REGIONAL #254: As with the last group, this one seemed to be packed with a number of competitive squads, including a 2020 Rays team that won a pandemic pennant and a 2022 Braves team who might have been expected to win a pennant, but didn’t. There was also a Red Sox team a couple of years after a pennant, as well as a Phillies squad from the 80s that probably had a very good Mike Schmidt in the lineup. My hunch was that the Braves would take the bracket, defeating the Rays in the final who might be limited by a usage-constrained starting rotation. The ELO rankings picked exactly the same outcome, suggesting that the Braves should have a relatively easy path to the finals..
First round action
The ELO ratings suggested that the 2015 Red Sox and the 1986 Phillies were pretty evenly matched opponents in this first round game. The Phils went 86-75 and Mike Schmidt was the NL MVP while Von Hayes finished 8th, and Bruce Ruffin (9-4, 2.46) had a nice singles-only card with a good bullpen behind him. The Red Sox were a below .500 team at 78-84, but 22 year old Mookie Betts and 39 year old David Ortiz both got some MVP votes, and Clay Buchholz (7-7, 3.26) was hoping his porous defense would hold up. Sure enough, 3B-4 Pablo Sandoval drops the first chance of the bottom of the 1st, but somehow C-4 Blake Swihart throws out AA Gary Redus to wipe out that mistake. In the 3rd, Swihart throws out AA Juan Samuel try to steal and the Philadelphia fans are screaming for a new split die. They don’t get one, but Redus leads off the 4th with a walk and finally he successfully steals second, with Schmidt swatting a single that put the Phils in the lead. However, a sac fly by Xander Bogaerts immediately ties it in the top of the 5th, and the Red Sox make a series of moves in the 6th designed to shore up the defense. When Darren Daulton doubles off Buchholz’s card in the 7th, the call is made to the pen for closer Koji Uehara, who ends the inning with Samuel missing a SI* 1-14 split. Ruffin also tries to end the top of the 8th with a SI* 1-14 split, but Boston converts to put runners on first and second with two out, so the Phils move to their closer in Kent Tekulve, who whiffs defensive replacement Travis Shaw for the third out. However, the Red Sox get runners on 2nd and 3rd on Tekulve in the top of the 9th, and a Bogaerts single scores one although 1-10+2 Sandoval is out at the plate to hold it to one. The Phils are down to their last three outs and Uehara is running out of eligible innings; the home team gets two runners aboard, but Uehara retires Glenn Wilson for the final out and the Red Sox squeak into the semifinals with the 2-1 win.
The 2020 Rays went 40-20 and won the AL pennant, although the usage constraints around the abbreviated pandemic year posed some challenges for their lineup and their top IP starter, Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08), had the worst ERA in their rotation. However, the 2009 Marlins looked better than I had guessed they would be; they won 87 games led by batting champ and MVP runner-up Hanley Ramirez, and Josh Johnson (15-5, 3.23) was an excellent round one starter although the rotation took a nosedive after him. The Rays go ahead in the bottom of the 2nd on a two-out two-run triple by Kevin Kiermaier, but their defense implodes in the 4th as back to back errors by 2B-2 Brandon Lowe and 3B-3 Joey Wendle sets up a run-scoring sac fly from Jorge Cantu that narrow the Rays lead to 2-1. Clinging to that lead entering the 6th, the Rays put in their low-usage wonders and go to their deep pen to avoid Glasnow’s longball tendencies even though he’s only allowed two hits, with Aaron Slegers getting the call. And the Rays real-life low usage postseason hero, Randy Arozarena, belts a 3-run homer in his first AB in the 6th to provide some insurance for the Tampa pen, which doesn’t need it as they hold the Marlins to four hits and move on with the 5-1 win.
The Zoom game of the week was a bit of a bait and switch, as I promised Eaglesfly and Tall Tactician two good teams in a strong matchup. So Eaglesfly got a good one as promised, the 2022 Braves who were a 101-win team with a top 50 ELO ranking with MVP votes for Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, and Michael Harris, and a great rotation where Spencer Strider (11-5, 2.67) had a better card than two other starters who were serious Cy Young contenders. However, one of my infamous clerical errors led me to inform TT that, rather than a great team, he was instead stuck with the 2023 Giants, who limped to a 79-83 record with a rather lackluster lineup in support of Cy Young runner-up Logan Webb (11-13, 3.25). However, TT’s hope for a pitcher’s duel was dashed in the bottom of the 1st by a two-run homer from Matt Olson, and when Olson comes up next in the 3rd he crushes another on for a 3-0 lead. At that point TT has had it and intentionally walks Olson in all subsequent at-bats. He then begins to chip away at the Atlanta lead with an RBI single from Thairo Estrada and a sac fly from Paul Dejong in the 5th, and although Swanson doubles in a run in the bottom of the inning, the Giants match that with a solo homer by Wilmer Flores in the 6th. But from then on Strider disperses the Giants like a pack of Nazgul, and Riley adds an RBI double to bring the final score to 5-3 Braves, with Strider striking out 14 to advance to the semifinals.
The 2006 Brewers went 75-87 despite having some pop in the lineup courtesy of guys like Prince Fielder, Bill Hall and Carlos Lee, probably because their defense was suspect and the rotation was mediocre with Ben Sheets (6-7, 3.82) getting the round one assignment. Even so, they still looked better than the 2023 Pirates, who fell to a similar 76-86 record after a promising start; with only two starting pitchers having over 100 innings, the start fell to Mitch Keller (13-9, 4.21). However, the Pirates get off to a rapid start with a solo homer by their second batter in the top of the 1st, Bryan Reynolds, and elder statesman Andrew McCutchen leads off the 3rd with another blast to make it 2-0. But Fielder jacks a 2-run homer into the nether reaches of Miller Park in the bottom of the 4th to tie it up, although doubles by Jack Suwinski and Alfonso Rivas put the Pirates back on top in the 6th, leading the Brewers to summon closer Francisco Cordero who quickly strikes out two to prevent further damage. With two away in the 7th, Milwaukee PH Corey Koskie converts Keller’s 6-5 HR split for a two run shot and the lead, and Keller is out for Dauri Moreta who escapes a missed HR split to keep Pittsburgh within one. The Brewers decide to ride with Cordero in the 9th and burn him, but he walks leadoff PH Miguel Andujar; Cordero then bears down and strikes out three in a row to lead the Brewers to the semifinals with the hard fought 4-3 win.
The survivors
The #2 seeded 2020 Rays were facing the 2015 Red Sox in this semifinal after having knocked off a team in round one with an identical ELO rating as this opponent. The Rays had Ryan Yarborough (1-4, 3.56) as a decent mandated second starter, while Boston had the option of Eduardo Rodriguez (10-6, 3.85) over some more frightening alternatives. The Red Sox load the bases in the top of the 1st but 2B-2 Brandon Lowe turns a DP to bail out Yarbrough. Lowe then turns on a pitch in the bottom of the 4th for a solo homer and a Tampa lead, and then a few batters later .156 hitting Hunter Renfro rolls a 1-2 for a solid HR that plates three and the Red Sox are looking at a 4-0 deficit after four. Lowe adds an RBI double in the 5th to increase the Rays’ lead, and both teams bring in some key subs to begin the 6th. In the 7th, the Red Sox get a 2-run triple from Brock Holt, and when Ryan Hanigan doubles Holt home the Rays call Ryan Sherriff and his 0.00 ERA to lay down the law. However, he immediately yields a double to Jackie Bradley and it’s a one-run game with the tying run in scoring position, but Sherriff whiffs Xander Bogaerts to preserve the Tampa lead. In the bottom of the 8th SS-2 Bogaerts makes his second error of the game, and after two walks load the bases the Red Sox summon Robbie Ross from the pen, with their closer out of commission after his round one appearance. Ross responds by stranding the runners and the game heads to the 9th with Boston needing a run to stay alive. The Rays opt to stick with Sherriff, which will burn him for the final, but it is worth it as he sets down the Red Sox to close out the 5-4 win and send the Rays to the regional title game.
The top seeded 2022 Braves were hoping to live up to their ELO hype as one of the 50 best teams in history, but in this semifinal they would need to get past the 2006 Brewers who had pulled off a come-from-behind win in round one. It didn’t hurt that the Braves rotation was crazy good and Max Fried (14-7, 2.46) was a second round starter who finished second in the Cy Young voting; the Brewers had no such luck with Chris Capuano (11-12, 4.03) being their best option. In the top of the 2nd, Matt Olson hits his 3rd homer of the regional, a 2-run shot that puts the Braves up briefly until an error by Braves 3B-3 Austin Riley helps set up a two-run double from Tony Graffanino that rapidly ties things in the bottom of the inning. And the Brewers don’t let up as they surge into the lead in the 3rd courtesy of a 2-run bomb by Prince Fielder, although the Braves pull back to within one in the 6th on doubles from Dansby Swanson and Michael Harris. Then Travis d’Arnaud leads off the 7th by homering off Capuano’s card, and the Brewes opt to try Rick Helling out of the pen, and he gets bailed out when 1-14+2 Ozzie Albies is gunned down trying for third on a single. In the 8th, Harris locates Helling’s solid 6-5 HR result to put the Braves ahead, which brings the Brewers to their last outs in the bottom of the 9th. Fried gets two quick outs, but then Geoff Jenkins singles and Graffanino rips a liner towards RF-3 Acuna; it gets by him for a double that scores Jenkins and the Brewers now have the winning run in scoring position. With the game on the line, the Braves summon Raisel Iglesias and his 0.34 ERA and he fans David Bell to push the game to extra innings. Helling completes his last inning of eligibility in the bracket by retiring Olson with two runners aboard, so it’s Carlos Villanueva’s turn as the Brewers get down into the more uninspiring part of their bullpen. Neither team can do much until Harris leads off the 13th with a triple off Villanueva’s card; Villanueva retires two straight and looks like he’s going to strand Harris, but PH William Contreras crushes one for a 2-run shot and his teammates mob him at the plate. Iglesias has two outs of eligibility left in the bottom of the 13th, and he gets those two in a row but has to turn it over to closer Kenley Jansen to get the final out. And get it he does, fanning Fielder to send the Braves to the finals with a 7-5 win that took 13 innings.A rarity in the regional finals with the two top seeded teams facing off, the pennant-winning 2020 Rays and the 101-win 2022 Braves each aiming to survive and advance. The Rays would have to overcome the usage challenges of the pandemic season, with their biggest weapon in phenom Randy Arozarena not available until the 6th inning, and although mandatory #3 starter Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24) was not bad, he had some problems with the gopher ball that could spell disaster; the Braves had 20-game winner Kyle Wright (21-5, 3.19) who finished 10th in the Cy Young votes in the third slot of their strong rotation. Manual Margot begins the top of the 1st for the Rays with a single, and then he steals second and scores when Braves LF-2 Adam Duvall drops a Brandon Lowe flyball. However, Snell hands the lead to the Braves in the bottom of the 3rd by fielding an Austin Riley grounder and throwing it into right field, allowing two runs to score, and then it’s none other than Matt Olson finding Snell’s solid 6-5 HR for his fourth blast of the regional; when another run scores on a passed ball by C-3 Michael Perez the Braves lead 5-1 after three innings. When Snell issues a walk to lead off the 4th he’s gone for Aaron Slegers, but that proves disastrous as Riley and Michael Harris go back to back for homers, and after an Olson double Travis d’Arnaud hits d’Homer for their second 5-run inning in a row for Atlanta. D’Arnaud hits his second HR of the game in the 6th, a solo shot that makes things even uglier, and the Rays late-inning replacements make no difference as Wright finishes the game with a one-hitter–that leadoff single in the first inning. And the Braves, who couldn’t do the job in the 2022 postseason, prove quite capable of doing it here as they crush the Rays 11-1 and earn the regional crown; Matt Olson’s four homers and seven RBI earn him bracket MVP recognition although he was just one of many weapons, with d’Arnaud, Harris and Riley all enjoying strong performances.
Interesting card of Regional #254: With only a couple of these opportunities left in the regional phase of this tournament, it seems fitting to feature the NL MVP from the final season of the die cut cards that were the last to have the look and pattern of the Strat cards I grew up with; he even has that the “2-10” pattern etched into my brain by the 1927 Babe Ruth old-timers card. Although his team didn't get past the first round of the bracket, Schmidt didn’t have a ton of help; he did what he could that season at age 36, winning his 3rd and final MVP to go along with his 10th and final Gold Glove award and his final league home run and RBI titles. Back in the early days of my Strat playing in the 60s and 70s, we would assemble these ridiculously overpowered teams out of Hall of Fame, Old Timers, and whatever current seasons we happened to have, but third base was always a bit of a challenge. There were a few guys who could hit but not field, and then there were a bunch of guys who could field but would end up batting ninth on those teams alongside eight other legendary players. I’m pretty sure that it was this guy who put an end to that shortage of options.