REGIONAL #240:  As we get to the final entries of the tournament, the teams get more and more contemporary, with an all 21st century lineup in this bracket.  I thought there might be a number of competitive teams here, with a Cards squad that would win the NL in two seasons and a recent Yankees team that should have some pop.  There were two versions of the Mariners that were on either side of the pandemic year, and my recollection was that they could be good enough to compete in this group.  There were versions of the Astros and Mets that were likely in decline following pennants from a few seasons prior, and a steroid-era Cubs team that could have a slugger’s chance of advancing, if that slugger could roll on his card.  It was hard for me to see a clear favorite here, but I selected the Cards over the pre-pandemic version of the Mariners with no logical justification for either.  The ELO rankings indicated that the two best teams in the bracket would face off in the first round with the Cards over the Yankees, and from there the Cards should be able to march to the finals where they were predicted to best the Astros coming out of a weak bottom half of the bracket.

First round action  

Having the two top-rated teams in the bracket facing off in the first game of the first round could make the rest of the regional a bit anticlimactic, but that was the luck of the draw involving the top seeded 2002 Cardinals and the #2 seeded 2021 Yankees.  The Cards won 97 games and the NL Central but lost out on a pennant in the NLCS; they could hit, with Albert Pujols second in the MVP votes and Jim Edmonds and Edgar Renteria also receiving support, and they could field, with four 1s and two 2s providing 75% of their defense.  However, their starting pitching showed the afflictions of the steroid era, although fortunately Woody Williams (9-4, 2.53) eked out just over 100 innings to be able to start round one.  The Yanks won 92 games but were quickly eliminated from the postseason as a wild card team; Aaron Judge was 4th for the MVP and although their rotation wasn’t deep, Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.23) was the runner-up for the Cy Young.  In the top of the 1st, it’s a guy who should have gotten some MVP votes but didn’t, Scott Rolen, who contributes a 2-out RBI single to put the Cards up early, but Anthony Rizzo returns the favor in the bottom of the inning with a 2-out run-scoring single of his own and the game is tied.  Renteria leads off the 4th with a double on a missed HR split, and then he’s tossed out trying to score (1-14) on a Fernando Vina single and the Cards continue a string of missed opportunities.  But in the 6th, Tino Martinez converts a 2-run homer off Cole’s card to push St. Louis into the lead, although Gio Urshela swats a solo shot in the bottom of the inning to make it a one-run game.  But that momentum comes to an abrupt halt in the bottom of the 7th as Judge ends the inning with a 10-game injury and Yankee Stadium becomes deathly silent.  In the 8th, Renteria singles, steals second, and again is nailed at the plate trying to score on a Vina single; Cole then walks two and loads the bases, so the Yanks move to Jonathan Loaisiga out of the pen who promptly yields a 2-run single to Edmonds off the pitcher’s card and the Cards have additional insurance.  However, when Tyler Wade leads off the bottom of the 9th with a single, the Cards summon Mike Crudale from the pen to try to close things out, but Crudale immediately provides Giancarlo Stanton with a pitcher’s card double and the tying run is at the plate with nobody out.  Crudale then retires two quickly with no runner advancement to bring up the hole in the order formerly occupied by Judge.  Pinch hitter Luke Voit comes out to try to fill the shoes, but the 2-11 roll misses his 2-10 homer and it’s game over, as the Cards move on with the 5-2 win.

After the two top teams in the bracket played in the previous game, the best remaining squad according to the ELO ratings was the 2021 Mariners, who did win 90 games although in setting the lineup I wasn’t sure exactly how; they had a decent core of the team with Mitch Haniger getting mentioned on one MVP ballot, but the rest of the team seemed to be positions by committees, and those committees weren’t very productive.  The round one start would go to Chris Flexen (14-6, 3.61), whose assignment was to put down the 2002 Cubs, who lost 95 games. However, that was nearly 10 game worse than their Pythagorean projection, and looking at their lineup I liked their chances with Sammy Sosa (9th for MVP), Fred McGriff and Mark Bellhorn all providing more pop than any of the Mariners, and Mark Prior (6-6, 3.32) sported a strong card making these underdogs a solid bet.  In the bottom of the 2nd, two walks and an error by Cubs SS-2 Alex S. Gonzalez loads up the bases for Jarred Kelenic, who draws another walk to score one and a sac fly from Jake Fraley makes it 2-0 Seattle without benefit of any hits.  In the 5th, Luis Torrens adds a 2-run single and that is followed immediately by Abraham Toro’s 2-run homer and after five Seattle has a commanding 6-0 lead.  The Cubs finally get on the board in the 8th on PH Angel Echevarria’s 2-run blast, and then with two out in the top of the 9th Gonzalez smacks another two-run shot and things are starting to get interesting.  The Mariners elect to try to preserve the pen and give Flexen one more batter to get the final out, and SS-1 JP Crawford helps out his teammate with a nifty play and the Mariners survive and advance with the 6-4 win.  

Immediately after their siblings posted a round one win, it’s the 2019 Mariners’ turn to try to continue the quest for an all-Seattle final.  These Mariners were clearly the worst of the two M’s, losing 94 games and sporting some terrible fielding holes behind Marco Gonzales (16-13, 3.99), who deserved better.  Fortunately for him, the 2008 Astros weren’t the same team that won the NL a few seasons earlier, but they still won 86 games with Lance Berkman 5th in the MVP votes, and Roy Oswalt (17-10, 3.54) was still the anchor of the rotation.  Seattle moves in front in the top of the 4th courtesy of a Kyle Seager two-run blast, but Ty Wigginton responds immediately by leading off the bottom of the inning converting Gonzales’ HR split, and then the hits just keep coming.  Hunter Pence contributes an RBI single, Miguel Tejada adds a two-run double on a missed HR split, Jose Castillo follows that with a double and the M’s decide to pull Gonzales, who still hasn’t retired anyone in the 4th.  Sam Tuivailala, with no hits on his card and six vowels in his name, comes in and closes out the side in order, but the Astros now lead 5-2 after four.  Domingo Santana leads off the top of the 5th by converting a TR 1/SI** and he scores on a JP Crawford sac fly to narrow the gap, but Carlos Lee and Pence have consecutive doubles in the bottom of the inning to restore the previous margin.  Mariners PH Kyle Lewis begins the 8th with a long homer, and two outs later Jay Bruce adds another solo shot and Roy O. heads for the showers as Geoff Geary comes in to get the last out, but it’s a one run game entering the 9th.  Geary allows a single to Omar Narvaez, but he fans PH Tom Murphy for the final out and the Astros hang on for the 6-5 win.  

The ELO ratings suggested that this was a matchup of closely matched underachievers.    Although they had the slightly worse rating, the 2004 Mets looked better than a 91-loss team as they got a good season from 21 year old rookie David Wright (although not a single vote for Rookie of the Year) and Al Leiter (10-8, 3.21) headed up a decent rotation at age 38.  I had similar thoughts about the 79-83 2015 Diamondbacks, whose top half of the order was imposing with Paul Goldschmidt the MVP runner-up and AJ Pollock also getting some votes; Robbie Ray (5-12, 3.52) had a card that deserved a better record with those bats behind him.  The Mets break the ice in the 3rd when Jose Reyes squibs a split single, swipes second, and scores on a double by #9 hitter Jason Phillips.   In the bottom of the inning Pollock follows a similar path with a walk, stolen base, and ties the game on a Phil Gosselin single, but the Dbacks then leave the bases loaded when Mets SS-4 Kaz Matsui makes an unexpectedly fine play to end the inning.  Wellington Castillo puts Arizona ahead with a solo shot in the 5th, but Eric Valent responds immediately in the 6th with one of his own and the game is tied once again.  When Reyes walks and steals second in the top of the 7th, the Dbacks sense the game is on the line and bring in closer Brad Ziegler, and he passes the test with two straight rolls on his card to end the threat.  They move to Andrew Chafin in the 9th to try to preserve Ziegler in the hopes that they can win the game in the bottom of the frame and avoid extra innings, but although an error from Mets CF-2 Mike Cameron puts the winning run in scoring position, Leiter survives and on to the 10th we go.  Chafin looks dominating striking out the side in the top of the 10th, but Leiter is perfect in his last inning of eligibility and the game goes on.  Chafin continues to hold, and the Mets move to Orber Moreno for the bottom of the 11th.  In the 13th, Chafin is burnt for the regional and the Dbacks dig deeper into their pen for Randall Delgado, but neither team can do anything so the game moves to the 14th.  Delgado sets the Mets down in order in the top of the 14th, but .227 hitter Chris Owens draws a leadoff walk for the Dbacks and steals second to put the winning run in scoring position with nobody out.  But SS-4 Matsui handles two consecutive X-chances flawlessly to bring up Goldschmidt; Moreno pitches to him cautiously and walks him, bringing David Peralta to the plate.  Peralta singles, the 1-15+2 Owings heads for home, and with a split of 16 he slides under the tag and the Diamondbacks move on with the 3-2 win, but with their RF Inciante injured for the regional and with their bullpen sorely depleted by the 14 inning marathon.  

The survivors

The top seeded 2002 Cardinals and Matt Morris (17-9, 3.42) had eliminated the #2 seed in round one, and now in round two they faced the #3 seed in the 2021 Mariners, whose Marco Gonzales (10-6, 3.96) had a decent card but had some trouble keeping the ball in the park.  In the bottom of the 2nd, the Mariners keep locating singles on Morris’s card, with the .210 hitting Jake Fraley and .181 hitter Dylan Moore each driving in a run with one of them, but in the 4th the Cards tie things up with solo homers from Eli Marrero and Tino Martinez–neither of them coming from Gonzales’s rather generous HR results.  However, in the next inning Scott Roland does find one of those pitcher HR results for a two-run shot that puts the Cards ahead, but Morris continues to struggle as Fraley leads off the bottom of the inning with a single and races home (1-14) on a JP Crawford double.  Crawford then scores on a 2-out single from Luis Torrens and Morris comes unglued, walking the bases loaded before issuing another walk to Jarred Kelenic that puts the M’s ahead once again.  With the game heading into the 6th inning and both starters struggling, the bullpens are a hub of activity and when Edgar Renteria singles to lead off the inning, Seattle brings out Casey Sadler with his .0.67 ERA and no hits on his card to try to hang onto the lead, and he ends the inning without incident.  Then in the bottom of the inning Morris yields a leadoff single off his card to Fraley for the latter’s third hit of the game, and Morris is yanked for closer Jason Isringhausen, who likewise shuts down the Mariners and as the game enters the 7th, it looks like it will be a battle between the star relievers.  Sadler throws three perfect innings and entering the 9th, the Mariners are hoping to preserve some use for him and Drew Steckenrider is brought in to try to close things out.  But the leadoff batter in the 9th raps a liner that RF-3 Mitch Haniger turns into a two-base error, and the tying run is in scoring position with nobody out.  Steckenrider whiffs Fernando Vina for one out, but then SS-1 JP Crawford bobbles a grounder for the second error of the inning and there are runners on 1st and 3rd with one away.  In comes the infield, but a pitch gets past C-4 Torrens and the tying run scores; with the go-ahead run now on second, Steckenrider whiffs Jim Edmonds and we head to the bottom of the 9th.  The Cards elect to burn Izzy for his final inning of eligibility, and he does the job, while Torrens is injured for the tournament to end regulation.  In the top of the 10th, Haniger makes another two-base error but Steckenrider strands the runner at second; in the bottom of the inning, Mike Crudale comes in and holds to send the game to the 11th.  In the top of the 11th, Kerry Robinson, who had come into the game as a pinch runner, singles to lead off the inning and races to 3rd on a Vina single, so it’s 1st and 3rd with nobody out.  In comes the infield, but Mike Metheny finds a double on Steckenrider’s card and St. Louis moves ahead.  With two runners still in scoring position, Steckenrider bears down and gets two outs with no damage, but then up to the plate steps Albert Pujols, who delivers a moon shot that blows the game open.  Crudale now faces his final inning of eligibility in the regional, but he yields a leadoff single to Crawford that’s followed by a long blast from Haniger and it’s down to a two-run deficit with nobody out.  But although Kyle Seager adds another single, he goes nowhere as the Cardinals fend off a stubborn Mariner team with a 9-7 win and a trip to the finals–but with little left in the bullpen.  

The bottom half of this bracket would match the #4 seed 2008 Astros and Wandy Rodriguez (9-7, 3.54) against the #5 seeded 2015 Diamondbacks, who needed a strong outing from Josh Collmenter (4-6, 3.79) after their 14 inning marathon in round one depleted their bullpen and injured their right fielder.  However, it was a rough start for Collmenter as Carlos Lee whallops a 2-run homer in the top of the 1st, although AJ Pollock leads off the bottom of the inning with a double and races home on a Paul Goldschmidt single that make it 2-1–but injury replacement Phil Gosselin is himself  knocked out of the game for the third Arizona injury of the regional.  Houston gets a solo shot from Ty Wigginton in the top of the 3rd to make it 3-1 Astros, but Jerrod Saltalamaccia makes me type his name out with his own solo blast in the 4th to get the run back.  When Lance Berkman leads off the 6th converting his split homer, the Dbacks in desperation move to closer Brad Ziegler, who has two innings of eligibility remaining, and he finishes those two innings without further damage.  To begin the 8th, the Dbacks summon Randall Delgado but leading off is Berkman again, and once again he converts that same HR split, and meanwhile in the bottom of the inning injury replacement Yasmany Tomas is knocked out of the tournament and the Dbacks are out of outfielders.  But they open the bottom of the 9th with two hard singles off Wandy's card, and the Astros elect to give him one more batter to straighten out.  That batter is Welington Castillo, and he is Wandy’s Waterloo, just missing his 2-6 HR with a 2-5 RBI single and it’s now a two run game with the tying run aboard and nobody out.  The Astros make a gutsy call, and summon Jose Valverde with his 44 saves–and his solid 6-5 HR result.  And who should be up but Saltalamaccia, in the game because of injury; the roll is indeed a 6-5, it’s a three run walkoff homer to put the banged and bruised Diamondbacks into the finals with the remarkable comeback win by a fitting 6-5 score.  Valverde gets the loss recording zero outs; Delgado gets his second win of the regional, but he’s toast for the regional and Arizona is out two position players and three relievers going into a final in which they would be considerable underdogs regardless. 

The 2002 Cardinals were the ELO favorite in the bracket and they had already eliminated the #2 and #3 seeds on their way to the finals.  They now faced a 2015 Diamondbacks team that had two walk-off wins while suffering four injuries and burning their three best relievers to get this far.  For the Cards, it would be Chuck Finley (11-15, 4.15) on the hill, a guy with a long history of poor run support in this tournament, and St. Louis was also without their two best relievers who had been used heavily in their first two rounds.  The Dbacks were down to Rubby de la Rosa (14-9, 4.67), who was slightly less terrible than their other alternatives, and with both bullpens shot this had the making of a high-scoring affair.  After a bit of searching, JD Drew and Albert Pujols both find doubles on delaRosa’s card, and Scott Rolen then finds a double on his own card to drive in Pujols and the Cards lead 2-0 after the top of the 3rd.  Doubles in the bottom of the 7th from the recovered Phil Gosselin and David Peralta make it a one run game and St. Louis opts to bring in Andy Benes, who escapes the inning with the lead.  DelaRosa guts it out through nine to keep it a one run game, and things head to the bottom of the 9th, with the Dbacks trying to keep a streak of walk-off wins alive against Benes.  Peralta finds a double at 4-11 on Benes’ card to put the tying run in scoring position with one away, and Welington Castillo squibs a SI 1-8 and it’s 1st and 3rd and the infield comes in for game 2 hero Jerrod Saltalamacchia who lofts a deep fly to CF; Peralta tags to tie the game and we head to extra innings.  JD Drew crushes the first pitch in the top of the 10th for a homer, and Edmonds goes back-to-back and a dejected delaRosa heads to the bench as Zack Godley comes in to retire the side.  Once again, it’s Benes’ game to win, and #9 hitter Chris Owings leads off by missing Benes’ HR 1-12/DO split to signal that the Dbacks aren’t done yet.  The next batter, AJ Pollock, finds that 4-11 double and it’s a one run game with nobody out and the 1-17 leadoff man in scoring position.  A squib single from Gosselin sends the tying run to 3rd and the Cards have seen enough from Benes, who has allowed seven hits in 2+ innings, so Dave Veres and his solid 6-5 homer come in to try to save the day.  Veres fans Paul Goldschmidt but Peralta lofts a sac fly to CF and the game is tied with two out.  Up to the plate steps Saltalamacchia; and he rips one out towards LF-3 Pujols; it gets by him for a double with three base advance, Gosselin crosses the plate with the winning run and the Diamondbacks walk it off for the third time in a row, capturing the regional with the 5-4 extra inning win.  It’s the first regional win for the expansion franchise, with three previous trips to the finals ending in losses; Jarred Saltalamacchia makes me type his name one more time as the regional MVP, delivering the walkoff hit in both the semifinal and final while only being in the lineup because of the team’s multiple injuries.

Interesting card(s) of Regional #240:  The 2004 Mets didn’t survive the first round of the tournament, and perhaps that’s a good thing, because in setting their lineup and rotation I came across a somewhat unexpected situation.  In the more recently printed seasons, it’s not uncommon for a player to have more than one card for a team–one reflecting his entire season (typically placed with the team he finished the season with), while the other reflecting only his performance with that team.  Tournament rules accommodate this by mandating that only the highest AB/IP card will be used, which provides the greatest sample size and hence the presumably better estimate of the player’s ability.  So I’m used to encountering two cards for one player on a given team, but this one threw me for a loop; you see, Jae Seo’s IP are exactly the same on both cards.  In fact, all of his stats are exactly the same–but the cards are not.  They are also different on the back side as well; on both, the number of hit and walk chances are the same, but the outcomes are worse on one than on the other.  My suspicion is that one of these is an “error” card that was subsequently reprinted and then included with the set–but if so,  I have no idea which one is the error and which is the corrected one.  Often I can find reference to such situations on the “news and announcements” archives found on the Strat website, but that only goes back to 2008, so I’m guessing the explanation came on one of those little one-inch strips of paper that they were notorious for including with your purchase.  But, there was no need to worry, because the Mets cooperated with a rapid exit from the tournament and his services as a starting pitcher were not necessary.  Now, in researching this feature I learned that this pitcher, Jae (weong) Seo, had an older brother, Jae (Hwan) Seo, who was signed by the Mets at the same time, so in fact the Mets may well have had two Jae Seo’s in their system in 2004, and perhaps they were as confused as I about the situation.  Although the older brother never reached the majors, it thus seems fitting that the Mets would have two Jae Seo’s in their card set.