REGIONAL #185: After drawing this group, I spotted a number of teams that I thought would be bad and one that I knew would be good–the pennant-winning 2006 Cardinals. As for the remainder, it seemed like a mixed bag, with another Cards team that featured Stan the Man perhaps having some potential, a late-80s Yankee team that was probably decent, a ‘67 Dodger team that I remembered as a good pitch/no hit bunch, and a 90’s Phillies squad from a few years after an NL pennant. I figured that if the 2006 version of the Cards could escape the bottom of bracket, they would emerge on top, while guessing that the success of Yankee teams in the last regional would carry the ‘89 version to the finals but no further. The ELO rankings indicated that pretty much every team in this group other than the ‘06 Cards were bad to terrible, and even those Cards were only ranked as the 7th best team in baseball that season despite winning the NL. Still, the rankings indicated an all-St. Louis final, with the pennant winners listed as prohibitive favorites over the 1959 version.
Saturday, April 22, 2023
Monday, April 10, 2023
REGIONAL #184: This seemed to be the Bracket of the Yankees, with three entries from three distinctly different pinstripe eras. The one that caught my eye was the 1948 team that was about to reel off a string of pennants, but the two other entries would evolve into dynasties later in their respective decades. There were also two Brewers teams, one AL and one NL, but neither evoked memories of greatness for me, and a Twins squad a few years after their 1991 pennant-winner that crashed and burned in the first round two regionals prior. Just based on the 50% base rate, I figured that some squad from New York would win, so I guessed it would be the ‘48 Yanks over their ‘93 version in the finals. The ELO rankings predicted the same outcome, although it had the Mets as the overall #2 seed setting up a potential Subway Showdown in the semifinals.
First round actionThe #2 seeded 2006 Mets won 97 games and the NL East, with a powerhouse lineup in which everyone had a SLG% over .400 and seven of nine had double digit homers; however, their rotation was mostly past their prime, with Tom Glavine (15-7, 3.82) being the best preserved specimen. The 1976 Brewers lost 95 games and had an okay rotation fronted by Jim Slaton (14-15, 3.44), but offensively people were either too young, like Robin Yount, or too old, like Hank Aaron, to be very effective. However, the Brewers take a lead in the top of the 2nd with two 2-out doubles, the second by Von Joshua past Mets LF-3 Cliff Floyd to drive in the run. In the 4th, Brewer George Scott converts a TR 1-3 and scores when Aaron grounds into a DP, and they get another in the 5th on three straight singles off Glavine’s card. Meanwhile, the Mets can’t do anything with the junk that Slaton is serving up, and after five it’s Milwaukee 3, New York 0. Glavine doesn’t allow another baserunner until the 8th, at which point he’s replaced by closer Billy Wagner, who shuts down the Brewers but it’s too late as Slaton wraps up a 3-hit shutout despite a 9th inning error by 1B-1 Scott; the Mets lose 3-0 and don’t record a hit after the second inning as Milwaukee advances.
Although the organization of teams within a regional is random, for the 4th bracket in a row the #1 seed is matched against the bottom seed, with two out of three of those top seeds winning the matchup but in the prior regional it was the #8 seed that won it all. This time it was the1948 Yankees, who won 94 games and although they only finished in 3rd place, the ELO ratings had them as the best team in baseball that season. With a strong lineup boasting Jolting Joe, Tommy Henrich and Yogi Berra, and a deep rotation fronted by Vic Raschi (19-8, 3.84), this team seemed to have potential to go far in the tournament. They faced the 1995 Twins, who went 56-88 in the strike-shortened season to finish in last place, and the shortfall of innings left few options in the rotation with Brad Radke (11-14, 5.32) representing a frightening round one starter. In the top of the third Dimaggio goes deep for a 2-run shot to put the Yanks up, and they plate another in the 4th when Johnny Lindell scores on a Billy Johnson grounder, but they also lose 1B George McQuinn for the remainder of the regional to injury. With the game still within reach, the Twins eye their bullpen when they hit the 6th inning but what they see probably damages their retinas, so they stick with Radke and he holds as the Twins score two in the bottom of the inning as two hits and a walk, all off Raschi’s card, set up a bases-loaded walk and a fielder's choice that narrows New York’s lead to 3-2. In the 7th, Bobby Brown, in for the injured McQuinn, doubles and with two outs scores (barely) on a Rizzuto single to provide a bit of padding, and it quickly proves necessary as a 2-out RBI double by PH Matt Lawton brings the Twins back within one. But Raschi snuffs out their hopes with a perfect 9th, striking out PH Pedro Munoz to seal the tight 4-3 win and move the Yanks on to the semifinals.
By the ELO ranks, the 1973 Yankees were the worst of the three Bronx Bombers squads in this regional, but they were not a bad team, going 80-82 with Bobby Murcer, DH prototype Ron Blomberg, and a couple of Alous leading the offense and Doc Medich (14-9, 2.91) fronting a decent staff. They were slight underdogs to the 83-79 2012 Brewers, with Ryan Braun the MVP runner up and Yovani Gallardo (16-9, 3.86) on the mound. In the top of the 1st, Murcer lives up to his hype as the next Mantle and crushes a 2-run homer to put the Yanks ahead, and Felipe Alou extends it in the 2nd with an RBI single. In the 3rd, Blomberg smashes a solo shot, and after a few hits Matty Alou outdoes his brother with a 3-run homer off Gallaro and the rout is on and Gallardo is gone. However, Medich loses control in the bottom of the inning, walking four batters, and a triple by Juan Segura and a sac fly from Aramis Ramirez and the score is narrowed to 7-3 New York. In the 5th, Matty A. gets his 4th RBI of the game on a fielder’s choice, and Blomberg adds an RBI single off Brewer closer John Axford in the 7th. When a Nori Aoki double puts men on 2nd and 3rd with one out in the bottom of the inning, the Yanks summon Sparky Lyle from the pen, and he whiffs Rickie Weeks and Braun to end that threat. Graig Nettles pokes a solo homer in the 8th, and the Yanks then seek to save Lyle, bringing in elder statesman Sam McDowell, who closes out the 9-3 win and sends another Yankee team to the semifinals.
The Zoom game of the week featured two partisan managers, genuine Canadian Roy at the helm of the 2014 Blue Jays, and New York enthusiast Frank guiding the 1993 Yankees in a matchup that was pretty even according to the ELO ranks. The Yanks were AL East runner ups with 88 wins, led by names like Boggs and Mattingly with a big year from catcher Mike Stanley; the Blue Jays won 83 games and had Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion as their biggest weapons. The Yankees would start Jimmy Key (18-6, 3.00), who they had just that year acquired from Toronto and was 4th in the Cy Young voting, while the Jays countered with 39 year old knuckleballer RA Dickey (14-13, 3.71), who had emigrated from New York after a Cy Young award a few years earlier. Dickey quickly starts showing his age, as after two outs in the bottom of the 1st nothing seems to be knuckling, and six hits, a two run single from Bernie Williams, and RBI knocks from Pat Kelly and #9 hitter Mike Gallego later, the Yankees lead 5-0 after one. Stanley contributes a two-run double in the 2nd and it’s 7-0 and Dickey is gone after after 1.1 innings in which he allows seven earned runs, and suddenly the Yanks are facing the imposing card of Aaron Sanchez and his 1.09 ERA. The Jays don’t get a baserunner until the 5th, but they take advantage of it as Brett Lawrie drives in the runner to put Toronto on the board. At that point the Jays start feeling out the weaknesses on Key’s card, and in the 6th the Jays get two more on a Bautista double, another in the 7th courtesy of Melky Cabrera, and with two hard hits to open the 8th New York feels that it’s time to change the locks on Key and Paul Gibson comes in, but can’t prevent more damage. After Marcus Strohman comes in and further tames the Yankee hitters, it’s now a one-run game heading into the 9th and NY summons their closer Steve Farr, who comes equipped with two sizable HR results, to try to hang on to the lead. But he walks the first batter, PH Adam Lind, and then Jose Reyes follows with a double; with nobody out, Roy is faced with the dilemma of trying to score the tying run with the slow Lind (1-10) with nobody out, or playing for the big inning and the win. He puts up the stop sign with the heart of the order coming up. However, the next batter pops out and up steps Encarnacion, with Bautista on deck and the infield in. Farr delivers, it’s a 3-12, nailing the dreaded LOMAX, and the Yankees are quite fortunate to thwart the comeback and move on with the 7-6 win–with three of the four semifinal teams wearing pinstripes.
The survivors
A Zoom semifinal allowed nacster to try to guide the 1976 Brewers to their second straight upset, this time against the bracket favorite 1948 Yankees, managed by ColavitoFan who had led them to some success in his ‘48 replay. However, although the game was played live, there was no signs of life in either team’s offense, as Bill Travers (15-16, 2.81) for the Brewers and wild Tommy Byrne (8-5, 3.30) for the Bombers were in complete control. Aside from Von Joshua, Milwaukee was having trouble mustering any hits, leading Nac to disparage the Hall of Fame credentials of Hank Aaron and Robin Yount as neither was able to produce when needed. But Travers was equally dominant, holding the Yanks to one hit in the first 6 innings and escaping the 7th on some sloppy New York baserunning. And so the game proceeds through nine scoreless innings, with both starters still in the game and both holding the opposition to only three hits total. Each starter begins their last inning in the 10th; Byrne escapes an error by C-4 Yogi Berra to send the game to the bottom of the 9th, where the Yanks come up with a base hit to put the winning run on base with two away. That brings up the top of the order in the form of Snuffy Stirnweiss, with three homers total on the year–but he finds Travers’ solid 4-4 HR result for a walk-off shot and once again the Yanks are pushed by an upset-minded underdog, but they escape with a 2-0 win and head to what is guaranteed to be an all-Yankee final. Worthy of note: while researching following this game, I learned that Stirnweiss tragically died at age 39 while a passenger in a train accident. His train was apparently traveling at twice the prescribed speed when it approached the drawbridge over Newark Bay, which was open, and the train was unable to stop in time, plunging into the water and killing 48 people including Stirnweiss. We can only hope that he was looking down into the Zoom game and able to watch his ‘48 card nail that walkoff homer.
Monday, April 3, 2023
REGIONAL #183: I didn’t see any pennant winners in this group, although if my memory served me correctly there was an Astros team in here that got close. There was a Royals team one season removed from a surprising regional winner in the bracket before last, but I doubted that lightning would strike twice for them. In the bottom of the bracket there were Yankees and Phillies teams that I guessed would be okay, but the one that caught my eye was a pandemic-year Giants team that I was pretty sure had won a bunch of games both before and after that year. I decided that there would be enough small-sample aberrations that would get the Giants to the final, but that the Astros would ultimately prevail by benefiting from fewer usage constraints. The ELO rankings also went with the Astros as the class of the bunch, but indicated that I underestimated the pre-Splinter 1938 Red Sox, who were apparently not suffering as badly from the Curse of the Babe as I had assumed.
First round action
The top seeded 1991 Astros won 97 games and the NL Central, with a strong Biggio/Bagwell led lineup that fell short in the NL postseason. For the third regional in a row, the top seed drew the bottom seed in the first round; here the victims looked to be 1950 Browns, a bad 96-loss team that couldn’t be very encouraged by the results of those previous mismatches. On the mound, the Browns did have Ned Garver (13-18, 3.39), who received MVP votes, but so did the Astros’ Mike Hampton (22-4, 2.90), runner-up for the Cy Young who led the league in wins. Hampton is tossing a one-hitter until the 5th, when an error by 2B-2 Biggio ignites a three-hit rally that scores two runs courtesy of a Ken Wood double; unfortunately for the Browns, their CF Ray Coleman ends the rally with a DP and a 5-game injury. Hampton is then fine until yielding a leadoff single in the 9th, but Billy Wagner comes in to strike out the side and the Astros are down to their last outs with no answers against Garver thus far. And they don’t find any in the 9th, as Garver retires the side in order and the lowly Browns pull off the 2-0 upset behind Garver’s four-hit masterpiece.
The #7 seeded 1998 Royals were hoping to duplicate the feat of the 6th seeded ‘97 team that won the regional before last, but this version was no improvement losing 89 games with a feeble back half of the lineup in a peak steroid year and a dismal starting rotation with Jose Rosado (8-11, 4.69) getting the round one start having won the semifinal game in Regional #181. They faced the 1989 Cubs, who won 93 games and the NL East but faltered in the NLCS; the Cubs arguably had four starters better than Rosado, with Greg Maddux (19-12, 2.95) placing third in the Cy Young ballots and a lineup with Sandberg, Dawson, Grace at it’s core. However, in the top of the 2nd Jeff King slaps a double past RF-2 Dawson and Shane Mack scores him with a single off Maddux’ card, and then Mack comes in when Larry Sutton also finds a pitcher’s card single and the Royals jump out to a 2-0 lead. They add another run in the 4th when Jeff Conine misses a HR 1-11 split but Mack scores on the resulting double, but the Cubs come alive in the 5th with a two out rally keyed by a Sandberg double and RBI singles from Grace, Salazar, Dunston and Damon Berryhill, and when the smoke clears the Cubs are leading 6-3 after five. However, the celebration is cut short when Maddux is injured for 7 games on the first roll of the 6th inning, and the Cubs nervously trot out Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams to try to hang on for a few innings. When Dawson leads off the bottom of the 7th with a double on a missed HR split, Rosado is out for closer Jeff Montgomery, but Dawson scores on a Dunston grounder and then defensive replacement Mitch Webster doubles in a run, scoring on a pinch hit by Lloyd McClendon that sets up a 2-run shot by Jerome Walton off Montgomery’s solid 6-9 gopher ball. By the time Sandberg makes the third out, the Cubs are in double digits and they pull Williams, who allows no hits but three walks in his 1.2 innings, for mop up man Jeff Pico. Pico proves to be too spicy for the Royals, and the Cubs move on with a convincing 11-3 victory, although if they should make it to the super-regionals they won’t have Maddux available for those games.
Although they wouldn’t see Ted Williams until the following season, the 1938 Red Sox were a much better team than I anticipated, finishing 2nd in the AL going 86-61 with big years from Hall of Famers Jimmie Foxx (the AL MVP) and player/manager Joe Cronin, and another HOFer on the mound in the form of Lefty Grove (14-4, 3.08). They were big favorites over a 92-loss 1992 Phillies team that had limited weapons besides Darren Daulton and John Kruk, but Curt Schilling (14-11, 2.35) had the potential to be the great equalizer. The Phils take the lead in the bottom of the 2nd when Kruk scores while Mariano Duncan is hitting into a double play, but the Red Sox tie it up in the 4th when Foxx barely beats the throw home attempting to score from first on a Cronin double. The Phils find the hits on Grove’s card with unerring accuracy, but keep getting their baserunners wiped out on double play balls; in the top of the 6th Ben Chapman finally returns the favor, finding the only complete hit on Schilling’s card to lead off the inning, and Foxx follows with a colossal blast for two runs and the lead. In the bottom of the 7th, PH Wally Backman gets on courtesy of an error by 3b-3 Pinky Higgins, and pinch runner Stan Javier is held, setting up a gbA++ single from Ruben Amaro and a subsequent score on a fielder’s choice from Mickey Morandini, so it’s a one run game entering the 8th. In the 8th, Higgins misses Schilling’s HR 1-4/flyB split, but two batters later Doc Cramer hits it again and rolls the “4” split for a 2-run shot, and Schilling is so angry his sock starts bleeding. In the 9th, Schilling gets two outs and then shows he’s rattled when he tosses a Ben Chapman grounder into the dugout for a two-base error; that means he has to face Foxx again, and once again Foxx sends it into the dark recesses of the Vet for another 2-run shot. Grove sets down the Phils quietly in the 9th, striking out PH Wes Chamberlain for the final out of the 7-2 win.
The 2020 Giants went 29-31 in the pandemic season and had many of the hallmarks of the small-sample squads from that year–four guys in the heart of the lineup with .500+ SLG% and another two waiting on the bench, but problems in their IP-determined starting rotation beginning at the top with Johnny Cueto (2-3, 5.40). They would be ELO underdogs to the 1987 Yankees, who won 89 games but only finished 4th in the AL East despite strong years from Don Mattingly and Dave Winfield, with Charles Hudson (11-7, 3.61) leading a solid if unspectacular staff. Mauricio Dubon leads off the game with a double, missing Hudson’s HR split, but he scores regardless on a 2-out single from Alex Dickerson for a Giants lead. Cueto surpasses the Giants’ wildest dreams by tossing five shutout innings, and from there he’s on a very short leash in this tight game as their pen is stocked with some low inning wonders. Still, he hangs on until walking Willie Randolph to begin the bottom of the 8th, when SF summons Jarlin Garcia and his 0.49 ERA to try to preserve the one run lead and he puts a stake in the heart of the Yankees order. In the top of the 9th, Brandon Crawford (1-11) is gunned down trying to score on a Longoria single, but PH Austin Slater follows up with a 2-run single to give the Giants some breathing room. SF pulls Garcia for the bottom of the 9th to preserve his use, giving some work to Sam Selman, who gets two quick outs but then allows a double to PH Claudell Washington. A single by Rick Cerone then breaks up the shutout, but PH Bobby Meacham grounds out to defensive replacement 2B Daniel Robertson and the Giants escape with the 3-1 win.
The survivors
The #8 seed 1950 Browns apparently took inspiration from the contemporaneous March Madness basketball tournament going on, as they had knocked off the top seed in round one and were looking to surprise the field further. Now, they would face the #3 seeded 1989 Cubs, the second straight division winner that the Browns would run into. The challenge for the Browns was made even larger with their leadoff man and CF Ray Coleman out indefinitely with an injury, and they had used their only good starting pitcher in round one, leaving Al Widmar (7-15, 4.76) to get the start. Befitting a division winner, the Cubs had a much better rotation and Mike Bielecki (18-7, 3.14) was hoping to give the Cubs pen some rest after they had to cover for the injured Greg Maddux in the first round. The Browns strike quickly in the top of the 1st with an RBI double from Sherm Lollar, and he plods home on a Les Moss single for a 2-0 St. Louis lead. Their hopes for another 2-0 win end in the 4th inning, when Browns 2b-4 Owen Friend can’t get to a Luis Salazar grounder with men on 2nd and 3rd and the game is tied. That tie is short-lived, as Tom Upton leads off the top of the 5th by finding and converting Bielecki’s HR 1-11 split, but the Cubs tie it once again in the 6th on an Andre Dawson fielder’s choice that scores a run. That brings the game to the 9th inning still knotted; Lollar gets on to begin the top of the inning on an error by Cubs 3B-3 Salazar, and after a popout Roy Sievers gets a HR 1/DO, misses the split, and the Browns have to decide whether to send the 1-9 Lollar home with a terrible bottom of the order coming up. They send him, and he’s out by a mile, and sure enough .225 hitter Ken Wood nails a solid double on his card that scores Sievers and the Browns now lead. With first base open, the Cubs figure they may as well bring in Wild Thing Williams, who retires Friend but the game heads to the bottom of the 9th with the Cubs down by a run and the back end of the order coming up. And Widmar sets them down in order, striking out PH Rick Wrona to wrap up the 4-3 win and send the underdog Browns to the regional final.The 2020 Giants would be ELO underdogs to the #2 seeded 1938 Red Sox, but the Giants had one advantage because it turned out that their best starting pitcher “had” to start this game because of pandemic-year innings restrictions–that being Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.62). For the Red Sox, Jim Bagby (15-11, 4.21) was a big drop-off from their Hall of Fame first round starter, and sure enough in the bottom of the 1st the Giants knock out four hits against Bagby, with a squib RBI single from Wilmer Flores and a run-scoring double by one of the Brandons (Crawford) that could have resulting in another, but Flores was nailed at the plate for the third out. The Red Sox load the bases with two out in the 3rd to bring up MVP Jimmy Foxx, but SS-2 Crawford makes a defensive stop and Boston comes up empty. An Alex Dickerson grounder makes it 3-0 in the bottom of the inning, but the Red Sox get the run back in the 4th on an RBI hit by Doc Cramer. However, Mike Yastrzemski drives in a run on a triple from a missed HR split, and when the Red Sox bring the infield in to try to keep Yaz stranded it backfires as Dickerson rips a gbA++ single to score another, making it 5-1 after five. Bagby then loads the bases for the other Brandon (Belt) in the 6th, and the Red Sox search the bullpen but find no clear answers there, so they leave Bagby in and Belt finds a double on Bagby’s card to score two more. Boston can take no more, and Bagby exits having allowed 14 hits in favor of Bill Harris, who records the final out but it’s now 7-1 Giants. The Red Sox mount a 2-out rally in the 9th, with Bobby Doerr driving in a run and scoring on a single from Ben Chapman, but the Giants stick with Gausman to rest their bullpen and he rewards them by striking out Foxx for the last out of the 7-3 win that puts the Giants in the finals.
The bracket final matched the bottom seed 1950 Browns against the #5 seed 2020 Giants, attempting to be the first pandemic-year squad to win a regional. Typical of most bad teams, the Browns rotation was quite ugly in the back half, and Stubby Overmire (9-12, 4.19) was better than some other dreadful options, while because of innings limitations the Giants had no choice but to go with Tyler Anderson (4-3, 4.37) although they had a much stronger bullpen that was fully rested. For the third straight game in the bracket, the Giants jump to the lead in the 1st with a 2-out, 2-run single by Wilmer Flores, but the Browns load the bases with two out in the top of the 2nd for Dick Kokos, who finds a double on Anderson’s card that clears the bases and for the first time in the regional the Giants find themselves behind. The hole gets even deeper when Sherm Lollar singles home Kokos, and it’s now 4-2 in favor of the upstart Browns. In the top of the 4th, Kokos converts Anderson’s HR 1-2 split for a two-run shot and with the future at stake the Giants immediately move to the pen for Jarlin Garcia and his 0.49 ERA. He shuts down the Browns, and the Giants mount a comeback in the 5th with three consecutive RBI singles by Brandon Crawford, Donovan Solano and Evan Longoria and it’s a one-run game. The Browns mount a threat in the top of the 6th when Lollar doubles, but Kokos (1-13) is cut down trying to score and Garcia ends his three-inning stint unscathed. In the 8th, as if the Browns don’t have enough challenges, they lose their best hitter, 1B Don Lenhardt, to an 8-game injury, but to avenge his fallen mate in the next inning Ken Wood rolls his solid 3-3 HR for a 2-run blast to give Overmire a little padding for the bottom of the 9th. He quickly shows that he needs it, loading the bases with nobody out, but the Giants can only convert one run on a Crawford fielders choice and the Browns, for only the second time in the history of that portion of the franchise, take the regional with an 8-6 win. Not to dampen the celebration, but they will be heading for a future super-regional with two regulars injured and dismal prospects for a #4 starter, although they’ve managed to overcome remarkable odds thus far.
Interesting card of Regional #183: When you’ve got a 96-loss bottom seed that wins the bracket, there usually aren’t a lot of cards on it destined for the Hall of Fame, and Ken Wood is no exception. Still, Wood drove in key runs in all three games of the regional, and they all came off his own, rather weird card. I really liked the die-cut (no SADV, sorry) past seasons that the game company released before going to the perforated cards after the 1987 season, as these cards had many of the classic hit patterns that were part of the early years of the company. However, Wood’s card isn’t one of them–he’s got weird hits in weird places, and this is not a pattern that anyone has seen again since we started having the perforated cards with the predictable patterns. When I was a kid, I would have NEVER wanted a card with this layout, as I liked the patterns of the greats: give me a solid two column, or solid three column, thank you. Well, I’m no kid anymore, and in this bracket I managed to roll unerringly on the good results on Wood’s card to help lead the worst team in the group (according to ELO rankings) to the crown. It’s worth noting that in 1950 Wood actually received two points in the voting for AL MVP, which was good for 29th place, but he certainly merited consideration for MVP honors in this bracket. Also worthy of note: despite getting a 3e16 in ADV from Strat in RF, he did receive a -3 arm rating, something he apparently deserved because on Aug. 11, 1950, Wood threw out two runners at home plate–in the same inning.