REGIONAL #243:  This draw had one of the final die-cut entries in the tournament, which was the Red Sox from the season before the infamous Bill Buckner World Series, meaning that they were likely to be a pretty good team.  They also had company in the form of the 2019 version of the Red Sox as well as a Padres team that were both one year after a pennant,   Other teams of interest included entries from the Yankees and Mariners who were probably both decent, and an Astros team that was starting to climb toward a series of pennants but were still a trash can away from dominance.  Finally, there was a pandemic Marlins team that supposedly made the postseason and seemed to have a big stack of low usage cards, meaning that anything could be in there.  Given the performance of the Red Sox over the past few teams, I thought about predicting another all-Boston finals, but opted to select the 2019 version of the Red Sox to win it all over the pandemic Marlins.   The ELO ratings indicated that the Marlins were the worst team in a fairly strong bracket, and forecast that the Mariners would defeat the Yankees in the regional final.

First round action

The 2022 Mariners were bracket favorites, although after the 2023 version had been eliminated in the first round in the previous regional that didn’t lead to overconfidence. This edition won 90 games but was eliminated in the ALDS, with Julio Rodriguez winning Rookie of the Year and finishing 7th in the MVP ballots, and they boasted a deep rotation with Luis Castillo (8-6, 2.99) just one of many good options.  The 2015 Astros were in the process of becoming perennial contenders, winning 86 games and also making the postseason to be eliminated in the ALCS; Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48) won the Cy Young and finished 5th for MVP, while Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa also received votes.  Both aces start the game off in control; in the top of the 5th the M’s piece together a two-out rally and load the bases for Rodriguez, but he’s retired on a deep fly to prevent any damage.  They load them up again in the 6th, but Keuchel whiffs JP Crawford and again works out of the jam, and then he strands two in scoring position in the 7th to make it 8 men left on base in three innings for Seattle.  But they break through in the 8th, snapping the scoreless tie with a two-run homer by Mitch Haniger and Keuchel heads to the showers, with Will Harris coming in to wrap up the inning.  Meanwhile, Castillo is cruising until the bottom of the 9th, when after one out a pinch hit single is followed by a pinch hit homer by Hank Conger and suddenly the game is tied and the top of the Astros order is up.  That spells the end for Castillo, and the literally unhittable Matt Boyd and his 1.35 ERA are summoned, and after two straight strikeouts the game heads for extra innings.  Both teams go down in order in the 10th and 11th, which brings Harris to the end of his bracket eligibility and the greater bullpen depth of Seattle is beginning to look like a huge advantage.  Luke Gregerson (HOU) and Erik Swanson (SEA) take over for the 12th and both do their jobs, but in the 13th Rodriguez converts a TR 1-5 split on Gregerson’s card to drive in a run and he scores when the infield comes in and Cal Raleigh hits the gbA++--but it’s also with an injury and the Mariners with be without their all-star catcher in the semifinals.  Just to assure that they make the semifinals, Eugenio Suarez converts Gregerson’s HR 1-8 for a two run blast, and from there Swanson continues the hitless streak for Seattle in the extra frames, as the top seeded Mariners survive the 13-inning 6-2 win and head to the semis. 

The 2019 Red Sox were the number #3 seed in the bracket, although their 84 wins were a bit disappointing after their championship in the prior season.   Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts both finished in the top 10 for MVP while JD Martinez and Rafale Devers also received votes, and Eduardo Rodriguez (19-6, 3.81) was 6th for the Cy Young,  They faced the 1999 Padres, who had also won a pennant in the prior year but had fallen further to a 74-88 record, with elder statesmen like Tony Gwynn and Wally Joyner on the downslope of their careers and Andy Ashby (14-10, 3.80) the best of a lackluster rotation.  In the bottom of the 3rd, two walks set up an RBI double from Reggie Sanders to give SD the lead, although Rodriguez bears down and strands the remaining two runners in scoring position to keep it a one-run game.  That lead quickly evaporates with a solo shot from Michael Chavis in the top of the 4th, and when a Bogaerts double followed by a Devers triple lead off the 6th, the Padres waste no time summoning star reliever Trevor Hoffman to try to stay in the game.  He almost gets away with it, but a 2-out error from 3B-3 Phil Nevin and Devers scores to make it Boston 3, SD 1.  A two out RBI single by Betts in the 9th provides some more padding, which is good because things start going south for Rodriguez in the 9th.  An error by C-2 Christian Vazquez and a walk set up an RBI pinch hit single by Jim Leyritz, and a fielder’s choice by Joyner drives in another run to make it a one-run game with two away.  The Red Sox stick with their ace for one more batter, but Quilvio Veras doubles off Rodriguez’s card and now the tying run is on 3rd and the winning run on 2nd in the form of fleet-footed Veras.  That’s it for Rodriguez, and Brandon Workman comes in with no hits on his card to try to get that crucial last out against HOFer Gwynn.  There may not be any hits on Workman’s card, but there are five walk results and Gwynn hits one of them to load the bases for Sanders.  The roll is a 4-9, with 4-3, 4-5, 4-6, 4-7, and 4-8 all being walks, but 4-9 is a strikeout and Workman and the Red Sox survive the 4-3 win by the skin of their teeth.  

Bill Buckner (1B-2) and the 1985 Red Sox were still a year away from an infamous World Series appearance, going only 81-81 although Wade Bogg’ league leading .368 average earned him 4th place for AL MVP; the rotation was bleak after Oil Can Boyd (15-13, 3.70) was drained.  Nonetheless, they were substantial favorites over the 77-85 2021 Angels despite the presence of AL MVP Shohei Ohtani (9-2, 3.18), who hit 46 homers while also being the only pitcher on the staff with over 100 IP.  But Mike Trout was limited to part time duty due to injuries and the rest of the team was forgettable, making the Angels pretty much a one-man show.  In the top of the 3rd Marty Barrett misses Ohtani’s 6-5 HR 1-14 split, but with two out 1-14+2 Dwight Evans heads for home from first, and slides under the tag with a split roll of 16.  In the 4th, an error by SS-3 Luis Rengifo sets up a 2-run triple from Tony Armas to push the Boston lead to 3-0, but in the bottom of the inning a 2-out error by 2B-3 Barrett allows Rengifo to atone with an RBI single , Phil Gosselin follows with another, and it’s a one-run game after four.  In the 7th, Evans hits a long solo shot to provide a little insurance for a rather shaky Boyd, and Glenn Hoffman misses that 1-14 HR split on Ohtani but scores on a Barrett single; Boggs doubles and Buckner laces a 2-run single and Ohtani is struggling but the Angels won’t yank him as they don’t want to lose his bat.  He regains his form and ends up completing the game with 11 strikeouts, but it’s to no avail as the Red Sox advance with the 7-2 win.  

The #3 seeded 2015 Yankees won 87 games and made the postseason (briefly) as a wild card team, with 39-year old Alex Rodriguez getting some MVP votes after coming back from a year-long suspension, and Masahiro Tanaka (12-7, 3.51) was a decent round one starter.  The 2020 Marlins went 31-29 in the pandemic season and also made the postseason as a wild card, getting to the NLDS before they were bumped, but their ELO rating was terrible, perhaps the worst I’ve seen for a postseason team and also the worst in this regional.  Although the lineup was a bunch of unknowns, the mandated rotation turned out to be pretty good with Pablo Lopez (6-4, 3.61) at the top.  But it’s a rough start for Lopez in the top of the 1st; the leadoff hitter, Brett Gardner, scores a solid double off Lopez’s card, and that’s followed by an error from P-1 Lopez.  Then Carlos Beltran puts the Yanks on the board with an RBI single and Brian McCann follows with a 3-run homer and the Marlins are deep underwater before they even bat.  However, Brian Anderson makes it a game with a two-run blast in the bottom of the inning, and back to back two-out doubles from Matt Joyce and Jon Berti tie the game in the 2nd.  After his initial issues, Lopez begins to dominate the Yanks, while Tanaka is pitching from the stretch a lot but manages to avoid damage.  However, a leadoff single in the bottom of the 7th and New York has seen enough, with the nearly unhittable Dellin Betances and his 1.50 ERA coming in and striking out the side.  Two hits for the Yankees in the 9th and the Marlins respond with their own relief wonder, Yimi Garcia and his 0.60 ERA, but an error from SS-2 Miguel Lopez loads the bases.  In comes the infield, and that works as Anderson is a forceout at the plate trying to score on a grounder, and Garcia preserves the tie.  Betances survives a 2-base error from 3B-3 Chase Headley in the bottom of the 9th, and the game heads to extra innings.  ARod immediately changes the game with a leadoff homer to begin the 10th, and then hoping to preserve some eligibility for Betances the Yanks bring in closer Andrew Miller to try to secure the final three outs.  He does issue a walk but Starling Marte hits into the DP to end the game, and the Yankees scrape by with a 5-4 win to advance.  

The survivors

The top two seeds of the bracket face off in this semifinal with the favored 2022 Mariners and George Kirby (8-5, 3.39) against the 2019 Red Sox and a longball-prone Chris Sale (6-11, 4.40), although Seattle’s apparent starter advantage was offset by an injury to star catcher Cal Raleigh and a bullpen worn thin by a 13 inning game in round one.  The Mariners take the early lead when Julio Rodriguez raps a 2-out RBI single in the top of the 3rd, and for six innings Kirby is in total control   However, when the Red Sox lead off the bottom of the 7th with two straight singles, the deep Seattle pen gets the call in the form of Andres Munoz, and he sets down three straight as the Mariners cling to the one run lead after seven.  A leadoff single by injury replacement Curt Casili to lead off the 8th and Brandon Workman gets more work out of the pen and holds off the M’s, while in the bottom of the inning two walks set up a 2-out RBI single from Mookie Betts that ties the game heading into the 9th.  Workman strikes out the side in the top of the 9th to end his regional eligibility, and Munoz also strikes out the side in the bottom of the inning to send the game into extra frames.  Boston summons Marcus Walden to begin the 10th, and he gets through the 10th without incident, as does Munoz in his last inning of eligibility for Seattle.  However, in the 11th a walk and a Rodriguez double and there are two runs in scoring position with nobody out for Seattle, so Boston opts for strikeout specialist Matt Barnes and brings the infield in.  And it pays off, as Barnes strikes out two straight and CF-1 Jackie Bradley hauls in the final out, but when game 1 winner Erik Swanson is called in for Seattle he sets down Boston in order and the game heads to the 12th.  Barnes is perfect in the top of the 12th, while Swanson issues a single and two walks to load the bases in the bottom of the inning with one away, but Swansn whiffs Andrew Benintendi and Bradley flies out and the game heads to the 13th.  In the top of the 13th, a walk and a Rodriguez single is followed by another walk to load the bases; Barnes strikes out two in a row but DH Jesse Winker rips a 2-out single that drives in two.  So Seattle heads to the bottom of the inning with a 2-run lead but Swanson is toast and Penn Murfee is responsible for preserving the game against the top of the Boston order.  But a leadoff single and a walk set up an RBI single by Xander Bogaerts and the tying run is at 3rd with one away.  In comes the infield for backup 2B Marco Hernandez, who knocks a hard single to tie the game and put the now winning run on 3rd.  But Christian Vazquez pops out and Mitch Moreland whiffs and the game heads to the 14th.  Barnes survives an error from 3B-4 Brock Holt by striking out the last two Seattle batters in the top of the inning, while Murfee survives the bottom and things head to the 15th and the 5th Boston pitcher, Josh Taylor, who does his job, as does Murfree until he has to be lifted in the bottom of the 17th for Paul Sewald.  With two out in that inning, JD Martinez misses a HR 1-5 split for a double, then Bogaerts singles and 1-11+2 Martinez sets sail for home–a 16 split, and the game heads to the 18th.  A single and two walks in the top of the 18th load the bases for Seattle with one out, but 3B-4 Holt makes a miracle stop and Taylor whiffs Eugenio Suarez as his final batter to be faced.  In the bottom of the inning, a walk and an error by 3B-2 Suarez brings up Benintendi, who locates Sewald’s HR 1-9/flyB split; he converts the split and the Red Sox get a walkoff three-run homer in the 18th inning for a 6-3 win and yet another trip to the finals for a Red Sox squad.  

The other semifinal matched the #3 and #4 seeds in the bracket, the 2015 Yankees and Adam Warren (7-7, 3.29) against the 1985 Red Sox, who had Al Nipper (9-12, 4.06) trying to make it an all-Boston final.  That effort gets an assist in the top of the 1st with a two-out RBI single by Rich Gedman, but Nipper issues four walks in the bottom of the 3rd, and when that is combined with two hits and a 2-out error by none other than Bill Buckner, the score is 5-1 New York after three.  When Brett Gardner leads off the bottom of the 4th with a homer off Nipper’s card, Boston tries young Roger Clemens out of the pen, as he didn’t have enough innings to start, and he retires the side without further damage.  Boston narrows the gap slightly with a Tony Armas RBI single in the top of the 6th, and Armas drives in another with a triple in the 8th and he scores on a Dwight Evans single and things are getting a little more interesting.  The Yankees don’t want interesting, and they bring in Andrew Miller in search of his second straight save and he gets out of the inning without incident, but it’s now a two-run game.  Meanwhile, Clemens is burnt after four hitless innings so Bob Stanley gets the call, but Stanley yields a squib single, a walk, and then a three-run homer to the #9 hitter Jacob Ellsbury and the Yanks reassert dominance.  Seeking to preserve Miller’s last inning of eligibility, New York tries Braden Pinder for the 9th, which has the potential to go horribly wrong; Pinder gets two quick outs but then surrenders back to back doubles to Gedman and Armas but then 3B-3 Chase Headley makes a highlight play on a grounder for the final out and the Yanks head to the finals, working 9-5 for the win despite getting outhit 12-6.  

By ELO ratings, it was a very evenly matched regional final between the #2 seeded 2019 Red Sox and the #3 seed 2015 Yankees.  Both teams had been sorely pressed in the first two rounds and their bullpens were depleted, and in particular Boston’s 18-inning marathon in round two didn’t leave much support for a hittable David Price (7-5, 4.28).  The Yankees were in pretty much the same boat, and Nathan Eovaldi’s (14-3, 4.20) record seemed better than his WHIP (1.45) would indicate.  Price has only himself to blame for a bad bottom of the 3rd, as his 2-out error is followed by two walks to load the bases for Stephen Drew, and the .201 hitter finds and converts Price’s HR split for the grand slam to raise a lot of Bronx cheering.  Price is right from there, but true to form Eovaldi is working himself in and out of jams, with the Red Sox never able to capitalize as he finishes with a 4-0 shutout and the Yankees defeat their rivals for the 12th regional win for the franchise, only the third from this millennium.   This Yankee team did it with strong up-the-middle defense, timely hitting, and some good arms in a bullpen that was just deep enough to get them through some close scares.

Interesting card of Regional #243:  After 243 regionals involving 1,944 different teams that have played over the 40+ years of this project, nearly all of the remaining teams are from the recent past and I (a) don’t find most of those cards to be very interesting, and (b) assume that most people are already familiar with these cards.  Even I, who tends not to follow current baseball very close, am aware of the exploits of Shohei Ohtani, who won the MVP award in 2021 with a bad Angels team that exited this tournament in round one.  I had basically regarded him as a DH who would sporadically pitch, but what I didn’t appreciate before playing this team in the regional was that he was actually the “workhorse” of the Angels rotation, leading the team in IP.  In fact, the rules for the tournament require a starter to have at least 100 IP to be an option for the four-man rotation; if there aren’t four such pitchers (such as in the 2020 pandemic season), then the top four usage starters go in strict order of IP.  Now, 2021 was a full season, but even so these Angels had only one pitcher on the staff with 100 IP–and it just happened to be their best hitter:  Ohtani played in roughly 95% of the Angels’ games that year–as a comparison, Babe Ruth really only had one season where he appeared in 95% of his teams’ games and still pitched to any degree (17 games), which was in 1919, his last year with the Red Sox.  While leading the AL in OBP and SLG% that season, the Babe tossed 133 innings, comparable to Ohtani; however, he was the #4 starter on that team, with two other starters racking up more than 200 innings each.  Thus, although Ruth’s 1919 season is probably the only one comparable to Ohtani’s 2021, not even the Babe could argue that he was both the most valuable hitter AND the most valuable pitcher on his team that season–a distinction that Ohtani could claim easily.

REGIONAL #242:  Although seven of these eight teams were 21st century squads with whom I tend to be less familiar, this pull included a bunch of contestants that I suspected would be quite competitive.  The White Sox had two representatives, one of them from the season following their first Series win since the Dead Sox; there was also a pandemic year Astros team that had won the pennant the season before as well as the season following.  The Red Sox were represented by a team from two years following their long-awaited championship, and the Cardinals here had won three seasons previously.  Finally, the Mariners had an entry from the immediately prior season that I remembered as being in post-season contention as well, meaning that there were plenty of plausible competitors in this group.  Although I couldn’t remember exactly what prevented the Astros from completing their trifecta during the weird pandemic season, my guess was that a combination of quality players and low-usage wonders would propel them to a regional win, perhaps over the 2006 White Sox in the finals just to spite me while avenging getting swept by the 2005 Sox in the Series.   To complete a triple jinx, the ELO ratings picked those White Sox as the favorites, and also indicated that their first round opponent in the Mariners was the second-best team in the bracket.  Those ratings did agree that this was a strong bracket, with six of the eight teams in the top 1000 teams of all time, and although the ratings selected the same final matchup that I did, they predicted a different outcome, failing to account for my White Sox jinx in their statistical model.

First round action

Despite a mediocre 77-85 record, I thought the 2005 Diamondbacks were better than their terrible ELO rating indicated, particularly before the rotation had to move beyond Brandon Webb (14-12, 3.54); the heart of the lineup had some weapons including the over .1.000 OPS of DH Tony Clark.  I wasn’t certain why the 1999 White Sox had a better rating, as their record was slightly worse at 75-86 with a bad steroid-era rotation fronted by Mike Sirotka (11-3, 4.00), and a rather off year for Frank Thomas who hit only 15 homers in a full season of plate appearances.  Even so, back to back RBI singles from Thomas and Carlos Lee in the bottom of the 4th give the Sox a 2-0 edge that persists as both pitchers settle in.  Armed with a strong bullpen tandem, the Sox keep a close eye on Sirotka with the narrow margin, but they get some insurance in the bottom of the 6th when a 2-out Chris Singleton double is followed by another RBI single from the Big Hurt.  At that point the Dbacks move to Jose Valverde, the same reliever who blew a lead in the previous regional without recording an out, but he quickly bests that performance by retiring the side without further damage.  Sirotka holds onto the shutout until two are out in the 9th, when Royce Clayton rips an RBI triple into the corner, but he then whiffs PH Andy Green to wrap up a nifty 4-hitter and this Sox team moves to the semifinals hanging on for the 3-1 win.  

This was rated as an even matchup between two strong teams.  The 2020 Astros didn’t win the pennant in the pandemic year, although they did the season before and the season after; although in 2020 they finished at 29-31, the weird format permitted them to make the postseason and they made it to the ALCS before getting eliminated.  George Springer got some MVP votes and Framber Valdez (5-3, 3.57) did get one mention on a Cy Young ballot, but Jose Altuve hit an uncharacteristic .219 and Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel had mediocre showings.  Despite Houston’s sub-.500 record, somehow they had a better end-0f-year ELO rating than the 2006 Red Sox who went 86-76, and David Ortiz was busy trying to make everyone forget about the last regional’s MVP (Mo Vaughn) by leading the AL in homers with 54 and finishing 3rd for the MVP.  However, the rotation was scary, with Curt Schilling (15-7, 3.97) being their best despite allowing a lot of hits.  The Astros start fast out of the gate in the top of the 1st with a two-run Springer homer, but in the bottom of the 2nd Jason Varitek ties it with a two-run blast of his own.  A Bregman fielders choice scores Springer in the 3rd and the Astros move ahead once again, but Ortiz responds in the bottom of the inning by wrapping one around the foul pole for a solo shot and it’s tied up at 3-3.  The Red Sox squander a chance for a lead in the 4th when Mike Lowell (1-10) is nailed at the plate trying to score on an Alex Gonzalez double, but they do manage to move ahead in the 5th when Astros RF-3 Josh Reddick misplays a Kevin Youkilis single and allows Mark Loretta to score.   In the 7th Boston gets some insurance when 1-10+2 Ortiz lumbers home on a two-out double by Lowell, and Valdez is replaced by Andre Scrubb who ends the inning without further issues.  But Schilling is gutting it out, and he finishes out a 7-hit CG to lead Boston to the 5-3 win and a shot at their second straight regional crown.  

The ELO ratings show this as the marquee matchup of the regional, with the top two seeds facing off in round one.  The bracket favorite was the 2006 White Sox, who had swept the Series in the preceding season, but they had declined and despite 90 wins did not make the playoff; although there was still plenty of pop in the lineup with Jermaine Dye finishing 5th in the MVP voting with Paul Konerko and new pickup Jim Thome also receiving votes, their rotation had backtracked significantly, with Jose Contreras (13-9, 4.27) the best option.  The 2023 Mariners were the #2 seed with 88 wins, with Julio Rodriguez 4th in the MVP votes and JP Crawford and Cal Raleigh also getting votes; the difference was that the Mariners had a strong rotation with George Kirby (13-10, 3.35) getting the start.  Contreras walks two in the 3rd and then yields his first hit to Rodriguez, an RBI single for an early Seattle lead.  The Sox tie it in the bottom of the 4th with a two out rally consisting of three straight squib singles, the final one an RBI for AJ Pierzynski.  However, Rodriguez responds in the top of the 5th with a tape measure solo shot that restores the M’s lead., but in the bottom of the inning it’s Thome with a two-run blast and the Sox lead by a run after five.  In the 6th the Sox get runners on 1st and 3rd with one away, and the Mariners sense that they can’t afford to let the lead expand so Andres Munoz is summoned to put out the fire, and that proves to be a wise move as Munoz strikes out two straight to prevent any damage.  Manager Ozzie Guillen sends out reliever Mike MacDougal and his 1.55 ERA to begin the 8th to try to hang onto the slim margin, and he tosses a perfect top of the 8th, while in the bottom of the inning defensive replacement Rob Mackowiak raps an RBI double, which is followed with a 2-run single from Jermaine Dye and the Sox add considerable padding.   Speaking of padding, Ozzie then gives the “fat man” signal to the bullpen and it’s Bobby Jenks for the last three outs as the Sox move on with the 6-2 win in which they outhit Seattle by a 17-4 margin.  

Another good matchup for the last game of round one, featuring the 2021 Brewers and the 2016 Cardinals.  The Brewers won 95 games and the NL Central on the back of a strong pitching staff, with Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43) at the top of a remarkably strong rotation.  The Cardinals went 86-76 and had a lineup with weapons from top to bottom, although the rotation after Carlos Martinez (16-9, 3.04) was full of holes.  Both teams did have Kolton Wong at second base, allowing a test to see what two Wongs make, exactly.  Things go Wong for the Brewers in the top of the 2nd when their 2B-1 Wong makes the improbable error, setting up an RBI double from Randal Grichuk followed by a 2-run single courtesy of Matt Holliday; Stephen Piscotty adds another RBI single to continue the torching of Burnes and the Cards lead 4-0.  Eduardo Escobar leads off the bottom of the inning with a long home run to signal that the Brewers aren’t out of it yet, but Matt Adams drives in a run with a 2-out double after missing a HR 1-16 split and Matt Holliday leaves no doubt with a solid HR for two more runs.  In the 4th, .163 hitting Jackie Bradley Jr. pokes a two out single for the Brewers that scores one, but 1-13+2 Escobar is nailed at the plate trying to add another and it’s 7-2 Cards after four.  However, St. Louis loses Holliday, who already has four RBI, to injury in the 5th, but they begin the 6th with two straight hits and Burnes is toast, with Josh Hader coming in to relieve with no hits on his card.  It doesn’t matter, as Aledmys Diaz finds one on his own card that drives in two more St. Louis runs, Jedd Gyorko gyorks a solo shot, and the Cards reach double digits.  Grichuk adds another solo shot in the 7th,  The Brewers respond with three runs in the bottom of the inning, and although Martinez is struggling St. Louis is hoping he can hang on with the big lead and preserve the pen for later rounds.  In the 9th he’s roughed up for RBI singles by Avasail Garcia and Luis Urias, but he manages to close out the 11-7 win to send the Cards to the semifinals.  

The survivors

The 2006 Red Sox had won the Series two seasons earlier and would win another in the following year, and although this team had only the 5th best ELO rating in the bracket, it was still a strong rating that was appreciably better than that for the 1999 White Sox.  The Chisox were having to go deeper into a terrible rotation, and James Baldwin (12-13, 5.10) carried some land mines on his card, although Boston’s Tim Wakefield (7-11, 4.63) also had seen better years.  The second batter of the game, Maggio Ordonez, swats a solo shot that is followed by back to back doubles from Paul Konerko and Chris Singleton and it’s looking like the knuckler isn’t.  However, in the bottom of the 2nd Mike Lowell finds ye olde 6-5 solid homer on Baldwin and a few batters later Trot Nixon does the same for a two-run shot and the lead has changed it’s Sox.  In the 4th Jason Varitex misses Baldwin’s 6-6 HR split bur drives in a run with the resulting double, and Nixon knocks him with a single that chases Baldwin for Bobby Howry, who ends the inning.  Wakefield now seems to have the ball knuckling, and a three run homer by Kein Youkilis in the 7th breaks the game open, although Konerko leads off the 8th with a long ball that narrows the gap slightly.  That proves to be the last gasp for Chicago as Wakefield finishes out the 8-3 win in search of a second straight regional win for the franchise.

For the Zoom game of the week, I had the opportunity to try to overcome the Sox jinx with the top-seeded 2006 White Sox and the homer-prone Freddy Garcia (17-9, 4.53) against TT and the powerful 2016 Cardinals, who had demolished a Cy Young winner in round one and would send hit -laden Mike Leake (9-12, 4.69) to the mound.  The Friday Night Strat crowd was expecting some offensive fireworks with these two pitchers, but the game starts slowly, although the Sox do move to a 1-0 lead in the top of the 2nd courtesy of a Juan Uribe RBI single.  That lead holds up until the 4th, when Cards DH Brandon Moss finds that solid 6-5 homer on Garcia to tie the game, but Tadahito Iguchi converts his HR split in the 5th for a 2-run shot and the Sox move back in the lead.   Not trusting Leake, TT moves quickly to the pen in the 6th for Kevin Siegrist, who proves unhittable for two innings, while I take no chances with more Garcia gopher balls and tap Matt Thornton to pitch, and he is equally effective for the Sox.  Both squads use two of their best relievers in the 8th and both do their job, but in the top of the 9th TT calls upon Cards closer Seung Hwah Oh and his 1.92 ERA, to which I respond “Oh *****”.  But TT points to Oh’s 6-5 HR 1-2/flyB split and boldly predicts that I will hit it, which is rather unlikely given the number of 20s I’d been rolling on the split die, including a 15-game injury result for Moss.  But after a leadoff single, up comes Uribe and it’s a 6-5, the split die rattles around and stops on 2, and the Sox secure a 5-1 lead that is preserved in the bottom of the 9th by the risky David Riske and the Sox move on to the finals.

The finals consisted of two teams from the same season, a season not distinguished by particularly good pitching and that was reflected in the #3 starters on tap here.  For the top seeded 2006 White Sox it would be Javier Vasquez (11-12, 4.84) while the 2006 Red Sox would send out Josh Beckett (16-11, 5.01) but unlike Chicago, Boston would bring a fully rested bullpen into the final.   The Chisox begin the button of the 1st with two straight hits, but only convert one run that scores on a Jermaine Dye DP ball, and they miss a chance for another in the 2nd when Juan Uribe misses a HR 1-11 split and gets stranded at second.  That opens the door for the Red Sox, who lead off the 3rd with back to back doubles from Jason Varitek and Trot Nixon, and then with two out Chicago hands Boston the lead with back to back errors from 3B-1 Joe Crede and C-3 AJ Pierzynski.  In the 5th, Uribe leaves no room for splits as he hits the solid HR result on Beckett for a solo shot that ties the game.  With the regional crown on the line, Ozzie Guillen signals for the fat guy from the pen to start the 6th, and Bobby Jenks survives the 4th Chicago error of the game, this one by SS-2 Uribe, to hold off Boston in the top of the 6th.  When PH Rob Mackowiak leads off the bottom of the inning with a solid double, the Red Sox move to the pen for the first time in the regional and it’s Jonathan Papelbon and his 0.92 ERA; however, Tadahito Iguchi slaps a single and the 1-14 Mackowiak makes it home to put the Chisox ahead.  Then, in what seemed to be a significant repudiation of the White Sox jinx, Dye converts a SI* 1-4 and then Jim Thome converts a HR 1-14 for a 3-run blast and Papelbon still hasn’t retired a batter.  He then shuts down three straight but the game heads to the 7th with Chicago leading 6-2.  In the 7th Dye contributes a 2-out, 2-run double to extend the lead and Matt Thornton is brought in to begin the 8th in order to preserve Jenks for later rounds.  He issues two walks and a single to raise the anxiety of the New Comiskey crowd, but Uribe turns a clutch DP to end the threat.  Then Konerko restarts the fireworks by leading off the bottom of the inning with a long homer, and Thornton closes out the 9th with no issues as the White Sox wrap up a 9-2 win, committing as many errors (4) as the Red Sox get hits, and the Pale Hose claim their first regional win in the past 30 brackets, and avenge the first round exit of the 2005 championship team with largely the same players.  

Interesting card of Regional #242:  The 2006 White Sox team that won this regional was largely the same group that had won the first championship for the Sox since 1917, but as we’ve seen in the intervening years it was an isolated event, with the current team more in competition for the worst season of all time, and the longstanding team ownership once again making noises about moving the franchise to try to extort a new taxpayer-funded stadium, the same ploy that put them in the current ballpark in 1991.  As a long-suffering Sox fax, the confluence of events that led to the 2005 championship seemed to defy logic–for example, I’d like to see SADV Strat try to reproduce Scott Podsednik’s two key postseason homers with his “W” power rating.  Although I think it was the case of a bunch of guys with rather short primes in their career all hitting their peaks at the same time, another hypothesis is that the Sox finally solved a problem that dated back 100 years, a problem that was the subject of a fairly entertaining book about the franchise.  The key thesis is that the Sox had never been able to pull it together because they could never get significant productivity out of the third base position.  This book was published in 1983;  I think it was a bit unfair to 1971 AL home run champion Beltin’ Bill Melton, despite his dubious fielding, and it was printed before the career of Robin Ventura, who people forget was a fine third baseman and only remember him as Nolan Ryan’s punching bag.  However, if one subscribes to the “Who’s On Third” thesis, the thing that finally put the Sox over the top would be one Joe Crede.  Now largely forgotten by anyone not a Sox fan, Crede wasn’t the star of his teams; even for these 2006 regional winners, it was Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko and Jim Thome that were getting MVP votes, not Crede.  However, although Dye was the 2005 Series MVP, Crede still put together an OPS over 1.000 for the Series, and his quiet contributions to these bracket winners were similarly overshadowed–but it’s certainly plausible that they wouldn’t have done it without him.  

REGIONAL #241:  With the end of the first round of this tournament maybe in sight (at which point every Strat stock MLB team ever printed would be included), several of the entries in this regional represented the final team of their season to be selected.  It included two double entries, one for the Red Sox and one for the Indians, but the closest squad to a pennant were the ‘91 Blue Jays who would control the AL for the next two seasons.  I had seen quite a few games for the ‘97 version of the Red Sox so they were a bit of a sentimental favorite for me, but I didn’t think they could handle the Jays in a potential semifinal matchup.  I figured that Boston would get another shot at the Jays with the 1992 squad in the finals, but my hunch was that Toronto would prevail for the regional crown.  The ELO ratings agreed, further indicating that the Jays were the only good team in the group and that those ‘97 Red Sox would be their primary obstacle.

First round action

The regional began with the Zoom game of the week, with Philly partisan TT bravely consenting to guiding the bottom-seeded 99-loss 2015 Phillies against the 73-89 1992 Red Sox, managed by EaglesFly in a break from his usual Toronto responsibilities.  Although both teams were pretty dismal, the pitching matchup was top tier; Roger Clemens (18-11, 2.41) was 3rd in the Cy Young votes for Boston, while Cole Hamels (6-7, 3.64) would represent the Phillies despite being traded in midseason.  However, somebody forgot to tell Clemens about the pitchers’ duel as he starts out rough, stranding runners in scoring position for a couple of innings before an RBI single by Makiel Franco and a fielder’s choice from Ryan Howard push the Phils to a 2-0 lead in the 3rd.  To the point, Hamels hadn’t allowed a hit but in the bottom of the inning a leadoff single opens the floodgates and four hits and a few walks later, including one with the bases loaded to Tom Brunansky, the Red Sox move to a 4-2 lead and calls are going out to both bullpens.  Clemens strands a couple of runners in the 5th and begins to pull it together, while in the bottom of the 5th Jody Reed finds and converts Hamel’s HR split for a three run blast and Aaron Nola is called in to close the barn door.  However, the horses have already escaped as Clemens tosses three hitless innings to close out the game, and the Red Sox cruise to the 7-2 win to advance to the semifinals and the Phils head back to the card catalogs.  

This one was another matchup between two lousy teams.  Despite losing 97 games, the 2009 Indians were the slight favorite although Shin-Soo Choo was pretty much the only respectable bat and the rotation was dismal, with Justin Masterson (4-10, 4.52) the least terrible option.  The 2002 Pirates had a terrible ELO rating but lost only 89 games and would have the best hitter on the field in Brian Giles, who received MVP votes, and also the better pitcher in Kip Wells (12-14, 3.58) so to me the underdog here looked like a good bet.  The Pirates come out swinging in the top of the 1st and a run scores when 2B-3 Luis Valbuena drops a Giles grounder; Masterson then walks the bases loaded but escapes after a whiff and a DP ball from Adam Hyzsu, who also survives an injury roll with a 4 split, thus preserving his utility as a killer word for Wordle.  In the 2nd, Masterson gets two outs then issues three straight walks to once again load the bases, but strikes out Hyzdu to continue his bad day.  In the bottom of the inning, Valbuena atones with an RBI double, and then with two out Asdrubal Cabrera finds and converts Wells’ HR result for a 3-run shot, and the Indians lead 4-1 making the six men left on bases in two innings look even worse for the Pirates.  In the 4th, an RBI double from Travis Hafner is followed by a 2-run homer by Ryan Garko, and that bet on the Pirates isn’t looking too good.  A two out single by Jhonny Peralta chases Wells for closer Mike Williams, and he ends the threat with Jhonny going nowhere except to the spell-checker.  The Pirates then mount a 2-out rally in the 6th, with an RBI single from Jason Kendall and a run-scoring double from Hyzdu narrowing the gap to 7-3, although the Pirates strand two runners in scoring position.  The Indians get one back in the bottom of the inning when Garko doubles past Pirates 3B-4 Aramis Ramirez, but the Pirates respond as Rob Mackowiak leads off the 7th wtih a triple off Masterson’s card, and then scores when Kevin Young misses a HR 1-8/flyB also off the pitcher, so the score is now 8-4 and there is some activity in the Cleveland pen.  In the bottom of the 8th Hafner adds an RBI single to provide additional insurance, and although Masterson walks three in the 9th, he’s bailed out by a DP and the Indians prevail 9-4 to head to the semifinals.

The best matchup of round one features the bracket favorite 1991 Blue Jays against the #3 seeded 2021 Indians.  The Blue Jays would win pennants in the following two seasons, and the 1989, 1990, and 1993 squads had all already seen regional wins in this tournament.  This version won 91 games and the AL East, but lost the ALCS that would have given them a third straight pennant; Joe Carter, Roberto Alomar and Devon White all received MVP support and Tom Candiotti (13-13, 2.65) fronted a strong rotation that was backed by an excellent bullpen.  The Indians finished 2nd in the AL Central, albeit with a mediocre 80-82 record; Jose Ramirez had an excellent season finishing 6th in the MVP votes but the rest of the lineup was a bit of a hodgepodge, although swingman Cal Quantrill (8-3, 2.89) was a strong first round starter.  In the bottom of the 3rd Alomar converts Quantrill’s 6-5 HR split for a two run lead, but from there Quantrill proves to be unhittable, and when Ramirez singles and Franmil Reyes walks to put the go-ahead run at the plate in the top of the 8th, the Jays summon Duane Ward to try to preserve Candiotti’s shutout.  But it’s not gonna happen, as Bobby Bradley greets Ward with a double off a missed HR split; Ranirez scores, but the aggressive Cleveland coaches send the 1-10 Reyes home and he’s out by a mile.  The horrific Indians defense catches up with them in the bottom of the inning, as LF-3 Harold Ramirez donates a two-base error to the leadoff hitter and SS-4 Amed Rosario follows with another error; those runners score on a Manny Lee single and a John Olderud fielder’s choice to provide some padding going into the top of the 9th.  Seeking to preserve Ward, the Jays turn it over to Mike Timlin, who promptly yields two singles and a walk to load the bases and that’s it for the Timlin experiment, so Tom Henke is brought in with two out and Ramirez the go-ahead run at the plate.  Ramirez rips a grounder to 3B-1 Kelly Gruber, who makes it look easy and the Jays escape with a 4-1 win in which they only managed four hits.    

The final two teams of the ‘97 season to enter the tournament, with a coordinated color scheme no less, face off in the first round; the 1997 Red Sox ranked as the 2nd best team in the regional while the 1997 Reds were the #6 seed.  The 78-84 Red Sox had a formidable offense as Nomar Garciaparra was 8th for the MVP and Mo Vaughn also got some votes, but the outfield defense was terrible and the rotation after Tom Gordon (6-10, 3.74) didn’t inspire confidence.  The Reds had a similar record at 76-86; their problem was that they had a surprising amount of DHs for an NL team and a lackluster pitching staff fronted by Brett Tomko (11-7, 3.43).  Boston moves on up with Reggie Jefferson, who rips a two out RBI single in the 3rd, and the rally continues with a Vaughn single and a hit by Nomah that scores the rather slow (1-10+2) Jefferson.  Tomko then issues a walk to load the bases for Tim Naehring, who singles to score two more before the Reds finally get out number three.  When Troy O’Leary leads off the 6th with a homer off Tomko’s card the Reds immediately move to closer Jeff Shaw to have some semblance of a chance of staying alive, and he retires three straight but it’s now Boston with a 5-0 lead.  Reds PH Chris Stynes gets their first lead leading off the bottom of the 7th, and then another PH, Mike Kelly, singles and the Reds have 1st and 3rd with nobody out.  The Red Sox nervously eye their bullpen and notice that they have no real closer (having traded an ineffective Heathcliff Slocum midseason), so they stick with Flash Gordon, and he comes through stranding both runners to preserve the shutout.  A single and a double from Vaughn and Nomah to lead off the 8th sets up a sac fly from defensive replacement Jesus Taverez to extend the lead, but a double/single combo, both off Gordon’s card, finally puts the Reds on the board in the bottom of the inning.  However, a shaky Gordon hangs on from the and with the 6-1 win, another Red Sox team advances to the bracket semifinals. 

The survivors

According to the ELO ratings this was an even matchup between the #4 ranked 1992 Red Sox and #5 seeded 2009 Indians, with Boston’s Frank Viola (13-12, 3.44) getting the assignment against the next man up in Cleveland’s dismal rotation, Aaron Laffey (7-9, 4.44).   The Indians take the lead in the bottom of the 2nd on a 2-out RBI double from Asdrubal Cabrera, while the Bosox immediately tie it in the 3rd with an RBI single from Tom Brunansky, although 1-14 Billy Hatcher is out at the plate trying to get them the lead.  Cleveland reclaims the lead with a 2-out double by Ben Francisco that scores 1-16 Grady Sizemore from 1st, but Boston responds in the 5th with a Mo Vaughn sac fly and after a few walks a bases loaded double from Jody Reed and a 2-run single by Tony Pena make it 6-2 Boston.  Cleveland is done Laffey-ing and summons Tony Sipp, who immediately gives up the only complete hit on his card, a HR 1-18/DO that Luis Rivera converts into another two runs.  Meanwhile, Viola saves his crescendo for the late game, allowing only one hit over the final five innings and the Red Sox head to the finals with a convincing 8-2 win, although much of their offense came off the cards of Cleveland pitchers. 

The top seeded 1991 Blue Jays had to use three relievers to get through the first round, and they were hoping that Jimmy Key (16-12, 3.05) could provide some rest for them with a quality start.  However, they faced the #2 seed in the 1997 Red Sox and Tim Wakefield (12-15, 4.25), making this semifinal the marquee game of the regional.  Mo Vaughn leads off the bottom of the 2nd with a long shot over the Green Monster to provide an early Boston lead, but the pitchers settle in and runs are looking tough to come by.  The Red Sox bring in the defensive squad to begin the 7th, and they support Wakefield, with the last two outs of the game coming on X-chances to 2B-2 Jeff Frye.  So Wakefield tosses a 5-hit shutout to make it an all-Red Sox finals, with Key holding Boston to four hits but one mistake results in the tough 1-0 loss.  

No curse of the Babe evident here in an all-Red Sox regional final pitting the #2 seed 1997 Red Sox against the #4 seeded 1992 Red Sox, with surprisingly little in common between the two teams other than Mo Vaughn.  It would be the ‘92’s Danny Darwin (9-9, 3.96) against John Wasdin (4-6 4.40) of the ‘97s and both teams were at full strength with no injuries and rested bullpens.  In the bottom of the 2nd, it’s shades of _Moneyball_ as Scott Hatteberg pokes a 2-run homer to give the ‘97 team the early lead, and in the 3rd the ‘97 version of Vaughn crushes his second homer of the regional, a three run blast and the favored ‘97s have a formidable 5-0 lead after three innings.  In the 4th, the ‘92s lose Billy Hatcher to injury, but that seems to wake up their offense as Vaughn and Tom Brunansky both convert doubles off Wasdin’s card for their first hits of the game, and it’s now 5-1.  In the bottom of the 5th John Valentin doubles but 1-14 Darren Bragg is nailed attempting to score, and it’s time for the bullpen as Darwin evolves into Greg Harris.  But Troy O’Leary greets Harris with an RBI single to make the score 6-1, and the ‘97s bring in the defensive specialists to begin the 7th.  But Brunansky leads off by hitting Wasdin’s solid HR result to narrow the gap and begin some activity in the ‘97 bullpen, and when Wasdin yields a hard single to PH Ellis Burks to lead off the 8th the ‘97s summon a nameless card that apparently belongs to one Ron Mahay.  He avoids any damage, and then tosses a perfect 9th inning to make a name for himself, earning the save in the 6-2 win for the 1997 team where they join the ‘96 and ‘99 Red Sox teams as regional victors.  

Interesting card of Regional #241:  I didn’t really notice any truly unusual cards among these eight teams, so I figured I would feature that of the regional MVP whose home runs in the second and third rounds essentially made the difference for his team.  I think Mo Vaughn, who batted cleanup for both of the Red Sox teams in the finals, is somewhat of an overlooked player from these squads.  During his first six seasons as a Boston regular, he ranked in the American League’s top-five qualifiers in slugging percentage, batting average, home runs, on-base percentage, hits, RBIs, and OPS, winning the AL MVP in 1995.  This 1997 card reflects a pretty nice season, but he was far overshadowed by his Rookie of the Year teammate Nomar Garciaparra; in ‘97 Vaughn finished 25th in the MVP voting with a 1% share of the votes, and he wasn’t selected to the AL All-Star team although four other first basemen were.  Perhaps one reason that he’s overlooked is that he was essentially replaced on the Red Sox by a more enduring and more approachable version of the same type of player (David Ortiz).   After Vaughn left Boston as a free agent after the next season, injuries put a damper on his career, and he was out of baseball by the time his former teammates dispelled the Red Sox curse with their 2004 championship.  One of many sluggers from that era who were tainted by PED accusations, he received only 1.1% of the vote in his first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame which was not enough to remain on future ballots.  Nonetheless, he has been the foundation of the strong performance of Red Sox teams from the 90’s in this project, and deserves recognition as the most valuable player of Regional #241.