REGIONAL #249:  After a careful cross-checking of tournament entries, I had discovered that I’d overlooked a few earlier teams that were pretty good, and one of them, the 1955 Giants, looked like a contender to capture this regional, as they had put together a season for the ages in the preceding season.  Still, I thought that they would face a serious obstacle in the first round in the 2022 Yankees, and other teams that I thought might be in the hunt were the 1986 Pirates and teams from the past two seasons representing the Indians, Red Sox, and a modern Giants squad.  I was pretty confident that the winner of the first “play-in” game of the tournament wouldn’t get very far; ultimately, I went with those ‘55 Giants to win, besting the ‘86 Pirates in the finals.  The ELO ratings indicated that the 2022 Yankees were by far the best team in the bracket, although they would face the #2 seeded ‘55 Giants in round one, and those ratings predicted that the Yanks would defeat the other Giants team in the finals, with most other teams in the group looking to be pretty bad.

First round action

Play-in game:  In the single elimination format, I often run across matchups where I hate that one team has to lose and be eliminated; however, in these play-in games needed to round out the tournament evenly, it’s hard to believe that one of these teams actually has to win.  This one matches two terrible teams from last season, the 2023 A’s and the 2023 Rockies, and the best that can be said is that at least the game won’t be played in Oakland, meaning that there might be more than 10 spectators in attendance.  The A’s lost 112 games and their best starter, JP Sears (5-14, 4.54), must have come from the clearance section of the catalog;  the Rockies lost 103 games and although their lineup looked quite a bit better than the A’s, led by Rookie of the Year vote-getter Nolan Jones, their pitching staff was even worse and Kyle Freeland (6-14, 5.03) topped one of the worst rotations I’ve run across in recent memory.  The fireworks begin in the top of the 1st when Zack Gelof converts Freeman’s HR split, and that is followed by a Brent Rooker triple and a Shea Langeliers single, all off Freeland’s card and the A’s quickly lead 2-0.  That doesn’t last long as Ryan McMahon hits Sears’ solid HR result for a 2-run shot and a tie game, and both squads are counting the outs until they can try out their bullpens.  A 2-run single by Ryan Noda, at least off his own card, puts the A’s back on top in the 2nd, but Brenton Doyle finds the solid HR department at Sears for a 2-run blast and again it’s tied.  Somehow both pitchers each manage two scoreless innings, but in the bottom of the 5th Jones converts Sears’ HR split to lead off the inning and having allowed the requisite five runs, the A’s move immediately to reliever Mason Miller, who ends the inning without further damage but the Rockies lead 5-4 after five.  Armed with a lead, the Rockies pull the terrible Freeland to begin the 6th and hope Brent Suter can hang on; he does, so in the 8th Colorado moves to the closest thing they can find to a closer, Justin Lawrence,   Lawrence does a solid job with a perfect 9th inning to lock down the save in the Rockies’ 5-4 that earns them a seat at the table in the regional proper–but they probably shouldn’t get too comfortable.

This first-round matchup featured two contemporary mediocrities that weren’t bad enough to require a play-in game, but probably not good enough to go very far in this project.  The 2022 Red Sox went 78-84 but did have MVP support for SS Xander Bogaerts and 3B Rafael Devers, and Michael Wacha (11-2, 3.32) had a good card if you could ignore some gopher ball issues.  The 2023 Indians were called the Guardians by this time, although doing so here would mess up my search functions and besides, it only says “Cleveland” on the cards so I can call them the Spiders or the Naps if I want to.  However, I can’t call them very good, as they went 76-86 without much offense besides Jose Ramirez, 10th in the MVP voting, and Josh Naylor, who received one such vote.  Even so, Tanner Bibee (10-4, 2.96) was a strong option at the top of the rotation so there was some chance of a tight pitcher’s duel here.  Disaster strikes Cleveland as Naylor is lost for the regional to injury in the bottom of the 3rd inning, weakening an already limited offense, The Red Sox load the bases in the top of the 5th but injury replacement 1B-3 David Fry turns a DP that the 2 that he replaced would have dropped and the game remains a scoreless tie after five.  Boston again loads the bases in the 7th, but Bibee records a clutch strikeout and then Wacha holds and the game enters the 8th with no score.  The injury bug hits the Red Sox in the 8th as RF Rob Refsnyder is knocked out of the game at an already thin position thanks to a midseason trade, but that seems to wake up their offense as Devers and JD Martinez then hit back to back 2-out doubles for a 1-0 lead.  Despite Wacha’s longball issues, he’s tossing a shutout and the Red Sox opt to stick with their ace, but he runs into some trouble in the 9th as PH Josh Bell singles and then defensive replacement 1B-3 Triston Casas drops a grounder for the 4th Boston error of the game.  But Cleveland is out of credible pinch hitters by now, and Wacha retires weak hitting Miles Straw for the final out and the Red Sox move on with the 1-0 win with the 4-hit shutout.  

My vague memory of the Pirates of the 1980s was that they were pretty good, but the 1986 Pirates proved that my memory is going as they lost 98 games with a talented pair of youngsters named Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla having unimpressive years, although Rick Rhoden (15-12, 2.84) was a good first round starter that finished 5th in the Cy Young votes.  The 2022 Giants went an even 81-81 but were the #3 seed by ELO ratings in this bracket, but they seemed to have a lot in common with the Pirates with limited offense but a strong top starter in Carlos Rodon (14-8, 2.88), the 6th place Cy Young finisher.  Things start slow, but a dropped popup by SF C- 3 Joey Bart opens the door for a 2-run single by Pirates DH Mike Diaz, but a chance for a rally in the bottom of the inning is cut short as 1-12+2 Joc Pederson is cut down at the plate for the third out.  Bart does lead off the bottom of the 5th with a solo homer that might keep SF from taking his name off the transit system, but from there on out Rhoden is untouchable, finishing out a 5-hitter as the Pirates take the 2-1 pitcher’s duel to advance to the semifinals.

It seems to happen with annoying regularity that the two best teams in the regional have to play each other in the first round, and so it goes in this bracket with the 2022 Yankees facing cross-town and cross-era rivals 1955 Giants for what should be a clear path to the regional crown.  The Yanks were the top seed with a very strong ELO ranking, winning 99 games and the AL East only to get swept in the ALCS; they famously had MVP Aaron Judge break the AL home run record, and Nestor Cortes (12-4, 2.44) finished 8th for the Cy Young.  The Giants dropped off quite a bit a year after their legendary 1954 team, going 80-74, with Willie Mays leading the NL in homers while finishing 4th for MVP, while Johnny Antonelli (14-16, 3.33) would have benefited from having more weapons like Mays in the lineup.  In the top of the 3rd, Yankees DH deluxe Matt Carpenter crushes one deep into the Polo Grounds for a 3-run homer, although Willie Mays lofts a sac fly in the bottom of the inning to narrow the gap to 3-1 Yanks after three.  The worst nightmares of the Yanks come to life when Judge is injured in the top of the 7th, although he could return for the regional final should the team last that long.  The Giants immediately set out to keep that from happening, as a single and an Al Dark double begin the bottom of the inning to put the tying run in scoring position with nobody out; after a visit to the mound, the Yanks decide to stick with Cortes, but Don Mueller lofts a fly to make it a one-run game.  However, with two out in the top of the 8th Josh Donaldson smacks a 2-run homer off Antonelli’s split, and the Giants summon Windy McCall sensing that the horse has left the barn.  MCall does his best to burn the barn down, allowing three straight hits, the last an RBI single from Andrew Benintendi but 1-15+2 Isiah Kiner-Falefa is cut down for the third out.  The assault on McCall continues in the 9th as defensive replacement DJ LeMahieu singles in a run, and Cortes sets down the Giants in order to close out the 7-2 win, earning a trip to the semifinals but without their MVP.

The 2023 Rockies survived their play-in game, but their remaining starters were terrible, with Austin Gomber (9-9, 5.50) the best option, and they had already put some wear on the few decent arms in their bullpen.  The good news was that the opposition, the 2023 Cardinals, were also pretty bad, losing 91 games with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolen Arenado coming back to earth after a big season the previous year; still, Jordan Montgomery (6-9, 3.42) was more than two runs better than Gomber in the ERA department.  Tommy Edman breaks the ice in the top of the 3rd by finding Gomber’s solid 5-9 homer for a two-run blast, and later in the inning a two-out error by 3b-1 Ryan McMahon opens the door for a 2-run shot by Nolan Gorman for a 4-0 Cardinal lead.  In the 6th, it’s Goldschmidt’s turn to roll the 5-9 for a 2-run homer and Gomber is a goner, with Brent Suter coming in to yield three straight singles and another run before he can get the third out.  The Rockies blow a chance to get on the board in the 8th when  1-12+2 Brendan Rodgers is nailed for the third out at the plate, but backup 1B Mike Moustakas connects for a 2-run homer in the 9th to provide a flicker of hope, but Montgomery quickly extinguishes it and the Cardinals move on with an easy 7-2 win.

The survivors

The top seeded 2022 Yankees will have Luis Severino (7-3, 3.18) uninjured and ready to go for their semifinal game, but not their MVP Aaron Judge who was still recovering from a first round injury.  They faced their contemporary rivals, the 2022 Red Sox, who finished 21 games behind the Yankees and also had a key offensive weapon, DH Rob Refsnyder, out with an injury, while Rich Hill (8-7, 4.27) was on the hill.  Severino is bailed out in the top of the 2nd when his RF-4 Giancarlo Stanton makes a spectacular catch with the bases loaded to crush a rally, but Severino’s luck runs out in the 4th when Alex Verdugo knocks a 2-run double off the pitcher’s card for a Red Sox lead.  In the 5th, it’s Trevor Story’s turn for a 2-run double for Boston, and that’s followed by Verdugo converting Severino’s HR 1-2/flyB split for a two run shot, so the Yankees summon Ron Marinaccio from the pen to get the final out but it’s now 6-0 Boston.  In the bottom of the inning, a two out two run homer by Andrew Benintendi narrows the gap somewhat, but in the 7th two RBIB singles by Eric Hosmer and Reese McGuire and a sac fly by Enrique Hernandez and the rout is on.  From there, it’s all down Hill and the Red Sox lay a whipping on their favored rivals with a 9-2 win to earn a trip to the regional finals.

The ELO ratings had this semifinal as a very even matchup between two pretty bad teams:  the 1986 Pirates and Bob Walk (7-8, 3.75) against the 2023 Cardinals with Steven Matz (4-7, 3.86).  Nolan Arenado finds and converts Walk’s HR split for a solo shot in the bottom of the 1st and then Tyler O’Neill goes back to back courtesy of his own homer result and it’s 2-0 Cards.  They get another run in the 3rd on a Willson Contreras fielder’s choice,  The Pirates get  on the board in the 6th with an RBI single from Barry Bonds, but the Cards start the bottom of the inning with a walk and a sharp single and Walk walks to the dugout and Don Robinson comes in to walk the bases loaded.  However, he then gets a clutch strikeout and a DP to escape the inning and the Pirates hang on, but the Cards pound Robinson in the 7th with an RBI single from Tommy Edman and a 2-run double from Arenado makes the lead look insurmountable, with Matz in control, and the Cards starter makes a nice defensive play on a grounder from PH Junior Ortiz to close out the 6-1 Cardinal win that sends them to the finals. 

A very modern final matches the #4 seeded 2022 Red Sox against the #7 seed, the 2023 Cardinals, with neither team really expected to get this far.  It was good news for the Red Sox as they would be getting their RF, Rob Refsnyder and his .881 OPS, back from injury and they had a fully rested pen ready to go in support of gopherball-prone Nathan Eovaldi (6-3, 3.87).  Even so, the Cards were also at full strength, although Miles Mikolas (9-13, 4.78) looked rather hittable himself.  The Red Sox move ahead in the top of the 4th when Trevor Story finds and converts Mikolas’s HR split, and when Story doubles in the 6th the Cards decide to go to the pen for Ryan Helsley, but Alex Verdugo singles and Boston move ahead 2-0.  In the bottom of the 7th St. Louis starts a two-out rally with two consecutive singles, and even though Eovaldi is tossing a shutout the Red Sox don’t trust the multiple homer results on his card, so John Schreiber comes in and records the third out.  However, in the bottom of the 8th Jordan Walker leads off by wrapping one around the foul pole to make it a one-run game; that’s followed by a single and a double that sets up a 2-run single by Nolan Arenado and suddenly the Cards are in front.  The Cards stick with Helsley to finish things out even though it will burn him for much of any super-regional that might be played, but they need to get there first and he does the job, sending the lightly-regarded Cards to the regional crown and earning the 3-2 comeback win.  It’s the 15th regional win for the franchise, who earned this one largely due to a pitching staff that held opponents to a total of five runs across the three games of the bracket. 

Interesting card of Regional #249:  When your teammate sets a single season league record for homers, you might think it would be difficult to lead the team in slugging percentage, but Matt Carpenter wasn’t holding anybody’s beer.   He spent only one season with the Yankees at age 36, but he made the most of it, posting a HR% of 9.7% that was substantially better than Aaron Judge’s record setting production at 8.9%.  That prorates out to a 68-homer season when based upon the number of plate appearances that Judge had.  Carpenter was a late bloomer with the Cardinals, not really seeing significant playing time until he was a 26-year old rookie, but he quickly demonstrated that he was a valuable and versatile infielder, leading the NL in doubles twice and also good at getting on base, leading the league in walks as well.  When he turned 30, he began to demonstrate formidable power, with 36 homers in 2018 getting him significant MVP support.  However, with two consecutive seasons below the Mendoza line in 2020 and 2021, the Cards let him go, but early in the 2022 season an injury-racked Yankee team signed him out of the minors.  That proved to be a wise move, as he immediately went 8 for 24, with six of his first seven hits being home runs.  The power surge continued, but as evident from his 2-9 roll, he couldn’t escape the injury plague in the Bronx; on August 8th, he fouled a ball off his foot and it was broken, and he did not return during the regular season.  Now age 38, he has returned to the Cards and although not the player he once was, it looks like he may bow out from the franchise more gracefully than he was able to following the pandemic. 

REGIONAL #248:  This bracket featured a very contemporary batch of teams as we get down to the final 50 or so entrants into the tournament.  The team that most captured my attention was 2023’s Astros team that had won two pennants in the preceding seasons and fell just short in the playoffs of winning another; however, their draw in the first round was the pandemic Yankees who I guessed could be a formidable obstacle.  Of the others, I took note of a Rockies team that had won its only pennant two seasons prior, and I seemed to remember last year’s Brewers making the postseason, but once again it would be those two squads facing off in round one, so I had the feeling that those two first round games would determine the matchup in the finals.   My guess was that the Astros would get past the Yanks and that the Rockies pitching would let them down against Milwaukee, and presuming that those two would survive the semifinals I picked Houston to go all the way, something that neither their 2021 nor 2022 pennant-winners could do.  The ELO rankings suggested that I overlooked a good 2009 Dodger team that was predicted to make the final, but like me those ratings had the Astros and the Yankees as the two best and predicted an Astros regional win.

First round action

The two worst teams in the regional, according to the ELO rankings, are matched in the first round as the 2023 Cubs meet the 2004 Reds.   The Cubs were a decent team, going 83-79, with Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson getting some MVP votes, the latter as part of an excellent all-”1” DP combo, and Justin Steele (16-5, 3.06) was 5th in the Cy Young ballots.  Meanwhile, the Reds were the bottom seed in the bracket with a 76-86 record, and although they had some offense with Adam Dunn’s 46 homers earning him a few MVP votes, their rotation was dismal with Paul Wilson (11-6, 4.36) the best of the bunch.  Ian Happ quickly located Wilson’s solid HR result for a solo shot in the top of the 1st, and a 2-base error by Reds 2B-3 D’Angelo Jimenez scores another to push the Cubs lead to 2-0.  Wilson settles in and pitched well, but when he yields a double to Cody Bellinger in the 8th he’s pulled in favor of Luke Hudson, who strands Bellinger at second to keep the game within reach.  But reach is all the Reds can do against Steele, who ends up with a 4-hit shutout while striking out 10 and the Cubs move on with a 2-0 win, collecting only five hits themselves.

While the previous first round game matched the two worst teams in the regional, this one featured the two top seeds in the 2023 Astros and the 2020 Yankees.   The Astros won 90 games to tie for 1st in the AL West, although they were eliminated in the ALCS by the team they tied with to be denied a pennant.  Kyle Tucker finished 5th for the MVP and Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman also received votes, while mid-season pickup Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22) would have merited Cy Young attention but split his record between the two leagues.  But equally imposing were the 33-27 pandemic Yankees, eliminated in the ALDS but having the league's highest batting average in DJ Lemahieu and the top HR hitter in Luke Voit, finishing 3rd and 9th respectively in the MVP voting.  Furthermore, their top IP mandated starter was Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.94) was 4th for the Cy Young, so this was a matchup of two potent offenses and two excellent pitchers.  The Yankees start the top of the 1st with a walk and a 2-run homer from Clint Frazier, , and they follow with three straight hits including an RBI double from Aaron Judge and before Verlander can settle down, his team trails 4-0.  Alex Bregman gets the Astros first hit of the game in the bottom of the 2nd, a solo homer that narrows the gap a bit, but Judge responds with a solo shot of his own in the 3rd and Verlander is warned that he’s on a short leash and it’s not Kate Upton at the other end.  However, an error by 2B-3 Jose Altuve is followed by a Gleyber Torres homer off Verlander’s split, and Hector Neris replaces Verlander end the inning but the score is now New York 7, Houston 1.  Altuve gets his run back in the bottom of the inning with a solo homer, but Alvarez misses Cole’s HR 1-9/flyB split that could have made things more interesting.  When the Yanks get a single and a walk in the 7th, the Astros try Bryan Abreu from the pen but Brett Gardner greets him with an RBI single and the Yanks extend their lead.  Cole proceeds smoothly until with two out in the bottom of the 9th, Yanier Diaz pokes a bases empty homer but that’s it for the Astros as the Yankees knock out the top seed and advance with a dominating 8-3 win.

The 2023 Brewers won 92 games and the NL Central, seemingly on the basis of a strong pitching staff fronted by Corbin Burnes (10-8, 3.39), who finished 8th for the Cy Young, and aided by a deep bullpen; however, their lineup didn’t boast many guys who were any good at getting on base.  The 2009 Rockies also won 92 games and also were quickly eliminated in the postseason, but they were built very differently, with lots of altitude fueled offense but a rotation that got bad quickly after Ubaldo Jimenez (15-12, 3.47) and a bullpen that looked like it had had too much Coors.  In the bottom of the 1st, Carlos Santana is back to his evil ways with a 2-out, 2-run double, but the Rockies utilize a Carlos of their own, Gonzalez, whose 2-out 2-run triple in the top of the 3rd ties the game.  Todd Helton then leads off the 4th with a home run to put Colorado ahead, but an error from SS-1 Tulowitzki and two walks load the bases with nobody out, and although 2B-2 Clint Barmes turns a DP a run scores and it’s knotted at three apiece after four.  The Brewers move ahead in the 5th courtesy of a 2-out 2-run moon shot by Tyrone Taylor, but when Gonzalez leads off the 8th by converting Burnes’ HR split, the Brewers summon closer Devin Williams and his 1.53 ERA to try to hang onto the one run lead.  A Willy Adames base hit in the bottom of the inning and the Rockies summon Rafael Betancourt to try to keep things close, and he prevents any damage so the game moves to the 9th with Williams needing three outs to close out the game for the Brewers.  He strikes out two in a row, but Dexter Fowler converts a SI* 1-11 to bring up Tulo as the go-ahead run; however, he lofts a lazy fly and the Brewers hang on and advance with the 5-4 win.  

The last game of the first round featured another two competitive squads to round out a strong regional.  The 2009 Dodgers won 95 games and the NL West, but were denied a pennant in the NLCS; Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp were both in top 10 MVP votegetters, and 21 year old Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79) was seeking to follow-up on his interesting card of the regional feature from the prior bracket.  The 2021 Cardinals won 90 games but exited the playoffs quickly as a wild card team, but they also had two top ten MVP candidates in Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill, and Adam Wainwright (17-7, 3.05) received some Cy Young votes although the rotation was not very deep behind him.  Yadier Molina records the first hit of the game for the Cards in the top of the 3rd, converting his HR 1-6/flyB for a St. Louis lead, while in the bottom of the inning Juan Pierre misses Wainright’s HR split and gets stranded at second so the Cards lead 1-0 after three. However, Manny Ramirez is being Manny to lead off the bottom of the 4th with a tape measure homer to tie things up, and in the 5th LA loads the bases for a 2-out 2-run single by Matt Kemp and a 3-1 Dodger lead.  The Cards manufacture a run in the 8th when Tommy Edman singles with two out, swipes second on C-1 Russell Martin, and scores on a Goldschmidt single, but when Casey Blake singles to lead off the bottom of the inning, the Cards bring in reliever Luis Garcia to try to keep it a one-run game.  Garcia loads the bases but it proves to be a good move when Pierre rolls the 5-5 that had been a homer on Wainright but is a whiff on Garcia, so the game moves to the top of the 9th with Kershaw trying to hold the one run lead.   And he does, finishing a 6-hitter as the Dodgers survive and advance with the 3-2 win.  

The survivors

The Zoom game of the week involved this semifinal game, with TT being intrigued by a 2020 Yankees pandemic team that had all sorts of offensive goodies, but given the innings limitations they had no choice in starting pitchers with JA Happ (2-2, 3.47) as their second man up in IP.  The 2023 Cubs weren’t Happless themselves, with Ian Happ in the lineup, and ColavitoFan liked the all “1” DP combo and pitching options that included Kyle Hendricks (6-8, 3.74).  Out of the gate, the game had the feel of a pitching duel, and aside from a couple of hits in the 2nd inning, there were no other hits in a scoreless tie after five innings.  Scrapping for runs, ColavitoFan even tries a steal of home with AA stealer Nico Hoerner but he trips long before he reaches the plate and is out by a mile.  However, a bit of offensive begins to emerge for the Yankees in the bottom of the 6th, as Hendricks encounters a rough patch and allows two runners on with nobody out.  CF comes out to the mound to confer with his starter and opts to leave him in against the imposing Luke Voit, given that the pitcher’s been masterful to this point.  Sure enough, Hendricks retires Voit harmlessly and CF breathes a sigh of relief that lasts until the next batter, as Aaron Judge crushes one for a three run homer and the piped-in crowd noise goes wild.  That puts the game in Happ’s hands, and he doesn’t allow another hit the rest of the way as he closes out a 3-hit shutout to propel the Yanks to the regional final.  

The #3 seeded 2009 Dodgers and the #4 seeded 2023 Brewers face off to determine who earned a trip to the regional final, and both squad could fielder solid starters, with Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.23) going for the Dodgers and Wade Miley (9-4, 3.14) on the mound for the Brewers.  Both pitchers sported the infamous 6-5 home run split, and Wolf’s is discovered first in the top of the 1st by William Contreras for a solo shot and a quick Milwaukee lead.  Matt Kemp rips an RBI single in the 2nd that ties the game, and from there both pitchers settle in so the scores remains 1-1 after five.  With two out in the 6th a Contreras single convince the Dodgers to utilize their strong pen, and so George Sherrill and his 1.70 ERA come in and quelch any possible rally.  In the bottom of the inning the Dodgers get a leadoff single, but the Brewers pen had seen some work in round one and they decided to stick with Miley, a decision that Manny Ramirez makes them regret with a long 2-run homer which convinces Milwaukee to use Devin Williams from the pen for the second straight game.  However, he’s not as sharp as he was in the first round, and two walks and an error by 3B-2 Brian Anderson set up a 2-run double by James Loney and the Dodgers lead 5-1.  The Dodgers preserve Sherrill and summon Hong-Chih Kuo to begin the 8th, and he does the job, although LA is hit with a blow in the bottom of the inning when SS Rafael Furcal goes out for the regional with an injury.   Still, Kuo holds in the 9th and the Dodgers head to the finals with the 5-1 win, but looking at a downgrade in their strong infield defense.  

The regional final is a renewal of an old rivalry, with the #2 seed 2020 Yankees against the #3 seed 2009 Dodgers for the bracket crown.  The Yanks were fortunate in that Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.56) was decent as the third highest IP starter on the staff, while Hiroki Kuroda (8-7, 3.76) had similar qualifications as the best option for LA.  Luke Voit misses his HR 1-15/flyB split in the 3rd and the game stays in a scoreless tie until Gleyber Torres knocks an RBI single in the 4th to put NY up 1-0.  It becomes 3-0 in the 5th when Aaron Judge rips a 2-out triple to drive in one, and Judge scores on a Gio Urshela single to extend the lead.  The Dodgers get one back in the bottom of the inning on an RBI single by injury replacement Juan Castro, and then they load the bases for 2B Orlando Hudson, who pops out and is injured for the tournament to complete the DL list for the LA DP combo.  With things not going their way, the Dodgers summon their winning pitcher from the semifinal, George Sherril, to begin the 6th, and he holds off the Yanks while the Dodgers rap two consecutive singles to lead off the bottom of the inining, and Tanaka gives way to Luis Cessa from the pen.  Cessa is brilliant, inducing a DP and whiffing Casey Blake to eradicate the threat.  However, Cessa is a disaster in the 7th, yielding an RBI triple to Russell Martin and a run-scoring single to Juan Pierre all off the pitcher’s card and the Yanks signal for closer Zack Britton to try to stop the bleeding.  However, an error by 1B-4 Luke Voit and a walk loads the bases for Blake, who draw a second consecutive walk and the Dodgers move into the lead.  With Sherrill now burnt, the Dodgers bring in closer Jonathan Broxton, who holds in the top of the 8th, although LA misses a chance to extend their lead when 1-13 Martin is nailed at the plate trying to score on a Pierre double.  That leaves it to Broxton to finish out the 9th with a one run edge, and although he walks PH Giancarlo Stanton to begin the inning, he recovers, whiffing Clint Frazier for the final out and the Dodgers clinch the regional crown with the 4-3 win, George Sherrill earning bracket MVP honors by recording the wins in both the semifinal and the final in relief, allowing one hit and no runs in three and a third innings in the two games.  

Interesting card(s) of Regional #248:  Over the course of the tournament, it hasn’t been uncommon to have the same player playing for both teams in a game, and this could have happened in this bracket if last year’s Brewers hadn’t faltered in the semifinals.  It’s also not uncommon in these pairings where one of the cards is better than the other, but not many are quite as different as this particular duo, particularly when they’re only a few seasons apart.  One of the cards represents the league leader in homers; the other has a “W” power rating against both LHP and RHP as expected given the zero homer total.  He was 29 years old in the pandemic 2020 season, but he underwent surgery just before the 2021 season began and he was never quite the same.  His 2023 card is not a “partial” card, either, as it represents his entire output for the season; he went to spring training with the Mets in 2024 but hit .118 in 41 spring appearances and was released.  It seems that he is currently on the roster of the Olmecas de Tabasco of the Mexican League, although I can’t seem to find any statistics to see if he’s been hot for the Tabascos.  

 

The light at the end of the tunnel?  After a careful inventory of progress on the tournament, I've discovered that I own 76 teams that still have yet to make an appearance.  The good news is that I had apparently missed some interesting teams from the 20th century, and I'll be spared from slogging entirely through the remaining brackets with teams from 2023 that I don't find very compelling.  On the other hand, that number doesn't quite come out even; 76 teams constitutes 8 regionals, plus a remainder of four teams.  It turns out that these 8 regionals will be #248 through #256...and those mathematically inclined among you might notice that 256 is an exponent of 2, which would result in a perfectly balanced bracket, where these 256 regional winners simply need to win 8 more games (for a total of 11 consecutive wins) to be crowned as the ultimate champion of Strat single elimination.  

Obviously the karmic masters of probability are sending a signal that entry to the tournament should be cut off when every team I currently own (i.e., current at the time that a game in the project is being played) has made an appearance, which was always my original intent probably dating back 40 years.  At my typical rate of progress, this should happen sometime in November and will thus be before any additional teams from 2024 or other seasons can be added to my collection.  Waiting until new cards are released in February 2025 and adding 30 new 2024 teams would basically mean four new regionals--but I would need another 252 regionals to once again achieve a balanced bracket (adding a 12th straight win).  Neither I nor the game company are likely to last that long, so I guess the 2024 White Sox won't get their chance for glory.  However, even drawing the line at cards printed before this November, there is one remaining fly in the ointment:  there are still four teams left over after the 256 regionals have been filled.

How to handle this?  Well, this whole shebang was largely inspired by NCAA March Madness, and since this project began in 1980 the NCAA developed a cheat on their iconic 64-team bracket through the "play-in games", and if it's good enough for the March Madness, it should be good enough for the Endless Single Elimination Tournament.  So, here is my plan.  First, I will determine the ELO ratings for all 76 remaining teams, who range from 1955 to 2023, and then select the teams with the 8 worst ELO ratings in that group as "play-in" squads.  Those eight teams will be randomly paired, with the winner of each pairing advancing to a regional in the main tournament, where they will be randomly seeded in the bracket as has been tournament tradition.  Only one of the "play-in" winners will be assigned to any given bracket, and since these are the odd teams out I'll assign them to the odd remaining brackets:  #249, #251, #253, and #255.  Note that this will be the first time that any formal "seeding" will have been done in this tournament, and the play-in teams certainly will face a substantial challenge with the additional burden on their starting rotation, but hey--if they don't like it, they should have done better in their regular season.

So, meet the play-in patsies and their ELO rankings, the worst eight of the 76 remaining teams from which four teams will somehow have to win and earn a regional spot.  If playing these play-in games with these dismal squads doesn't drive me away from Strat forever, nothing will.

2023 A's (2362)

2018 Padres (2195)

1999 Rays (2138)

2021 Diamondbacks (2296)

2008 Pirates (2133)

2022 Rockies (2177)

2023 Rockies (2331)

2023 Royals (2283)   

REGIONAL #247:  This bracket would see the final team from the 90s enter the tournament, although probably not a very good one; the main attraction I noted was the pennant-winning 2023 Diamondbacks, although they won as a wild card team and as such might be vulnerable.  However, many of the other teams looked pretty bad, with as an example last year’s White Sox working their way towards this season’s historical level of terribleness, and last year’s Angels giving Ohtani a reason to seek greener pastures.  As such, I figured the Dbacks to be able to handle the competition, guessing that perhaps those 90s Padres might be good enough to make the finals against a weak bottom of the bracket.  The ELO ratings confirmed that the Dbacks weren’t among the best teams in baseball despite making the Series, and that the Dodgers entry was really the only quality team in a bad group, predicted to best the Padres in the final.

First round action

The 2014 Dodgers were the top ranked squad in this bracket, winning 94 games and the NL West and, while the offense wasn’t bad with Adrian Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig and Dee Gordon all receiving MVP votes, their biggest asset won both the MVP and the Cy Young in one Clayton Kershaw (21-3, 1.77).   It wasn’t clear that they would need him against the 2018 Phillies, whose 80-82 record was better than was suggested by a terrible ELO rating, but Aaron Nola (17-6, 2.37) came in 3rd for the Cy Young and was a potential equalizer.  The Phils start out rough as C-3 Wilson Ramon drops a popup to lead off the game to put speedy Dee Gordon on, and Gordon swipes second and scores on a Hanley Ramirez double for a quick lead in the top of the 1st.  However, SS-4 Ramirez quickly returns the favor in the bottom of the inning as a Cesar Hernandez single goes under his glove and Hernandez scores when Ramirez then makes a 2-base error on a Rhys Hoskins grounder.  In the 5th, back to back RBI doubles from Juan Uribe and Andre Ethier give LA a 3-1 lead,  In the top of the 9th, the Dodgers lose LF Matt Kemp for the rest of the regional, but Kershaw hangs on to the lead in the bottom of the inning to close out a 5-hitter and the Dodgers move to the semis with the 3-1 victory.  

The 2023 Diamondbacks went 84-78, which was good enough to make the postseason as a wild card, where they got hot and blew through the playoffs to capture the NL pennant.  Corbin Carroll was Rookie of the Year and came in 5th for the NL MVP, while Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47) finished 3rd for the Cy Young award atop a very shallow rotation, bolstered by a strong pen and solid team defense.  They faced the 2023 Angels, who went 73-89 with their best hitter and their best pitcher both being Shohei Ohtani (10-5, 3.14) who earned the AL MVP for his efforts, although their only other real weapon in Mike Trout would be relegated to later inning duties due to injury-related AB limitations.  The game is still scoreless entering the 6th so Trout gets to come in with the game still on the line, but Gallen strikes him out, while Ohtani strikes out the side in the bottom of the inning and the scoreless tie continues into the 7th.  It quickly ends as Brandon Drury leads off the 7th by converting his HR split, and a few batters later CJ Cron swats an RBI double to chase Gallen and Kevin Ginkel comes in to retire the side, but the Angels lead 2-0 and Ohtani is cruising.  Carroll gets on in the bottom of the inning, but the AA stealer is caught stealing for the second time of the game, and from there Ohtani has it under control to finish out a 4-hit shutout, and the Angels defeat the pennant winners 2-0 to advance. 

The 2023 White Sox were warming up for an historically terrible 2024 season with a merely dreadful 101-loss season that was still bad enough to earn them the bottom seed in this largely dismal group of teams.   Luis Robert headed the offense, receiving some sympathy support for the MVP award, and Mike Clevinger (9-9, 3.77) was the best option in the rotation.   Nonetheless, they had a chance to advance because they drew the #7 seeded 2018 Marlins, who lost 98 games and didn’t help themselves by trading away their primary 1B at the end of the season; Jose Urena (9-12, 3.96) would get the starting assignment for Miami while also being on the Sox roster.  Efforts to give away tickets to this one proved unsuccessful as the locals would rather be eaten by sharks than watch these two teams play.  That meant that they missed the soon-to-be-traded Eloy Jimenez hit a three-run homer of Urena’s card in the top of the 1st for a quick lead for the Sox, and in the 2nd an RBI double from terrible free agent pickup Andrew Benintendi followed by a 2-run homer from Robert and Urena hits the beach as Drew Steckenrider gets his turn on the mound.  At that point, Tim Anderson rolls his injury but to the chagrin of Sox fans everywhere, he shakes it off and stays in the game. Yoan Moncada adds another RBI single in the 3rd, while in the 4th Anderson once again hits his injury and this time he’s out for the regional, giving the Sox a chance to play another terrible SS in Zach Remillard.  In the 7th, new Marlins pitcher Adam Conley is greeted with back to back homers by DH Jake Burger and Jimenez, his second blast of the game, and Clevenger coasts in finishing a 6-hit shutout as the Sox look like world beaters in dispatching the Marlins by a 9-0 margin.  

The last team of the 90s to enter the tournament, the 1991 Padres were the #2 seed in this rather weak regional with an 84-78 record with Tony Gwynn getting some MVP support and Greg Harris (9-5, 2.23) sporting a formidable card.  They drew the 2021 Tigers for the first round, with a 77-85 record and few bright spots, although Jeimer Candelario did lead the AL in doubles and Casey Mize (7-9, 3.71) was a respectable option on the mound.  Robbie Grossman leads off the top of the 1st by converting Harris’s HR split for a quick Detroit lead, but both pitchers then take control and it remains 1-0 Tigers after five.  At this point the Tigers attempt to shore up their weak defense with some replacements, while the Padres look at their bench in a vain attempt to find somebody who can hit.  Detroit only gets one more hit through the 8th inning, but when Harris walks two with two out, the Padres turn to Larry Andersen to try to keep them in striking distance and he ends the threat.  In the bottom of the inning, an error by 3B-2 Candelario and a squib single by Bip Roberts brings up Gwynn with the tying run in scoring position, and the Tigers make a trip to the mound but Mize insists on preserving his shutout.  Sure enough, Gwynn raps a comebacker to P-2 Mize, who converts the DP.  In the 9th, Andersen gets knocked for three singles, the last driving in a run for Harold Castro, and Mize takes a 2-0 lead into the bottom of the 9th.  However, Fred McGriff sends his first pitch 400+ feet into the stands and it’s a one run game, and Spencer Turnbull comes in to try to hold that lead.  He retires three straight and the Tigers hang on for the 2-1 upset and a trip to the semifinals.

The survivors

The 2014 Dodgers and the 2023 Angels have a freeway faceoff, having reached these semifinals on the basis of two pitchers who both won MVP awards.  However, those guys were now spent and the Dodgers clearly had the better second starter in Zack Greinke (17-6, 2.71), who was 7th in the Cy Young votes, against the Angels’ Reid Detmers (4-10, 4.48), although the Dodgers were still without the services of injured LF Matt Kemp.  The Dodgers get a 2 out RBI double from Adrian Gonzalez in the top of the 1st that could have scored two if AA stealer Dee Gordon hadn’t been caught stealing for the third time in the regional.  An RBI single in the bottom of the 2nd by Hunter Renfroe ties the game, but they lose SS Zach Neto to injury for the tournament to lead off the 3rd.  In the 6th, Yasiel Puig finds and converts Detmer’s HR split for a solo shot and a Dodger lead,   Greinke whiffs Mike Trout to start the bottom of the 8th, but a hard single by CJ Cron and the Dodgers summon closer Kenley Jansen and he induces a DP ball from Mike Moustakas to quickly end the inning.  However, 3B-2 Juan Uribe begins the bottom of the 9th with an error and the top of the order is up; Jansen gets two quick outs, the second a whiff of Ohtani, but then he delivers one down the pike to Brandon Drury, and he crushes it into the stands for a walk off two run homer and the Angels pull off the miracle 3-2 comeback to advance to the regional final.  

This semifinal goes from bad (the 2021 Tigers) to worse (the 2023 White Sox) to determine which of these poor excuses for baseball teams will advance to the regional final to face yet another bad team.  For the Tigers, Tyler Alexander (2-4, 3.81) looked to provide an advantage over Dylan Cease (7-9, 4.58) of the Sox, who would be without injured SS Tim Anderson which would actually help their terrible defense.  The Sox rode the longball to the semifinals and they display it again in the top of the 1st with a long solo shot from Luis Robert giving them the early lead.  In the 2nd, Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal both double on missed HR splits, and then injury replacement Zach Remillard hits Alexander’s solid 6-5 HR for a 2-run blast and the Sox push their lead to 4-0.  Victor Reyes wraps one around the foul pole in the bottom of the inning to cut the lead to 4-1, and then in the 3rd Jeimer Candelario smacks a 3-run blast and it’s all tied up.  Then, Derek Hill leads off the bottom of the 4th by converting Cease’s homer result and the Tigers move ahead, but a leadoff single off Alexander’s card in the 6th and the Tigers immediately head to the pen for Kyle Funkhouser, who quickly snuffs out the threat.  However, in the 7th two walks and a single under the glove of 2B-4 Willi Castro loads the bases for the Sox with nobody out, and with the infield in Remillard rolls the gbA++ for a 2-run single, and Andrew Benintendi adds a sac fly to put the Sox ahead again, 7-5.  But Niko Goodrum leads off the bottom of the inning by converting Cease’s HR 1-10 split and the Sox now look in their own bullpen, but see nothing but disaster.  Cease then walks the bases loaded and then as a P-2, drops a sure DP ball that would have ended the inning, and the game is tied with the bases still loaded.  The Sox can take no more and try Gregory Santos out of the pen, and he almost gets out of the jam but C-4 Yasmani Grandal lets a passed ball get by him and the Tigers now lead by a run.  They bring out Spencer Turnbull to pitch the 9th, trying to record his second straight save, and although he issues a walk, he strikes out Robert as the go-ahead run to end the game and the persistent Tigers earn a trip to the finals with the 8-7 win.

Two mediocrities face off in the regional finals, with the 2023 Angels having eliminated the top seed in the semifinals and the 2021 Tigers knocking off the #2 seed in the first round, and both produced comeback wins to get this far.  For the Angels, Griffin Canning (7-8, 4.32) had a pretty bad gopher ball problem, but not as bad as that of the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal (8-12, 4.34) so the wind could be blowing out in Comerica Park today.  The first blast comes in the bottom of the 1st as the Tigers Eric Haase converts his own HR 1-6 split and Detroit leads 2-0,  However, in the top of the 3rd Randall Grichuk counters with a three run homer of his own to put the Angels ahead, and a 2-out double in the 6th off Skubal’s card and the Tigers move to the wild Gregory Soto out of the pen who whiffs PH Mike Trout to do his job.  Although Canning is pitching well, the Angels bring in Jose Soriano to begin the 8th, and he makes it exciting in the 9th as Jonathan Schoop rolls his HR 1-7/flyB for the tying run, but the split is a 10 and Soriano earns the save and the Angels earn the regional crown with the 3-2 win, only the 6th for the franchise.  Surprisingly, it was neither MVP Ohtani or late inning sub Mike Trout who made the difference for the Angels; it was mainly their pitching, who allowed only four runs in the three games that allowed the rest of their lineup to poke out enough runs to squeak by.  

Interesting card of Regional #247:   There have been 11 pitchers who won both the Cy Young and the MVP award in the same season, with this card representing the most recent recipient of these twin accomplishments.  A few months before the 2014 season began, the 26-year old Kershaw signed what was the richest contract for a pitcher in baseball history at the time, a seven year extension for $215 million that seemed pretty risky given the inconsistency and injury-prone nature of most MLB starting pitching these days.  It worked out pretty well, as he immediately won his third Cy Young award (and his first MVP) and although he never won another, he finished in the top 10 in the Cy Young voting in five of those next seven seasons.  I guess I should say he hasn’t won another “so far”, because he’s still active, although he just went on the DL a few days ago with bone spurs after making only 7 starts for the Dodgers after missing most of the season before the All-Star break recovering from shoulder surgery.  It would be nice if he could recover and pitch in the postseason, as his performance in October has been pretty mixed, with a 14-14 record and a 4.49 ERA.  It would be good if he could make that a winning record if indeed this ends up being his final season.