REGIONAL #170:  There weren’t any pennant winners in this group, but I knew there were a number that were close.  There were two Boston entries that were each one year off:  the 2008 Red Sox had won the AL the prior season, while the ‘66 Red Sox would win one the following season, although I remembered that they did so with a miraculous improvement over the prior season.  The ‘73 Reds had won the NL the prior year but were switching gears between different versions of the Big Red Machine, and the 2005 Yanks had won a pennant two seasons earlier although their turn of the millennium dynasty was in decline.  The ‘87 White Sox were four seasons past winning their division, while the brand new expansion Royals weren’t likely to last long here.  My guess is that there would still be enough gas in the tank of the Big Red Machine to get to the finals and prevail over the Yankees; I didn’t expect that the ELO rankings would portray the ‘08 Red Sox as the best team in MLB and in this bracket, predicting that they would top the Reds in the final after a challenge from the Yankees in round one.  

First round action

Because the 1987 White Sox were not a particular sentimental favorite of mine, I figured they might have some chance in this regional although they were a mediocre 77-85 team that had some remnants of past (e.g. Fisk, Baines) and future (e.g., Ozzie G.) Sox teams that were favorites.  They also had Floyd Bannister (16-11, 3.58), who didn’t allow that many hits but when he did, they tended to go a long way.  The Sox were slight ELO underdogs to the 2008 A’s, although I wasn’t sure why as the A’s had a worse 75-86 record and for a Billy Beane moneyball team, they really weren’t very good at getting on base.  The A’s did come armed with a huge pile of cards, many of them quite bad, but one good card was possessed by starter Justin Duchscherer (10-8, 2.54) whose career ended shortly thereafter with arm problems.  The A’s quickly put up two in the top of the 1st with a Mark Ellis RBI single followed by a run-scoring error by Sox 2B-4 Donnie Hill, and a solo HR from A’s DH Emil Brown extends the lead to 3-0 in the 3rd.  Three straight two-out singles give the A’s another run in the 4th, but in the bottom of the 5th the Sox bats come alive, with RBI doubles from Gary Redus and Ivan Calderon tying up the game.  When Greg Walker leads off the bottom of the 6th with a homer, the Sox take the lead for the first time in the game, old Comiskey is rocking, and the A’s show they mean business by turning the game over to reliever Joey Devine with his 0.59 ERA, without a hit on his card, and he retires the side.  Sensing a bullpen battle from here out, the Sox bring in Dave Lapoint to begin the 7th, which turns out nicely since one of the A’s rolls in the inning would have hit one of Bannister’s HR results.  Calderon does hit one of his for a solo shot in the bottom of the inning to provide a little insurance, which is quickly cashed in as SS-2 Guillen makes TWO 2-base errors in the top of the 8th to hand the A’s a run and make it a one-run game entering the 9th.  The Sox decide to stick with Lapoint over erratic closer Bobby Thigpen even though this will force a one-game rest on him, and that works out as Lapoint retires the A’s in order and earns the save in the 6-5 Sox win.

The 1973 Reds won 99 games (most in the NL) and the NL West, but were upset in the NLCS by the upstart Mets.  This version of the Big Red Machine featured big years from Morgan, Perez and Rose, and Jack Billingham (19-10, 3.04) earned 4th place in the Cy Young vote.  They faced the 1966 Red Sox, who lost 90 games (although somehow they managed to win the AL the following season); this team was led by Yaz and Tony Conigliaro with Lee Stange (8-9, 3.30) getting the game one start.  The Reds quickly load the bases in the top of the 1st with Stange having trouble finding the strike zone, but only come away with one run on a Johnny Bench sac fly.  Don Demeter answers in the 4th, putting a solo shot over the Green Monster to tie the game, and a 2-out rally in the 5th that includes RBI singles from Yaz and Demeter puts Boston up 3-1.  The Reds close to within one in the 7th when a run scores on a fielder’s choice from PH Phil Gagliano, but the Sox get it back in the bottom of the inning when Demeter once again comes through, this time with a two-out RBI single.  A leadoff hit by George Scott in the bottom of the 8th and the Reds are forced to admit that their ace simply doesn’t have it, and they move to Dick Baney from the pen and he retires the side without incident, bringing the game to the 9th with Boston up by two.  However, the Red Machine is making Stange noises, and Lee closes out a 4-hitter to send the Red Sox to the semifinals with the 4-2 upset.

The ELO ranks for this round one game suggested that this could perhaps be the worst matchup in the history of the tournament.  In one corner was the freshly minted expansion 1969 Royals, who lost 93 games but did rank as the best of the four expansion teams that season, with a decent rotation with Roger Nelson (7-13, 3.31) getting the start. In the other corner was the 47-114 2019 Tigers.  The source that I use for the ELO ratings provides a composite rank that melds the peak, season end, and season average ratings for each team, but only does so through the 2015 season, so for later seasons I just use the season-ending rank since that is basically what the Strat cards represent.  Impressively, the season-ending ELO rating for the Tigers was considerably worse than the composite ELO rating for any other team in MLB in 1900 through 2016, meaning that they merit consideration as the worst team in baseball history.  The Tigers combined bad fielding, little power (their leading HR hitter had 13), and a sorry rotation with Matt Boyd (9-12, 4.56) drawing the short straw for the start.  The game begins with Royals RF-3 Bob Oliver turning a Victory Reyes flyball into a double, and Nick Castellanos drives him home with a single off Nelson for a quick lead.  The Royals respond when Oliver atones by finding Boyd’s solid HR result for a solo shot, and then Jerry Adair singles and scores on an Ellie Rodriguez double and KC takes a 2-1 lead.  However, doubles by Castellanos and Niko Goodrum tie it up in the top of the 3rd, and in the bottom of the inning AA stealer Pat Kelly gets thrown out trying to steal second, for the second time in the game, by Tigers C-4 John Hicks.  However, Hicks apparently threw out his arm in the efforts, as he has to leave the game in the 4th with an injury that will end his tournament appearances.   In the 5th, twin doubles from Castellanos and Goodrum strike again–the second courtesy of another botched flyball from RF Oliver–and the Tigers regain a 3-2 lead.  All the failed base stealing from Kelly seems to have also gotten to him, as he comes up lame in the bottom of the 5th and is out until the regional final.  In the top of the 6th, the Tigers get a single followed by a double from injury replacement Grayson Greiner, off Nelson’s card, and the Royals fetch Moe Drabowsky from the pen to try to get out of the jam and keep the game close.  He fans one but then a sharp single from Reyes scores both runners to extend the Detroit lead to 5-2.   In the 8th, Joe Foy narrows the lead by leading off with a HR off Boyd’s solid HR result, and the Tigers are eyeing their one good reliever but decide to give Boyd a bit more time; when Mike Fiore then doubles off the pitcher’s card, this Boyd has flown and closer Shane Greene and his 1.18 ERA replaces him.  With two out, Oliver singles and Fiore (1-14) races home successfully and it’s a one-run game heading into the 9th.  Drabowsky is perfect in the top of the 9th, so it’s up to Greene and a bunch of defensive replacements to stave off the Royals in the bottom of the inning.  PH Paul Schaal does squib out a single with one out to put the tying run aboard, but injury replacement Bob Taylor hits into a double play and the Tigers survive with a 5-4 win in which their terrible defense was entirely untested by any X-chart result.  

The best matchup of the regional was also between two bitter rivals, the #1 seeded 2008 Red Sox and the #3 seed 2005 Yankees.  The Yankees won 95 games and tied the Red Sox for the AL East crown, but lost the ALDS; the Jeter-era Yanks have made a poor showing in this tournament but this version had AL MVP ARod and also had big Randy Johnson (17-8, 3.79) on the mound.  The Red Sox also won 95 games but were eliminated in a 7-game ALCS, and they also had the AL MVP in Dustin Pedroia, and Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90) came in 4th in the Cy Young balloting and may have deserved more votes.   In the top of the 1st, Johnson watches Manny being Manny as Ramirez hits a 2-run homer and then Johnson falls apart, allowing three more Boston hits including a 2-out 2-run single from Jacob Ellsbury, and the Red Sox jump to a 4-0 lead before New York can swing a bat.  Johnson settles down quickly, although the Yankees don’t get their first hit off Matsuzaka until the 4th, but that’s followed by a second hit from Gary Sheffield that drives in a run to narrow the gap to 4-1.  In the 6th, Johnson allows a single to Jason Bay and that’s followed by a JD Drew homer off Johnson’s solid 5-9 result, and in desperation the Yankees turn to Mariano Rivera to try to turn things around.  In the 8th, Yankee PH Matt Lawton draws a walk that starts a 2-out rally that leads to RBI singles from Hideki Matsui and ARod, and Boston finally turns to closer Jonathan Papelbon with the bases loaded and he whiffs Sheffield and it’s still 6-3 Boston heading into the 8th with both closers in the game.  The Red Sox get a two-out rally of their own in the top of the 8th with a Drew double followed by a Mike Lowell RBI single, so the Red Sox take their three run lead into the bottom of the 9th, and then things start to unravel.  The Yankees get two hits off the card of the nearly unhittable Papelbon, and 2B-1 Pedroia does the unthinkable and makes an error, and one run is in, nobody is out, the tying run is at the plate in the form of ARod, who draws a walk and the bases are loaded.  Papelbon delivers to Jason Giambi, and the result is a HR 1-8/flyB; the split is a 13, and the grand slam is missed but a run scores on the sac fly.  Up comes Sheffield, and it’s another squib single off Papelbon’s card and the bases are loaded with the winning run at 1st.  The pitch to Robinson Cano is a beaut, and it’s a gbA, the Red Sox turn the DP to eliminate their rivals and move on with the 7-5 nailbiter.   

The survivors

After their first round upset of the Big Red Machine, the 1966 Red Sox were determined to keep hopes alive for an all-Boston final, with swingman Bucky Brandon (8-8, 3.31) getting the semifinal start.  He would face the 1987 White Sox, who had to rely on bullpen help to survive round one and so they were hoping for a prolonged appearance by workhorse Richard Dotson (11-12, 4.17).  The Chicagoans strike in the top of the 1st with a leadoff double from Gary Redus and another timely hit from Ivan Calderon that drives in a run, but the Pale Hose don’t convert further and they leave the bases loaded.  Thus, their lead dissipates immediately in the bottom of the inning when a leadoff walk is followed by a 2-run homer from Joe Foy, and then George Smith adds another two-run blast in the bottom of the 3rd.  Dotson can’t recover from this onslaught, and he loads the bases for a 2-run single by Don Demeter and the Sox move to closer Bobby Thigpen with one out in the 2nd, never a good sign.  Thigpen then delivers a softball to Tony Conigliaro, who puts it in the Fenway stands for a three-run blast and by the time Thigpen gets the final out, Boston has knocked out 7 hits and 7 runs in the inning and lead 9-1 after two.  Yaz adds an RBI single in the 5th to push Boston into double digits, and in the 7th defensive replacement Dalton Jones hits a solo shot off Chisox #3 starter Jose Deleon to add to the dogpile.  Chicago makes some noise in the 8th with a rally started by a Greg Walker triple, with RBI singles from Carlton Fisk and Ozzie Guillen narrowing the Boston lead slightly, but Brandon is still handed the ball in the 9th and closes things out in order, with Calderon getting injured on the last out of the game just to put the exclamation point on the Boston 11-4 win.

The second Boston team in the semifinals, the top-seeded 2008 Red Sox entered this second round game as overwhelming favorites against the truly bad #8 seed 2019 Tigers.  Although Red Sox closer Papelbon would have to rest after an extended outing in their first round battle, it didn’t seem that he would be necessary as starter Jon Lester (16-6, 3.21) was so much better than Detroit’s Spencer Turnbull (3-17, 4.61) that Fenway fans were looking for a drubbing.  The Red Sox take a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the 1st without recording a hit, as a couple of walks and a Manny Ramirez sac fly produce a score.  The Bosox don’t get their first hit until the 5th, but it turns into a run when the bad Tiger defense finally gets tested and SS-3 Niko Goodrum’s 2-out error allows a run to score.  Pedroia follows that with an RBI single and it’s 3-0 Boston after five.  However, in the top of the 6th the Fenway crowd looks on in disbelief as 2B-1 Pedroia and 3B-2 Mike Lowell make errors that allow one run to score and then load the bases with one out; the Tigers summon PH Jordy Mercer and he rolls and converts Lester’s HR 1-4 split for a grand slam and suddenly the not-so-tame Tigers lead by two.  In the bottom of the 7th, Big Papi David Ortiz comes off the bench to PH and crushes a solo shot that narrows the lead to one.  However, in the 8th Pedroia makes his second error of the game and then 3rd string Tiger catcher Jake Rogers rolls Lester’s HR split, missing it but scoring the runner on the resulting double, and Lester is gone in favor of Hideki Okajima but the Tigers lead by two.  That buys Turnbull a little more time but a leadoff single from Jason Bay in the bottom of the inning and it’s time for closer Shane Greene, who saved game one and was probably the Tigers’ most valuable player.  And Greene is perfection, retiring Pedroia for the last of six straight outs to propel the unlikely Tigers to the finals with the 6-4 win over the stunned bracket favorites–but with Greene burnt for the regional.  

This regional final seemed to come from some sort of inverse mirror baseball universe, with the 90-loss 1966 Red Sox against the 114-loss 2019 Tigers each having pulled consecutive upsets to reach this point.  The setup seemed reminiscent of the semifinal game with a Red Sox team boasting a much better starting pitcher in Jose Santiago (12-13, 3.66) as compared to Detroit’s seemingly terrible Daniel Norris (3-13, 4.49) but by this point it was clear the unexpected was to be expected in this regional, and Vegas wasn’t even accepting bets.  And the bottom of the 1st reveals that the Tigers’ magic isn’t over, as they bat around knocking five hits that score five runs, with a Nick Castellanos triple getting things under way and a Harold Castro 2-run single capping things off.  However, in the top of the 2nd a 2-base error by Tigers 1B-5 Miggy Cabrera sets up a couple of runs from the bottom of the Red Sox order to narrow the gap temporarily, but the Tigers retaliate in the 3rd with run-scoring hits from Cabrera and Castro, and finally a 2-out 2-run homer from injury replacement Grayson Greiner off Santiago’s card chases the Boston starter for veteran reliever Don McMahon, but it’s now 9-2 Detroit.  In the top of the 5th Yaz hits a 2-run homer in an effort to climb back into the game, but in the 7th the Sox lose CF and cleanup hitter Don Demeter to injury for the remainder of the game, which does not help their cause.  The Red Sox do load the bases in the 8th on two walks and an error by SS-3 Niko Goodrum, but PH Lenny Green hits into a DP to end the rally without a run.  Although Red Sox relievers hold the Tigers hitless after Santiago was pulled in the 3rd, it makes no difference as Norris is good enough, retiring Yaz for the last out in the 9th and the incredible Tigers pull off the 9-4 win to take the regional–certainly a contender for the worst team to win a bracket in the history of the tournament.

Interesting card of Regional #170:  Interesting card of Regional #170:  This regional sported three different MVPs, and the way all of their teams crashed and burned in the bracket I was left wondering what was so valuable about all of them. I guess Pete Rose won the MVP in 1973 because he led the NL in batting average, but I didn’t think he was even the best player on his team and he annoyed me as a player, a manager, and a gambler.  The next was ARod in 2005, who probably had the best season of the three award-winners, but if he was so valuable then how did the White Sox manage to win their first championship in nine decades that season?   But the least valuable most valuable player in this regional had to be the 2008 AL MVP, who won the award by leading the league in hits and runs scored.  He also won the Gold Glove, which is ironic because in the two games that his teams played in this tournament, Pedroia made THREE errors, all of them leading to runs for the opposition.  As a reminder, on the Basic X-Chart, a 2B-1 has no chance of allowing a hit and ONE chance of making an error–with a roll of 17 on the d20 split die–and Pedroia managed to hit that error nearly every time he got an X-chance.   Pedroia was only the 4th second baseman in American League history to win the MVP, and the first since Nellie Fox nearly half a century earlier (for trivia buffs, the other two were Charlie Gehringer and Joe Gordon).  However, in this tournament he was uniquely valuable--for the other team.