REGIONAL #242:  Although seven of these eight teams were 21st century squads with whom I tend to be less familiar, this pull included a bunch of contestants that I suspected would be quite competitive.  The White Sox had two representatives, one of them from the season following their first Series win since the Dead Sox; there was also a pandemic year Astros team that had won the pennant the season before as well as the season following.  The Red Sox were represented by a team from two years following their long-awaited championship, and the Cardinals here had won three seasons previously.  Finally, the Mariners had an entry from the immediately prior season that I remembered as being in post-season contention as well, meaning that there were plenty of plausible competitors in this group.  Although I couldn’t remember exactly what prevented the Astros from completing their trifecta during the weird pandemic season, my guess was that a combination of quality players and low-usage wonders would propel them to a regional win, perhaps over the 2006 White Sox in the finals just to spite me while avenging getting swept by the 2005 Sox in the Series.   To complete a triple jinx, the ELO ratings picked those White Sox as the favorites, and also indicated that their first round opponent in the Mariners was the second-best team in the bracket.  Those ratings did agree that this was a strong bracket, with six of the eight teams in the top 1000 teams of all time, and although the ratings selected the same final matchup that I did, they predicted a different outcome, failing to account for my White Sox jinx in their statistical model.

First round action

Despite a mediocre 77-85 record, I thought the 2005 Diamondbacks were better than their terrible ELO rating indicated, particularly before the rotation had to move beyond Brandon Webb (14-12, 3.54); the heart of the lineup had some weapons including the over .1.000 OPS of DH Tony Clark.  I wasn’t certain why the 1999 White Sox had a better rating, as their record was slightly worse at 75-86 with a bad steroid-era rotation fronted by Mike Sirotka (11-3, 4.00), and a rather off year for Frank Thomas who hit only 15 homers in a full season of plate appearances.  Even so, back to back RBI singles from Thomas and Carlos Lee in the bottom of the 4th give the Sox a 2-0 edge that persists as both pitchers settle in.  Armed with a strong bullpen tandem, the Sox keep a close eye on Sirotka with the narrow margin, but they get some insurance in the bottom of the 6th when a 2-out Chris Singleton double is followed by another RBI single from the Big Hurt.  At that point the Dbacks move to Jose Valverde, the same reliever who blew a lead in the previous regional without recording an out, but he quickly bests that performance by retiring the side without further damage.  Sirotka holds onto the shutout until two are out in the 9th, when Royce Clayton rips an RBI triple into the corner, but he then whiffs PH Andy Green to wrap up a nifty 4-hitter and this Sox team moves to the semifinals hanging on for the 3-1 win.  

This was rated as an even matchup between two strong teams.  The 2020 Astros didn’t win the pennant in the pandemic year, although they did the season before and the season after; although in 2020 they finished at 29-31, the weird format permitted them to make the postseason and they made it to the ALCS before getting eliminated.  George Springer got some MVP votes and Framber Valdez (5-3, 3.57) did get one mention on a Cy Young ballot, but Jose Altuve hit an uncharacteristic .219 and Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel had mediocre showings.  Despite Houston’s sub-.500 record, somehow they had a better end-0f-year ELO rating than the 2006 Red Sox who went 86-76, and David Ortiz was busy trying to make everyone forget about the last regional’s MVP (Mo Vaughn) by leading the AL in homers with 54 and finishing 3rd for the MVP.  However, the rotation was scary, with Curt Schilling (15-7, 3.97) being their best despite allowing a lot of hits.  The Astros start fast out of the gate in the top of the 1st with a two-run Springer homer, but in the bottom of the 2nd Jason Varitek ties it with a two-run blast of his own.  A Bregman fielders choice scores Springer in the 3rd and the Astros move ahead once again, but Ortiz responds in the bottom of the inning by wrapping one around the foul pole for a solo shot and it’s tied up at 3-3.  The Red Sox squander a chance for a lead in the 4th when Mike Lowell (1-10) is nailed at the plate trying to score on an Alex Gonzalez double, but they do manage to move ahead in the 5th when Astros RF-3 Josh Reddick misplays a Kevin Youkilis single and allows Mark Loretta to score.   In the 7th Boston gets some insurance when 1-10+2 Ortiz lumbers home on a two-out double by Lowell, and Valdez is replaced by Andre Scrubb who ends the inning without further issues.  But Schilling is gutting it out, and he finishes out a 7-hit CG to lead Boston to the 5-3 win and a shot at their second straight regional crown.  

The ELO ratings show this as the marquee matchup of the regional, with the top two seeds facing off in round one.  The bracket favorite was the 2006 White Sox, who had swept the Series in the preceding season, but they had declined and despite 90 wins did not make the playoff; although there was still plenty of pop in the lineup with Jermaine Dye finishing 5th in the MVP voting with Paul Konerko and new pickup Jim Thome also receiving votes, their rotation had backtracked significantly, with Jose Contreras (13-9, 4.27) the best option.  The 2023 Mariners were the #2 seed with 88 wins, with Julio Rodriguez 4th in the MVP votes and JP Crawford and Cal Raleigh also getting votes; the difference was that the Mariners had a strong rotation with George Kirby (13-10, 3.35) getting the start.  Contreras walks two in the 3rd and then yields his first hit to Rodriguez, an RBI single for an early Seattle lead.  The Sox tie it in the bottom of the 4th with a two out rally consisting of three straight squib singles, the final one an RBI for AJ Pierzynski.  However, Rodriguez responds in the top of the 5th with a tape measure solo shot that restores the M’s lead., but in the bottom of the inning it’s Thome with a two-run blast and the Sox lead by a run after five.  In the 6th the Sox get runners on 1st and 3rd with one away, and the Mariners sense that they can’t afford to let the lead expand so Andres Munoz is summoned to put out the fire, and that proves to be a wise move as Munoz strikes out two straight to prevent any damage.  Manager Ozzie Guillen sends out reliever Mike MacDougal and his 1.55 ERA to begin the 8th to try to hang onto the slim margin, and he tosses a perfect top of the 8th, while in the bottom of the inning defensive replacement Rob Mackowiak raps an RBI double, which is followed with a 2-run single from Jermaine Dye and the Sox add considerable padding.   Speaking of padding, Ozzie then gives the “fat man” signal to the bullpen and it’s Bobby Jenks for the last three outs as the Sox move on with the 6-2 win in which they outhit Seattle by a 17-4 margin.  

Another good matchup for the last game of round one, featuring the 2021 Brewers and the 2016 Cardinals.  The Brewers won 95 games and the NL Central on the back of a strong pitching staff, with Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43) at the top of a remarkably strong rotation.  The Cardinals went 86-76 and had a lineup with weapons from top to bottom, although the rotation after Carlos Martinez (16-9, 3.04) was full of holes.  Both teams did have Kolton Wong at second base, allowing a test to see what two Wongs make, exactly.  Things go Wong for the Brewers in the top of the 2nd when their 2B-1 Wong makes the improbable error, setting up an RBI double from Randal Grichuk followed by a 2-run single courtesy of Matt Holliday; Stephen Piscotty adds another RBI single to continue the torching of Burnes and the Cards lead 4-0.  Eduardo Escobar leads off the bottom of the inning with a long home run to signal that the Brewers aren’t out of it yet, but Matt Adams drives in a run with a 2-out double after missing a HR 1-16 split and Matt Holliday leaves no doubt with a solid HR for two more runs.  In the 4th, .163 hitting Jackie Bradley Jr. pokes a two out single for the Brewers that scores one, but 1-13+2 Escobar is nailed at the plate trying to add another and it’s 7-2 Cards after four.  However, St. Louis loses Holliday, who already has four RBI, to injury in the 5th, but they begin the 6th with two straight hits and Burnes is toast, with Josh Hader coming in to relieve with no hits on his card.  It doesn’t matter, as Aledmys Diaz finds one on his own card that drives in two more St. Louis runs, Jedd Gyorko gyorks a solo shot, and the Cards reach double digits.  Grichuk adds another solo shot in the 7th,  The Brewers respond with three runs in the bottom of the inning, and although Martinez is struggling St. Louis is hoping he can hang on with the big lead and preserve the pen for later rounds.  In the 9th he’s roughed up for RBI singles by Avasail Garcia and Luis Urias, but he manages to close out the 11-7 win to send the Cards to the semifinals.  

The survivors

The 2006 Red Sox had won the Series two seasons earlier and would win another in the following year, and although this team had only the 5th best ELO rating in the bracket, it was still a strong rating that was appreciably better than that for the 1999 White Sox.  The Chisox were having to go deeper into a terrible rotation, and James Baldwin (12-13, 5.10) carried some land mines on his card, although Boston’s Tim Wakefield (7-11, 4.63) also had seen better years.  The second batter of the game, Maggio Ordonez, swats a solo shot that is followed by back to back doubles from Paul Konerko and Chris Singleton and it’s looking like the knuckler isn’t.  However, in the bottom of the 2nd Mike Lowell finds ye olde 6-5 solid homer on Baldwin and a few batters later Trot Nixon does the same for a two-run shot and the lead has changed it’s Sox.  In the 4th Jason Varitex misses Baldwin’s 6-6 HR split bur drives in a run with the resulting double, and Nixon knocks him with a single that chases Baldwin for Bobby Howry, who ends the inning.  Wakefield now seems to have the ball knuckling, and a three run homer by Kein Youkilis in the 7th breaks the game open, although Konerko leads off the 8th with a long ball that narrows the gap slightly.  That proves to be the last gasp for Chicago as Wakefield finishes out the 8-3 win in search of a second straight regional win for the franchise.

For the Zoom game of the week, I had the opportunity to try to overcome the Sox jinx with the top-seeded 2006 White Sox and the homer-prone Freddy Garcia (17-9, 4.53) against TT and the powerful 2016 Cardinals, who had demolished a Cy Young winner in round one and would send hit -laden Mike Leake (9-12, 4.69) to the mound.  The Friday Night Strat crowd was expecting some offensive fireworks with these two pitchers, but the game starts slowly, although the Sox do move to a 1-0 lead in the top of the 2nd courtesy of a Juan Uribe RBI single.  That lead holds up until the 4th, when Cards DH Brandon Moss finds that solid 6-5 homer on Garcia to tie the game, but Tadahito Iguchi converts his HR split in the 5th for a 2-run shot and the Sox move back in the lead.   Not trusting Leake, TT moves quickly to the pen in the 6th for Kevin Siegrist, who proves unhittable for two innings, while I take no chances with more Garcia gopher balls and tap Matt Thornton to pitch, and he is equally effective for the Sox.  Both squads use two of their best relievers in the 8th and both do their job, but in the top of the 9th TT calls upon Cards closer Seung Hwah Oh and his 1.92 ERA, to which I respond “Oh *****”.  But TT points to Oh’s 6-5 HR 1-2/flyB split and boldly predicts that I will hit it, which is rather unlikely given the number of 20s I’d been rolling on the split die, including a 15-game injury result for Moss.  But after a leadoff single, up comes Uribe and it’s a 6-5, the split die rattles around and stops on 2, and the Sox secure a 5-1 lead that is preserved in the bottom of the 9th by the risky David Riske and the Sox move on to the finals.

The finals consisted of two teams from the same season, a season not distinguished by particularly good pitching and that was reflected in the #3 starters on tap here.  For the top seeded 2006 White Sox it would be Javier Vasquez (11-12, 4.84) while the 2006 Red Sox would send out Josh Beckett (16-11, 5.01) but unlike Chicago, Boston would bring a fully rested bullpen into the final.   The Chisox begin the button of the 1st with two straight hits, but only convert one run that scores on a Jermaine Dye DP ball, and they miss a chance for another in the 2nd when Juan Uribe misses a HR 1-11 split and gets stranded at second.  That opens the door for the Red Sox, who lead off the 3rd with back to back doubles from Jason Varitek and Trot Nixon, and then with two out Chicago hands Boston the lead with back to back errors from 3B-1 Joe Crede and C-3 AJ Pierzynski.  In the 5th, Uribe leaves no room for splits as he hits the solid HR result on Beckett for a solo shot that ties the game.  With the regional crown on the line, Ozzie Guillen signals for the fat guy from the pen to start the 6th, and Bobby Jenks survives the 4th Chicago error of the game, this one by SS-2 Uribe, to hold off Boston in the top of the 6th.  When PH Rob Mackowiak leads off the bottom of the inning with a solid double, the Red Sox move to the pen for the first time in the regional and it’s Jonathan Papelbon and his 0.92 ERA; however, Tadahito Iguchi slaps a single and the 1-14 Mackowiak makes it home to put the Chisox ahead.  Then, in what seemed to be a significant repudiation of the White Sox jinx, Dye converts a SI* 1-4 and then Jim Thome converts a HR 1-14 for a 3-run blast and Papelbon still hasn’t retired a batter.  He then shuts down three straight but the game heads to the 7th with Chicago leading 6-2.  In the 7th Dye contributes a 2-out, 2-run double to extend the lead and Matt Thornton is brought in to begin the 8th in order to preserve Jenks for later rounds.  He issues two walks and a single to raise the anxiety of the New Comiskey crowd, but Uribe turns a clutch DP to end the threat.  Then Konerko restarts the fireworks by leading off the bottom of the inning with a long homer, and Thornton closes out the 9th with no issues as the White Sox wrap up a 9-2 win, committing as many errors (4) as the Red Sox get hits, and the Pale Hose claim their first regional win in the past 30 brackets, and avenge the first round exit of the 2005 championship team with largely the same players.  

Interesting card of Regional #242:  The 2006 White Sox team that won this regional was largely the same group that had won the first championship for the Sox since 1917, but as we’ve seen in the intervening years it was an isolated event, with the current team more in competition for the worst season of all time, and the longstanding team ownership once again making noises about moving the franchise to try to extort a new taxpayer-funded stadium, the same ploy that put them in the current ballpark in 1991.  As a long-suffering Sox fax, the confluence of events that led to the 2005 championship seemed to defy logic–for example, I’d like to see SADV Strat try to reproduce Scott Podsednik’s two key postseason homers with his “W” power rating.  Although I think it was the case of a bunch of guys with rather short primes in their career all hitting their peaks at the same time, another hypothesis is that the Sox finally solved a problem that dated back 100 years, a problem that was the subject of a fairly entertaining book about the franchise.  The key thesis is that the Sox had never been able to pull it together because they could never get significant productivity out of the third base position.  This book was published in 1983;  I think it was a bit unfair to 1971 AL home run champion Beltin’ Bill Melton, despite his dubious fielding, and it was printed before the career of Robin Ventura, who people forget was a fine third baseman and only remember him as Nolan Ryan’s punching bag.  However, if one subscribes to the “Who’s On Third” thesis, the thing that finally put the Sox over the top would be one Joe Crede.  Now largely forgotten by anyone not a Sox fan, Crede wasn’t the star of his teams; even for these 2006 regional winners, it was Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko and Jim Thome that were getting MVP votes, not Crede.  However, although Dye was the 2005 Series MVP, Crede still put together an OPS over 1.000 for the Series, and his quiet contributions to these bracket winners were similarly overshadowed–but it’s certainly plausible that they wouldn’t have done it without him.