REGIONAL #98: This regional was balanced in having four teams from this millennium and four from the previous one; it had one pennant winner in the 2014 Giants and also had Reds, Cubs, and Tiger teams that had won a pennant a year or two previously. My pick was the Giants over the Cubs in the finals. The ELO rankings portrayed this as a strong bracket, with 7 of the 8 teams in the "top 1000"; they picked an all-Tigers final with the 2007 squad going back nearly a century to beat the 1911 Tigers. According to the ELO ranks, the pennant-winning Giants were only the 8th best team in 2014 and were the 3rd worst team in this regional.
First round action
The 2004 Dodgers won 93 games and the NL West, but they faced a 91-win 1983 Yankees team who had 21-game winner Ron Guidry on the mound. Nonetheless, the Dodgers took a 1-0 lead in the top of the 1st when Steve Finley singles home Beltre, but the Dodgers lose LF Jayson Werth for the tournament to injury to end the inning, and the Yankees add insult to that injury when back to back doubles by Wynegar and Baylor against Dodger starter Brad Penny make it 2-1 NY in the bottom of the 1st. The Dodgers tie it in the 3rd on a Jose Hernandez double, but both pitchers settle down and there are no more hits until the 7th, when the Dodgers score two on a Cesar Izturis triple and a Graig Nettles error (the Yanks' 4th of the game). With a lead and a strong Dodger bullpen, Penny is on a short leash and when Steve Kemp leads off the bottom of the 7th with a double, Eric Gagne is summoned to lock things down, but Willie Randolph eventually brings Kemp in with a sac fly to narrow the gap to 4-3. Things stay that way until the bottom of the 9th, when the Dodgers summon Carrara to try to preserve Gagne for later rounds, and he does the job, retiring a succession of Yankee pinch-hitters to preserve the 4-3 win and the Dodgers move on. Guidry allows 7 hits, but 6 Yankee errors make his job impossible.
The 2014 Giants went 88-74 to finish 2nd in the NL West, but went on to win the pennant and the World Series from a wildcard slot, while the 1911 Tigers went 89-65 to finish 2nd in the AL behind big years from HOFers Ty Cobb and Sam Crawford. The Tigers jumped to a 1-0 lead in the top of the 1st on a Stanage RBI single, but Crawford has to leave the game after his first AB with a minor injury. Jim Delahanty (not to be confused with any of his 4 brothers who also played) hits a 2-run shot off SF starter Madison Bumgarner in the 3rd, and it's 3-0 Detroit. The Giants finally get on the scoreboard against Tiger starter George Mullin in the 6th, on a Pablo Sandoval RBI single, but when a Cobb single puts men on 1st and 3rd in the top of the 7th, the Giants bring in Casilla in relief, and Delahanty promptly knocks a gbA++ to score a run with Cobb held. The Giants get the run back in the bottom of the 7th when Tiger 2b-2 Charlie O'Leary boots a Pence grounder to score Joe Panik, narrowing the gap to 4-2 Detroit. Casilla holds the fort, and in the bottom of the 9th a Panik single and a Michael Morse double put the tying run in scoring position for Pence with 2 out, but Mullin induces the popout and the Tigers head to the semifinal, where Crawford is expected to return to the lineup.
According to the ELO rankings, the 50-104 1953 Pirates were one of the 20 worst teams of all time, with bad pitching and defense and limp hitting with only the Other Frank Thomas' 30 HR as a real threat. On the other hand, the 2017 Cubs were fresh off their 1st World Series win in a century, and won 92 games and the NL Central, making them prohibitive favorites in this matchup. Things remain scoreless until the 4th, when the Cubs get to Pirate starter Paul LaPalme for 3 runs, including a Kris Bryant blast, and add two more in the 5th with RBI singles from Contreras and Happ. Another run on an error in the 6th chases LaPalme in favor of Johnny Hetki, but with a 6-0 lead the Cubs are putting in the defensive replacements wholesale in support of starter Jose Quintana, who is cruising. DH Kyle Schwarber adds a 2-run blast off Hetki's card in the 7th, and the few fans in Forbes Field were streaming towards the exits. They didn't miss anything, as the Cubs coast to the 8-0 win, Quintana with a 5-hit shutout to preserve the formidable Cubs bullpen for later and more difficult rounds.
For teams from decidedly different eras, the 88-win 2007 Tigers and the 98-win 1962 Reds had a lot of similarities: formidable lineups top to bottom, two hotshot #1 starters in 18-game winner Justin Verlander and 23-game winner Bob Purkey on the mound, and rather mediocre defense as their weak spot. The game remains scoreless through six innings, with Tiger CF Curtis Granderson lost for the tournament in the 3rd, further weakening a suspect defense, but then Reds LF Jerry Lynch gets injured for 2 games to lead off the 4th to even things up. The Tigers finally get to Purkey in the bottom of the 7th with four hits to take a 2-0 lead, and they add another in the 8th on a Pudge Rodriguez double. The Reds never do solve Verlander, and the Tigers move on with a 3-0 win, Verlander tossing a 4-hit shutout against the imposing Reds sluggers.
The survivors
In the semifinal matchup between the 2004 Dodgers and the 1911 Tigers, both starters--Wilson Alvarez and Wild Bill Donovan--began the game allowing lots of baserunners but getting bailed out by double-plays, with the Tigers finally putting up a run on a Cobb single in the 3rd, although he was immediately caught stealing to end the inning. A Steve Finley sac fly in the top of the 6th knotted things up, but when Alvarez puts the first two Tigers on in the 7th, it's time for Eric Gagne. However, Gagne's magic is lacking as a Moriarity single and a Davy Jones sac fly puts the Tigers on top 3-1. The Dodgers immediately respond to tie it in the top of the 8th on RBI singles from Shawn Green and injury replacement Jose Hernandez, but the Tigers push ahead again when Cobb singles, steals second, and scores when Choi badly boots a Stanage grounder. In the top of the 9th, Donovan gets two quick outs but then Izturis and Cora get back-to-back singles to bring up Adrian Beltre (.334, 48 HR)--and Beltre takes Donovan's offering into the cheap seats, and the Dodgers take their first lead of the game, 6-4. With Gagne burned, the Dodgers turn to Carrara to try to pick up his second straight save, and he does the job, retiring Crawford as the tying run to seal the 6-4 win and a trip to the regional final. Worthy of note: post-2000 teams went 4-1 against pre-2000 teams in this regional, with all of the latter now eliminated.
Both the 2007 Tigers and the 2017 Cubs had won their first round matchups via shutouts, but it was quickly apparent that starters Chad Durbin and the Cubs' Mike Montgomery weren't going to duplicate that feat. The Cubs score in the top of the 1st on a Rizzo single, and the Tigers respond in the bottom with a Magglio Ordonez 3-run HR. The Tigers add another run on a Gary Sheffield solo shot in the 2nd, but RBI singles from Rizzo and Happ in the 3rd narrow it to 4-3 Tigers. Injury replacement Timo Perez drives in a run to make it 5-3 in the 4th, but Kyle Schwarber matches that in the bottom of the inning and it's 5-4 and the Cubs yank Montgomery in the 5th and look to their deep pen to hold the Tigers in check. When Durbin walks the first two Cubs in the 7th, Detroit turns to their own pen and Bobby Seay, but that doesn't go well as Willson Contreras blasts a 3-run shot to put the Cubs up 7-5. In the 8th, Placido Polanco hits a solo shot off Cubs closer Wade Davis to make it 7-6. The Cubs lose Contreras to injury in the top of the 9th, then bring in reliever Carl Edwards and a host of defensive replacements to try to hold the one-run lead in the bottom of the 9th. Edwards does his job, the Cubs notch the see-saw 7-6 win and move to the finals seeking to be the 4th Cubs team, and the 1st of this millennium, to take a regional.
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| Better than the real thing |
The regional final between the 2004 Dodgers and 2017 Cubs featured two NL division winners, but they both had a regular injured and a bullpen taxed by tight semifinal games, and down to their #3 starters it was apparent that team depth would be an important factor. The Dodgers strike in the 2nd when some sloppy defense by Cubs LF Ian Happ allows two runs to score, but the lead is short-lived as Dodger starter Odalis Perez walks the bases loaded in the 3rd and then allows 3-run homers to both Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber, and a solo shot to injury replacement Alex Avila--making it 8-2 and Perez is gone after 2+ innings in favor of the difficult-to-spell Yhency Brazoban. With the big lead, Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is cruising, as he allows only 2 hits after the 2nd inning, and a Javier Baez single adds an insurance run in the 6th as the Cubs coast to a 9-2 victory and the regional win--only the 4th for the franchise (after 1969, 1974, and 1990). The regional title was very much a team effort, as the leading run producer for the Cubs across the three games was Willson Contreras--who was injured for the final.
Interesting card of Regional #98: Carl Edwards Jr. only pitched in one game in this regional, notching the save in the 2nd round, but he and his Cubs relief mates constitute one of the better bullpens I've seen in the tournament recently. What I find remarkable about Edwards' card is that hits-to-innings ratio. For context: aided by the short 2020 season, Trevor Bauer set the all-time record for lowest H/9 ratio with a 5.05 value. Bauer qualified for the record by tossing 73 innings in 2020; Edwards threw only 7 innings fewer than Bauer, but his 3.93 H/IP blows Bauer's "record" out of the water. Of course, Edwards did have some control issues--how many pitchers have you seen that allowed more walks than hits? Then again, how many times have you seen a result like that on a 4-12 roll? The odds of converting that 4-12 single are 1 in 4,320; because Edwards has only faced 736 batters in his 6-year career thus far, at his current rate he would need to pitch another 29 seasons before he'd have even odds of allowing that 4-12 single.
