REGIONAL #172:   The team that most caught my eye in this group of also-rans was the 1950 Dodgers, who won the NL pennant the previous year and would be a playoff game away from winning the following season.  I also noted the 2001 A’s, who I thought would be the group immediately preceding the “Moneyball” season.  There were teams several years past their primes, like the Braves, Orioles, and a Browns squad four seasons past the only pennant in their history.  I thought that the Astros could be a contender, but that my White Sox jinx would quickly dispatch what I remembered as a mediocre squad.  My prediction was for a Dodgers/A’s final with the Bums coming out on top.  The ELO rankings foretold the same teams in the final, but although the Dodgers were ranked as the best team in the NL that year, the A’s were portrayed as among the top 40 teams in baseball history and were ELO favorites here.

First round action

The 2005 Pirates were one of those teams where I couldn’t spontaneously name a single player on the roster, and even after looking at them I doubt I’d pass a multiple choice test.  They lost 95 games but there were a few bright spots, like Jason Bay and strong up-the-middle defense, but the rotation was dreadful with Dave Williams (10-11, 4.41) hoping to make it until the bullpen could take over.  In contrast, I could name a bunch of the 1986 Orioles, but that didn’t keep them from losing 89 games as most of those names weren’t having their best seasons, such as Mike Flanagan (7-11, 4.24), who was nonetheless the best the O’s could come up with.  Baltimore jumps out in front in the bottom of the 1st when Juan Beniquez converts a split triple off Williams’ card and Eddie Murray’s sac fly brings him home.  Back to back doubles by Jose Castillo and Daryle Ward to lead off the 4th tie it up for the Pirates, and Bay puts them ahead in the 5th generating a run when he singles, steals second, and races home on a Castillo base hit.  Tom O’Malley promptly ties it back up in the bottom of the inning with a solo shot resulting from Williams’ solid 5-9 HR result, and in the 6th a clutch fielding play by O’s LF-2 John Shelby saves a couple of runs.  When Baltimore begins the bottom of the 6th with a single and a walk, Williams is history and Paul Maholm comes in, but yields a 2-out single to Larry Sheets and the O’s take a 3-2 lead.  Flanagan gets two out in the 7th but then walks two; after a conference at the mound Earl Weaver decides to let him pitch to pinch hitter and propane heir Bobby Hill, and gets the pride of Arlen TX to pop out.  A leadoff single in the 8th off Flanagan’s card and Weaver has seen enough, and Don Aase comes out of the pen, and the first roll is a HR 1-7/flyB on Aase but the Pirates miss the split to go down quietly.  It’s then Aase against the top of the Pirates order in the 9th, and he records three straight outs, the final one hitting the hole in Bay’s one column for a strikeout and the Orioles hold on for the 3-2 win.

I was surprised when I discovered that the 2001 A’s were ranked in the top 40 teams of all time by the ELO numbers; they did win 102 games (but not their division, courtesy of the Mariners) and had a power-packed lineup with a couple of Giambi’s and Eric Chavez leading the way, as well as a very good rotation where I went with Tim Hudson (18-9, 3.37), who finished 6th place in the Cy Young voting, over the Cy Young runner up Mark Mulder.  Still, they didn’t look that much better to me than the 2006 Braves, a 79-83 team that underplayed their Pythagorean projection; the A’s would need to keep up with the Jones’s Chipper and Andruw, as well as the rest of a deadly heart of the order.  The Braves shortcoming was in their starting rotation, and although Hudson was also in the Atlanta rotation it was John Smoltz (16-9, 3.49) who was the obvious choice for the round one start.  Hudson gets two quick outs in the top of the 1st and then commits a 2-base error that opens the floodgates; three straight hits later, the Braves lead 2-0.  The Braves defense gives a run back in the 2nd courtesy of a 2-out 2-base error by SS-3 Edgar Renteria, and then the A’s tie it in the 3rd on an Eric Chavez sac fly.   From there, both pitchers are sharp, but in the bottom of the 7th the A’s pinch hit for Ron Gant with Jeremy Giambi to begin the inning in an effort to get someone on base, and the little Giambi crushes a homer to hand the A’s the lead.  However, the inning ends when 1-16 Jermaine Dye is nailed at the plate trying to score on a Miguel Tejada single and it’s still a one-run game entering the 9th.  Hudson, who has been nails most of the game, walks the first two batters in the top of the 9th and the A’s summon closer Isringhausen to try to escape the jam.  Izzy gets the first two out to face Jeff Francoeur, who lofts a flyball out to the A’s worst defensive outfielder, LF-3 Terrence Long.  The split roll is a 10, an out nestled between two doubles, and the A’s scrape by in round one with the 3-2 win.

A wayward Gil Hodges delayed my first round game with the 1950 Dodgers, but through the wonders of eBay the game could finally go on.  This team was worth the wait, as the 89-65 squad missed the pennant by two games and ELO ranked them as the best team in the NL, with a great Boys of Summer lineup although the rotation after Don Newcombe (19-11, 3.70) was uneven.  They were huge favorites over a 59-94 1948 Browns team, who had won a fluke pennant a few seasons earlier but had bad defense, little power, and Cliff Fannin (10-14, 4.17) atop a weak rotation.  However, in the bottom of the 1st a veteran of that pennant-winning team, Al Zarilla, crushes one into the cheap seats at Sportsman’s Park to give the Browns the early lead.  However, the Bums quickly tie it in the 2nd as Browns SS-4 Eddie Pellagrini can’t get to a Billy Cox grounder, and then 2B-3 Jerry Priddy boots another grounder to score a run; Jackie Robinson then rips a 2-out triple to score two more and the Dodgers take the lead.  That doesn’t last long, as the Browns bat around in the bottom of the 3rd and take a 6-3 lead by the time the dust settles; the Dodgers eye their pen but there’s nothing anywhere near the caliber of Newk so he’s on his own.  Brooklyn gets one back in the 4th on a Les Moss passed ball, so in the 6th the Browns go all in on the defensive replacements to try to maintain the lead.  In the 7th Robinson doubles and Campanella singles him home to make it a one run game, and DH Gene Hermanski leads off the 8th converting his split HR to tie things up once again.  Fannin then walks three to load the bases for Campanella with two away, but with the Browns pen being horrific he stays in the game and retires Campy for no further damage.   St. Louis then regains the lead on an RBI single from Dillinger in the bottom of the inning, so it comes to the 9th with the Bums down by one.  Furillo goes down, Russell goes down, and PH Tommy Brown is fanned by Fannin as the Browns pull off the upset with a 7-6 hard-fought victory.

The 2012 White Sox would be the next group of South Siders to try to overcome my Sox jinx, and this was a good squad that won 85 games and by their Pythagorean projections should have won more.  They had nice years from Alex Rios, AJ Pierzynski, and Paul Konerko, and although DH Adam Dunn was pretty much done, there was low AB wondercard Dan Johnson and his .818 SLG% just waiting for the 6th inning.  There was also Chris Sale (17-8, 3.05) on the mound who was 6th in the Cy Young voting, and he would be facing the 1993 Astros, who also won 85 games and ELO had this as a dead even matchup.   The Astros had the Bagwell/Biggio tandem as well as Mark Portugal (18-4, 2.77), who was also 6th in his NL Cy Young vote, so it seemed that the teams couldn’t be more evenly balanced.  The Astros score in the 3rd when catcher Ed Taubensee avoids the tag at home, scoring on a Bagwell single with two out; Sale then walks a batter to load the bases and yields another hit on his 6-6 result (same as Bagwell) to Andujar Cedeno that scores two more.  They add another in the 4th as Steve Finley triples and scores on a Luis Gonzalez single, but a 2-base error by Astros RF-3 Eric Anthony in the bottom of the inning rattles Portugal and he loads up the bases for Rios, who converts his HR split for a grand slam that closes the four-run deficit with one swing.  Luis Gonzalez leads off the 6th with a double, and the Sox don’t trust their pen much and stick with Sale, who promptly allows a run-scoring single to Bagwell (the 13th hit Sale has allowed) and the Astros take the lead and the Sox try Hector Santiago on the mound.  The Sox get men on 1st and 3rd with two out in the bottom of the inning, so Houston sends Portugal packing and Xavier Hernandez comes in to retire Rios and preserve the lead.  A two run double by Caminiti in the 9th gives the Astros some insurance, and Todd Jones comes in to clean up in the bottom of the 9th and Houston moves on to the semis with the 7-4 win and my Sox jinx marches on.

The survivors

Having barely survived round one, the bracket favorite 2001 A’s had Cy Young runner-up Mark Mulder (21-8, 3.45) ready to go for their semifinal matchup with the 1986 Orioles, who would be trying to ride out Storm Davis (9-12, 3.62).  The O’s come out swinging in the top of the 1st, starting with two straight hits off Mulder’s card and both runners score after a Fred Lynn sac fly and a Cal Ripken double.  The 4th inning is even worse for Mulder, as he commits two errors, 3B-1 Eric Chavez adds another, and Mulder issues two bases-loaded walks en route to a four run inning and Baltimore extends their lead to 6-0.  A leadoff single by Larry Sheets in the 5th and Mulder has got to go, with Jeff Tam coming in to allow four straight hits and he’s gone without recording an out, so Isringhausen is summoned and Eddie Murray converts Izzy’s HR 1-3 split for a two-run shot that sends the few remaining A’s fans heading for the exits with the scoreboard reading Baltimore 12, Oakland 0.   The A’s try to begin the long road back in the 6th as Gant drives in a run with a double and ultimately scores on a sac fly from Jermaine Dye, but with Izzy burnt for the regional the A’s have to move to Chad Bradford in the 7th, who promptly allows a 3-run homer to Lynn and the hole just gets deeper.  Terrence Long knocks a solo HR for Oakland in the bottom of the 7th, and Miguel Tejada adds a 3-run shot in the 8th to make things a little closer.   However, with that lead Davis is in inning-eating mode, and he does the job as the O’s close out the 15-6 mauling of the regional favorite and Earl Weaver earns a trip to the finals with his #6 seeded squad.

The 1993 Astros were now the top remaining seed in the bracket, and their path to the finals looked pretty clear with only the lowly #8 seed 1948 Browns standing in their way.  The Astros were hoping that Pete Harnisch (16-9, 2.98) could go the distance after stretching their bullpen in the first round, while the Browns didn’t have to worry about that, having essentially no bullpen to support starter Ned Garver (7-11, 3.41).  The Browns also don’t look particularly worried about the Astros after upsetting a tough Dodgers team in round one, and they begin the top of the 1st this game with Astro 2B-3 Craig Biggio dropping a ball, a double by Al Zarilla, and then Jerry Priddy knocks a single under the glove of Biggio and the ice is broken with still nobody out.  ‘Stros 3B-1 Ken Caminiti then turns a DP but a second run scores and Houston has a problem, early.  A 2-base error by 1B-2 Jeff Bagwell in the 4th sets up a Whitey Platt sac fly to worsen the problem, and with a leadoff double by Platt in the 6th Harnisch is pulled for Xavier Hernandez as the Astros desperately try to stay in the game.  He isn’t the answer either, as he walks two to load the bases, whiffs two, and then Zarilla knocks his third hit of the game to drive in two and a squib single from Priddy scores another and the upstart Browns now lead 6-0.  The Astros get on the board in the bottom of the 7th when Chris James leads off with a triple and scores on an Andujar Cedeno single, but the Browns lead off the 8th with doubles from Chuck Stevens and Zarilla against new Houston pitcher Todd Jones to get the run back.  In the bottom of the 9th, a 2-base error by Browns RF-3 Zarilla sets up a sac fly but it’s not enough as the Browns head to the finals with the convincing 7-2 victory, with Garver only allowing three hits.

An unlikely regional final matches the #6 seed 1986 Orioles, with a collection of players past their prime, against the #8 seeded 1948 Browns, most of whom never had a prime and who would never win the Series until they eventually became the Orioles.  The real Orioles would be going with Mike Boddicker (14-12, 4.70) and a fully rested pen, while the Browns had 20 game loser Fred Sanford (12-21, 4.64) and no pen to speak of.  The Orioles had scored in the first inning of every game in the regional and they got men on 2nd and 3rd with one out courtesy of an Eddie Murray double, but Sanford strands them and breaks the O’s streak of first inning leads.  However, Larry Sheets leads off the 2nd with a towering homer, but the Browns respond with a Whitey Platt double and RBI single by Paul Lehner, both off Boddicker’s card, and it’s 1-1 after two.  In the 4th, Jerry Priddy leads off with a double and advances to 3rd on a deep fly by Kokos; the O’s bring the infield in but Les Moss rips it through the infield for a gbA++ single and the Browns take the lead.  Priddy hits another leadoff double in the 6th, and this time Baltimore can go to the bullpen for Don Aase to try to stave off a rally; he sets down three in a row and it remains a one-run game.  When Sheets leads off the 7th with a walk, Earl Weaver summons AA stealer Alan Wiggins to pinch run and he steals second easily on C-4 Moss, but Sanford bears down and strands Wiggins to maintain the lead.  The Browns take that lead into the top of the 9th, and the crowd at Sportsman’s Park is on its feet in support of their unlikely heroes.  However, a Ripken grounder goes through the legs of 3B-4 Bob Dillinger for a two-base error and the tying run is in scoring position with nobody out.  A rattled Sanford delivers to Fred Lynn, and it’s a base hit, 1-15 Ripken heads for home….and he’s nailed, one out, Lynn takes second on the throw.  Rick Dempsey, in for Sheets, pops out, and with their backs to the wall, Weaver pinch hits with veteran Jim Dwyer.  Sanford delivers, 2-10 roll, Dwyer crushes it into the farthest reaches of the park for a 2-run shot and the Orioles suddenly lead.  Tom O’Malley then singles, and Weaver summons another PH in Jim Traber; it’s a 3-6 roll, HR 1-10/flyB and the split is a 7 for another 2-run shot.  Lee Lacy then doubles past defensive replacement LF-2 Don Lund and scores on a Juan Beniquez single, and by the time the Browns can get the third out the Orioles lead by four and Brad Havens is brought in to mop up in the 9th and preserve Aase for later rounds.  He does the job and the Orioles take the regional with an incredible comeback 6-2 win; in an unusual move the O’s award regional MVP honors to manager Earl Weaver, who had come back for his final year of managing and whose every move in this regional seemed to turn to gold.

Interesting card of Regional #172:  This card commemorates a baseball movie that is probably enjoyed by many a Strat player, 2011’s Moneyball (based on the 2003 book).   The film, which commemorates the 2002 A’s season, begins with the dismantling of the 102-win 2001 A’s team to free agency, with Billy Beane bemoaning the loss of players like Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi.  Enter Strat-like baseball analytics, and the team is magically rebuilt and goes on to win their division fueled by a record 20-game winning streak.  A key element of the story is that Giambi is successfully replaced at 1B by the apparently washed-up converted catcher Scott Hatteberg.  While it made for a great subplot, I can’t imagine many Strat players would make that swap, and you have to wonder how far the A’s could have gone if they’d been able to hold on to Giambi, who had been the AL MVP in 2000 and the MVP runner-up in the 2001 season represented by this card.  One advantage of this game over the real thing is that, if you’ve got the 2002 cards, you can always pull Giambi off the Yankees, put him back on the A’s, and give it a shot with Strat!