Tuesday, November 17, 2020

 REGIONAL #80:  There were two pennant winning teams in Regional #80 that were almost 100 years apart:  the 1911 Giants and the 2002 Angels.   The bracket was laid out in an interesting manner, with the top half all 20th century teams, the bottom all 21st century squads.  Aside from the pennant winners, competitive teams abound; the '90 Giants had won the pennant the previous year; the 2012 Royals would win one in two years; the 1920 Red Sox were just entering the curse of trading the Babe, and when I pulled the 2018 Yanks out of the drawers, staring me in the face was a Ruthian card from Luke Voit that I noticed was DH-eligible under tournament rules.  Given the way that Mark McGwire smashed his way through Regional #77, I picked Voit to do the same for New York, but the only team that I don't think has a shot are the '64 Mets.  The ELO ratings aren't provided for 2018, so the Yanks aren't rated, but those rankings viewed the two pennants winners as two of the best 100 teams of all time, with the Giants expected to prevail.  However, deadball teams don't seem to last long in this tournament, so I liked the Yanks to win the region, which surprisingly that franchise has only done twice before.  

First round action

The 1920 Red Sox had recently traded away Babe Ruth, and had fallen to 5th place in the AL with only 72 wins, but they still had a solid rotation (e.g. Herb Pennock and Waite Hoyt, who would both shortly join the Babe) and HOFer Harry Hooper.  The 1964 Mets lost 109 games, with some bad fielding and few guys who could get on base, but had more power in their lineup than the still-deadball Red Sox which gave them a puncher's chance for the win.  However, they were punchless against Pennock, who threw a 6-hit complete game shutout aided by 3 double-plays.  The Red Sox got all they needed in the 2nd inning, when Tracy Stallard loaded up the bases with a couple of walks and then Boston catcher Mike Menosky blasted a 3-run triple.  Stallard only allowed 5 hits, but the Red Sox converted them into 6 runs and a 6-0 victory.  However, one of the best Boston hitters, CF Tim Hendryx, went down to injury and is lost for the entire regional, and the limited Red Sox offense will sorely miss his .328 average.

This first round matchup featured two Giants teams that were nearly a century and a continent apart.  The 1911 Giants of New York won 99 games and the NL, boasting solid batting averages, remarkable team speed, and a rotation capped by Christy Mathewson.  However, the 1990 Giants of San Francisco were no doormat, winning 85 games and having power in the meat of the lineup from Will Clark, Kevin Mitchell, and Matt Williams that the 1911 team could only dream about.  Nonetheless, SF jumped out to a quick lead in the top of the 1st using smallball--Brett Butler walked, stole second, and was driven in by DH Mike Anderson.  A Fred Snodgrass single tied it in the 3rd, but SF moved back on top in the 4th with a solo HR from Matt Williams.  Buck Herzog tied it in the 5th with a single, but in the 7th a Butler double put the 1990 team back on top, 3-2.  In the 8th, NY put runners on 1st and 3rd with one out, forcing SF to call upon Jeff Brantley in relief of an effective start from John Burkett. SF played for the double play, and got it off the X-chart courtesy of 2b-2 Robby Thompson.  Brantley then survived the 9th inning, and the 1990 Giants move on with the 3-2 upset of what supposedly was one of the 50 best teams of all time.

The 2002 Angels won 99 games, and the World Series from a wild card berth, and with their team offense, killer bullpen, and decent rotation for the era one could see why the ELO rankings put them in the top 100 teams of all time.  Their opponents, the 2011 Rockies, only won 73 games and had a shallow rotation, although their offensive numbers rivaled those of the Angels.  When Angels leadoff batter David Eckstein homered off Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin's card, it looked like it was going to be a long night for the Rockies.  It did turn out to be a long night, but not as expected.  Chacin settled down, and a 2-run homer by Jason Giambi put the Rockies up 2-1 in the 4th and a fielders choice by Carlos Gonzales added a run to the lead in the 5th.  However, in the 6th back-to-back doubles by the Angels narrowed the score to 3-2, and a Garret Anderson single tied the game in the bottom of the 7th, and the score remained tied to send the game into extra innings.  At that point, the Angels were confident that the depth of their bullpen would win out, and a parade of Shields, Donnelly, and Troy Percival held the Rockies in check until finally, in the bottom of the 12th, back to back doubles by Fullmer (his 3rd of the game) and Tim Salmon gave the Angels a walk-off 4-3 win.

Setting the lineup for the 100-win 2018 Yankees posed an interesting dilemma, as although I was determined to get Luke Voit's awesome card into the lineup, a confluence of tournament rules then forced Aaron Judge to have to come in off the bench to get into the game.  Their opponent, the 2012 Royals, may have lost 90 games, but aside from a terrible starting rotation, their combination of team speed and defense illustrated why they would win the pennant two years later.  The Royals demonstrated their aptitude immediately in the top of the 1st, when leadoff hitter Escobar singled, stole second, and was singled home by fellow AA-stealer Jarrod Dyson.  However, in the bottom of the inning Miguel Andujar answered, doubling in Voit to make it 1 to 1 after 1, but that was it for the Yanks.  KC starter Luis Mendoza survived into the 6th without allowing additional runs, and meanwhile the Royals offense continued to chip away run by run, with two more largely generated by the stolen base, running NY catcher Gary Sanchez ragged (a c-4, there was not much he could do about it) until Sanchez eventually was injured in the 7th, no doubt throwing his arm out.  It didn't matter by that time as the Yanks were unable to muster any offense against the Royals bullpen, and Kansas City ultimately sent the Yanks packing with a 5-1 upset win.

The survivors

The semifinal matchup between the 1920 Red Sox and 1990 Giants began with the game remaining scoreless through five innings with each team trying to feel out the weaknesses of the two swing starters on the mound (SF's Trevor Wilson and Boston's Allen Russell).  The Giants finally struck in the bottom of the 6th, scoring runs on a Brett Butler RBI fielder's choice, a steal of second, and a double by Will Clark.  When Wilson allowed a baserunner in the 7th, I felt the need to get him out because of a solid 5-10 HR result that was making me nervous, so of course my bullpen selection, Francisco Oliveras, immediately allows a split result HR off his card, and the game is tied 2-2.  However, Robby Thompson puts the Giants back in the lead with a solo HR in the bottom of the inning.  That lead is short-lived, as I pulled Oliveras in favor of Jeff Brantley, who had saved the first round game for the Giants, and Brantley managed to allow .228-hitting Cliff Brady to tie the game with an RBI single.  The bottom of the 8th saw Dave Anderson drive in Butler to regain the lead for the Giants, but after the Giants then loaded the bases Russell retired Gary Carter to limit the damage to 1 run.  In the top of the 9th, Brantley faced the top of the Boston order and the first two batters reached safely to bring up Sox HOFer Harry Hooper, but Hooper hits into the DP, Schang pops out, and the Giants head to the regional final with the 4-3 win.

The 2002 Angels, starting Ramon Ortiz, and the 2012 Royals, starting Jeremy Guthrie, were both nervous going into this semifinal matchup as both starters had a propensity to allow the longball.  Tim Salmon doubled in a run in the top of the 1st for the Angels, although a second (1-16) runner was cut down at the plate to end the inning.   In the bottom of the 5th, Alcides Escobar finally found Ortiz's solid HR at 5-9, and the game was tied.  Because tournament rules mandate that starting pitchers must go 5 innings or 5 runs, both teams yanked their starters for the 6th, with the Angels particularly confident in their deep bullpen.  In the 7th, Scott Spiezio doubled in a run for the Angels, but yet another 1-16 runner was cut down at the plate on the play to end that rally.  Brad Fullmer singled in a run against Greg Holland in the 8th, and the Angels led 3-1.  In the bottom of the 9th, Troy Percival came in for the Angels to close things out, but the Royal got two baserunners on with a walk and a squib hit, so Percival faced pinch-hitter Lorenzo Cain as the potential game-winning run.  Cain fanned, the Angels win it 3-1, and they move to the finals seeking only the second regional win (1989 being the lone example) for the Angels franchise.

Can't stop this
The 2002 Angels went into the regional final just wanting starter John Lackey to get through his requisite five innings against the 1990 Giants so that they would be able to turn the game over to their stellar bullpen, and when they went up 1-0 on a Brad Fullmer solo HR in the bottom of the 2nd they were off to a good start.  However, Lackey ran into trouble in the top of the 3rd, allowing four hits with Kevin Mitchell and Matt Williams turning two of those into RBI and a 2-1 SF lead.  Nonetheless, things seemed to be going according to script when the Angels scored two in the bottom of the 5th to grab a 3-2 lead that would enable them to put Lackey on a short leash.  Sure enough, Brett Butler doubled to start the 6th and Lackey was immediately pulled for Brendan Donnelly and his 2.17 ERA.  But, the Angels pen finally failed them, as Donnelly walked Anderson and then allow a triple to Will Clark and the score was now 4-3 Giants.  The Angels pen wouldn't allow another hit, but it was too late, as Giants starter Scott Garrelts (with closer Jeff Brantley unavailable after two previous appearances) was able to finish what he started, throwing a 6-hitter to clinch the 4-3 win and the regional--the 7th for this venerable franchise.  Brett Butler was selected as regional MVP, demonstrating a remarkable knack for getting on and scoring from his leadoff position.

 

A promising start
Interesting card of Regional #80:  Although Luke Voit's Ruthian card (.689 SLG) from the 2018 Yanks was tempting as a selection, his team went down in the first round and because it was a recent release, many are probably already familiar with his card.  Instead, I decided on reliever Francisco Rodriguez from the 2002 Angels, a card which is much more obscure as an extra player.  F-Rod's card is interesting for a number of reasons.  First, how many times do you see a pitcher receive a card with 6 IP (actually, 5.2)?  Second, these were F-Rod's first innings in the majors, not even qualifying as a rookie with his Sept. 18th call-up.  Now, most of the time these low AB/IP wonder-cards resulting from late season call-ups never materialize into anything, but F-Rod became one of the best relievers in baseball, leading the league in saves 3 times and ending his career with 437 saves, good for 4th in baseball history.  Thus, despite the miniscule IP, this card was actually quite reflective of the pitcher he would turn out to be.  Finally, consider that SO to IP ratio, good for a SO per 9 inning rate of 20.6--yes, that's "averaging" 21 strikeouts for a nine inning game.  As part of a great bullpen for the 2002 Angels, Rodriguez made two brief but flawless appearances in the regional, including striking out the side in the top of the 9th in the finals, albeit to no avail for the Angels.



                                   

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

REGIONAL #79: This regional had some interesting squads but no pennant winners. The '68 Cubs and '73 Orioles had a chance to reprise the finals of Regional #25, where the '69 Cubs defeated the '72 Orioles, although I didn't think either of the current regional versions were as good as the teams that met earlier. The '76 Tigers, of course, featured The Bird, the 2003 Cardinals were just a season off from the NL pennant, and the '91 Expos would try to win Montreal's first regional. My guess was a Cardinals/Expos final, with the Cards prevailing.  

First round action: 

The 1973 Orioles won 97 games and the AL East, and they had Cy Young award winner Jim Palmer on the mound; the 1949 Reds lost 92 games and had little to brag about, with a young Ted Kluszewski having his worst power year (8 HR?) as a regular. However, the Orioles displayed all the characteristics of a favorite looking to get beaten: leaving runners in scoring position, hitting into double plays, Bumbry nailed twice stealing second, and Belanger (ss-1) making an error that gave the Reds a 2-1 lead in the 6th. However, in the bottom of the 6th the Orioles started playing like division winners, with Belanger contributing a 2-run double to atone for his error, and ultimately the Orioles prevailed with a 5-3 victory, with Palmer tossing a 5-hit complete game for the win. 

The 2003 Cardinals won 85 games with a monster year from Albert Pujols and a strong supporting cast, but a suspect starting rotation. However, the last-place, 101-loss 1955 Senators were suspect everywhere and were mainly looking at real estate in the Twin Cities area. The matchup turned out pretty much as expected; the Cards put on an offensive clinic, with a grand slam by Jim Edmonds, a 4-hit performance from Scott Rolen that included two doubles and a triple, and pairs of RBI from Pujols, JD Drew, and Bo Hart. In the meantime, St. Louis starter Woody Williams scattered 7 hits, with an Eddie Yost homer the sole blemish, although he did make things interesting by walking three straight batters to start the bottom of the 9th. True to form, the Senators' Mickey Vernon promptly hit into a triple play, sending the Cards off with a blowout 13-1 win. 

The 1976 Tigers were primarily known for their rookie pitcher Mark "The Bird" Fidrych, who captured the imagination of the fans while winning 19 games and Rookie of the Year honors. It is not as well remembered that the Tigers were otherwise a pretty bad team, finishing next to last in the AL East winning only 74 games. Fortunately for them, their first round opponent was even worse, the 1960 Cubs who went 60-94 to finish next to last in the NL, with little to root for aside from Ernie Banks. The first score was in the 5th when Ron Leflore recorded his 2nd of 3 steals of second, and Rusty Staub drove him in for a 1-0 Tiger lead. In the 7th, Chicago DH Frank Thomas (misleading, isn't that?) hits a 2-run homer to put the Cubs up, but in the bottom of the inning the Tigers score three, Alex Johnson delivering a 2-run double. Fidrych allows three straight hits to start the 9th, and can't hold the lead as the Cubs tie it at 4-4, and the game goes to extra innings. Finally, in the bottom of the 11th, Mickey Stanley singles off Cubs reliever Don Elston, Veryzer sacrifices him to 2nd, and with 2 out Alex Johnson laces a hit to score Stanley and give the Tigers (and reliever John Hiller) the 5-4 walk-off victory. 

The 1968 Cubs won 84 games in finishing 3rd in the NL, while the 1991 Expos lost 90 games and finished last in the NL East. The "ELO" rankings put the Cubs (the 1058th best team of all time) well ahead of the Expos (#1586) but I liked the Montreal speed, hitting, and a strong Dennis Martinez on the mound. The Expos moved out to a 1-0 lead on a Tim Wallach solo HR in the 2nd, and a 2-run double by Spike Owen pushed it to 3-0 Montreal in the 4th. Meanwhile, Martinez had a perfect game going into the 7th inning, when a mistake to Adolpho Phillips made the seats at the Stade Olympique to make it 3-1. However, that was it for the Cubs--Martinez ended up with a one-hitter and just one BB allowed, and that erased in a double-play, so he pitched to just 28 batters. 20-game winner Fergie Jenkins tossed a 4-hit complete game but that wasn't good enough, and Les Expos move on with a 3-1 win. 

The survivors: 

The ELO rankings put the 1973 Orioles as the 165th best team of all time, considerably better than the 2003 Cards at #598, but although Baltimore had a strong starting rotation, the Cardinals lineup included far more weapons as evidenced by the 13 runs they scored in the first round. The Orioles opened things up in the 5th with solo HRs by Earl Williams and Bobby Grich, both off STL starter Matt Morris's card, but the Cards retaliated with 3 runs off Cuellar in the bottom of the inning. In the 7th, the Cardinals defense imploded, with four errors (two by ss-2 Renteria) and when the dust clears STL reliever Kiki Calero allows 5 unearned runs for a 7-3 Baltimore lead. The Cards strike back with a run in the 7th and 2 in the 8th, which ends with Bo Hart being nailed trying to score from 2nd with the tying run. Meanwhile, Cards closer Jason Isringhausen is handling the O's, and in the 9th the Cards put runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out courtesy of a Belanger (ss-1) error and a RF X-chart double. That brings up Jim Edmonds to face Baltimore closer Grant Jackson, and with the infield in Edmonds rolls a 2-2: gbA++ plus injury. Both runs score, and presumably Edmonds was hurt in the post-game celebration of the 8-7 win, although he should be available for the finals. 

Although the 1976 Tigers survived the first round with The Bird on the mound, getting any further was going to be a challenge; the ELO ratings ranked them as the worst team in the AL that season, WITH Fidrych. Even so, their opponent, the 1991 Expos, still lost more games although the ELO ratings ranked them higher than the Tigers. The Tigers did jump out to a commanding 4-0 lead in the 3rd, rocking Montreal starter Chris Nabholz for six hits, but the Expos put up a run in the bottom of the inning and another in the 4th made it 4-2. In the 6th, Tigers starter Dave Roberts lost his stuff, and the Expos kept knocking hit after hit until pinch hitter Bret Barberie and his .353 average knocked in the go-ahead run off Tigers closer Hiller to make it 5-4 Expos. An error and a double in the 8th chased Nabholz, but Expos closer Jeff Fassero came in to squelch the rally and held on to put the Expos in the finals with a 5-4 win--a rare instance where I was actually correct in predicting the teams in the finals! 

The 1991 Expos were the 6th representative of that franchise to reach the regional semifinals, but no Expos team had ever won a regional, and the 90-loss 1991 version seemed like an unlikely candidate to be the first. Their opponent, a much higher ranked 2003 Cardinals team, had lost J.D. Drew to injury, although Jim Edmonds was ready to play after his walk-off injury in the semifinals. The weak St. Louis starting rotation also was in play, with Garrett Stephenson (7-13, 4.59 ERA) being the Cards best option. The Expos exploited that weakness quickly, with Marquis Grissom blasting a 2-run homer off Stephenson's card in the bottom of the first. A Tim Wallach squib hit made it 3-0 in the 3rd, and although Tino Martinez doubled to put the Cardinals on the board in the 4th, Expos catcher Gil Reyes singled home a run in the bottom of the inning to make it 4-1. In the 5th, Larry Walker hit the second 2-run homer of the game off Stephenson's card, sending him to the showers and putting Cal Eldred on the mound, but it was too late. Mark Gardner tossed a complete game 6-hitter for the Expos, and the joyous if sparse Stade Olympique crowd celebrated the first Expos regional win with a 6-1 victory.

Interesting card of the regional:

For this feature, I thought about presenting The Bird, but he didn't pitch that well and his team didn't get that far, so I decided to go with this one, Mr. Bret Barberie.  He presented an interesting dilemma:  a killer offensive card, terrible at defense, but DH eligible under tournament rules (minimum 100 ABs).  However, I also had the option of upgrading LF defense by putting in strong fielding (and good-hitting, albeit not quite Barberie) Dave Martinez and moving Ivan Calderon to DH.  I elected to go with the fielding and use Barberie to pinch hit or to replace an unexpectedly weak-hitting Andres Galarraga after the 5th inning if the Expos fell behind.  My decision seemed to work, as the underdog Expos won the regional and Barberie had the game-winning hit as a pinch hitter in the second round.  However, another interesting aspect of the Barberie card is something common to all 1991 cards that made them unique in the history of Strat-o-matic cards--can you spot what that is? 


Tuesday, November 3, 2020

 RANKING THE TEAMS:  THE "ELO" APPROACH

I recently ran across I just ran across this interesting "ELO" ranking of every MLB team between 1903 and 2015, a total of 2,374 teams:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-mlb-teams-of-all-time-according-to-elo/

This seems like a useful means of trying to determine who might be favored in the tournament matchups, although my informal appraisal of teams doesn't always match up that well with the "ELO" evaluation.  Out of curiosity, I checked their rankings against the results of my recently completed single-elimination regional #78. Of the seven regional games, they predicted the winner four times; however, the top two ranked teams of the eight involved (the 2010 Phils at number 182 and the 1959 Braves at #424) both lost in the first round!  At any rate, I will probably be making references to these ELO rankings in later posts, so if anyone wants to check out the source, just follow the above link.

Sorry, not eligible!
By the way, they consider the 1939 Yankees the top-ranked team of all time.  There is no carded version of that team in Stratomatic (at least not yet), so it doesn't look like they will win this tournament!   The rankings had the 1906 Cubs ranked second; they lost in the first round, getting shut out by the 1940 Reds 6-0.  Not too impressed here.



Monday, November 2, 2020

 REGIONAL #78:   This regional had no pennant winners, but at a quick glance it seemed that all of the teams in the bottom half of the bracket were within three years of a pennant, while only one squad (the '69 A's) could make that claim among the top half teams.   So I guessed it would be those A's, looking for a second regional in a row for that franchise, against the survivor of the tough matchups in the lower half in the finals.   I had no clue who that will be, but whoever it is, I thought that survivor would win the regional.

First round action:

The 1924 A's only won 71 games, but the nucleus of their later great teams was beginning to form here--Al Simmons, Bing Miller, Jimmie Dykes, and Eddie Rommel tapped as the starter.  In contrast, the 2003 Twins won 90 games and the AL Central, and although they didn't sport any Hall of Famers, they did have the formidable Johan Santana on the mound.   Things got off to a fast start in the bottom of the 1st when leadoff hitter Jacque Jones blasted a homer, but Rommel largely settled down, although the Twins scored on a Rivas sac fly in the 4th and a Cory Koskie RBI single in the 7th.   The A's finally got on the scoreboard in the 8th to make it 3-1, but the rally against a tiring Santana was killed by a gbA from Bing Miller.  Santana stuck it out for the 9th in an effort to preserve the bullpen for later rounds, but a walk and a hit put Miller up to bat as the go-ahead run;  Santana held on, Miller popped out, and the Twins move on with a 3-1 win.

The 1969 A's were on their way towards greatness, winning 88 games and finishing second in the AL West; the 1941 Cubs were receding from their 1930s greatness, but tapped Bill Lee to start to try to recapture those glory days.  But the most evident factor in this game was my terrible managing skills.  After a Babe Dahlgren solo shot put the Cubs up 1-0 early in the game, Reggie Jackson doubled on a missed HR split and the A's led 2-1 entering the bottom of the 8th.  Catfish Hunter was throwing a 3-hitter but he had a solid 5-5 HR that was making me nervous, and I was eyeing reliever Jim Roland, who had some control issues but no hits other than singles on his card.  However, I decided to stick with Hunter, and of course the first hitter for the Cubs, Lou Stringer: 5-5 roll.  Game tied, it goes to extra innings.   Lee is doing well and I leave him in for the 10th, his last inning of eligibility.  Lee retires the first two batters in order, but walks Rick Monday to bring up the guy the Cubs did not want to see this inning:  Reggie Jackson.  Decision time again:  intentional walk or no?  I decide...pitch to him.  Boom, 2-8 roll, solid HR.  Bando then goes back to back, and the shell-shocked Cubs go down in order in the bottom of the inning to Roland.  Final score, A's 5-2, 10 innings.

This first round matchup involved two good teams that each made the postseason.  The 2010 Phillies won 97 games and the NL East, and represented a nicely balanced combination of power, defense, speed, and pitching.   Their opponents, the 2013 Indians, won 92 games and earned a wild card berth, but didn't seem to me to be nearly as solid top to bottom as the Phils, and facing 20-game winner Roy Halladay on the mound I didn't like Cleveland's chances.  The Indians jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the 2nd on a Michael Bourn single; Carlos Ruiz did the same for the Phils in the 3rd but Carlos Santana's double in the bottom of the inning put Cleveland back up, 2-1.  Inning after inning, the Phils would get runners into scoring position but Indians starter Justin Masterson kept them stranded.  In the bottom of the 7th, Cleveland put men on first and third with two out, and I decided to bring in Brad Lidge, even though I was actually at the playoff game where Albert Pujols crushed a homer off Lidge that may still not have come down.  Sure enough, the first batter up, defensive replacement Yan Gomes, rolls the HR on Lidge's card, and in the 8th a 2-base error by Jimmy Rollins (the third of the game for the Phils, a squad of all 2s and 1s) scores two more and adds to the lead.  Final score, Cleveland 8, Philadelphia 1.

The 1959 Braves won 86 games as the runner-up in the NL; only two years after their '57 pennant, the middle of their lineup still boasted Aaron, Mathews, and Adcock and they had two 20-game winners in Spahn and Burdette to count on. The 2014 Astros lost 92 games, and although they had the seeds of a pennant winner in Altuve, Springer, and Keuchel, they had little else.  So, it was a bit of a surprise that after 9 innings, the score was knotted at 3-3, with homers by Springer and Mathews providing much of the scoring.  The Braves loaded the bases in the bottom of the 10th, but reliever Tony Sipp ended the threat, and neither team could score until the 14th, when the Astros drilled three extra-base hits off Milwaukee reliever Bob Rush's card, and the Braves had no answer as the Astros score the 5-3 upset.  The Braves displayed the syndrome that kills a lot of favorites--the tendency to strand runners in scoring position and to hit into double-plays, as they could only convert their 16 hits into 3 runs.

The survivors:

Neither the 2003 Twins nor the 1969 A's demonstrated much offense in their first round matchups (at least in regulation innings), and their semifinal matchup looked similar, with both Blue Moon Odom and Kenny Rogers holding the bats in check.  RBI singles from Shannon Stewart, Torii Hunter, and Phil Roof had the score at 2-1 Twins entering the 7th.  The A's had two hits and a walk to knock out Rogers, but in the middle of that rally AJ Pierzyski nailed Campaneris in a stolen base attempt and Latroy Hawkins came in to squelch the rally.  Things remained unchanged until the bottom of the 9th, when two Twins errors (both "2" fielders) put runners on 1st and 2nd with one out and Reggie Jackson at the plate.  Jackson singled, pinch runner Jose Tartabull (1-15) headed for home--out at the plate.  Twins closer Eddie Guardado then fanned Sal Bando for the final out, and the Twins head to the finals with a 2-1 win.

Two homers, no guitar solos
A wild semifinal game between contemporaries, the 2013 Indians and the 2014 Astros, had some unlikely heroes.  The Indians staked themselves to a 4-2 lead heading into the 9th inning, courtesy of 2 homers from non-guitarist Carlos Santana, and the Astros were down to their last batter with two out in the bottom of the 9th.  Jake Marisnick, in for the injured Dexter Fowler, delivered a two-run homer to tie the game and send it into extra innings, a familiar spot for the Astros who took 14 innings to win their first round game.  Astro's starter Collin McHugh stuck it out for the 10th, as he had only allowed 6 hits--albeit including the two blasts from Santana, now out of the game for a defensive replacement.  However, the Indians immediately reeled off four runs, two from a Nick Swisher double, and the Indians led 8-4 heading into the bottom of the 10th.  When Zack McAllister loaded the bases with one out, the Indians turned to Brian Shaw, who promptly walked in a run and then allowed a 2-run single to Marwin Gonzalez to narrow the score to 8-7.  Another walk loaded the bases for...you guessed it, Jake Marisnick again.   After some agonizing, I decided to play the infield back looking for the double play, as Marisnick's 3-column was pretty loaded with gbAs.   The roll...3-10, gbA, game over; the Indians move on to the finals, barely hanging on to an 8-7 win.

The finals matchup thus featured two 90-game winners that reached the finals in very different ways; the 2013 Indians with late-inning offensive bursts, and the 2003 Twins squeaking by in low scoring pitching duels, with the Indians outscoring the Twins 16-5 in the initial rounds.  The Twins took a 1-0 lead in the 3rd when Asdrubal Cabrera (ss-2) made two consecutive errors for the Indians, but the Indians had a burst in the 5th scoring four runs on five singles, chasing Twins starter Kyle Lohse.  Meanwhile, Indians starter Ubaldo Jimenez is cruising, striking out 10 in 8 1/3 innings, aided by a key Cabrera X-chart DP in the 8th.  However, in the 9th the Twins mount a rally, courtesy of some serious pinch hitting (e.g., Mike Ryan's .754 SLG%), and the Indians turn the ball over to Brian Shaw.  Pierzynski steps to the plate as the go-ahead run for the Twins, but Shaw induces the groundout, earning his second save in a row and the Indians earn the regional title with a 4-2 win.  A wild card team in real life, the 2013 Indians join six other Tribe teams as regional winners in this tournament, tying them with the Reds for the most successful franchise.


Thursday, October 22, 2020

REGIONAL #77:  Like the previous regional, the draw for Regional #77 included one pennant winner, and also as previously, it was a Red Sox team from this century:  the infamous 2004 Red Sox, the first team in that franchise to win the World Series after an 86-year drought.  The Red Sox were the first team in history to come back from a 3 game deficit in the postseason (against the Yankees), so presumably they should be good in this win-or-die format, but after their 2013 WS Champ cousins were easily eliminated in the first round of the last regional by a bad team, I'm not putting any money on 2004 Boston.   There are plenty of good old-school teams in this regional with some Hall of Fame players, with versions of the Reds, Giants, Brewers a few years away from pennant wins.  I'll predict an all-1959 finals, with the Reds upsetting Boston in the first round and the Giants taking the top half of the bracket, with the Giants managing to stop the Reds from a second regional win in a row.

First round action:

The 1962 Astros/Colt 45s were an expansion team made up of castoffs and rejects and lost 96 games, but they did somehow manage to finish ahead of the Cubs and their fellow terrible expansion squad, the Mets.  They faced the 1996 A's, who lost 84 games themselves despite a godlike card from Mark McGwire and a classic steroid-era lineup--and rotation.  In a somewhat backwards arrangement, with little offense the Colts were hoping to roll on A's starter Ariel Prieto's card, while the A's wanted to avoid the card of 20-game loser Dick Farrell.  The Colts did find the landmines on Prieto's card quickly, jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the top of the 1st, although a McGwire fielders choice made it 2-1 in the bottom of the inning.   A Bob Lillis double made it 3-1 in the 3rd, but then the steroids kicked in.  A 2-run HR by McGwire in the 5th, a 3-run shot by Berroa in the 7th, and then a second HR by McGwire, this one for 3 runs, in the 8th, and the Colts were out of bullets.  Final score:  12-3 Oakland, and it could have been worse if Mike Bordick hadn't hit into a triple play in the 6th.

The next first round game was a matchup of two teams that were both 3 years removed from a pennant.  Setting the lineup for the 1959 Giants, who won 83 games to finish third in the NL, I was thinking that this team was almost as good as the 1962 pennant winners, while the 1985 Brewers won only 71 games in a longer season and looked nowhere near the quality of the '82 Brew Crew.   However, looks can be deceiving.  The Giants jumped out to a quick lead in the top of the 1st on a Willie Mays 2-run homer, but the Brewers tied it up in the 3rd when a Cepeda error unsettled SF starter Sam Jones, who promptly walked three in a row and then allowed a squib single to Riles.  A 2-run single by Jim Davenport put the Giants up 4-2 in the 6th, but Riles doubled home a run in the 8th to narrow the gap to 4-3.   The Giants went down in order in the top of the 9th, and in the bottom the Giants had Stu Miller warming up but stuck with Jones, who had regained control after his earlier issues.  After a popout, Brewers pinch hitter and recent HOF inductee Ted Simmons rolled a HR 1-7/DO, missing the split with an 8.  Jones then faced the top of the order--two more HOFers in a row, Molitor and Yount, with the tying run in scoring position.  But, Jones dispatched with both HOFers, earning a tough 4-3 victory for the Giants.

A faceoff between two 8th place 60's AL teams, the 76-win 1962 Red Sox and the 92-loss 1965 Senators, got even worse when injuries decimated the already weak lineups of both squads.  The Red Sox lost starter Earl Wilson after 2 innings, and leading hitter Pete Runnels in the 6th, while the Senators lost the big bat of Frank Howard for 2 games in his first at-bat.  Neither depleted lineup could muster much offense, with the Senators eventually ending on top with a 2-1 win with Pete Richert tossing a 6-hitter, one a solo HR to Frank Malzone in the first inning.  Without Hondo, it's difficult to imagine this Senators team progressing much farther in the bracket.

The 2004 Red Sox recorded 98 wins and a WS championship from a wild card berth, and despite the flop of the 2013 team in the previous regional, on cardstock this team had to be considered regional favorites.  Their opponent, the 1959 Reds, were not at all the same team as the '61 Reds that won the NL, aside from Frank Robinson, as they only won 74 games to finish in the second division.  The Pedro Martinez vs. Don Newcombe pitching matchup looked like a good one, but the Reds showed early that they weren't intimidated by Pedro, with Bell singling home a run in the 3rd, and Roy McMillan hitting a 2-run HR off Martinez's card in the 4th.  Jason Varitek returned the favor with a solo HR off Newcombe's card in the bottom of the 4th to make it 4-1.  However, when McMillan hit yet another HR off Martinez's card in the 6th, it was time for emergency measures for the Sox, and they put in Scott Williamson in relief, with no hits on his card.  That wasn't entirely effective, either, as Frank Robinson smacked a 2-run HR in the 8th, and a Pinson double added an insurance run off Keith Foulke in the 9th while Newk was cruising.  Final score:  7-1 Reds, Newcombe with a 6 hitter, and another Red Sox champion is embarrassed in the first round.

The survivors:

A semifinal matchup by the Bay between the 1996 A's and the 1959 Giants got off to a quick start when Scott Brosius homered off Jack Sanford's card on the first roll of the game, and after a walk Sanford grooved one to Mark McGwire and the A's had a 3-0 lead before the Giants could record an out.   In the second inning, Brosius added a 2-run HR off his card this time, and the A's looked in control.  However, this A's team had dreadful starting pitching, and starter John Wasdin was a disaster just waiting to happen.  Jim Davenport punched a run across in the 5th, and he and Cepeda did likewise in the 6th to narrow the lead to 5-3 and send Wasdin to the showers.  With Sanford shutting down the A's with no hits past the 4th, Oakland had to turn to their relief tandem of Groom and Taylor, who had bailed out the team in the first round.   And they did so again, shutting down the Giants to save the game, including retiring Willie Mays as the go-ahead run in the 8th inning.  The 5-3 win gives the A's a shot at their 4th regional win (1931, 1957, 1989) but they enter the finals with the back half of a bad starting rotation and their only decent relievers depleted after being used in consecutive games.

MVP, roid warrior
Facing Jim Brosnan and the 1959 Reds without their main offensive weapon Frank Howard, the 1965 Senators could only muster 5 hits against Brosnan.  However, one of those hits was a 3-run homer by Howard's replacement, Jim King, and that was enough to give the unlikely Senators a 3-1 win and a berth in the regional finals.  Mike McCormick was sharp for the 'Nats, scattering seven hits (three by Ed Bailey), and Washington will get big Frank back for the finals against the A's, where they hope to join the '67 Senators as the sole representatives of that team name to win a regional.

The regional finals thus involved an unlikely pairing of flawed, under .500 teams, neither of which could be very excited about the Carlos Reyes vs. Howie Koplitz pitching matchup.  But, in the end it came down to the fact that one team had Mark McGwire and the other one didn't; McGwire hit two homers, driving in 3, and Mike Bordick added two RBI while Steinbach hit a solo HR to give the 1996 A's additional insurance against the 1965 Senators.  Reyes was quite effective until the 7th, when he walked the bases loaded, but with their top relievers burnt the A's had to turn to Jim Corsi, who was good enough to hang onto the save and bring home the 6-2 regional win for the A's.  McGwire was the obvious choice for regional MVP, with five homers and 11 RBI in the three games.

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

REGIONAL #76:  This group boasts one pennant winner, the 2013 Red Sox, but there are some other possible contenders lurking here.  The '82 Royals were hoping to duplicate regional wins by the '81 and '84 Royals, suggesting that they are going to be a tough out.   The 1953 Phillies might still have a few of the Whiz Kids still around, while the '83 Expos were hoping to be the first team to score a regional for that franchise. The 2019 Padres try to prove that their 2020 success wasn't a pandemic-induced fluke, and the 1994 Angels try to follow up on the success of the '89 team in Regional #74.  Even so, I'd bet on the Red Sox here, with a win over the Royals in the finals.

First round action:

Setting the lineups for the first round matchup between the division-winning 97-win 2012 Reds and the 1994 Angels, who went 47-68 in that strike-shortened season, gave me a bit of deja vu.  Part of it came because the 2013 version of these Reds reached the finals of Regional #59 (losing to the 2003 Rockies), and part of it was because this would be Chuck Finley's 4th start for the Angels in the past 14 regionals.  It turned out to be a tight one, with five lead changes and both Finley and Johnny Cueto driven out of the game in the 8th.  Ultimately, the favored Reds prevailed in an unlikely manner, as .206 hitting Wilson Valdez, subbing for an injured (for 7 games) Scott Rolen, hit a sac fly in the 8th that put the Reds up 6-5.  The Reds then called upon superstar reliever Aroldis Chapman, with nary a hit on his card.  Chapman struck out the first two batters he faced but Chad Curtis then rolled--and missed--a HR 1-6 DO split, and Chapman retired Harold Reynolds to strand Curtis at second and preserve the win.

The 2013 Red Sox won 97 games, the AL pennant, and the World Series, and were matched against the 2019 Padres, who lost 92 games but boasted a promising rookie named Fernando Tatis Jr.  On cardstock, the matchup didn't look very competitive but that's why you roll the dice, and the dice didn't roll well for the Red Sox.  By the 3rd inning, the BoSox were down 5-0 with alliterative Padre home runs from Margot, Myers, and Machado (all of their cards, as Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz didn't allow any on his card).  Boston could do nothing in response, hitting into four rally-killing double-plays over the course of the game, and by the time reliever Koji Uehara made his appearance in the 6th the game was out of hand.  Padre starter Chris Paddack scattered 8 hits, aided by the gbA's, and earned the complete game 6-1 win for the Padres as yet another pennant winner goes down in the first round.

The 1953 Phillies won 83 games and finished 3rd in the NL, but it was hard to see how aside from Robin Roberts and his 23 wins.  The 1988 Astros won 82 games in a longer season, but had a strong Astrodome-influenced pitching staff, probably more offense than the Phillies could muster, and the type of team speed that promised to give weak-armed Phillies catcher Smokey Burgess fits.  The Astros staked an early 2-0 lead and then erupted against Roberts in the 5th, with a two-run Puhl double followed by a two-run Glenn Davis homer making it 6-0.  Astros starter Mike Scott made just one mistake, allowing a solo HR to Phils SS Ted Kazanski (not to be confused with the Unabomber), and Scott recorded the 6-hit CG and a 6-1 victory for the Astros.  Note:  In his defense, Burgess did throw out two of four stolen base attempts by the Astros.

A solid, 90-win 1982 Royals team faced a decent squad of a similar vintage, the 82-win 1983 Expos who sported a AAA stealing season from LF Tim Raines.  Les Expos jumped out to a 1-0 lead on a Raines solo HR in the 3rd, and Raines added an RBI single in the 4th to make it 2-0, and Montreal starter Charlie Lea was cruising.  In the 8th, the Royals threatened but pinch runner Cesar Geronimo (1-16) got cut down at the plate to end the inning.  The Expos responded in the bottom of the 8th by sending Vida Blue to the showers with a quick run, and then Dan Quisenberry came in and threw gasoline on the fire.  When the smoke cleared, it was 6-0 Expos, and that's how it ended, with Lea pitching a 5-hit shutout to keep the hope alive for a first Expos regional title.

The survivors:

The 2019 Padres handled a World Series champion easily in the first round, but a division winner in the 2012 Reds proved too much to manage, as the Padres could only knock 3 hits against Mat Latos while the Reds took advantage of poor control by San Diego pitchers (7 walks, 4 in the 6th inning).  Xavier Paul, playing at DH as an injury replacement for Scott Rolen, had three hits and the Reds coast to a 5-1 win and a spot in the regional finals, where they seek a record 7th regional win for the franchise.

The second semifinal started auspiciously for the 1983 Expos when the leadoff batter for the 1988 Astros, CF Gerald Young (O HR on the year), blasted a homer off Expos starter Bryn Smith.   Things got even rockier for Smith in the 2nd inning, when he allowed four hits including a 3-run HR by Buddy Bell, and Smith was lifted for Schatzeder after recording only 5 outs and staking Houston to a 5-0 lead.  That was pretty much all the Astros Nolan Ryan needed, as Ryan tossed a 4-hit complete game with nine strikeouts.  For the second game in a row the Astros record a 6-1 win, and they still have plenty of depth in the starting rotation and a fresh bullpen moving into the regional finals.

Game over
When Joey Votto's fielders choice put the 2012 Reds up 1-0 in the top of the 1st of the regional final, it was the first time the 1988 Astros had been behind in the tournament.  A Billy Hatcher double did tie it 1-1 in the 2nd, but from then on it was all Reds--battering Astros starter Bob Knepper with solo HRs from Ludwick, Paul, and Todd Frazier, plus a two-run single from injury replacement Wilson Valdez.  The Reds were able to remove Homer Bailey in the 7th and turn things over to a strong bullpen, with Aroldis Chapman coming in to finish things out in the 9th, giving the Reds the 6-2 win and a tournament-best 7th regional title (to go with 1924, 1971, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1993) for the franchise.  It was also redemption for these Reds, who were one win away from beating the eventual Series-winning Giants in the 2012 postseason when Cueto injured himself showing off his batting swing.

 

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

REGIONAL #75:  This group didn't include any pennant winners, or even any teams within a season of winning a pennant.   There were three teams that will go on to win pennants a few years down the road, and they were probably the favorites here:  the 1976 Phillies, the 1993 Indians, and the 1986 A's.   Given that these overviews are done without looking at the records or the cards of any of the teams involved, most of these squads are unfamiliar to me, although I thought that there were no great teams on hand here so any of these squads could have taken the regional.   If forced, I'd predicted a Phillies/Indians final, with the Phillies (1976, not the dreadful 1924 version) squeaking by for the regional title.  Turns out I was seriously wrong about that.

First round action:

Setting the lineup for the 81-81 1969 Astros, I was thinking that this team was better than I had thought they might be, particularly with 20-game winner Larry Dierker going for them on the mound.  That was NOT the reaction I had in reviewing the 55-win 1924 Phillies, which might have as bad a starting rotation as any team I've seen in this tournament.  Things then went pretty much as expected, with the Astros jumping out to a 9-0 lead by the 3rd inning and coasting from there to a 13-6 win.  Doug Rader had 2 homers and 4 RBI to pace the attack, although 8 of the 9 Astro batters had RBIs (we're looking at you, Johnny Edwards).  Cy Williams did his best for the Phillies with a HR and four RBI, and although Dierker wasn't particularly sharp, it didn't require much when you have 13 runs of support.

The 1976 Phillies won 101 games and the NL East; although they were swept by the Big Red Machine and denied a pennant, setting the lineup convinced me that this might qualify as a great team--it had offense, defense, and pitching.  Their first round opponent, the 1998 Orioles, only won 79 games but they boasted a prime steroid-era lineup, led by a pharmacologically enhanced Rafael Palmeiro and with Cal Ripken at the opposite end of his consecutive game streak that he began on the '82 team in the previous regional.  With two pretty fair pitchers in Steve Carlton and Mike Mussina facing off, the resulting slugfest was a bit surprising.  Schmidt led it off in the top of the 1st with a 2-run homer; Mike Bordick answered in the bottom of the 2nd with one of his own and the Orioles moved out to a 4-2 lead.  Dick Allen's 3-run shot in the 3rd made it 6-4, but a Chris Hoiles solo blast in the bottom of the inning narrowed it to 6-5.  In the 5th, Palmeiro juiced a 2-run shot to put the Orioles up 7-6; the teams traded runs in the 7th, the Phils score 2 in the 8th but the Orioles tied it in the bottom of the inning on a Brady Anderson double.  The game thus stands knotted at 9-9 after 9, and it's Ron Reed vs. Jesse Orosco as the squads head to extra innings.  The Phils get Bowa on 1st on a walk, then Garry Maddox misses a split HR/DO and 1-17 Bowa heads for home--roll: 20.  That brings up Luzinski, who lofts a FlyX to Brady Anderson:  Single-2, and the Phils score the go-ahead run.  Reed shuts down the O's in the bottom of the 10th, and the Phillies survive a tough one, showing that they won't go down without a fight.  Question:  Is it unnatural to yell at Tim McCarver's card, "If you know so much, how come you can't get a hit??"

Who are these guys?
The 76-win 1993 Indians were not nearly as good a team as I thought they might be, given their successes later in the decade, but they still seemed appreciably better than the 66-win 2013 Twins, who had hardly any names on their team that I recognized.  However, one of the names that I did, Justin Morneau, hit a 3-run HR in the top of the 1st, and another HR by Florimon in the 2nd made it 5-0 Twins and sent Indians starter Jose Mesa to an early shower.  Eric Plunk came in and held the Twins in check, and in the 5th Twins starter Sam Deduno (who?), with a no-hitter after 4, was battered by a succession of Cleveland hits and by the time reliever Caleb Thielbar (who?) managed to douse the flames, the Indians led 6-5.  However, Plunk eventually hit his limit and turned the ball over to Derek Lilliquist in the 8th, and that didn't go well as Brian Dozier finished things up for the Twins the way they began--with a 3-run homer, and Perkins came in for the 9th to retire the Indians in order and preserve the 8-6 win for the Twins.
 

The 76-win 1986 A's were still a few years away from their Bash Brothers prime, but they still looked a fair amount better than the 62-win 1957 Cubs, who looked a bit like Ernie Banks and the seven dwarves.  But chalk one up for the dwarves, as the Cubs used a 2-run HR in the first inning by Dale Long and three unearned runs in the 6th courtesy of a Bochte 2-base error to give the Cubs the 5-4 win.  Banks was hitless for the Cubs, while Kingman and Tony Phillips both homered for the A's, but Moe Drabowsky was just good enough for the Cubs to notch the complete game win.

The survivors:

In gushing about the near-greatness of the 1976 Phillies, I failed to note that their weak link was probably their starting rotation, although they could tap an experienced starter in Jim Lonborg to face the 1969 Astros.  In contrast, the Astros had a deep staff that was likely better than the Phils (no doubt aided by the Astrodome, and no ballpark effects here in the Basic game) and Tom Griffin was a strong counter to Lonborg.  The Astros got on the board in the 2nd on a sac fly by John Edwards (the only Astro who didn't have an RBI in the first round), but a Johnstone double followed by a Schmidt homer in the 3rd made it 3-1 Philadelphia.  Norm Miller singled in a run in the 6th to make it 3-2, but in the 7th a walk followed by a 2-base error by "1" CF Garry Maddox put the go-ahead run in scoring position for Houston.  The Phillies called upon Tug McCraw to preserve the lead, but Denis Menke lined a hard single, scoring two and putting the Astros up 4-3.  Griffin settled in and shut down the Phils the rest of the way, giving the Astros the 4-3 win and a spot in the regional finals, where they hope to join two previous Houston regional winners (1972 and 1980).

The second semifinal featured two 60-win teams who were underdog winners in the first round, but neither inspired much confidence as they went deeper into their rotations.   The 2013 Twins picked up a run in the top of the 1st on a sac fly from Joe Mauer, but the 1957 Cubs responded in the bottom of the inning with back to back HRs by Moryn and Banks.  Banks added a second solo shot in the 4th and Bob Speake did the same in the 5th, pushing Cubs out to a 4-1 lead.  However, a solo HR by Mauer in the 6th and a 2-run shot by Morneau in the 8th tied things up at 4-4.  In the bottom of the 8th, the Cubs get runners on 1st and 3rd with two out but coming to the plate is defensive replacement Jerry Kindall, a .160 hitter with a .472 OPS, and there is little other option at 3b on the bench.  So Kindall bats, and of course hits a double off Twins reliever Anthony Swarzak's card, putting the Cubs up 5-4.  In the 9th, Cubs starter Bob Rush allows a leadoff hit and is pulled for Jim Brosnan, who retires the side in order and sends the Cubs to the finals with a 5-4 win.

Shoulda kept this guy
It was thus the 1969 Astros with Denny Lemaster against the 1957 Cubs and Don Elston for the regional title, two teams with serious flaws but with a proven ability to win.  The Astros moved to a 1-0 lead in the 4th on a Norm Miller sac fly, but timely singles by Bobby Adams and Chuck Tanner pushed the Cubs out front 2-1 in the 5th.  It stayed that way until the top of the 8th, when Elston walked two and was replaced by Jim Brosnan, who had saved the semifinal game.  However, Denis Menke singled past defensive liability Dale Long at 1b to tie the game.  Knotted 2-2 in the 9th, Brosnan lucked out when Doug Rader missed a HR 1-10/DO split, but a walk and an infield in grounder put two runners in scoring position.  Brosnan induced another infield in grounder from Edwards, and then faced Joe Morgan with two outs.  One never wants to face a Hall of Famer with the game on the line, and Morgan smacked a single (missing a DO/SI split) to score two, promptly stole second, and then scored on a Marty Martinez base hit.  The shell-shocked Cubs could muster nothing against Lemaster in the bottom of the 9th, and the '69 Astros carry home the regional title.