Mariano Rivera in desperation but Luis Alicea pokes a split single and St. Louis leads 6-2. The Cards keep piling on in the 8th, when Jeffries adds an RBI single and Gilkey misses a HR split but drives in two on the resulting double. In the bottom of the 9th, PH Jorge Posada raps a one-out single but Jeter grounds into the DP and the Cards eliminate the bracket favorite with a 9-2 pasting as another Jeter-era Yankees team makes a quick tournament exit.
The 2003 A’s were still riding the Moneyball wave in winning 96 games and the AL West, but this version wasn’t all about getting on base as they stumbled into a very good starting rotation with Tim Hudson (16-7, 2.70) placing 4th in the Cy Young ballots. On the other hand, the 2010 Orioles lost 96 games and the greatest similarity that they had to the A’s was that they also had Miguel Tejada in the lineup, albeit a much worse version, and while Jeremy Guthrie (11-14, 3.83) was a respectable staff ace, the rotation got much worse very rapidly. Even so, the Orioles rap three singles against Hudson in the top of the 1st, including an RBI hit from Corey Patterson, to open the scoring. And that one run looks like it may be enough as Guthrie doesn’t allow an A’s baserunner until the 4th, and he keeps mowing them down while the O’s add another two runs in the 9th on a Matt Wieters single set up by a 2-base error courtesy of A’s CF-2 Chris Singleton. That provides some padding for Guthrie, who doesn’t need it as he dispatches the top of the A’s order in the bottom of the 9th to finish up a 3-hit shutout and the Orioles move on with a 3-0 upset.
There were three teams in this bracket rated among the top 1000 of all time, and with the other two eliminated in the first round it was up to the 88-74 1998 Blue Jays to try to break the trend as the top remaining seed. Given the season, it was not surprising to find that the Jays had Carlos Delgado, Jose Canseco, and Shawn Green each with over 35 homers, but they also had Cy Young winner Roger Clemens (20-6, 2.65) on the mound, who only allowed 11 homers in 235 innings in that HR-crazy season, suggesting that steroids were a two-way street. The 2010 Nationals lost 93 games and although they had some free swingers of their own, notably Adam Dunn who wasn’t quite done, their rotation was neither deep nor good with only Livan Hernandez (10-12, 3.86) turning in a credible performance. Clemens is bailed out in the 4th when 1-13+2 Ryan Zimmerman is nailed at the plate with a 19 trying to score on an Ian Desmond double, and it looks like he’ll need the support as Hernandez is perfect until Darrin Fletcher converts a split single in the bottom of the 5th. However, in the 7th a leadoff single by Tony Fernandez followed by a double from Delgado are both recorded off Hernandez’s card, and the Nats summon nearly unhittable reliever Joel Peralta to try to preserve the tie. He comes through brilliantly, mowing down the heart of the Jays order to strand both runners and it’s still a scoreless tie heading into the 8th. Both pitcher hold in the 8th, and although Shannon Stewart knocks a leadoff single in the bottom of the 9th, the AA stealer is cut down by Pudge Rodriguez trying to swipe second and the game goes to extra innings still with no score. Clemens is flawless in his final inning of eligibility, while Green leads off the bottom of the 10th with a hard double to put the winning run in scoring position. However, once again Peralta comes through, stranding Green at second to end his usage for the regional, and it will be a brand new ballgame with two new pitchers to begin the 11th. For the Jays, it’s veteran Dan Plesac out of the pen, and he issues a walk to Josh Willingham, who moves to third on a 2-out single by Michael Morse who misses the TR 1-3 split with a 4. That brings up Ryan Zimmerman, who rips a grounder but SS-2 Alex Gonzalez makes a highlight reel play and we move to the bottom of the 11th, where the Nats hand the ball to 21 year old rookie Stephen Strasburg, who escapes a minor jam to send the game to the 12th. Ian Desmond, Roger Bernadina, and Pudge lead off the inning with three squib singles in a row, so the bases are loaded with nobody out and the Jays bring the infield in and pray for an LOMAX. They do get a grounder out of Nyjer Morgan and Desmond is out at the plate for one out, and the infield remains in. Once again, it’s a grounder and this time Bernadina is forced out at home and it’s two away for Josh Willingham, who misses a SI 1-2 split and Plesac pulls off a miraculous escape. It’s then up to Strasburg, who whiffs Canseco, but Shawn Green rolls the 5-5 on Strasburg, HR 1-7, and the split is a 6 for a walkoff shot and the Jays take the 1-0 nailbiter. Plesac earns a shaky win even though Clemens threw 10 shutout innings, allowing only 3 hits while striking out 10.
With two bad teams in the 101-loss 2006 Rays and the 94-loss 2015 Rockies, the ELO rankings were skeptical that somebody here would actually win this game. Actually, looking at the Rockies lineup, I was wondering how they managed to lose so many games with two 40+ HR guys in Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez, and a nice DP combo in Troy Tulowitski and DJ LeMahieu, but then I hit their pitching staff, where Jorge de la Rosa (9-7, 4.17) was the best of bad starter options. The Rays didn’t have anywhere near the lineup of the Rockies, but Scott Kazmir (10-8, 3.24) looked like Christy Mathewson in comparison to the Colorado staff. In the top of the 3rd Ty Wigginton misses a HR 1-14 split with a 15 but drives in Julio Lugo on the resulting double, and the Rays take an early lead. However, in the bottom of the inning Charlie Blackmon doesn’t miss his HR 1-11 split and the 2-run blast pushes the Rockies ahead. Travis Lee quickly responds with a solo shot in the top of the 4th that briefly ties things up, but Gonzalez crushes one into the thin air of Coors to lead off the bottom of the inning to continue the home run derby for another Colorado lead. Once again it’s short-lived, as Carl Crawford leads off the 5th with a walk, steals second, and races home on a single from Rocco Baldelli and things are tied once more. Things stay quiet until Delmon Young leads off the top of the 8th with a single, and the Rockies briefly eye a gruesome bullpen before turning away in horror and stick with de la Rosa, which works out as Arenado turns a nifty DP to eliminate the threat. Both starters then get their second wind, and the game proceeds to extra innings with both tossing perfect frames in the 10th to finish their eligibility. That means that the Rockies have to go to the pen, and their “closer” John Axford comes in to begin the 11th and immediately surrenders a homer to Delmon Young, so the Rays take the one run lead into the bottom of the inning with Ruddy Lugo charged with preserving the win against the heart of the Colorado order. A base hit by Arenado puts the tying run aboard, and with two out CF-2 Baldelli misplays a Corey Dickerson hit to put the tying run on third and the winning run on 2nd, and Tulowitzki at the plate. Lugo delivers, it’s a grounder to 2B-3 Wigginton, and he drops it for the second Tampa error of the inning and the game is tied. The Rays stick with Lugo but he is rattled, and Nick Hundley lines a single into the outfield, Dickerson trots home with the winning run and bad Tampa fielding hands the Rockies the walkoff 5-4 win.
The survivors
This semifinal matched two upset winners from round one, although the 1993 Cardinals were a winning team and their Bob Tewksbury (17-10, 3.83) compared favorably to the starter for the 2010 Orioles, Brian Matusz (10-12, 4.30). Things start out ugly in the bottom of the 1st for the O’s, as cleanup hitter Ty Wigginton kills a rally by hitting into an inning-ending DP and getting injured for seven games while he was at it. The Cards sense an opening and they load the bases in the top of the 2nd, getting two runs from a fielder's choice and a bases loaded walk although it could have been worse as they leave three runners aboard. They do get another in the 3rd when Bernard Gilkey misses a HR 1-13/DO but Gregg Jeffries races home on the double, although Gilkey is again stranded in scoring position. However, in the bottom of the 4th Tewksbury feels a twinge in his arm and the Cards have to pull him, giving Les Lancaster a chance in long relief. His first pitch to fellow injury replacement Jake Fox is a tape-measure solo homer, and the Cards nervously check other options in the pen, but Lancaster gets out of the inning without further damage. Gilkey adds to his RBI total with a run-scoring single in the top of the 5th to extend the St. Louis lead to 4-1, and in the bottom of the 6th the Cards decide to preserve Lancaster and bring in their closer Lee Smith, who somehow managed 43 saves with a terrible card. A two-out solo blast by Mark Whiten in the top of the 8th provides Smith with additional padding, and a host of defensive replacements come in for the Cards. The O’s do get two aboard with two out in the 9th, but Smith avoids his HR issues and gets Matt Wieters for the final out to earn the save and the Cardinals head to the regional finals with a comfortable 5-1 win.The #3 seeded 1998 Blue Jays were the top ranked team still surviving after round one, and they barely survived a scoreless marathon burning their ace starter as well as taxing their bullpen. Their rotation now drops off abruptly, with Woody Williams (10-9, 4.46) hoping for a lot of run support from their powerful lineup. However, the 2015 Rockies had some bashers of their own, and Chad Bettis (8-6, 4.23) was still a serviceable starter, unlike the remaining options that occupied the Rockies rotation. Bettis starts out nicely, but Jose Canseco ends the top of the 3rd by lining one off the pitcher’s shin and Bettis has to leave the game, with Boone Logan coming out of the Rockies’ bad bullpen to take over. In the bottom of the inning Nolan Arenado gives him a lead to work with by converting a TR 1-4/flyB split for two runs, and Carlos Gonzalez follows that with a 2-run homer to put Colorado up 4-0. In the bottom of the 5th Corey Dickerson rolls Williams’ solid 6-9 HR for a solo shot and the Jays have seen enough, bringing in game one winner Dan Plesac in desperation. He holds, and Toronto gets down to business in the top of the 6th, getting two straight pinch hits and loading the bases with nobody out. They get a 2-run single from Shannon Stewart but then leave the bases loaded, narrowing the gap to three runs. The Jays load the bases again in the 7th, and again Stewart comes through with a single that drives in two, but this time Tony Fernandez follows it up with an RBI single that ties the game and Logan is gone for game one winner John Axford, but Carlos Delgado drills one into the right field corner and Stewart and Fernandez race home on the double for a Toronto lead. The Rockies waste no time in response, as Arenado leads off the bottom of the 7th with a colossal homer, Gonzalez goes back to back, and the game is tied and Plesac is evicted and Kelvim Escobar tries his hand at relief. And the thin air triumphs again as Dickerson makes it back-to-back-to-back, and it’s back to a one-run Colorado edge entering the 8th–which vanishes immediately, as Shawn Green leads off the inning with a long blast and tournament officials wire headquarters for an emergency shipment of more baseballs. Axford then loads up the bases with one out for Stewart again, but he hits a grounder and the runner is forced at home for two outs. That brings up Fernandez, and it’s his turn for the two-run single off Axford and the Jays regain the lead. Jose Canseco leads off the 9th with a homer for the Jays, and Tony Phillips later adds a run-scoring single to pad the lead further. In the bottom of the 9th, Escobar is a little rough and the Rockies get a run on a passed ball by backup catcher Benito Santiago, but it’s not enough as the Jays escape with a wild 12-9 win and head to the finals with two remarkable comeback wins but a seriously depleted pen.
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