SUPER-REGIONAL O: Only one pennant winner began this group of 64, and it didn’t survive into the super-regional, although there were two Reds teams from consecutive seasons that seemed to constitute a mini-dynasty. Given that those two squads faced one of the few White Sox teams to survive the jinx as well the final surviving Rockies team that would probably disappoint brother Chuck, the Reds teams might face off to see who makes the bracket final here. Regardless, I thought the stronger part of the group was in the top teams, with all four teams representing franchises within a couple of seasons of a pennant. I had no idea which of those four would prevail, nor did I have a clue about which Reds team would win their perhaps inevitable faceoff, so I guessed that the most modern team in the bunch, the Phillies, would prevail against the 2010 version of the Reds. The ELO ratings aligned perfectly with that prediction, also noting that the two halves of the super-regional were very imbalanced, with the 2011 Phils a top 100 team of all time while the 2010 Reds barely made the top 1000.
Round four action
The 2011 Phillies won 102 games for the top record in baseball and were ranked as a top 80 team of all time by the ELO ratings, so for the Zoom game of the week I felt it was important to turn over the managerial duties to partisan Philadelphian Tall Tactician to try to sustain the tournament success of this era of the franchise. By comparison, the 79-75 1950 Cardinals were less impressive but Stan Musial was a force to be reckoned with, so Eagfesfly Roy felt pretty good about their chances, particularly with Philly 2B Chase Utley out as usual with an injury. Both teams were down to their #4 starter, Gerry Staley (13-13, 4.99) for the Cards and Vance Worley (11-3, 3.01) for the Phils, and Staley looks like the bottom of the rotation as he doesn’t survive the 2nd inning, with a bases loaded single by injury replacement Wilson Valdez driving in two and Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino, and Ryan Howard all contributing ribbies in a five run inning. Al Brazle manages to get the third out of the 2nd, but only can record one more in the 3rd before Philly DH John Mayberry Jr. sends a homer into the recesses of Sportsmans Park and it’s 7-0 Phils after three–and the Cards haven’t yet seen a baserunner in a home uniform. They finally get a walk, a hit, and a run on a sac fly by Del Rice in the 5th, but that was only after Pence and Victorino had added three more Philly runs in the top of the inning. Raul Ibanez responds to my remarkably robust Philly dice-rolling with a solo homer in the 8th, and the beating doesn’t stop as the 4th and 5th St. Louis pitchers get rocked for seven more runs in the top of the 9th. Musial doubles in the bottom of the 9th and scores on a Bill Howerton single, but the rally falls sixteen runs short as the Phils march on in dominating fashion with the 18-2 win.
The 1970 A's won 89 games at the beginning of a memorable dynasty, and they had bashed their way through Regional #115 with three consecutive two-homer games from three different sluggers: Reggie Jackson, Rick Monday and Don Mincher. The 80-82 1964 Pirates reached this level in a different fashion, only allowing a total of three runs in their three regional games, but in the regional final they suffered a prolonged injury to their best player in Roberto Clemente, meaning that Joe Gibbon (10-7, 3.67) would need to continue the string of strong pitching against the A’s and Chuck Dobson (16-15, 3.74). The A’s start off in good form in the top of the 1st with Joe Rudi driving in Monday on a sac fly, but the Bucs respond immediately with back to back doubles from Willie Stargell and Jerry Lynch to tie it in the bottom of the inning. Lynch doubles again in the 4th, but the 1-9+2 slugger is thrown out trying to score for the last out of the inning. However, the third base coach doesn’t give up that easily, and in the 6th he gives the green light to 1-10+2 Stargell to try to score on a two-out Jim Pagliaroni double; this time it works and the Pirates take the lead, and Dobson is out for Jim Roland who gets the third out. When Monday doubles in the 7th, Pittsburgh takes no chances and summons closer Al McBean to preserve the lead, and he retires the side although Rudi puts a scare into the Forbes Field crowd by missing McBean’s HR 1-2/flyB split. Faced with a tough decision to burn McBean or preserve some use for the next game, the Pirates stick with their closer for the 9th, figuring that the top of the rotation is coming around for round five. He rewards them with a 1-2-3 inning and the Pirates pitching prevails again for a 2-1 win as they survive and advance.
With two of our favorites on the line, brother Chuck and I did a Zoom doubleheader, with the first game of the matchup involving Chuck’s 2016 Rockies, the last surviving representation of their kind in the tournament, while I rolled for the 2009 Reds. Neither one of these squads had been world-beaters in real life, with the Rockies going 75-87 and the Reds slightly better at 78-84, and the pitching matchup of Colorado’s Chad Bettis (14-8, 4.79) and Cincinnati’s Aaron Harang (6-14, 4.21) suggested that this might be a typical high-scoring afternoon at Coors. But these pitchers rolled better than they looked; the Reds took a 1-0 lead in the top of the 3rd on a Johnny Gomes RBI single but the Rockies pulled even in the 4th with David Dahl singling home a run. Colorado then moves out in front in the 6th with a pinch hit double from Ryan Raburn, but the Reds counter that with a pinch hit solo homer from Drew Stubbs in the 7th that ties the game heading into the 9th, with both managers looking nervously at depleted bullpens if extra innings are needed. In the top of the 9th, Bettis gets two out, but then the wheels come off the bus with a double and a Scott Rolen single that puts the Reds ahead. Chuck calls upon Chris Rusin as the only non-terrible option available in the Rockies pen, but it’s Rusin roulette gone wrong as Stubbs, remaining in the game in CF, crushes his second solo homer of the game into the pine trees at Coors. When Gomes later adds an RBI double, the fat lady is singing and Harang hangs in for the 9th to seal the 5-2 victory for the Reds, and the final chance for the Rockies head to the card catalogs while Cincinnati heads to round five.
The second game of the double-header was my probably jinxed 2011 White Sox against a 2010 Reds team that sported most of the same players as the prior year team that had just dispatched the Rockies, giving Chuck a chance to return the favor. This Reds team would use Homer Bailey (4-3, 4.46) as their #4 starter while the Sox tapped Jake Peavy (7-7, 4.92), and the Reds picked up where they left off with an RBI double in the bottom of the 1st from Jay Bruce giving them a 1-0 lead. And that was Peavy’s most successful inning, as in the 2nd the Reds got an RBI single from Drew Stubbs, who had apparently earned the starting CF job given his performance in the previous game, but that just sets up a 2-out 3-run homer by Joey Votto and it’s 5-0 Cincinnati. The good news for the Sox is that they can now pull Peavy for a decent bullpen, and a young Chris Sale comes in and performs decently, allowing only one hit in four innings. Unfortunately, that one hit followed two walks in the 4th, and it was Votto’s second tape measure shot of the game for another 3-run homer and it’s 8-0 Reds. The Sox manage an unearned run in the 7th on the second of three errors, but that’s all they can manage as the Reds mini-dynasty plows on with an 8-1 win, setting up an all-Reds round 5 in which Chuck and I both hope that they both lose.
The survivors: round five
After scoring 18 runs under the direction of Tall Tactician in round four, it seemed appropriate that I set up an emergency Zoom night so that he could attempt to extend the run of the 2011 Phillies in the tournament; I recruited brother Chuck to provide the loyal opposition in the form of the 1964 Pirates. Both of these squads had lost key members of the lineup to injury: the Bucs were without Roberto Clemente, while the Phils would be without Chase Utley for the entire project. With both teams sending out their top starters, Bob Veale (18-12, 2.73) for the Pirates and Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79) for the Phils, it didn’t look like anyone would be scoring 18 runs in this game, but the Phils did score a run in the top of the 2nd on a Carlos Ruiz sac fly for a 1-0 lead. With Bill Mazeroski leading off the bottom of the 3rd, we explained to Chuck the history of Maz’s famous walk-off homer in the World Series, and Chuck absorbs the information by finding and converting Maz’s HR 1-6/flyB split and the game is tied. However, in the 4th Shane Victorino singles a run home and the following inning Raul Ibanez adds a solo homer; another solo shot from Hunter Pence in the 6th provides additional insurance. It turned out no further insurance needed to be purchased, as Hamels finishes out a 5 hitter and the Phils march on with a 4-1 win.
A battle of dopplegangers, the round five matchup of the 2009 Reds and the 2010 Reds required many of the players to violate the conventions of time travel and face versions of themselves separated by 12 months. The alternative versions had the opportunity to return to their #1 starters to determine which would move on to represent the franchise, with Bronson Arroyo (15-13, 3.84) going for the 2009’s and Johnny Cueto (12-7, 3.64) for the 2010s. In the bottom of the 1st, the 2010 Drew Stubbs wastes no time finding the weaknesses on Arroyo’s card, rolling the solid 5-9 homer as the leadoff batter, and two outs later Jim Edmonds rolls his own solid homer and the 2010s lead 2-0. The 2009s respond immediately in the top of the 2nd with back to back doubles from Jay Bruce and Laynce Nix, but the 2010 Stubbs finds his own homer in the 3rd for his second solo shot in two AB and it’s 2010 with a 3-1 lead. A two out rally in the 7th puts runners on 2nd and 3rd for the 2010s and Arroyo is yanked for Arthur Rhodes, who retires defensive replacement Paul Janish to prevent further damage. The 09s then get a single and a Scott Rolen double in the 8th to put the tying runs in scoring position with nobody out, and the 2010s summon their own version of Rhodes, but after recording two outs he yields a 2-run single to Jay Bruce and the game is tied. Neither team can do anything in the 9th, although 2010’s Edmonds does manage to get injured, and the game hits the Rhodes to extra innings. In the top of the 10th, 2009’s Johnny Gomes crushes a solo homer to put the younger team ahead, and in the bottom of the inning they try to preserve their version of Rhodes for a later date after three hitless innings, and they trust the game to their closer Francisco Cordero who whiffs Stubbs for the final out and the 2009s come from behind to take the 4-3 win that propels them into the super-regional final. Arthur Rhodes earns the unusual distinction of being both the winning and the losing pitcher in the same game. Super-regional finalsAs the second game of the emergency Zoom doubleheader, the 2011 Phillies would attempt to continue their domination under the direction of Tall Tactician, while brother Chuck played the “if you can’t beat em, join em” game by manning the 2009 Reds that had knocked out his Rockies in round four. For the Phils, it would be Cy Young runner-up Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35) while Johnny Cueto (11-11, 4.41) had a decent card for the Reds, albeit with some gopher ball issues. The Reds jump out to a quick 2-0 lead against an uncharacteristically sloppy Halladay with a sac fly by Laynce Nix and an RBI single from Jay Bruce. However, Halladay quickly settles down, while in the 4th Ryan Howard converts a HR 1-3/flyB split for a two-run blast to tie the game, while John Mayberry Jr. and Howard drive in two more in the 5th and the Phils move into the lead. Cueto lasts six innings but the Reds can’t afford to fall behind any further, so Chuck moves to reliever Nick Massett to begin the 7th. He does his job, but it’s too late, as Halladay doesn’t allow a hit after the second inning and finishes with a 3-hitter as the Phillies win 4-2, capturing the super-regional and joining their 2008 brethren in the final group of 32 teams.
Interesting card of Super-Regional O: Joey Votto held the rare distinction in this tournament of leading not one, but two Reds teams to their regional championship that ended up in the same super-regional. Furthermore, both posted round four wins in this bracket, setting up a round five matchup between dueling Vottos that were the best hitters in each lineup. Although both were impressive cards, this 2010 version was particularly strong as Joey won the NL MVP award by leading the league in OBP, SLG%, and of course OPS, while finishing 2nd in batting average and 3rd in RBI for a near miss at a Triple Crown. He stayed with the Reds for what is likely to be his entire major league career, but they did not resign him after the 2023 season; being one of the greatest Canadian ballplayers in the history of the game, the Blue Jays took a flyer on him and signed him to a minor league contract, but he hit only .165 and felt he did not deserve an “honorary” promotion to the majors. This signalled the end of a great career in which he averaged .294 with 356 homers, a .409 career OBP and a .511 lifetime SLG%. Are those Hall of Fame numbers? Well, according to the Jaffe WAR Score (JAWS) Hall of Fame rating system, he would place 13th of the 25 first basemen currently in the HOF, with numbers that are pretty much dead average for that group, suggesting that he’s an entirely reasonable candidate for enshrinement. One factoid that underscores just how good a hitter he was is that on April 17, 2019, he popped out to first base in a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers–and it was the first time he had popped out to the infield in 1,592 career games!