REGIONAL #249:  After a careful cross-checking of tournament entries, I had discovered that I’d overlooked a few earlier teams that were pretty good, and one of them, the 1955 Giants, looked like a contender to capture this regional, as they had put together a season for the ages in the preceding season.  Still, I thought that they would face a serious obstacle in the first round in the 2022 Yankees, and other teams that I thought might be in the hunt were the 1986 Pirates and teams from the past two seasons representing the Indians, Red Sox, and a modern Giants squad.  I was pretty confident that the winner of the first “play-in” game of the tournament wouldn’t get very far; ultimately, I went with those ‘55 Giants to win, besting the ‘86 Pirates in the finals.  The ELO ratings indicated that the 2022 Yankees were by far the best team in the bracket, although they would face the #2 seeded ‘55 Giants in round one, and those ratings predicted that the Yanks would defeat the other Giants team in the finals, with most other teams in the group looking to be pretty bad.

First round action

Play-in game:  In the single elimination format, I often run across matchups where I hate that one team has to lose and be eliminated; however, in these play-in games needed to round out the tournament evenly, it’s hard to believe that one of these teams actually has to win.  This one matches two terrible teams from last season, the 2023 A’s and the 2023 Rockies, and the best that can be said is that at least the game won’t be played in Oakland, meaning that there might be more than 10 spectators in attendance.  The A’s lost 112 games and their best starter, JP Sears (5-14, 4.54), must have come from the clearance section of the catalog;  the Rockies lost 103 games and although their lineup looked quite a bit better than the A’s, led by Rookie of the Year vote-getter Nolan Jones, their pitching staff was even worse and Kyle Freeland (6-14, 5.03) topped one of the worst rotations I’ve run across in recent memory.  The fireworks begin in the top of the 1st when Zack Gelof converts Freeman’s HR split, and that is followed by a Brent Rooker triple and a Shea Langeliers single, all off Freeland’s card and the A’s quickly lead 2-0.  That doesn’t last long as Ryan McMahon hits Sears’ solid HR result for a 2-run shot and a tie game, and both squads are counting the outs until they can try out their bullpens.  A 2-run single by Ryan Noda, at least off his own card, puts the A’s back on top in the 2nd, but Brenton Doyle finds the solid HR department at Sears for a 2-run blast and again it’s tied.  Somehow both pitchers each manage two scoreless innings, but in the bottom of the 5th Jones converts Sears’ HR split to lead off the inning and having allowed the requisite five runs, the A’s move immediately to reliever Mason Miller, who ends the inning without further damage but the Rockies lead 5-4 after five.  Armed with a lead, the Rockies pull the terrible Freeland to begin the 6th and hope Brent Suter can hang on; he does, so in the 8th Colorado moves to the closest thing they can find to a closer, Justin Lawrence,   Lawrence does a solid job with a perfect 9th inning to lock down the save in the Rockies’ 5-4 that earns them a seat at the table in the regional proper–but they probably shouldn’t get too comfortable.

This first-round matchup featured two contemporary mediocrities that weren’t bad enough to require a play-in game, but probably not good enough to go very far in this project.  The 2022 Red Sox went 78-84 but did have MVP support for SS Xander Bogaerts and 3B Rafael Devers, and Michael Wacha (11-2, 3.32) had a good card if you could ignore some gopher ball issues.  The 2023 Indians were called the Guardians by this time, although doing so here would mess up my search functions and besides, it only says “Cleveland” on the cards so I can call them the Spiders or the Naps if I want to.  However, I can’t call them very good, as they went 76-86 without much offense besides Jose Ramirez, 10th in the MVP voting, and Josh Naylor, who received one such vote.  Even so, Tanner Bibee (10-4, 2.96) was a strong option at the top of the rotation so there was some chance of a tight pitcher’s duel here.  Disaster strikes Cleveland as Naylor is lost for the regional to injury in the bottom of the 3rd inning, weakening an already limited offense, The Red Sox load the bases in the top of the 5th but injury replacement 1B-3 David Fry turns a DP that the 2 that he replaced would have dropped and the game remains a scoreless tie after five.  Boston again loads the bases in the 7th, but Bibee records a clutch strikeout and then Wacha holds and the game enters the 8th with no score.  The injury bug hits the Red Sox in the 8th as RF Rob Refsnyder is knocked out of the game at an already thin position thanks to a midseason trade, but that seems to wake up their offense as Devers and JD Martinez then hit back to back 2-out doubles for a 1-0 lead.  Despite Wacha’s longball issues, he’s tossing a shutout and the Red Sox opt to stick with their ace, but he runs into some trouble in the 9th as PH Josh Bell singles and then defensive replacement 1B-3 Triston Casas drops a grounder for the 4th Boston error of the game.  But Cleveland is out of credible pinch hitters by now, and Wacha retires weak hitting Miles Straw for the final out and the Red Sox move on with the 1-0 win with the 4-hit shutout.  

My vague memory of the Pirates of the 1980s was that they were pretty good, but the 1986 Pirates proved that my memory is going as they lost 98 games with a talented pair of youngsters named Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla having unimpressive years, although Rick Rhoden (15-12, 2.84) was a good first round starter that finished 5th in the Cy Young votes.  The 2022 Giants went an even 81-81 but were the #3 seed by ELO ratings in this bracket, but they seemed to have a lot in common with the Pirates with limited offense but a strong top starter in Carlos Rodon (14-8, 2.88), the 6th place Cy Young finisher.  Things start slow, but a dropped popup by SF C- 3 Joey Bart opens the door for a 2-run single by Pirates DH Mike Diaz, but a chance for a rally in the bottom of the inning is cut short as 1-12+2 Joc Pederson is cut down at the plate for the third out.  Bart does lead off the bottom of the 5th with a solo homer that might keep SF from taking his name off the transit system, but from there on out Rhoden is untouchable, finishing out a 5-hitter as the Pirates take the 2-1 pitcher’s duel to advance to the semifinals.

It seems to happen with annoying regularity that the two best teams in the regional have to play each other in the first round, and so it goes in this bracket with the 2022 Yankees facing cross-town and cross-era rivals 1955 Giants for what should be a clear path to the regional crown.  The Yanks were the top seed with a very strong ELO ranking, winning 99 games and the AL East only to get swept in the ALCS; they famously had MVP Aaron Judge break the AL home run record, and Nestor Cortes (12-4, 2.44) finished 8th for the Cy Young.  The Giants dropped off quite a bit a year after their legendary 1954 team, going 80-74, with Willie Mays leading the NL in homers while finishing 4th for MVP, while Johnny Antonelli (14-16, 3.33) would have benefited from having more weapons like Mays in the lineup.  In the top of the 3rd, Yankees DH deluxe Matt Carpenter crushes one deep into the Polo Grounds for a 3-run homer, although Willie Mays lofts a sac fly in the bottom of the inning to narrow the gap to 3-1 Yanks after three.  The worst nightmares of the Yanks come to life when Judge is injured in the top of the 7th, although he could return for the regional final should the team last that long.  The Giants immediately set out to keep that from happening, as a single and an Al Dark double begin the bottom of the inning to put the tying run in scoring position with nobody out; after a visit to the mound, the Yanks decide to stick with Cortes, but Don Mueller lofts a fly to make it a one-run game.  However, with two out in the top of the 8th Josh Donaldson smacks a 2-run homer off Antonelli’s split, and the Giants summon Windy McCall sensing that the horse has left the barn.  MCall does his best to burn the barn down, allowing three straight hits, the last an RBI single from Andrew Benintendi but 1-15+2 Isiah Kiner-Falefa is cut down for the third out.  The assault on McCall continues in the 9th as defensive replacement DJ LeMahieu singles in a run, and Cortes sets down the Giants in order to close out the 7-2 win, earning a trip to the semifinals but without their MVP.

The 2023 Rockies survived their play-in game, but their remaining starters were terrible, with Austin Gomber (9-9, 5.50) the best option, and they had already put some wear on the few decent arms in their bullpen.  The good news was that the opposition, the 2023 Cardinals, were also pretty bad, losing 91 games with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolen Arenado coming back to earth after a big season the previous year; still, Jordan Montgomery (6-9, 3.42) was more than two runs better than Gomber in the ERA department.  Tommy Edman breaks the ice in the top of the 3rd by finding Gomber’s solid 5-9 homer for a two-run blast, and later in the inning a two-out error by 3b-1 Ryan McMahon opens the door for a 2-run shot by Nolan Gorman for a 4-0 Cardinal lead.  In the 6th, it’s Goldschmidt’s turn to roll the 5-9 for a 2-run homer and Gomber is a goner, with Brent Suter coming in to yield three straight singles and another run before he can get the third out.  The Rockies blow a chance to get on the board in the 8th when  1-12+2 Brendan Rodgers is nailed for the third out at the plate, but backup 1B Mike Moustakas connects for a 2-run homer in the 9th to provide a flicker of hope, but Montgomery quickly extinguishes it and the Cardinals move on with an easy 7-2 win.

The survivors

The top seeded 2022 Yankees will have Luis Severino (7-3, 3.18) uninjured and ready to go for their semifinal game, but not their MVP Aaron Judge who was still recovering from a first round injury.  They faced their contemporary rivals, the 2022 Red Sox, who finished 21 games behind the Yankees and also had a key offensive weapon, DH Rob Refsnyder, out with an injury, while Rich Hill (8-7, 4.27) was on the hill.  Severino is bailed out in the top of the 2nd when his RF-4 Giancarlo Stanton makes a spectacular catch with the bases loaded to crush a rally, but Severino’s luck runs out in the 4th when Alex Verdugo knocks a 2-run double off the pitcher’s card for a Red Sox lead.  In the 5th, it’s Trevor Story’s turn for a 2-run double for Boston, and that’s followed by Verdugo converting Severino’s HR 1-2/flyB split for a two run shot, so the Yankees summon Ron Marinaccio from the pen to get the final out but it’s now 6-0 Boston.  In the bottom of the inning, a two out two run homer by Andrew Benintendi narrows the gap somewhat, but in the 7th two RBIB singles by Eric Hosmer and Reese McGuire and a sac fly by Enrique Hernandez and the rout is on.  From there, it’s all down Hill and the Red Sox lay a whipping on their favored rivals with a 9-2 win to earn a trip to the regional finals.

The ELO ratings had this semifinal as a very even matchup between two pretty bad teams:  the 1986 Pirates and Bob Walk (7-8, 3.75) against the 2023 Cardinals with Steven Matz (4-7, 3.86).  Nolan Arenado finds and converts Walk’s HR split for a solo shot in the bottom of the 1st and then Tyler O’Neill goes back to back courtesy of his own homer result and it’s 2-0 Cards.  They get another run in the 3rd on a Willson Contreras fielder’s choice,  The Pirates get  on the board in the 6th with an RBI single from Barry Bonds, but the Cards start the bottom of the inning with a walk and a sharp single and Walk walks to the dugout and Don Robinson comes in to walk the bases loaded.  However, he then gets a clutch strikeout and a DP to escape the inning and the Pirates hang on, but the Cards pound Robinson in the 7th with an RBI single from Tommy Edman and a 2-run double from Arenado makes the lead look insurmountable, with Matz in control, and the Cards starter makes a nice defensive play on a grounder from PH Junior Ortiz to close out the 6-1 Cardinal win that sends them to the finals. 

A very modern final matches the #4 seeded 2022 Red Sox against the #7 seed, the 2023 Cardinals, with neither team really expected to get this far.  It was good news for the Red Sox as they would be getting their RF, Rob Refsnyder and his .881 OPS, back from injury and they had a fully rested pen ready to go in support of gopherball-prone Nathan Eovaldi (6-3, 3.87).  Even so, the Cards were also at full strength, although Miles Mikolas (9-13, 4.78) looked rather hittable himself.  The Red Sox move ahead in the top of the 4th when Trevor Story finds and converts Mikolas’s HR split, and when Story doubles in the 6th the Cards decide to go to the pen for Ryan Helsley, but Alex Verdugo singles and Boston move ahead 2-0.  In the bottom of the 7th St. Louis starts a two-out rally with two consecutive singles, and even though Eovaldi is tossing a shutout the Red Sox don’t trust the multiple homer results on his card, so John Schreiber comes in and records the third out.  However, in the bottom of the 8th Jordan Walker leads off by wrapping one around the foul pole to make it a one-run game; that’s followed by a single and a double that sets up a 2-run single by Nolan Arenado and suddenly the Cards are in front.  The Cards stick with Helsley to finish things out even though it will burn him for much of any super-regional that might be played, but they need to get there first and he does the job, sending the lightly-regarded Cards to the regional crown and earning the 3-2 comeback win.  It’s the 15th regional win for the franchise, who earned this one largely due to a pitching staff that held opponents to a total of five runs across the three games of the bracket. 

Interesting card of Regional #249:  When your teammate sets a single season league record for homers, you might think it would be difficult to lead the team in slugging percentage, but Matt Carpenter wasn’t holding anybody’s beer.   He spent only one season with the Yankees at age 36, but he made the most of it, posting a HR% of 9.7% that was substantially better than Aaron Judge’s record setting production at 8.9%.  That prorates out to a 68-homer season when based upon the number of plate appearances that Judge had.  Carpenter was a late bloomer with the Cardinals, not really seeing significant playing time until he was a 26-year old rookie, but he quickly demonstrated that he was a valuable and versatile infielder, leading the NL in doubles twice and also good at getting on base, leading the league in walks as well.  When he turned 30, he began to demonstrate formidable power, with 36 homers in 2018 getting him significant MVP support.  However, with two consecutive seasons below the Mendoza line in 2020 and 2021, the Cards let him go, but early in the 2022 season an injury-racked Yankee team signed him out of the minors.  That proved to be a wise move, as he immediately went 8 for 24, with six of his first seven hits being home runs.  The power surge continued, but as evident from his 2-9 roll, he couldn’t escape the injury plague in the Bronx; on August 8th, he fouled a ball off his foot and it was broken, and he did not return during the regular season.  Now age 38, he has returned to the Cards and although not the player he once was, it looks like he may bow out from the franchise more gracefully than he was able to following the pandemic.