Wednesday, June 30, 2021

ELO SEEDINGS:   Having now completed 100 regionals, I thought I'd tabulate how the ELO rankings were doing in predicting regional winners over these 100 brackets. Let's just say that your odds of winning are a lot better if you are the #1 seed than if you are the #8 seed, although #4 seed doesn't seem to be a bad place to be!




Tuesday, June 22, 2021

REGIONAL #100:  This regional represents a milestone marking that 800 different teams have tried their luck in this tournament.  This group of 8 featured two NL pennant winners, the 1993 Phillies and the 2013 Cardinals, and four other teams were within 5 years of a pennant, so it looked to be a competitive group--although I was wondering if my random team selector program was working properly when it chose 7 consecutive NL teams, finally sneaking the Indians in as the final selection.  I had no idea who to pick to win, but I went with the Cardinals over the 1964 Giants in the finals.  The ELO ranks were pretty similar to my guesses, as they also chose theCards over the Phillies in a final matching the two pennant-winners.


First round action:

It was the current vs. the former New York NL teams with the 90-win 1964 Giants against the 75-win 2002 Mets, 21-win Juan Marichal vs. Al Leiter on the mound.  The Giants start the scoring with a run in the 3rd on a Mays single, although Hal Lanier is thrown out at the plate trying to add another.  Lanier does score in the 5th on a Jay Alou DP ball, but that run is quickly recaptured when Mo Vaughn leads off the bottom of the inning with a blast that makes it 2-1 Giants.  When the Giants start the 7th with two quick singles, Leiter is pulled for Mark Guthrie, but Guthrie allows both runners to score on singles from Alou and Cepeda, although things could have been worse as the Giants leave the bases loaded.  Marichal is cruising until the bottom of the 9th, when with 1 out he allows a walk, a single, and then a 3-run HR to Jeromy Burnitz, and suddenly it's a tie game and we're heading for extra innings.  Mets closer Armando Benitez is given the challenge of holding the Giants at bay, but McCovey leads off the 11th by finding Benitez's HR result and it's 5-4 Giants.  However, with Marichal toasted after pitching 10 innings, the Giants must turn to a shaky bullpen to try to hold the lead, with elder statesman Billy Pierce given the job.  Wigginton singles and Alou's error sends him to second, Burnitz singles, and in comes the infield to try to keep the tying run from scoring.  A grounder moves Burnitz to second as the winning run, and #9 hitter but key defensive player Rey Ordonez is up, and the Mets let him bat.  He rolls the FLY-X to CF--it's Willie Mays, and it's game over as the Giants squeak by with the 5-4 extra inning victory.

The pennant-winning 97-win 1993 Phillies and Tommy Greene faced a HOFer in Pete Alexander and his mates on the 81-72 1924 Cubs in what looked to be the best matchup in the first round of this regional.  The Phils open the scoring in the bottom of the 2nd when John Kruk races (?) home on a 2-out double by Jim Eisenreich, but the Cubs take the lead 2-1 in the 4th on RBI singles from Gabby Hartnett and Hooks Cotter.  A solo shot from Hartnett in the 6th makes it 3-1 Cubs, and Alexander has settled into a groove that renders Veterans Stadium eerily quiet.  A leadoff walk and a double by Jigger Statz makes the Phillies look to the bullpen, but with Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams as the closer, the Phils take their chance with Greene and bring the infield in.  Sparky Adams responds with a gbA++, it's now 5-1, and the Phils try Larry Andersen on the mound.  But Andersen allows three straight hits, there's still nobody out and the score is now 7-1, and the Phils figure things can't get much worse so they try Wild Thing--who retires the side with no further damage.  The Cubs score another run in the 8th courtesy of a 3-base error by Pete Incaviglia.  The Phils finally get to Alexander in the bottom of the 9th for back-to-back solo HRs from Inky and Wes Chamberlain, but it's too little and too late as Alexander finishes up with a 5-hitter and the Cubs get the 8-3 upset win in convincing fashion; the Phils commit three errors to underscore a big weakness that forces them to join the list of pennant winners eliminated in the 1st round.

The 53-64 1994 Rockies were a prime example of the Colorado teams of that era--imposing hitting and almost no credible starting pitching, further weakened by tournament IP restrictions because of the strike-shortened season.  They faced a pennant-winning 97-win team in the 2013 Cardinals, a well-balanced team who had solid starting pitching, a deep bullpen, and a strong lineup, albeit not quite comparable to the offensive capabilities of the Rockies.  The Cards had 19-game winner Adam Wainwright going against spot starter Marvin Freeman, by far the most effective Rockies starter.  Andres Galarraga puts the Rockies on top with a solo HR in the 2nd, converting a HR 1-4 split off Wainwright's card, but Colorado's Joe Girardi gets hurt in the 3rd and the Rockies have little backup at backstop.  The Cards can't get anything going against Freeman until the 5th, when a 2-out rally culminates in a 2-run double for Matt Carpenter, and the Cards now lead 2-1.  St. Louis breaks through in the 7th, loading the bases with nobody out and Allen Craig and Carlos Beltran take turns driving the runners in, and it's now 6-1.  Matt Holliday drives in an insurance run in the top of the 9th, but Wainwright doesn't need it and the Cards walk away with the 7-1 win, avoiding the 1st round jinx of the pennant winners to move to the regional semifinal.

The 1958 Indians had a mediocre 77-76 record with their awesome starting rotation from earlier in the decade largely gone, although they did have an imposing Rocky Colavito in the lineup.  Their opponent, the 73-89 2007 Nationals, had a much more shallow starting rotation than the Indians and fewer offensive weapons, but they took a 1-0 lead on a Cristian Guzman RBI single in the 3rd against Indians starter Gary Bell, who was fortunate it wasn't worse as the Nats left the bases loaded.  Nats CF Nook Logan (which sounds like a good deadball era name) drives in another run in the 4th to make it 2-0 Washington, but the Indians get the run back in the bottom of the inning when Vic Power records the first Cleveland hit of the game, a solo HR off the card of Nats starter Jason Bergmann.  Logan almost has another RBI single in the 6th, but Ryan Church is cut down at the plate to end the inning.  However, Dmitri Young's sac fly in the 7th does make it 3-1 Nationals, and the Indians are helpless against Bergmann; they don't get their second hit of the game until the bottom of the 9th when Minoso doubles, but it leads to nothing as the Nats put the Indians away with a 3-1 win and earn a matchup against a pennant-winner in the regional semifinal.

The survivors:

Both the 1924 Cubs and the 1964 Giants reached this semifinal courtesy of Hall of Fame starters on the mound; the Giants had yet another as their #2 starter in Gaylord Perry, while the Cubs would need to win with the more pedestrian 15-game winner Vic Keen.  And Keen allowed an RBI single to Mays and a 3-run HR to Jim Ray Hart before he got anybody out, and the Giants give Perry a quick 4-run pad in the 1st inning.  Keen settles down quickly and tosses 5 scoreless innings, but the Giants strike again in the 7th with a Jay Alou RBI single and a Cepeda 2-run shot that makes it 7-0.  Meanwhile, the Cubs are busy racking up injuries, losing Cutter and Statz with a very shallow bench unable to offer much help.  Regardless, none of the Cubs are able to solve Perry's mystery pitch, as he fans Gabby Harnett to end the game with a 4-hit shutout and the Giants cruise to the regional final with the 7-0 victory.

Moving into the semifinal round of the regional, going deeper into the starting rotation wasn't a problem for the pennant winning 2013 Cardinals with 15-game winner Shelby Miller, but the 2007 Nationals sent 7-game winner Matt Chico to the mound with considerable trepidation.  Their anxiety proved justified when the first batter of the game, Jon Jay, belted a HR off Chico's card, and Allen Craig added a 2-run shot that was also off Chico's card in the 4th.  A Beltran RBI single in the 5th makes it 4-0 Cards, and the Nationals decide they better call Saul Rivera out of the bullpen.  Saul manages to hold the fort until the 9th, when Matt Holliday singles in two runs to push the St. Louis lead to 6-0, but it doesn't really matter as Miller is killer and he ends up with a 4-hit CG shutout to propel the Cards to the final with the 6-0 win.


Matches 2 HOF teammates
The regional final paired two good teams, the 2013 Cardinals pennant winners against a good 1964 Giants team that boasted 5 HOFers on the roster, with Jack Sanford and Lance Lynn as the starters.  The Giants jump to a 2-0 lead in the 2nd when Harvey Kuenn converts a HR 1-5/flyB split off Lynn's card for a 2-run shot, and the Cards attempt to respond in the bottom of the inning falls short when Allen Craig is nailed at the plate for the final out.  SF adds two more in the 3rd with a leadoff HR by Cepeda, and Mays doubled and scored on a Hart single.  A 2-run blast from Tom Haller makes it 6-0 Giants in the 5th, and the Busch Stadium faithful that expected to celebrate the regional win have fallen deathly silent.  When Lynn allows two straight hits to begin the 7th, the Cards try Kevin Siegrist and his microscopic 0.45 ERA, and he retires the side with no damage.   The Cards then load the bases in the bottom of the inning but Cepeda turns a key double play to end the threat, and that was the high-water mark for St. Louis as Sanford wraps up the Giants second CG shutout in a row, and the regional title with the 6-0 victory.  This is the 8th regional win for the Giants franchise, although their first for a team from the 1960s.


Interesting card of Regional #100:
  Although Willie Mays had a great card, I selected this particular card instead to illustrate the inconsistency as to how the game company lists sub-1.00 ERAs.  Sometimes there is a leading zero, sometimes not, but the omission used on this card makes me think of the pre-Astros team name for Houston more than an ERA value.   Regardless, it's quite a card for a reliever, with a remarkable H/IP ratio and decorated with plenty of K's.  2013 was Siegrist's first year in the majors, and of course from there his career ERA had nowhere to go but up; he had a good year in 2015 leading the NL in appearances, but never recaptured that 2013 dominance.  When he was sent to the minors after spring training to begin the 2018 season, Siegrist refused to report, and he never pitched again in the majors.


Wednesday, June 9, 2021

REGIONAL #99:  After a serious family medical emergency, things have settled down sufficiently to allow me to play Regional #99 in an attempt to try to distract me from my nursing duties.  Hopefully I can get in a few more regionals before the summer is over.

Regional #99 featured no pennant winners, but a bunch of teams on the verge of one:  the Rockies and the Giants would do so in the following year, while the Jays, Pirates, and Dodgers were all just a few years away.  However, I was picking the 1999 Mariners over the Jays to capture the regional, as I remembered some great Seattle teams from that vintage that simply couldn't get past the Yankees to reach the Series.  The ELO rankings suggested that, as usual, my memory was faulty; those rankings tapped the 2014 A's to win it all--a team I had absolutely no memories of.

First round action:

The 2006 Rockies did win the NL the following year, but they only went 76-86 and were hampered by poor pitching and porous defense.  Thus, it was a pretty even matchup against the 74-79 1958 Orioles who had solid pitching and defense, but not quite the offensive altitude of the Rockies lineup.  However, it was the starting pitchers, Colorado's Jason Jennings and O's Arnie Portocarrero, who controlled matters, as the game was a scoreless tie after 9 innings, with the two teams only combining for 5 hits in regulation.  In the top of the 10th, Jennings walks Woodling with two out and Brooks Robinson singles him to 3rd, so Colorado turns to closer Brian Fuentes and he fans Billy Gardner to end the threat.  In the 12th, Woodling again walks with 2 out and Robinson doubles, but Woodling is cut down at the plate trying to score a go-ahead run.  In the 14th, Fuentes has to give way to Ramirez on the mound, but the O's still can't score; in the bottom of the 14th, Hoyt Wilhelm has been cruising but a Helton single and a walk to Garrett Atkins leads to runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 out.  Wilhelm delivers a knuckler to Brad Hawpe--single 1-13, the split roll is a 9 and the Rockies take the 1-0 14 inning marathon win to move on.

This 1st round matchup featured two teams that I didn't think looked as good as their records:  The 1989 Blue Jays won 89 games and the AL East, and had many good players but most of them had rather off years.  The 2014 A's won 88 games to finish 2nd in the AL West, although for all the hype about Billy Beane and "moneyball" I was surprised to see lousy OBP numbers on most of their lineup, and their all-"4" DP combo didn't impress me.  However, with two good #1 starters going in Dave Stieb and Jon Lester, the scoring drought that began in the previous game continued with no score through 6 innings, but when the Jays put two on in the 7th the A's turned to their deep pen and Fernando Abad, who keeps the Jays off the scoreboard.  But Stieb isn't showing any weakness, and for the second game in a row, after nine innings it's a scoreless tie, with only three hits between the two teams.  In the top of the 12th, Mookie Wilson gets a hit against the 3rd A's reliever, Luke Gregerson, and Moseby singles him home to give the Jays a 1-0 lead, and it's up to Tom Henke to preserve the game.  Henke records two quick outs, but then PH Adam Dunn singles, Craig Gentry pinch runs and steals second....and then Johnny Gomes hits Henke's killer 6 column and fans.  Game over, Jays win 1-0; Stieb goes 10 scoreless innings and allows only 1 hit, but Henke records the win with two scoreless relief innings.

Neither the 88-win 2009 Giants nor the 79-win 1999 Mariners looked quite like what I expected; the Giants surprised me with a pretty good pitching staff but a rather lackluster offense, while the Mariners had the fearsome heart of the lineup in Griffey Jr., ARod, and E. Martinez that I anticipated--and not much else, hitting or pitching-wise.  RBI singles in the bottom of the 1st by Martinez and Russ Davis give the Mariners a 2-0 lead, marking the first runs scored in regulation innings in this regional.  An Andres Torres solo shot in the 2nd makes it 2-1, but ARod doubles in Brian Hunter to push the Seattle lead to 3-1.  When Giants starter Tim Lincecum walks the first two batters of the 4th and then is tagged for the 3-run homer by Griffey Jr., the Giants try Jeremy Affeldt and his 1.73 ERA out of the pen, and he and his successor Brian Wilson hold Seattle scoreless for the remainder of the game.  However, the Giants just can't solve M's starter Freddy Garcia, who stays strong until the Giants mount a 2-out rally in the 9th, but they can only score one when Freddy Sanchez singles home Aaron Rowand.  The game thus ends with a 6-2 win for the Mariners on a strong showing from Garcia, who scatters nine hits, and the big three in the Seattle lineup.

Both the 92-win NL East champ 1975 Pirates and the 95-win NL West champ 1985 Dodgers impressed me as nicely balanced teams that seemed quite capable of taking this regional, and the pitching matchup of 19-3 Orel Hershiser against a sneaky good John Candelaria had the makings of a tight one.  The Pirates score a run in the top of the 2nd when they manage to nail two hits off Hershiser's ungenerous card, and a Stargell sac fly in the 3rd makes it 2-0.  That lead is short-lived, as Pedro Guerrero blasts a solo shot in the bottom of the inning to narrow it to 2-1, and then Enos Cabell finds Candelaria's HR result in the 4th for a 2-run shot that gives the Dodgers a 3-2 lead.  In the 5th, Al Oliver is hurt and has to leave the game, and the next batter, Dave Parker, launches a prodigious homer into the right field pavilion of Dodger Stadium to put the Pirates back on top 4-3, and it's clear that neither of these teams is going down easily.  When the Dodgers put men on 1st and 3rd with nobody out in the 6th, the Pirates eye the bullpen but leave Candelaria in and bring in the infield--and Mike Scioscia rips it through the infield with the gbA++ to tie the game.  The Pirates reverse that strategy, bringing in Tekulve and pushing the infield back--and Greg Brock's fielders choice gives the Dodgers a 5-4 lead.  Hershiser takes command until the top of the 9th, when he walks Sanguillen and has to face Parker with two out--Parker rolls a HR 1-2/DO, gets a 3 split, but Sanguillen races home on the double with the tying run, and the Dodger must now try to score with a lineup of defensive replacements.  However, Tekulve allows two hits to lead off the bottom of the 9th, and now faces defensive rep Bob Bailor with runners on 1st and 3rd and the infield in.  The roll: 4-6 on Tekulve, DO 1-2/SI**, and Bailor is mobbed by his teammates to celebrate the epic 6-5 Dodger win.

The survivors

The semifinal between the 2006 Rockies and the 1989 Blue Jays featured two teams that took a combined 26 innings to score two runs between them, which is a first for this tournament.  For the superstitious, the pitching matchup featured two 13-game winners in Jimmy Key (TOA) and Jeff Francis (CON), neither to be confused with Cy Young.  The Rockies score two in the 3rd led by Matt Holliday's triple; the Jays don't get a hit against Francis until the 6th, but they then load the bases and a Kelly Gruber single drives in two to tie the game at 2-2.  Rockies low AB wonder Jeff Baker, coming in for late innings, does his job and belts a solo HR in the 7th to put Colorado up 3-2, with Henke relieving Key to end the inning without further damage.  Francis allows 2 hits in the bottom of the 7th, but with their closer burnt in the previous marathon game, the Rockies stick with him and he gets out of the jam unscathed--but when the first two batters of the 8th get on, Ramon Ramirez is summoned from the pen, and although he allows no hits an Ernie Whitt sac fly ties the game at 3-3.  With Henke burnt, Duane Ward comes in for the top of the 9th and retires the heart of the Rockies lineup in order, so it's up to Ramirez to hold the Jays, and he doesn't--he fails to record an out, allows three straight hits, and the last one, a Mookie Wilson single, gives the Jays the 4-3 come from behind win and a berth in the finals.

The 1999 Mariners were hoping that their big 3 of ARod, Griffey, and EMartinez could lead them to the first regional title in franchise history, but they faced a big obstacle in Fernando Valenzuela and the 1985 Dodgers.  Things got off to a rough start for M's starter John Halama when Bill Madlock found his HR result for a solo shot in the 1st, which rattled Halama and he loaded up the bases but managed to pitch out of the jam with no further damage.  However, Halama allows 4 straight hits to open the 2nd, including a 2-run Madlock double, and it's now 4-0.  In the 3rd, Seattle loads the bases against Valenzuela, and he then walks Russ Davis to make it 4-1, but Fernando recovers his control and ends the threat.  Another Dodger 2-run double, this one from Mike Marshall in the 4th, chases Halama (3+ IP, 10 HA) for Gil Meche, and it's LA 6-1.  Doubles from Landreux and Sax in the 5th make it 8-1 Dodgers, and the Mariners try Paul Abbott on the mound to try to stop the bleeding while the Dodgers are putting in defensive replacements, mainly to reduce injury risks that might hamper later rounds.  Abbott handles the Dodger bench, but the Mariners can't get to Valenzuela until the top of the 9th, when they load the bases with 1 out and ARod at the plate.  It's a GBX to scrub 2b Dave Anderson, who converts the DP and the Dodgers win 8-1, Valenzuela with a 6-hit complete game to push the Dodgers into the finals.

Mariners get mania'd

The regional finals paired two division winners from the 80's, the 1985 Dodgers and the 1989 Blue Jays, with the ELO rankings indicating that the two teams were quite evenly matched.  However, the Dodgers bullpen was fully rested and the Jays pen taxed after two tight games, and LA's Bob Welch seemed to have the advantage over Jays John Cerutti as starting pitcher, so the Dodgers looked to be well positioned for a 7th regional win for the franchise.  LA strikes first in the bottom of the first, when Bill Madlock hits a solo shot that would have been a 2-run HR except Steve Sax had been caught stealing.  The Dodgers get that second run in the 2nd on a Landreaux sac fly, but Mookie Wilson gets the Jays first hit in the 4th and scores on a Moseby double to make it 2-1.  An Enos Cabell sac fly in the bottom of the 4th pushes the Dodger lead to 3-1, but Junior Felix hits a solo blast to lead off the top of the 5th to get the run back. Mike Marshall takes Cerutti deep to lead off the bottom of the 6th, and Cerutti is injured on the very next batter, replaced by a young David Wells.  When George Bell hits a 2-out solo shot in the 8th, the Dodgers replace Welch with Tom Niedenfuer.  In the top of the 9th, Pedro Guerrero misplays a Junior Felix hit to send Felix to 2nd, but Niedenfuer needs just one out to clinch the regional--and he doesn't get it.  Tony Fernandez doubles to tie the game, and then Mookie Wilson singles home Fernandez and the Jays lead for the first time in the game, 5-4.  Wells holds the Dodgers in the bottom of the 9th, and the Blue Jays take the come-from-behind 5-4 win and the regional title--only the second (with 1985) regional win for the Jays.


Interesting card of Regional #99:
  This selection wasn't determined until the late innings of the regional final, as I was digging through the Jays' depleted bullpen for help and was somewhat surprised to run across this guy.  If you're like me, you remember David Wells as a portly but effective workhorse starter, mainly with the Jays and the Yankees, but I did not remember that he began his career as a relief pitcher.  This 1989 card was his final season as a full-time reliever, and it's quite good, although somewhat lost in an excellent bullpen that also featured Tom Henke, Duane Ward, and Jim Acker.  But Wells was the one who stepped in for the injured John Cerutti and held the Dodgers scoreless while the Jays clawed back, earning the win in the regional final.  He also had a colorful career that was lubricated by an abiding affection for beer, pitching a perfect game at age 34 in which he claimed he was 'half-drunk, with bloodshot eyes, monster breath, and a raging, skull-rattling hangover,' having gone to bed at 5 a.m. and gotten just an hour of sleep.


Thursday, May 6, 2021

 REGIONAL #98:  This regional was balanced in having four teams from this millennium and four from the previous one; it had one pennant winner in the 2014 Giants and also had Reds, Cubs, and Tiger teams that had won a pennant a year or two previously.  My pick was the Giants over the Cubs in the finals.  The ELO rankings portrayed this as a strong bracket, with 7 of the 8 teams in the "top 1000"; they picked an all-Tigers final with the 2007 squad going back nearly a century to beat the 1911 Tigers.  According to the ELO ranks, the pennant-winning Giants were only the 8th best team in 2014 and were the 3rd worst team in this regional.

First round action

The 2004 Dodgers won 93 games and the NL West, but they faced a 91-win 1983 Yankees team who had 21-game winner Ron Guidry on the mound.  Nonetheless, the Dodgers took a 1-0 lead in the top of the 1st when Steve Finley singles home Beltre, but the Dodgers lose LF Jayson Werth for the tournament to injury to end the inning, and the Yankees add insult to that injury when back to back doubles by Wynegar and Baylor against Dodger starter Brad Penny make it 2-1 NY in the bottom of the 1st.  The Dodgers tie it in the 3rd on a Jose Hernandez double, but both pitchers settle down and there are no more hits until the 7th, when the Dodgers score two on a Cesar Izturis triple and a Graig Nettles error (the Yanks' 4th of the game).  With a lead and a strong Dodger bullpen, Penny is on a short leash and when Steve Kemp leads off the bottom of the 7th with a double, Eric Gagne is summoned to lock things down, but Willie Randolph eventually brings Kemp in with a sac fly to narrow the gap to 4-3.  Things stay that way until the bottom of the 9th, when the Dodgers summon Carrara to try to preserve Gagne for later rounds, and he does the job, retiring a succession of Yankee pinch-hitters to preserve the 4-3 win and the Dodgers move on.  Guidry allows 7 hits, but 6 Yankee errors make his job impossible.

The 2014 Giants went 88-74 to finish 2nd in the NL West, but went on to win the pennant and the World Series from a wildcard slot, while the 1911 Tigers went 89-65 to finish 2nd in the AL behind big years from HOFers Ty Cobb and Sam Crawford.   The Tigers jumped to a 1-0 lead in the top of the 1st on a Stanage RBI single, but Crawford has to leave the game after his first AB with a minor injury.  Jim Delahanty (not to be confused with any of his 4 brothers who also played) hits a 2-run shot off SF starter Madison Bumgarner in the 3rd, and it's 3-0 Detroit.  The Giants finally get on the scoreboard against Tiger starter George Mullin in the 6th, on a Pablo Sandoval RBI single, but when a Cobb single puts men on 1st and 3rd in the top of the 7th, the Giants bring in Casilla in relief, and Delahanty promptly knocks a gbA++ to score a run with Cobb held.  The Giants get the run back in the bottom of the 7th when Tiger 2b-2 Charlie O'Leary boots a Pence grounder to score Joe Panik, narrowing the gap to 4-2 Detroit.  Casilla holds the fort, and in the bottom of the 9th a Panik single and a Michael Morse double put the tying run in scoring position for Pence with 2 out, but Mullin induces the popout and the Tigers head to the semifinal, where Crawford is expected to return to the lineup.

According to the ELO rankings, the 50-104 1953 Pirates were one of the 20 worst teams of all time, with bad pitching and defense and limp hitting with only the Other Frank Thomas' 30 HR as a real threat.  On the other hand, the 2017 Cubs were fresh off their 1st World Series win in a century, and won 92 games and the NL Central, making them prohibitive favorites in this matchup.  Things remain scoreless until the 4th, when the Cubs get to Pirate starter Paul LaPalme for 3 runs, including a Kris Bryant blast, and add two more in the 5th with RBI singles from Contreras and Happ.  Another run on an error in the 6th chases LaPalme in favor of Johnny Hetki, but with a 6-0 lead the Cubs are putting in the defensive replacements wholesale in support of starter Jose Quintana, who is cruising.  DH Kyle Schwarber adds a 2-run blast off Hetki's card in the 7th, and the few fans in Forbes Field were streaming towards the exits.  They didn't miss anything, as the Cubs coast to the 8-0 win, Quintana with a 5-hit shutout to preserve the formidable Cubs bullpen for later and more difficult rounds.

For teams from decidedly different eras, the 88-win 2007 Tigers and the 98-win 1962 Reds had a lot of similarities:  formidable lineups top to bottom, two hotshot #1 starters in 18-game winner Justin Verlander and 23-game winner Bob Purkey on the mound, and rather mediocre defense as their weak spot.  The game remains scoreless through six innings, with Tiger CF Curtis Granderson lost for the tournament in the 3rd, further weakening a suspect defense, but then Reds LF Jerry Lynch gets injured for 2 games to lead off the 4th to even things up.  The Tigers finally get to Purkey in the bottom of the 7th with four hits to take a 2-0 lead, and they add another in the 8th on a Pudge Rodriguez double.  The Reds never do solve Verlander, and the Tigers move on with a 3-0 win, Verlander tossing a 4-hit shutout against the imposing Reds sluggers.

The survivors

In the semifinal matchup between the 2004 Dodgers and the 1911 Tigers, both starters--Wilson Alvarez and Wild Bill Donovan--began the game allowing lots of baserunners but getting bailed out by double-plays, with the Tigers finally putting up a run on a Cobb single in the 3rd, although he was immediately caught stealing to end the inning.  A Steve Finley sac fly in the top of the 6th knotted things up, but when Alvarez puts the first two Tigers on in the 7th, it's time for Eric Gagne.  However, Gagne's magic is lacking as a Moriarity single and a Davy Jones sac fly puts the Tigers on top 3-1.  The Dodgers immediately respond to tie it in the top of the 8th on RBI singles from Shawn Green and injury replacement Jose Hernandez, but the Tigers push ahead again when Cobb singles, steals second, and scores when Choi badly boots a Stanage grounder.  In the top of the 9th, Donovan gets two quick outs but then Izturis and Cora get back-to-back singles to bring up Adrian Beltre (.334, 48 HR)--and Beltre takes Donovan's offering into the cheap seats, and the Dodgers take their first lead of the game, 6-4.  With Gagne burned, the Dodgers turn to Carrara to try to pick up his second straight save, and he does the job, retiring Crawford as the tying run to seal the 6-4 win and a trip to the regional final.  Worthy of note:  post-2000 teams went 4-1 against pre-2000 teams in this regional, with all of the latter now eliminated.

Both the 2007 Tigers and the 2017 Cubs had won their first round matchups via shutouts, but it was quickly apparent that starters Chad Durbin and the Cubs' Mike Montgomery weren't going to duplicate that feat.  The Cubs score in the top of the 1st on a Rizzo single, and the Tigers respond in the bottom with a Magglio Ordonez 3-run HR.  The Tigers add another run on a Gary Sheffield solo shot in the 2nd, but RBI singles from Rizzo and Happ in the 3rd narrow it to 4-3 Tigers.  Injury replacement Timo Perez drives in a run to make it 5-3 in the 4th, but Kyle Schwarber matches that in the bottom of the inning and it's 5-4 and the Cubs yank Montgomery in the 5th and look to their deep pen to hold the Tigers in check.  When Durbin walks the first two Cubs in the 7th, Detroit turns to their own pen and Bobby Seay, but that doesn't go well as Willson Contreras blasts a 3-run shot to put the Cubs up 7-5.   In the 8th, Placido Polanco hits a solo shot off Cubs closer Wade Davis to make it 7-6.  The Cubs lose Contreras to injury in the top of the 9th, then bring in reliever Carl Edwards and a host of defensive replacements to try to hold the one-run lead in the bottom of the 9th.  Edwards does his job, the Cubs notch the see-saw 7-6 win and move to the finals seeking to be the 4th Cubs team, and the 1st of this millennium, to take a regional.  

Better than the real thing

The regional final between the 2004 Dodgers and 2017 Cubs featured two NL division winners, but they both had a regular injured and a bullpen taxed by tight semifinal games, and down to their #3 starters it was apparent that team depth would be an important factor.  The Dodgers strike in the 2nd when some sloppy defense by Cubs LF Ian Happ allows two runs to score, but the lead is short-lived as Dodger starter Odalis Perez walks the bases loaded in the 3rd and then allows 3-run homers to both Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber, and a solo shot to injury replacement Alex Avila--making it 8-2 and Perez is gone after 2+ innings in favor of the difficult-to-spell Yhency Brazoban.  With the big lead, Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is cruising, as he allows only 2 hits after the 2nd inning, and a Javier Baez single adds an insurance run in the 6th as the Cubs coast to a 9-2 victory and the regional win--only the 4th for the franchise (after 1969, 1974, and 1990).  The regional title was very much a team effort, as the leading run producer for the Cubs across the three games was Willson Contreras--who was injured for the final.


Interesting card of Regional #98:
  Carl Edwards Jr. only pitched in one game in this regional, notching the save in the 2nd round, but he and his Cubs relief mates constitute one of the better bullpens I've seen in the tournament recently.  What I find remarkable about Edwards' card is that hits-to-innings ratio.  For context:  aided by the short 2020 season, Trevor Bauer set the all-time record for lowest H/9 ratio with a 5.05 value.  Bauer qualified for the record by tossing 73 innings in 2020; Edwards threw only 7 innings fewer than Bauer, but his 3.93 H/IP blows Bauer's "record" out of the water.  Of course, Edwards did have some control issues--how many pitchers have you seen that allowed more walks than hits?   Then again, how many times have you seen a result like that on a 4-12 roll?  The odds of converting that 4-12 single are 1 in 4,320; because Edwards has only faced 736 batters in his 6-year career thus far, at his current rate he would need to pitch another 29 seasons before he'd have even odds of allowing that 4-12 single.

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

REGIONAL #97:  The draw for this group was an interesting one--nothing from the 21st century, and my initial glance at the bracket suggested that all eight teams were going to be pretty good, with the 1955 Yankees winning a pennant and a number of other teams entered that I thought were probably pennant contenders.  Because a Yankee squad had won the previous regional and potentially broken somewhat of a Yankee jinx in this tournament, I decided to pick an all-Yankees final here, with the 1955 version besting the 1934 version.  Unusually, my picks aligned with those using the ELO ranks, which listed the '55 Yanks as one of the 100 best teams of all time.  Those rankings also tabbed the Giants and the '53 version of the White Sox as dark horse candidates.


First round action

The 1955 Yankees won 96 games and the American League, although they finally got beat by the Dodgers in the Series.  The 1962 White Sox won 85 games to finish 5th in the AL, but their 1961 counterparts reached the finals of Super-Regional E and they were starting 20-game winner Ray Herbert against the Yank's Whitey Ford.  Herbert reels off four perfect innings against the Yanks, but in the top of the 5th Skowron ends the no-hitter by leading off with a HR 1-16/TR split that he misses--and then gets stranded at third.  The Sox luck, which was evident in the previous super-regional, persists when McDougald misses a HR 1-10/flyB split in the 6th.  In the 8th, Skowron tries to score from 2nd on an Irv Noren single--and is cut down at the plate to end the inning, but Ford is still holding the White Sox scoreless.  Finally, in the top of the 9th, Elston Howard pinch-hits for Billy Hunter and doubles, McDougald squibs a single, and the Sox infield comes in with nobody out and Hank Bauer at the plate.  The Sox think about Turk Lown, but leave Herbert in, and....boom, Bauer converts a HR 1-4/DO split, the Sox split dice magic has run dry, and Whitey Ford retires the Sox in order for a 3-hitter shutout and the 3-0 win.

The matchup between the 87-67 1930 Giants and the 77-win 1998 Rockies featured two teams from very different eras that each came from seasons with crazy hitting numbers; the Giants had 6 hitters with averages above .325 (including Bill Terry's .401), while the Rockies had 5 .300 hitters and 4 guys with more than 20 HR.  Of course, neither team had much pitching, although Carl Hubble certainly compared favorably to Darryl Kile as a #1 starter.  Surprisingly, the game remained in a scoreless tie until the bottom of the 4th, when Larry Walker broke up Hubbell's no-hitter with a double, and then Vinny Castilla singled him home to give the Rockies a 1-0 lead.  The Giants strike back in the 6th when a Fred Lindstrom homer gives them a 2-1 lead, but history repeats itself in the bottom of the inning with a Walker double & Castillo single to tie the game at 2-2.  With a stronger bullpen than the Giants, the Rockies have Kile on a short leash and when he allows a single to Ethan Allen in the 7th, Dave Veres is summoned.  Veres runs into trouble in the 8th, when with 2 out he allows a Terry single, walks Mel Ott, and then singles by Shanty Hogan and Fred Leach bring them both home, and the Giants lead 4-2 with Veres yanked in favor of Dipoto.  Hubbell quickly retires two Rockies in the bottom of the 8th, but then Helton triples, Walker hits his 3rd double of the game, and Castilla....homers, and the Rockies now lead 5-4 heading into the 9th.  Dipoto gets 2 quick outs in the 9th, but singles by Jackson and Lindstrom bring up Bill Terry with the tying run in scoring position; Terry smacks a hard liner to RF but Walker makes a spectacular play and seals the 5-4 win for the Rockies.

Lots of bombing
The 94-60 1934 Yankees finished in second place in the AL with great years from Lou Gehrig and Bill Dickey, and although Hall of Famers Babe Ruth, Earle Combs, and Tony Lazzeri were in decline, they still were threats.  The 91-71 1962 Twins also finished second in the AL and had some threats of their own, with all eight position players hitting double digits in HR and Harmon Killebrew only falling short of Gehrig's 49 HRs by one.  Furthermore, two 20-game winners were on the mound, Lefty Gomez and Camilo Pascual, and although the ELO ranks had the Yanks as sizeable favorites I felt that the two teams were pretty evenly matched.  However, when both Gehrig and Ruth went yard in the top of the 1st inning to give NY a quick 3-0 lead, I had to reconsider, and when they pounded Pascual for another 5 runs in the 2nd (including 3 runs on Gehrig's 2nd homer), I bowed to the wisdom of the ELO ranks.  A Bob Allison homer in the 4th makes it 8-2, but the Yanks quickly get those runs back when Ruth hits HIS second HR of the game and it's 10-2.   When Crosetti leads off the 6th with a HR off Pascual's card, the Twins run up the white flag on Pascual and try Joe Bonikowski, who does retire Gehrig for the first time of the game, and when Killebrew mashes a solo shot in the bottom of the inning the score is 11-3.  A Versalles double in the 7th makes it 11-4, but in the top of the 9th Gehrig hits his 3rd homer of the game to put the icing on a 13-4 blowout victory for the Yanks--with Gehrig and Ruth, playing in their last season as teammates, combining for 5 homers and 10 RBI.

The 1953 White Sox won 89 games to finish 3rd in the AL, while their 1st round opponent, the 1969 Phillies, lost 99 games with Richie Allen fairly lonely as their primary weapon.  The Sox jump out to a 2-0 lead with three extra-base hits off Rick Wise's card, including a triple by Jungle Jim Rivera, but the Phillies tie it in the 2nd when a Sam Mele error leads to a 2-run Don Money single off Sox starter Virgil Trucks' card.  The Phils move out in front in the bottom of the 3rd on a Callison sac fly, but the Sox then tie it in the 5th when Nellie Fox triples and Minoso singles him home.  The Sox push across two more in the 8th on a Bob Boyd RBI single, his 3rd hit of the game, and the Phillies search the bullpen but see no better options than Wise.  Mele atones for his earlier error with a solo shot off Wise in the 9th, and Trucks sets down the Phillies to send the Sox to the semifinals with a workmanlike 6-3 victory.

The survivors

The 1998 Rockies had an offense that benefited from the double whammy of altitude and the steroid era, but their starting pitching suffered terribly from both, and the latter was on display when the 1955 Yankees' Mickey Mantle hit a 2-run homer off John Thomson in the top of the 1st and Yogi Berra followed with a solo shot in the 4th.  When Thomson walked four batters in the 5th, the Rockies turned to their already depleted bullpen to try to quench the flames, but by the end of the 6th it was 7-0 Yankees and Tommy Byrne was bringing the Rockies down to sea level.  Colorado finally scored when Neifi Perez doubled home a run in the 8th, but that was the best they could muster as the Yanks cruise easily to the finals with a 7-1 win on Bryne's 4-hitter.

Ouch
It was two strong #2 starters with the 1934 Yanks' Red Ruffing against the 1953 White Sox and Billy Pierce in a good semifinal matchup, with the Bombers trying to make it an all-Yankees regional final.  Neither team can notch a hit until the 3rd, when both squander scoring opportunities--Crosetti missing Pierce's HR split and getting stranded at second, and then Nellie Fox hitting into a DP with runners on 1st and 3rd to end the bottom of the inning.  However, the Sox do get on the board in the 4th when Sam Mele homers with Minoso on to make it 2-0.  New York gets one of those runs back in the 5th when Lazzeri scores on a Saltzgaver fielders choice, and they load the bases in the 6th but Pierce pitches out of the jam.  In the bottom of the 6th,  Bob Boyd smashes a grounder back at Ruffing--it ricochets off Red's shin and they get Boyd, but the leg is broken and Ruffing is out for the tournament.  That incident wakes up the Yankees, who immediately score 5 in the top of the 7th--including a Gehrig grand slam--but then Lazzeri ends the inning with an injury and he's out for 3 games.  With Johnny Broaca now on the mound for the Yanks, the Sox score a run when Fox singles home Carrasquel to narrow the NY lead to 6-3, but that's all the Sox can muster and a depleted NY team heads to the all-Yankees final with the 6-3 victory.


A matchup in the Final between two different eras of great Yankee teams from 1934 and 1955 featured rosters that included 12 Hall of Famers, although starters 1934 Johnny Murphy and 1955 Johnny Kucks were certainly not among them.  One HOF put the 1955 Yankees up in the top of the 1st when Mantle tripled in a run, but the '34 Yankees tie it in the 2nd when Crosetti doubles in Dickey--although they fail to capitalize further, leaving the bases loaded.  The 55s retake the lead in the 3rd when errors by Saltzgaver and Gehrig result in an unearned run, but Gehrig immediately atones by leading off the bottom of the inning with a solo HR, and its 2-2 after 3.  However, in the 4th Don Heffner, playing for the injured Lazzeri, is himself injured, and suddenly the 34s all-"2" DP combo becomes an all-"4" duo as Crosetti has to move to play second.  In the 6th, Combs misplays a Mantle single for the 4th error of the game for the 34s and two runs for the 55s, and then Combs atones with a 2-run triple, and a Red Rolfe sac fly puts the 34s ahead 5-4 after 6.  When Kucks walks Ruth to lead off the 7th, the 55s bring in Don Larsen to keep things in range, and the move looks like a stroke of genius when the next batter (Dickey) rolls a 5-9, which had been Kucks HR reading but is a groundout on Larsen.  However, the next batter, George Selkirk, rolls a 4-9--Larsen's HR result--and now the 34s lead 7-4.  In the 9th, Murphy walks two with one out and he has to face Berra and Skowron as the tying runs--and he retires them both to give the battered 1934 Yankees the 7-4 victory and the regional title--the first for Yankees from the pre-war era.



Interesting card of Regional #97:
  With 12 Hall of Fame players in the regional final, there were quite a few noteworthy players to choose from, but this guy was a one-man wrecking crew, with 3 homers in the round 1 game, a grand slam in round 2, and a game-tying HR in the regional final--totaling 5 HR and 10 RBI in the three games.  In 1934, Gehrig won the AL Triple Crown, he also led the league in both OBP and SLG, and of course he played every game--but he only finished 5th in the league MVP voting.  However, there can be no doubt that he was the MVP of Regional #97.

Thursday, April 15, 2021

SUPER-REGIONAL E:  With 768 teams now having competed in regional action, that is the equivalent of 12 NCAA March Madness tournaments of 64 teams; I'm calling these groups of 64 "super-regionals".  Years ago I played out the first four of these super-regionals, with an eclectic group of winners that included two greats and two shockers:  the 1953 Dodgers, 1948 Indians, 1975 Giants, and 1971 Padres.  So now it's time for Super-Regional E, a matchup of 8 regional winners (Regionals 33 through 40) from a pool of 64 teams that originally included eight different pennant-winners.  Of those, only one survives; among the mighty squads that were eliminated in this group were the infamous 1927 Yankees, as well as the 1920 Indians, 1964 Cards, and 1980 Royals.   Note that the first round of the super-regional is the 4th game for these teams, meaning it's time to see just how deep their starting rotation is with their #4 starter on the mound.  To me, the obvious choice to win is the lone remaining pennant winner, the great 1931 A's; the ELO ranks agree, although they predict a challenging semifinal matchup for the A's against the 1950 Red Sox.  However, all of these teams have proven they can come through when necessary and it would be dangerous to underestimate any of them.   



Round 4 action:  

The 1983 Giants were a 79-83 team (ELO rank 1143) but they won three 1-run games to claim Regional #33, with their most impressive win involving a 4-3 victory over the 1975 Reds and the Big Red Machine, with Jeff Leonard, Chili Davis, and Joel Youngblood providing most of the offense.  Their 4th-round opponent was a near-contemporary, the 89-73 1982 Braves (ELO rank 1027), the NL West winner who had perhaps the toughest path to a regional victory as they defeated two pennant winners that included the legendary 1927 Yankees as well as the 1920 Indians to capture Regional #34, with 2 homers and 6 RBI from Dale Murphy leading the charge.  Starting pitchers Rick Camp for the Braves and SF's Mark Davis looked like the #4 starters that they were, and I think the ELO ranks accurately reflected that the two teams were more evenly matched than their W-L records would suggest.  The Giants quickly scout out the weak spots on Camp's card in the 2nd, when Leonard misses a HR split on Camp's 5-9 but doubles and then scores when Jack Clark finds a SI** result on Camp.  In the 3rd, Joel Youngblood finds his own solid HR result for a 2-run blast and it's 3-0 Giants, and Fulton County Stadium is eerily quiet, although the fans make some noise in the 4th when Claudell Washington finds Davis's solid 4-4 HR result to make it 3-1.  When Darrell Evans nails Camp's 5-10 solid HR result in the 6th, the Braves turn in desperation to Gene Garber to try to keep the game within reach, but the Giants get to Garber in the 7th when Chili Davis races home on a Lemaster single and it's now 5-1 Giants.  In the bottom of the 8th, it's Terry Harper's turn to find Davis's solid 4-4 HR to narrow the gap to 5-2 and with Gary Lavelle burned, the Giants nervously eye Greg Minton in the pen.  They let Davis begin the bottom of the 9th, but when with one out Chambliss hits a liner to left that Leonard can't reach, Minton is throwing hard in the pen.  However, Washington makes it moot by hitting into a double play to end the Braves run and wrap up the Giants 5-2 win with a 4-hitter by Mark Davis.

Tim:  Walk this guy
For the 4th round matchup between the 1977 Royals (ELO rank 213) and the 1961 White Sox (ELO rank 864), I had to invite my longtime leaguemate Tim to roll on behalf of the Royals, as it was his favorite team from his childhood, and the White Sox of that era were mine, with Luis Aparicio being my favorite player as a kid.  So, Tim and I connect over Zoom and set our lineups for this grudge match; being round 4 we're down to the #4 starters, Billy Pierce (who allowed too many hits) against Marty Pattin (who allowed too many homers).  But these are two very good teams; the Royals went 102-60 to win the AL West but famously lost to the Yankees in the final game of the ALCS when Larry Gura and Mark Littell couldn't hold a 3-2  Royals lead entering the 9th inning.  The 1961 White Sox went 86-76, but were just two years removed from winning the AL pennant and they had uncharacteristic (for the Sox of that era) expansion-year power, with Roy Sievers, Al Smith, and Jim Landis all knocking more than 20 homers.  The Sox go down quietly in the top of the 1st, and in the bottom of the frame Pierce is looking shaky, as he loads up the bases with a Brett hit and a couple of walks, but escapes with no damage.  However, the Royals come through with two more hits in the 2nd, one an Amos Otis RBI single driving in Patek, and it's 1-0 Royals.   Pierce is raked for three more hits in the 3rd (two off his own card), Darrell Porter and John Mayberry (both long-time Trash players) drive in runs, and it's 3-0 Royals, and Pattin seems to be settling in nicely, tossing 6 shutout innings.  Things get a little more interesting when Jim Rivera finally leads off the top of the 7th with a solo HR, and then get a lot more interesting in the 8th when Pattin allows a leadoff double to Aparicio and Robinson singles him home. At that point, Tim has seen enough and summons Gura from the pen.  But Gura allows two hits, and Mingori has to come in to close out the inning, but the Royals' lead is narrowed to 3-2.  When Mingori allows a hit and a walk in the 9th to put the tying run in scoring position, Tim summons Littell from the bullpen, who promptly walks three consecutive Sox batters--the last two of them with the bases loaded.  Littell is yanked and Doug Bird ends the inning, but the Sox take a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the 9th.  An exhausted Pierce starts the inning, but he issues his 6th walk of the game to leadoff hitter Brett and then Nellie Fox boots a Hal McRae grounder, and it's time for Turk Lown to come to try to preserve the win.  Porter flies out, and the Royals bring in John Wathan to pinch hit--and he does his job, lacing a single into CF.  The 3rd base coach furiously motions Brett to go home with the tying run, and he's safe, and then sends McRae to third--but Lollar snaps a strike to Carey and McRae is out by a step.  Fox then commits his second error of the inning and the Royals have men on 1st and 3rd, but Lown gets Frank White to pop out and we head to extra innings.  In the 10th, Bird records two quick outs and then yields two singles to the bottom of the Sox lineup, but Aparicio flies out to end the threat.  The Royals begin their half of the inning with Patek pulling a hamstring trying to run out a grounder, and he's gone for at least the next few games; Lown then quickly dispatches Otis and Cowens and it's on to the 11th.  Fox leads off the inning with a single in an attempt to atone for his horrible fielding miscues in the 9th, and a Robinson groundout moves Fox to 2nd.  With powerful Roy Sievers up and 1st base open, Tim elects to pitch to Sievers and.....big mistake.  2-9 roll, and Sievers puts it into the fountains at Kauffman Stadium; the Sox take the lead 6-4.  A Landis single and Tim is looking down at a nearly empty bullpen, but Bird recovers and ends the inning without further incident.  So it's down to Lown and the heart of the Royals order:  Brett/McRae/Porter, but two quick groundouts and then there is no joy in Royalville as Darrell Porter has struck out.  Final score:  White Sox 6, Royals 4; the Sox move to the super-regional final four, and the Royals go home.

The 1931 A's won 107 games and the ELO ranking list them as the 25th best team of all time; they cruised through their regional outscoring their opposition 16-4 with Al Simmons knocking in 5 of those runs.  However, if this team had an Achilles heel, it was their #4 starter, and after much deliberation Connie Mack decided to go with Eddie Rommel for the start.  The 1972 Astros went 84-69 (ELO rank 836) and had an Astrodome-enhanced pitching staff coupled with a lineup boasting Wynn, Cedeno, Bob Watson, and Lee May, although unsung DH Norm Miller had been pivotal in the regional with 2 HR and 5 RBI.  Things don't start well for Houston starter Ken Forsch when Max Bishop walks, Cochrane singles him to 3rd, and then Jimmie Foxx crushes one into the depths of the 'dome to give the A's a 3-0 lead.   The Astros had never trailed in any of their regional games, and their hurdle got larger in the 4th when the A's rattle off another four runs, two on a Cochrane triple.  When Mule Haas leads off the 5th with a solo HR, the Astros try Fred Gladding on the mound to see if that can change their fortunes, and he does a fine job, throwing four hitless innings against the powerful A's.  Houston finally converts a run on a Cedeno single in the 8th, but the A's rake over Gladding's replacement, George Culver, for three more runs in the top of the 9th and the Astros face an 11-1 deficit going into the bottom of the 9th.  Rommel sets the Astros down in order, and the A's move on to round 5 in impressive fashion.

A super-regional Battle of the Soxes matched the 1950 Red Sox (ELO rank 86) against the 1978 White Sox (ELO rank 1708).  On cardstock the matchup looked lopsided:  Boston won 94 games and had a killer lineup, with 7 hitters batting over .300 (the lowest BA in the lineup:  Bobby Doerr at .294) and Doerr, Ted Williams, Walt Dropo and Vern Stephens all with over 25 HR.  In contrast, the White Sox lost 90 games and had a lackluster lineup that still managed to win three straight games against teams with much better records in their regional.  With Chicago throwing 16-game loser Ken Kravec against Boston's Chuck Stobbs and his 5.10 ERA, the fans at Fenway were expecting offensive fireworks, and they erupted quickly when in the top of the 1st Stobbs allows doubles to Garr, Soderholm and Nordhagen before he can record an out, and Chicago leads 4-0 before the Red Sox have swung a bat.  The White Sox add two more in the 3rd on a 2-run shot from Nordhagen off Stobb's card, but there may not be a worse bullpen than that of Boston's and it looks like Stobbs is in for the long haul.  When Ted Williams leads off the bottom of the 4th with a HR, Kravec is badly rattled and the Red Sox bat around to narrow the score to 6-5.  A Birdie Tebbetts single ties it in the 5th, and Chicago isn't wild about its bullpen options either, but when Kravec puts the first two men on the 6th they summon Lerrin LaGrow to try to slow the bleeding, and he sets Boston down in order--including a 5-4 roll that would have been a solid HR on Kravec's card.  Buoyed by LaGrow's success, the Sox get their first two men on in the 7th, but Nordhagen hits into a double play to end that threat.  Then Goodman leads off the bottom of the 7th with a HR off LaGrow's solid 6-10 HR result, and back-to-back doubles from Dom Dimaggio and Williams add two more runs, and it's 9-6 Boston and Stobbs need to just last two more innings to secure the win.  The Red Sox batter LaGrow for another 4 runs in the 8th, Stobbs sets Chicago down in order in the 9th, and the Red Sox move on with a 13-6 mauling of the Chisox.

Super-Regional Semifinals:

In setting up the round 5 matchup between the 1983 Giants against the 1961 White Sox, I discovered that in the distant past I had elected to start the Sox #4 starter, Ray Herbert, in the first round, presumably because they had an easy opponent and difficult projected later matches in the regional.  The downside to that strategy is that here in round 5 Herbert is matched against Fred Breining, the Giants #1 starter, and Sox closer Turk Lown was burnt in the previous round's extra inning thriller.  The White Sox score a run in the 1st and the 5th, both on RBI singles past the glove of the Giants' 2B-4 Joel Youngblood, and in the 7th Nellie Fox hits an improbable HR off Breining's card, so Gary Lavelle comes in from the pen to try to keep it close.  And the Giants come alive in the 8th, as Brenly leads off with a HR and Youngblood drives in Lemaster to make it 3-2, so the Sox bring in Russ Kemmerer to try to save the lead.  However, Jack Clark opens the top of the 9th with a 1-7 roll:  HR 1-19 DO....and rolls a 20 on the split.  However, the next batter, Chili Davis, singles off Kemmerer's card, Clark scores, and we enter the bottom of the 9th with a tie game.  With one out, Sox #9 hitter Andy Carey singles, Aparicio grounds him to 2nd, and it's up to Nellie Fox, with 2 RBI in the game already, to try to win the game.  The roll: 6-5 on Lavelle, DO 1-6/SI**, and the Sox get the walk-off win 4-3 to reach the Super-regional finals.

10 innings, no problem
The 1950 Red Sox had averaged 11 runs in their 4 games in this tournament, boasting one of the best top-to-bottom offensive lineups I've seen.  However, in round 5 they face 31-game winner Lefty Grove and the 1931 A's, who have a few hitters themselves, meaning that this matchup looked to be one of the most interesting in recent memory.  A Mickey Cochrane single drives in Bishop in the top of the 1st to give the A's a 1-0 lead, and they add another in the 5th when Todt doubles and Bishop singles him home.  But Boston starter Mel Parnell is keeping the Red Sox within range, and in the 6th they finally get to Grove, with doubles from Zarilla and Dropo tying the score at 2-2.   From there, both Grove and Parnell are in command and after 9 innings the score remains tied 2-2, with neither team eager to go to their bullpen with their #1 starters in.  So Parnell goes out to start the top of the 10th, and the A's rake him for 4 hits and 3 runs, only avoiding another when Cochrane is cut down trying to score on a Haas single.  Thus the A's are up 5-2, and Grove has one more inning in him by tournament rules:  he allows a Goodman single and a walk, and with two out it's Al Zarilla (.915 OPS) at the plate as the tying run and Ted Williams staring at Grove from the on-deck circle.  But Grove strikes out Zarilla, sealing the 5-2 A's win and putting them into the super-regional final, where they will attempt to be the 3rd Old-Timer team to win a super-regional in 5 tries.

Super-Regional E Final:

The excitement was palpable at Shibe Park for the Super-regional final between the 1931 A's and George Walberg against the 1961 White Sox and HOFer Early Wynn.  The A's had outscored their opposition in the first five rounds 29 to 7; the Sox margin was 23 to 14 with multiple close calls.  In the top of the 1st Walberg walks three to load the bases but the Sox can't push any runs across; in the bottom of the 3rd, Jimmy Dykes misses a HR 1-2/DO split by rolling a 3, and Wynn strands him at 2nd to keep the game a scoreless tie.  Al Simmons breaks the ice in the 4th with a solo HR, and the A's add another in the 5th when Dykes hits his second double of the game and Todt singles him in.  The Sox miss a chance to score when Floyd Robinson (1-14) is cut down at the plate, which seems to take the wind out of Wynn's sails as he allows four straight hits to open the 6th, and the A's move out to a 5-0 lead.  Al Simmons adds his second HR of the game in the 7th, a 2-run blast, to make it 7-0, and the clutch hitting that the Sox had displayed throughout the tournament is stymied by the excellent A's defense.  Walberg retires Aparicio in the 9th to seal a 7-hit shutout and the 7-0 win, and the 1931 A's stand alone as the sole survivors of 64-team Super-regional E.


Interesting card of Super-Regional E:  As the long-time Strat players on this forum probably know, the original Old-Timer teams came in a variety of colors and sizes before the modern perforated abominations took over.  Over the more than 50 years that I've been accumulating Strat cards, I've ended up with versions of those original die-cut Old-Timers that have blue ink, red ink, blue ink on yellow cards (a favorite of mine), but the VERY original Old-Timers were just the same as the then-current season cards--black ink on cream-colored cardstock.  That was the version that I used here to roll the 1931 A's to the Super-regional title.  As you can see from the condition of these cards, this wasn't Al's first rodeo--my buddies and I played the heck out of these Old-timers when we were kids, and it's nicely satisfying to take these guys out of the storage drawers, set that lineup once again, and watch them still be just as awesome as they were for us, a half-century ago.




Sunday, April 4, 2021

REGIONAL #96:  This regional marks an important waypoint in this tournament, wrapping up a third grouping of 256 teams that have played after this regional (768 teams in total thus far).   And it looks like a good one, with two pennant winners in the Royals and the Rockies, other contenders including another good Royals team from a different era as well as Pirates and Yankees squads that likely bring some weapons to the table.  My hunch was that the pitching of the 2015 Royals would carry them past the Rockies and that they'd handle the Yankees in the finals; the ELO rankings predicted the same teams in the finals, but the prorated score for the Yanks put them among the top 50 teams of all time and thus New York was the ELO favorite.  It was interesting to note that although the Rockies won the NL pennant in 2007, the ELO rankings ranked five AL teams as better than them.  

First round action:  

According to the ELO ranks, the 90-win pennant-winning 2007 Rockies team was the best squad in franchise history, with a power-packed lineup and good defense but limited by pitchers struggling to deal with the HR-friendly conditions that exist a mile above sea level.  In contrast, the 99-loss 1934 Reds finished last in the NL and were ranked as one of the 100 worst teams of all time, although they had a young nucleus of players like Ernie Lombardi, Paul Derringer, and Frank McCormick who would go on to win a pennant some years later.  Derringer, one of two 20-game losers on the Reds staff, got the task of attempting to keep the Rockies in check, and check he did, allowing only two hits and no runs through 7 innings.  In the meantime, the Reds climbed out to a 6-0 lead on two Chick Hafey homers and RBI singles from Pool and Piet, chasing 17-game winner Jeff Francis after only 4.1 innings in which he allowed 10 hits.   The Rockies finally knock three hits in the 8th, but coupled with a Derringer error it only amounts to one run with a rally-killing DP ending the threat.  Derringer retires the side in order in the 9th, and the Reds easily pull off the upset 6-1 win over a stunned Colorado team, with Derringer tossing a 5-hit complete game.

The 2015 Royals won 95 games, the AL, and the World Series with a solid if not spectacular lineup and some strong arms in the bullpen, although their starting pitching was not as good as I remembered it being.  However, it was still miles better than that of the 2000 Rays, who lost 92 games and had dreadful steroid-era pitching without the benefit of huge steroid-fueled power in their lineup.  The Royals started off auspiciously, with leadoff hitter Lorenzo Cain rolling Tampa starter Albie Lopez' HR result, but missing the 1-15 split and then getting stranded at second.  Cain hits another double in the 3rd with no out, but again gets stranded at second and it's beginning to look like the Royals are struggling to find a clutch hitter.  Finally, in the 5th inning the Royals score three, courtesy of two Tampa errors and a key Ben Zobrist single, and KC looks to their starter Chris Young to hold off the Rays long enough to get it to their bullpen.  However, a Felix Martinez triple and a Miguel Cairo double make it 3-1, and two Young walks load the bases with one out and the Royals are forced to turn to their killer closer, Wade Davis, to try to staunch the bleeding.  Davis comes through, recording a whiff and a popout, and it's still 3-1 KC after six, with the Royals hoping for some insurance runs so that they can pull Davis and preserve him for later rounds.  They add one in the 7th after the 4th Tampa error of the game, and promptly replace Davis with Kelvin Herrera and crossed fingers.  Herrera is torched for a solo HR by Jose Guillen in the bottom of the 9th, and the Rays turn to their PH extraordinaire Ozzie Timmons and his .707 SLG% to try to pull the game out, but Timmons whiffs and the Royals survive with a 4-2 win and move on.

Both the 1975 Royals and the 1967 Pirates struck me as good teams--the Royals won 91 games and were every bit as strong as the pennant-winners who played in the prior game, and although the Pirates only went 81-81, they had four .300 hitters in the lineup along with mashers like Stargell and Clendenon.  On paper the Royals looked to have the better starting pitching, but that wasn't evident early as the Pirates mauled Marty Pattin for 4 runs in the 1st (including a Stargell 3-run homer) and another 4 runs in the 2nd (courtesy of a Clemente grand slam), with Pattin leaving the game with a 1.1 IP, 7HA, 8RA pitching line.  The Royals get on the board against Tommie Sisk in the 5th when a George Brett fielders choice scores a run, but the Pirates match it in the 7th when Maury Wills walks, steals second, and Mazeroski doubles him home.  The Royals can't solve Sisk, who ends with a 6-hit CG and the Pirates coast into the semifinals with an impressive 9-1 win.

The 2019 Yankees won 103 games, but I was surprised to find that their ELO ranking would put them among the 50 best teams of all time--until I set their lineup.  With 9 players having a SLG% over .500 and a killer group in the bullpen, it seemed to me that their only weaknesses were rather mediocre starting pitching and a host of frightening injury results on their cards.  In contrast, the 82-80 1993 Mariners had exactly two weapons:  Ken Griffey Jr., and Randy Johnson.  Despite a great card, Johnson looked mortal when Gary Sanchez hits a solo blast in the 2nd and Gleybar Torres adds an RBI single in the 3rd.  However, the Mariners then find the weaknesses on Yankee starter James Paxton's card, with Rich Amaral finding Paxton's HR result for a 2-run shot in the bottom of the 3rd and Omar Vizquel finding it again for a solo shot in the 5th, and the Mariners lead 3-2.  When Paxton allows a single in the 6th the Yanks have seen enough and turn it over to their bullpen--and they do their job, but Johnson is shackling the Yanks.  The game enters the 9th with the M's still up 3-2; Johnson quickly retires two batters to begin the top of the 9th, and with the Mariners one out away from the upset, Brett Gardner hits a game-tying blast that leaves the Seattle crowd stunned.  Zack Britton retires the Mariners in order in the bottom of the frame and the game heads to extra innings.  Johnson stays in the game and sets down the Yanks in the 10th, and in the bottom of the 10th, another Tino Martinez error, a hit and a Britton walk loads the bases with one out for Griffey Jr.; and the Yanks summon their closer Aroldis Chapman to try to hang onto the game.  With the infield in, Griffey hits the gbA for the force play at the plate, and then Chapman strikes out Jay Buhner to send the game to the 11th.  Norm Charlton has to come in to relieve the exhausted Johnson, and Charlton grooves one to late-inning DH replacement Giancarlo Stanton; it's gone, and the Yanks lead 4-3.  Chapman shuts down the M's in order in the bottom of the 11th, and the Yanks survive a serious scare to move on to the semifinals.

The survivors:

The 1934 Reds had defeated a pennant winner in round one and had their sights on another in the semifinal in the form of the 2015 Royals, but that dream proved to be short-lived when the second Royal batter, Eric Hosmer, converted a HR 1-2 split off Reds' starter Bennie Frey's card, and Frey absolutely lost it.  Frey was mercifully pulled with one out in the second inning, after allowing 10 runs on 11 hits, and although some bad Reds bullpen pitchers did an admirable job for the remainder of the game, things were already far out of reach.  Gordon Slade was able to contribute a couple of RBI singles to narrow the gap slightly, but with the big lead KC starter Edinson Volquez was able to run on cruise control and the Royals coast to the 10-3 win.  The good news for the Royals was that the blowout enabled them to rest a bullpen that was taxed in the first round; the bad news was that DH Kendrys Morales was injured for 5 games, and the squad really doesn't have a bat on the bench that can provide a capable replacement.

The historical documents after 96 regionals
Despite being ELO favorites, the 2019 Yankees barely survived the 1st round and were now facing a more formidable opponent in the 1967 Pirates, with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound against Steve Blass (before he would go on to develop the disease that bears his name).  The Pirates had started fast in their 1st round game, and when Yank SS Gleyber Torres fielded a grounder from leadoff hitter Matty Alou and threw it into the Pirates dugout for a 2-base error, the groans from the fans could be heard in Staten Island.  However, Tanaka managed to strand Alou at 2nd, and then in the bottom of the 1st the Pirates return the favor when Manny Mota misplays a Brett Gardner fly to open a door that Blass can't close, with the Yanks scoring three runs--two on an Edwin Encarnacion HR.  The Pirates threaten in the 2nd but Mazeroski is cut down at the plate to end the inning.  Encarnacion's second 2-run HR in the 3rd makes it 5-0, and a Torres solo shot in the 7th pushes the lead to 6-0.  The Pirates can't figure out Tanaka, with at least four rolls on either side of his solid 4-9 HR reading, and Tanaka finishes with an 8-hit CG shutout, resting the depleted Yankee bullpen for a finals showdown against the Royals.

A milestone regional gets to wrap up with two very good squads, a World Champion 2015 Royals team against the AL runner-up 2019 Yanks.  Having played both teams for a couple of games, the Yankees were flat out impressive, an offensive juggernaut with a bullpen capable of bailing out suspect starting pitching.  The Royals were also coming into the game minus their DH Kendrys Morales; worthy of note, the Yankees had their own version of Kendrys that they would have been glad to loan the Royals, as the 2019 Morales seemed like he was about the 8th best DH on the powerful Yankees team.  The Yanks power is hinted at in the 1st when Urshela misses a HR split on Royals' starter Yordano Ventura's card, but he drives in Tauchman with the resulting double.  A solo shot from Gleyber Torres in the 2nd, another from Gary Sanchez in the 4th, and a third from Urshela in the 8th seems to provide Yanks starter Domingo German with all the support he needs.  However, when slap hitter Omar Infante finds German's solid HR result at 6-9 in the 6th inning, the Yanks turn it over to their bullpen, and Ottavino and Britton do the job to preserve the 4-1 victory and the regional win.  Despite their great history, this is only the 3rd Yankee team to win a regional, joining the 1960 and 1979 squads.


Interesting card of Regional #96:  I sort of hate to select a 2019 card for this feature because most people will be familiar with such recent seasons, but the 2019 Yanks did win the regional and it is only fitting to highlight one of their players.  However, rather than selecting one of the numerous imposing sluggers in the Yankee lineup, I picked a low IP starting pitcher who only made one appearance in the regional--in relief, as according to tournament rules he has too few IP to use as a starter but can be used in relief, and he tossed two important shutout innings in NY's 1st round extra-inning win.  Severino had won 19 games for the Yanks in 2018 at the age of 24, but like so many players on the Yankees, he battled various injuries in 2019 and didn't pitch at all until September--and afterwards missed all of 2020 following Tommy John surgery.  I highlight Severino because the primary weakness of this squad (aside from some frightening injury results) was their starting pitching, and I just wonder how many games the Yankees--with 103 wins as it was--would have won if everyone, including Severino, was healthy all year.  I was initially surprised to discover that the ELO ranks placed the 2019 Yanks among the 50 greatest teams of all time; after watching them charge through this regional, I think that if this Severino card had 212 IP rather than 12, the team might belong in the top 25.