SECTIONAL IV:  This group included three pennant winners and two more division winners, and with the exception of a rather mediocre modern Padres team all of them are the types of teams that would be expected to go this deep in the tournament.   The recent Dodgers team here had one of the best season-ending ELO ratings in MLB history and thus are favored over the curse-breaking 2016 Cubs, but those Dodgers might need to first get past the daunting rotation of the 1999 Braves to move on.  The eight entries and their paths to the sectional:

2016 Cubs:  ELO ranking 48, actual record 103-58, World Series champions.  The Cubs team that broke the curse in real life has been similarly charmed thus far in the tournament, despite losing Addison Russel, Javier Baez, and Albert Almora to injury at various points in the tournament.  Teams defeated to reach round seven:  1995 Phillies (1369) 4-2; 1996 Indians (102) 7-2; 1999 Blue Jays (987) 5-4; 1965 Phillies (1150) 7-4; 2012 Cardinals (505) 15-3; 2019 White Sox (2103) 4-3.  Key performers: /Anthony Rizzo 4 HR 8 RBI, Kris Bryant 1 HR 7 RBI, Willson Contreras 6 RBI.  Injuries:  Albert Almora (1 more game).

1997 Marlins:  ELO ranking 607, actual record 92-70, World Series champions.   A flash-in-the-pan Series champion that pulled off a number of close wins to reach the sectional level, they had to get runs from across the lineup and relied on their pen to keep them in the game. Teams defeated to reach round seven:  2003 Rays (2192) 4-2; 1991 Royals (1159) 3-2; 2014 Angels (321) 1-0; 2003 Astros (634) 4-1; 1987 Expos (1006) 6-3; 1984 Rangers (1803) 3-2 (11).  Key performers: Charles Johnson 2 HR 4 RBI, Darren Daulton 1 HR 3 RBI, Cliff Floyd 1 HR 3 RBI, Jay Powell 4 IP, 1 HA, 1-0, 2 SV, 0.00.  

1987 Tigers:  ELO ranking 296, actual record 98-64, won AL East.  These Tigers traded John Smoltz to get Doyle Alexander in a quest for a pennant; that may not have worked in real life but it’s paid off in this tournament, as the innings-limited Alexander has been outstanding in relief; MVP Alan Trammell has done little but his teammates have taken up the slack. Teams defeated to reach round seven:  1950 Indians (172) 6-4; 1990 Orioles (1436) 4-2;  1950 Senators (2205) 5-4;  2008 Padres (1948) 5-2;  2020 White Sox (1342) 1-0; 1992 Cubs (1424) 8-4. Key performers:  Darrell Evans 3 HR 6 RBI, Lou Whitaker 2 HR 6 RBI, Chet Lemon 2 HR 5 RBI, Kirk Gibson 2 HR 5 RBI, Doyle Alexander 5 IP, 0 HA, 1–0, 1 SV, 0.00, Mike Henneman 3 IP, 0 HA, 0.00, 3 SV.

1999 A's:  ELO ranking 1068, actual record 87-75.   The pre-Moneyball A’s got their money’s worth out of some of the less heralded members of their lineup, and their rotation seemed to get stronger as they went deeper in the tournament.  Teams defeated to reach round seven:  1994 Rangers (1559) 6-4; 2011 Indians (1525) 9-5; 1994 Indians (442) 4-1;  2016 Red Sox (162) 5-1;  1959 Red Sox (1198) 10-1; 1991 Reds (1139) 6-2.  Key performers:  Matt Stairs 8 RBI, John Jaha 3 HR 6 RBI, Randy Velarde 6 RBI, Jason Isringhausen 3.3 IP, 4 HA, 0.00, 1-0, 1 save.

2023 Padres:  ELO ranking 544, actual record 82-80.  With an ELO ranking much more impressive than their record would suggest and a Pythagorean projection 10 games better than their actual performance, the presence of these Padres in the sectionals provides further support that they seriously underperformed in real life.  The team had the benefit of an easy path in the regionals, but then dominated tough opponents in the super-regional to prove their mettle.  Teams defeated to reach round seven: 1992 Orioles (1086) 3-1; 2022 Cubs (1829) 3-0; 1987 Orioles (1965) 11-8 (12); 2015 Mets (727) 6-2;  2006 Yankees (227) 12-1;  1997 Cardinals (1350) 5-2.  Key performers:  Gary Sanchez 4 HR 8 RBI, Juan Soto 2 HR 8 RBI, Fernando Tatis Jr. 1 HR 6 RBI, Blake Snell 18 IP 13 HA 1.00, 2-0; Michael Wacha 13 IP 5 HA 0.69, 2-0.

1999 Braves:  ELO ranking 72, actual record 103-59, NL pennant winners.  The famous starting rotation tossed a couple of shutouts in the first six rounds, but it was mostly an underrated offense that enabled these Braves to survive a raft of injuries to move on.  Teams defeated to reach round seven:  2015 Nationals (755) 9-7; 2023 Blue Jays (565) 7-0; 2023 Braves (73) 8-4; 1988 Red Sox (608) 11-3; 2022 Twins (1671) 4-0; 2015 Diamondbacks (1590) 7-4.  Key performers:  Chipper Jones 4 HR 10 RBI, Brian Hunter 1 HR 6 RBI, Bret Boone 1 HR 6 RBI.  Injuries:  Brian Jordan (1 game remaining), Javy Lopez (4 games remaining), John Smoltz (out for tournament).  

2015 Yankees:  ELO ranking 748, actual record 87-75.  This was the best performing Yankee team of the past 50 years, despite so-so performances by key sluggers like ARod and Carlos Beltan; instead, they relied upon lesser-known players to provide key hits allowing them to reach this level.  Teams defeated to reach round seven:  2020 Marlins (1950) 5-4 (10); 1985 Red Sox (831) 9-5; 2019 Red Sox (735) 4-0;  2008 Twins (592) 9-8; 2006 White Sox (320) 5-3;  2008 Mariners (1922) 5-2.  Key performers:  Stephen Drew 2 HR 8 RBI, Didi Gregorius 1 HR 5 RBI, Brian McCann 1 HR 5 RBI.

2022 Dodgers:  ELO ranking 3, actual record 111-51, won NL West.  These Dodgers appeared to merit one of the best season-ending ELO ratings of all time, as they defeated a succession of very good teams to reach the sectionals, including a near duplicate of themselves in the super-regional final.  Injury replacements came up big for the team, with some still carried forward into sectional play.  Teams defeated to reach round seven:  2015 Pirates (364) 5-4 (10); 2022 Phillies (1044) 6-3; 2023 Mets  (1302) 9-0; 2022 Braves (48) 6-4 (14); 2009 Cardinals (788) 8-3; 2021 Dodgers (2) 6-3.  Key performers:  Trayce Thompson 3 HR 10 RBI, Edwin Rios 4 HR 6 RBI, W. Smith 2 HR 6 RBI.  Injuries:  Trea Turner (1 game remaining), Freddie Freeman (2 games remaining).

Round 7 action

For Friday Night Strat, we selected an epic battle between two World Series champions, the 2016 Cubs and the 1997 Marlins, and because both of them had defeated the Indians in those Series, Cleveland partisan ColavitoFan wanted nothing to do with either of them.  So it was brother Chuck retaking the helm of these Cubs, as he had done in eliminating my White Sox in the super-regional final, with Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10) on the mound.  For the Marlins it would be Tall Tactician in the manager’s seat, with two-teaming Rick Helling (5-9, 4.47) with the start, and the crowd was skeptical that Helling would be up to this level of competition.  But it’s Arrieta who falters, allowing a 2-run homer to Bobby Bonilla in the bottom of the 1st and then the perpetually paid Bonilla hits a solo shot in the 3rd to extend the Marlin lead to 3-0.  Some shoddy fielding by the Marlins gives the Cubs an unearned run in the top of the 4th, but Jeff Conine responds in the bottom of the inning with a two run blast that chases Arrieta.  The Cubs bullpen is only slightly better as Moises Alou raps a solo homer in the 5th and Charles Johnson adds an RBI triple in the 7th.  Meanwhile, the Cubs bats are enduring their own personal Helling, as they can’t muster another threat until Willson Contreras provides a flicker of hope with a bases-empty homer in the 9th, but Helling closes out a four-hitter as the Marlins win the battle of champions to advance with an easy 7-2 victory.

With all of his favorite Red Sox teams eliminated from the tournament, eldest son Michael decided he needed to try another team to guide to the final four, and he selected the pre-Moneyball 1999 A’s as his squad to champion, while I would manage the 1987 Tigers with Walt Terrell (17-10, 4.05) taking the mound against the A’s Gil Heredia (13-8, 4.31).  Michael didn’t trust the card of Heredia and he was already scoping out his bullpen options before the game began, but Heredia started off effective enough until Lou Whitaker hit a single in the 3rd to bring up Larry Herndon–who converted his HR 1-6 for a two-run shot and a Tigers lead.  The A’s responded in the bottom of the inning; with two out and runners on 1st and 2nd, Oakland slugger Jason Giambi smacks a double into the corner.  One run scores, but the runner on first is 1-8 John Jaha, and he’s huffing and puffing as he rumbles towards third.  His slow progress gives Michael several minutes to agonize about whether to send Jaha home as the potential tying run–or potential third out–with slugging Matt Stairs due up to bat.  Finally, Michael puts up the “hold” sign, Jaha remains at third, and Stairs pops out and the score remains 2-1 Tigers.  And that decision continues to haunt, as the game goes on and Mike Henneman and then trade acquisition wonder Doyle Alexander come in from the pen and lock down the A’s.  Although Doug Jones does the same to the Tigers, they’ve already got what they need, and the game ends that way, 2-1 Tigers as Detroit advances to the Sweet Sixteen while the last A’s team of the franchise heads back to the card catalogs.

I let brother Chuck reprise his management of the 1999 Braves even though he managed to get John Smoltz knocked out of the tournament on the final out of their previous game; this time he would try to keep Greg Maddux (19-9, 3.57) healthy against me and the 2023 Padres, with Seth Lugo (8-7, 3.57) on the mound.  Things immediately went south for the Padres in the bottom of the 1st as the Braves got two-run homers from both Ryan Klesko and Bret Boone for a quick and commanding 4-0 lead.  Things don’t get any better for San Diego as consecutive Padre errors in the 3rd lead to three more runs, and the fielding antics continue as the Padres finish the game with five errors–although they couldn’t blame a long solo home run by Gerald Williams on their shoddy fielding.  In the 5th an RBI triple from injury replacement Eddie Perez and a solo shot from Gerald Williams in the 6th round out the scoring as Maddux cruises to a 5-hit shutout and the Braves head to the Sweet Sixteen with an easy 9-0 win against a bumbling Padre squad.

The 2022 Dodgers had 111 wins and one of the best season-ending ELO ratings in history, while the less imposing 2015 Yankees were nonetheless one of the most successful entrants from that storied franchise.   The Dodgers would have their veteran Clayton Kershaw (12-3, 2.28) facing the Yanks’ Nathan Eovaldi (14-3, 4.20), and both pitchers start off in fine form, with no real threats coming until a walk and a grounder set up a Mark Teixeira RBI single in the top of the 4th for a 1-0 New York lead.  Mookie Betts responds in the 5th with a squib single that ties the game, and when the Dodgers get a man on in the 8th Andrew Miller relieves Eovaldi and squashes the rally.  Meanwhile Kershaw is on cruise control, and so after nine the game is still tied 1-1 with extra innings on order.  Kershaw and Miller close out their last innings in the 10th, so the Dodgers trot out Evan Phillips and his 1.14 ERA, but things don’t go according to plan as after two straight singles, Teixeira gets hold of one for a 3-run blast and Dodger Stadium is deathly quiet.  With a three run lead, Justin Wilson gets the assignment to close things out, but an RBI double by Max Muncy puts the tying run at the plate and the crowd is coming back to life.  But not for long, as Wilson wraps up the 4-2 11 inning win and sends the Yankees on to round eight, cementing their place as the top performer in this project of all teams in Yankee history.

The survivors:  round eight

The world champion 1997 Marlins faced a persistent round eight opponent in the 1987 Tigers, a team that fell short in the ALCS but had the majors’ best record that season.  The matchup would test the tail end of the respective rotations, with veteran Al Leiter (11-9, 4.34) on the hill for the Marlins while swingman Eric King (6-9, 4.89) would try to avoid his gopher ball tendencies for Detroit.  Sure enough, in the top of the 1st Moises Alou rolls King’s solid 5-10 home run result for a solo shot, while in the 2nd a 4-9 HR split is missed and the runner is harmlessly stranded at second.  Meanwhile, Leiter is looking good, at least until the bottom of the 4th when Matt Nokes swats a two-run homer and it’s 2-1 Tigers with nobody out.  Leiter then records a couple of outs but struggles and loads the bases for Lou Whitaker, who promptly deposits the ball in the seats for a grand slam and the lit up Leiter heads to the showers without completing four innings. Livan Hernandez comes in and calms things down for a while, but in the bottom of the 7th he is rocked for a couple of extra base hits and by the time Jay Powell is able to come in and douse the flames, the Tigers lead 9-1 and things are looking pretty hopeless for Florida.  However, Gary Sheffield finds that complete homer on King for another solo shot in the 8th, and then a succession of hits in the 9th push across three more and the Marlins are nervously hoping that King can wrap things up without depleting an already tired bullpen.  Another two baserunners means that the Marlins are a home run away from making it a one-run game, but King gamely gets the final out and the Tigers move on to the sectional finals with a workmanlike 9-5 win. 

Brother Chuck had managed to kill off John Smoltz for the rest of the tournament in the previous game of the 1999 Braves, so for the safety of their pitching staff he decided to opt for the 2015 Yankees with ARod in his final phase, leaving Tall Tactician to manage the Braves on Friday Night Strat.  As a round 8 game, the teams were at the bottom of their rotations, but befitting teams advancing this far in the tournament both starters were solid, with Tom Glavine (14-11, 4.12) for the Braves and Michael Pineda (12-10, 4.37) on the mound for the Yankees.  And the pitchers dominate early, with nothing crossing the plate until Brian Hunter finds and converts his HR split for a solo shot in the top of the 3rd and a 1-0 Braves lead.  Sensing runs are going to be difficult to come by, TT goes early to his bullpen, with Rudy Seanez entering in the 6th and John Rocker taking over in the 8th.  Chuck responds with reliever Delin Betances, but he gets into trouble with Andruw Jones swatting a 2-out double in the 9th to put two runners in scoring position.  Although Betances doesn’t have a hit on his card, he has a fair number of walks, and the Yanks hit two of those in a row and Betances walks in the second run of the game.  But even that run proves unnecessary, as the Yankees can’t do a thing against the Braves pen who close out a 3-hit shutout and the Braves march on to the Elite Eight of the project with the 2-0 win.

Sectional finals

After getting John Smoltz permanently injured on the last out of the game earlier in the tournament, brother Chuck would see what he could do to the 1999 Braves with the top of their rotation on the hill in the form of Kevin Millwood (18-7, 2.68).  Meanwhile, I would guide the 1987 Tigers as I had through eight consecutive victories previously, although Chet Lemon was still nursing an injury suffered in the prior game; Frank Tanana (15-10, 3.91) was the best the Tigers had to offer despite some gopher ball issues.   But it’s Millwood who allows the first homer of the game, a solo shot by MVP Alan Trammell in the 1st, although an RBI double from Chipper Jones in the bottom of the inning quickly ties the game.  Both starters recover quickly, but the solid 4-10 home run result on Tanana is discovered by Brian Hunter in the 5th, and then Andruw Jones comes up with the same roll consecutively for back-to-back blasts and a 4-1 Atlanta lead.  In the 6th a solo shot from Matt Nokes narrows the gap to two, but Andruw drives in another in the 7th with a single that chases Tanana for Doyle Alexander-the reason these Braves have John Smoltz.  Alexander does his job but it’s too late as Millwood closes out a 4-hitter, with two of those being solo homers, and the Braves head to the Final Four with a 5-2 victory, their ninth in a row.

Interesting card(s) of Sectional IV:  The sectional final between the 1999 Braves and the 1987 Tigers involved a crossing of the paths of two pitchers fated to be forever linked in baseball history.  In the heat of their ‘87 pennant race, the Tigers desperately needed an addition to their rotation, and they particularly coveted veteran Braves starter Doyle Alexander; they finally acquired him by trading a 22nd-round draft pick with a 5-10 record on the Tigers Double-A team in Glen Falls, one John Smoltz.  Alexander led the Tigers to a torrid finish and the best record in baseball, but they were upset by the Twins in the ALCS to fall just short of the target.  Smoltz, of course, didn’t do too bad for himself, becoming a Hall of Famer who is the only pitcher to record over 200 wins and 150 saves.  Each faced challenges in this project.  By tournament rules, Alexander was ineligible to serve in the rotation as he was carded with less than 100 innings, and had to be used exclusively in relief; he did make multiple appearances, including an outing in the sectional final that was effective but too late to matter.  For his part, Smoltz managed to get knocked out of the tournament with an injury on the final roll of the Braves’ super-regional final.  Ironically enough, subbing for an injured starter would have been the one loophole that could have gotten a start for Alexander, but of course he wasn’t around to replace the player he’d been traded for.