Tuesday, January 14, 2025

SUPER-REGIONAL I:  There had been 8 pennant winners starting out in this group of 64, but the only one of them to reach the super-regional level were the purveyors of the “shot heard round the world”, the 1951 Giants.  However, there were some other top flight teams in here, including a Tigers team that included many of the members of their great 1984 team (which did not make the super-regional level), a very good Blue Jays squad, and one of the two Phillies teams represented here was strong.  The remaining teams had middling records but had proved unbeatable during the regionals, so it seemed to me that any of them could win it.  The ELO rankings had the Bobby Thomson Giants as slight favorites over the Jays in the finals, although I remembered those Phillies teams of the aughts as extremely tough in this format and I wouldn't be surprised to see them make the next level.


Round 5 action

The 1986 Tigers won 87 games and marched through Regional #65 defeating the formidable 1930 A’s in the regional final; Randy O’Neal (3-7, 4.33) would get the round four start and he was happy to see that Darrell Evans had recovered from an injury suffered during the regional, bolstering a strong lineup.  The 2014 Phillies were a 73-89 team, down to their last option in the rotation, Kyle Kendrick (10-13, 4.61), and CF Ben Revere had still not recovered from an injury in the regional final, so they were decided underdogs although they had many of the same guys who had made magic in the tournament thus far–including another Phils entry in this super-regional.  Alan Trammell quickly discovers Kendrick’s solid 5-9 HR result in the top of the 1st and two batters later Kirk Gibson rolls one on his own card;  Darnell Coles singles and Lance Parrish smacks yet another solid HR, to be fair to Kendrick on the batter’s card, but the Phillies phans have no desire to be fair to Kendrick and are calling for his head.  However, by tournament rules Kendrick has to remain in the game for 5 runs or 5 innings, but he cooperates with the wishes of the fans as after SS-2 Jimmy Rollins drops an Evans grounder, singles from Chet Lemon and Dave Collins produce another run.  That means Kendrick can exit with 2/3rd of an inning pitched, and 35-year old Cliff Lee, with insufficient innings to start, gets a shot at long relief; he strikes out Lou Whitaker for the latter’s second out of the inning and Philadelphia finally gets a chance to bat, down 5-0.  They do nothing, and Lee holds off the Tigers until the 5th, when Evans triples and the Phils summon Ken Giles, but 2B-2 Chase Utley drops out #3 to score Evans and extend the Detroit lead.  However, O’Neal’s no-hitter through 4 innings abruptly ends in the bottom of the 5th with three straight hits, and RBI doubles from Ryan Howard and Domonic Brown quickly cut the margin to 6-3.  A sac fly by Chase Utley in the 7th and it’s now 6-4 and the Tigers go wholesale with defensive upgrades, although they decide to stick with a tiring O’Neal for the time being.  In the 8th, Rollins makes his second error of the game (and the Phils’ 4th) and Gibson follows by crushing his second homer of the game.  At that point the fight seems to go out of the Phils and their fans, and Chet Lemon gloves the final out of the game to send the Tigers on with an 8-4 victory.  

The 1951 Giants were one of the few pennant-winners to survive a regional, perhaps because they demonstrated an ability to survive in live-or-die games in real life.  Their rotation had provided three complete game wins in the regional and Jim Hearn (17-9, 3.62) was a strong option as the #4 starter, while 2B Eddie Stanky was now ready to go after getting hurt in the regional semifinals.  They had defeated a pennant-winning Mets team in the regional final, and now they moved on to face a more humble 82-80 1975 Mets.  However, these Mets had pulled off three straight upsets over good teams, although Hank Webb (7-6, 4.07) would be on a short leash with the Mets hoping to be able to hand the game off to a good bullpen.  In the top of the 1st, young Willie Mays doubles to score one but 1-15 Monte Irvin is nailed at the plate; Mays himself scores on a Bobby Thomson single and the Mets are down 2-0 before they can bat.  Thomson records another RBI on a single past LF-4 Mike Vail, with Mays taking 3rd and then scoring on a Don Mueller fielder’s choice; the Mets don’t get a hit until Del Unser’s single in the 4th but that leads to nothing.  Mueller adds an RBI double in the 5th and that’s the cue for the Mets to clear the Webb for Skip Lockwood and his 1.50 ERA who ends the inning but the Mets now trail by five.  Mays is robbed of another RBI in the 6th when 1-16 Al Dark is cut down trying to score on a double from the Say Hey Kid, but once again it’s Thomson with another shot, a single under the glove of SS-3 Bud Harrelson and Mays scores easily.  However, Hearn abruptly falls apart in the bottom of the inning, with RBI singles from Felix Millan, Ed Kranepool and Rusty Staub suddenly cutting the lead to 6-4, and the Giants realize that the reason they have all those CG wins is that they have no bullpen to speak of.  But in the top of the 7th Al Dark converts a TR 1-4/flyB with two outs and two more Giants runs are plated, so they hope that Hearn can hang on with the additional insurance.  Staub drives in another run in the 8th with a double and the tying run comes to the plate in the form of Dave Kingman, who rips a single that scores two and it’s now a one-run game.  The Giants have to admit that Hearn has become the Hit Man, and Al Corwin is summoned from the pen and he immediately induces a DP ball to send the game to the 9th.   With Lockwood now burnt for the super-regional, the Mets move to Bob Apodaca, but Whitey Lockman finds and converts Bob’s HR 1-5/flyB for a solo shot and the Giants hand Corwin a 2-run lead to hold in the bottom of the 9th.  The persistent Mets get two singles with one out to bring the winning run to the plate, but Corwin puts down Harrelson and Millan and the Giants survive the 9-7 battle to advance.

The 1985 Blue Jays won 99 games and the AL East before going down in seven games in the ALCS, and they had ridden their well-rounded combination of pitching, hitting, and defense to take Regional #70 as the favorites.  The depth of their rotation was in evidence here with Jim Clancy (9-6, 3.78) getting the start.  They faced the 1973 Twins, who were a .500 team with an 81-81 record, but were fortunate to have a solid #4 starter in Bill Hands (7-10, 3.49) although that was about the only Hands the team had, because the dreadful Twins defense was enough to give any pitcher nightmares.  In the bottom of the 1st, George Bell rolls a two-out gbA++ with Tony Fernandez held at first;  Lloyd Moseby then misses a HR split but drives in both runners with the resulting double.  The Twins threaten in the top of the 2nd but 1-15 Larry Hisle learns firsthand about Jesse Barfield’s arm and he’s cut down trying for the extra base to end the threat.  In the bottom of the inning, Rance Mullineks doubles and he dashes home on a two-out single from Tony Fernandez that extends Toronto’s lead to 3-0.  An RBI single from Tony Oliva puts Minnesota on the board in the 3rd, but in the 5th the Jays respond with an RBI single from George Bell and a Moseby sac fly that further extends the Jays lead.  An Ernie Whitt single in the 6th and it’s Hands off, with the Twins bringing in their lone decent reliever in Bill Campbell and he keeps any runs from plating.  Oliva drives in his second run with a 2-out single in the 8th, but he can’t do it by himself and the Jays wrap up a 5-2 win and punch a ticket to round five and the top of their formidable rotation.

The Zoom game of the week had two partisans at the helm of their favorite teams, with TT taking on the 2005 Phillies and ColavitoFan manning (Rick, not Payton) the 1976 Indians.  The Phils won 88 games, but their teams from this era have had remarkable success in this project; however, #4 starter Vincente Padilla (9-12, 4.71) had some frightening results on his card and CF Kenny Lofton was still out with an injury suffered in the regional.  On the other hand, the Indians only managed an 81-78 record, but again Cleveland teams of that vintage had outperformed expectations, with the ‘75 team winning the very first regional of the tournament; spot starter Stan Thomas (4-4, 2.30) had an imposing card and looked to be a great equalizer.  Both managers quickly tired of my terrible dice rolling, and requested that my brother Chuck roll the bones in the hope that the issue was not a heritable trait.  Sure enough, Chuck manages to convert a HR 1-5/flyB split on Thomas’ card and the Phils jump to lead in the 2nd on the resulting Jimmy Rollins solo homer.   However, some sloppy fielding by Rollins in the bottom of the 5th helps load the bases, and Rico Carty draws a walk to tie the game; Chuck’s dice-rolling seems to be cooling off and the game has developed into a pitcher’s duel.  When Padilla gets into a little trouble to begin the 6th, TT decides that dueling with him is asking for trouble, and Aaron Fultz is summoned and he snuffs out the threat.  In the 7th, Pat the Bat Burrell puts the bat on one and sends it deep into the recesses of Cleveland Stadium to put the Phils ahead, and Dave Laroche comes out of the Indians pen; although Laroche ends that threat, injury replacement Jason Michaels raps an RBI single in the 8th for additional insurance.  Billy Wagner then comes in to pitch the final two innings and although he makes things more exciting than he should have, he escapes unscathed and the Phillies move on to round five with a 3-1 victory.

The survivors:  round 5

By the time teams reach round five, those survivors are usually pretty good, and the 1986 Tigers and 1951 Giants were no exception.  These squads were also back to the top of their rotation in a matchup of 20-game winners; the Giants’ Sal Maglie 23-6, 2.93) would attempt to barber the Tigers, while Detroit would have Jack Morris 21-8, 3.27) trying to avoid any Ralph Branca impressions, a valid concern given Morris’s gopher ball tendencies. The Tigers get three baserunners in the top of the 2nd but come away empty-handed when AA Kirk Gibson is tossed out trying to steal on C-1 Wes Westrum.  But NY is less fortunate in the 3rd, as Maglie surrenders an RBI double to John Grubb, but he strands two Tigers in scoring position to keep the Detroit lead at 1-0.  Detroit quickly relinquishes the lead in the bottom of the inning, as a 2-base error by SS-2 Alan Trammell sets up an RBI single from Hank Thompson that ties the game.  In the 4th, Monte Irvin misses Morris’s HR 1-11 split with a 12, but Morris apparently feels bad for Irvin and lets him score by committing a two-out two-base error on a Westrum grounder.  However, the Tigers respond in the top of the 5th when Trammell finds and converts Maglie’s 6-5 HR split for a 2-run blast, and then RF-3 Monte Irvin misplays a Grubb single to put a runner in scoring position, who scores when Lance Parrish raps a single off Maglie’s card to put the Tigers back on top by a 4-2 margin.  Hank Thompson immediately responds by leading off the bottom of the inning by converting Morris’s HR split; that seems to send Morris into a tailspin, as three straight baserunners culminate in a Willie Mays RBI single that ties it, and then Don Mueller finds Morris’s solid HR result this time, good for a 3-run homer and a trip to Branca-ville for Morris as Bill Campbell has to come in to record the final out of the inning.   However, the Tigers aren’t done yet; two straight hits to start the 7th and a Kirk Gibson sac fly cuts the GIants lead to 7-5.  But Mueller also isn’t finished making his statement, leading off the bottom of the 8th by converting Campell’s HR split for his second homer of the game, and Sal the Barber clips the Tigers, and there are no heroics this time from Gibson as he makes the final out of the game.  And so the bracket favorite Giants gain a berth in the super-regional final with a back and forth 8-5 win.  

With two teams representing favorites for some of the regular Friday Night Strat participants, this round five matchup had to be saved up for Friday night Zooming:  the Tall Tactician managing the 2005 Phillies and Brett Myers (13-8, 3.72)  against Eaglesfly and the 1985 Blue Jays and perennial trivia answer Dave Stieb (14-13, 2.48).  In the pregame conference at home plate, TT wins the coin flip and selects my brother Chuck to roll the dice for the Phils, while the Jays will be stuck with my terrible rolling, and it’s easy to spot the looks of concern in the Toronto dugout.  Still, with both teams returning to the top of their rotation, it looked like a pitching duel might be forthcoming, but neither starter looked sharp out of the gate.   Rance Mullineks singles home a run in the top of the 2nd to put the Jays ahead, but the Phils keep pace as Pat Burrell converts Stieb’s HR split for a solo shot, thanks to some nifty dice rolling from Chuck.  Not to be outdone, George Bell drives in two more in the top of the 3rd and the Jays retake the lead, but it doesn’t last long as Bobby Abreu counters with a two-run double in the bottom of the inning and once again the game is tied.  At that point, Myers settles down but Stieb continues to be plagued by control problems, and the normally sharp Toronto defense doesn’t help either as an error by Damaso Garcia in the 5th sets up an RBI single by Burrell that puts the Phillies ahead for the first time in the game.   When Chuck converts a TR 1-3 off Stieb in the 6th, Eaglesfly has seen enough and Tom Henke and his solid 6-column of strikeouts is summoned; he bears down and strands the runner at third to keep it a one-run game.  Trying to keep pace in the sibling rivalry dice department, I manage to convert three straight stolen base attempts for the Jays, albeit with the highest successful roll possible, but none of them lead to runs as Myers becomes increasingly dominant as the innings roll on.  Still, the font on Myers’ solid 5-9 home run result seems to get larger as the game gets later, so TT moves to Aaron Fultz in the 8th to try to bring it home, hoping to preserve Billy Wagner for future rounds.  And Fultz turns out the lights on the Jays, who didn’t record a hit after the 4th inning, as the Phillies take the 4-3 win and earn a berth in the super-regional final.  

Super-regional finals:

With the Tall Tactician having led the 2005 Phillies in two previous Zoom games to the rarefied atmosphere of the super-regional final, an emergency Zoom had to be called to provide the Phils with their best shot against the favored 1951 Giants, who had been cruising through the tournament proving that the shot heard round the world was just part of a larger barrage.  Taking no chances, TT also enlisted my brother Chuck to roll the dice on his behalf, a strategy that had worked against the Blue Jays in round five, while here in the finals it was going to be my usually uncooperative dice on behalf of the Jints. Still, I liked my pitching chances, with Larry Jansen (23-11, 3.04) winning 20+ for the Giants facing off against the Phils’ Jon Lieber (17-13, 4.20), who had both a solid and a split homer for the Giants to aim for.  And in the top of the 2nd the gophers moved in to Citizens Bank Park, as Wes Westrum crushes a 3-run homer and Eddie the Brat Stanky follows up a few batters later with a 2-run shot–both of them on the batters’ cards, and both of them on splits that I actually converted for a change.  Then, in the 4th Al Dark turns the lights out in Philly with another 3-run homer on another converted split, and even the Phanatic was seen heading for the exits.   Meanwhile, Jansen holds the Phils hitless until the bottom of the 4th, when the bats come alive with three hits, the third by Placido Polanco to get them on the board, although they strand two men on to squander an opportunity to decrease the gap further.  When Willie Mays fails to convert Lieber’s HR split in the 5th, TT sends Lieber packing and Ugueth Urbina comes in, baffling both the heart of the Giants order and the spell-checker, to end the threat.  He and Billy Wagner proceed to lock down the Giants’ bats, and a Ryan Howard RBI single in the 8th provides a little spark of hope for a comeback, but it’s not going to happen as Jansen wraps up the complete game 8-2 win, sending the Giants on to the final group of 32.

Interesting card of Super-Regional I:   Back in the days of the old, beloved card looks, there was one particular pattern that only seemed to occur among players of a particular type.  The player type in question usually involved some slugger who belted quite a few homers, but suffered from a dismal batting average, typically accompanied by a bunch of strikeouts.  The pattern itself involved hiding all of the home run results at obscure spots like 11 & 12, or 2 & 3, with large expanses of real estate in the middle of the card dedicated to whiffs.  Although even as a kid I understood the probability underlying the roll of two six-sided dice, I still never liked having those homers stuck in the nether reaches of the card, so I probably avoided these types of guys more than I should have back in those days. One of the prototypes of this type of player was the infamous Dave Kingman, but in 1975 he finally managed to avoid that pattern and get a card with home runs in "reasonable places", although he didn't find those places often enough to keep the Mets alive in the tournament.  Since the adoption of the ugly current patterns roughly 30 years ago, we don't see the old-school looks any more; I guess one upside is that the combination of power with low batting average and lots of strikeouts seems to describe 50% of all contemporary major leaguers, so at least they don’t have to give everyone this same pattern in modern card sets.  Still, I miss the variety of looks on the old cards, as well as the variety of different types of players we used to see, who just seemed more colorful to me than the big leaguers of today.



Saturday, December 28, 2024

IN MEMORIAM:  As I’ve done in previous years, as 2024 draws to a close I want to pay tribute to the all-star team of players that we have lost in the past 12 months.  Once again, those with remarkable eyesight may recognize some images of ancient cardstock that emphasizes how long these players have been a part of our life in Strat-o-matic form.  Unfortunately, this year’s squad is particularly good–the total WAR of the 9 in the starting lineup and the 4 starting pitchers sums to 679, not as high as the 794 sum resulting from the evil pandemic year 2020 (see my blog for that lineup), but I’m sure that the 2024 group would give them a run for their money in a 7-game series.  All of these players have made multiple appearances in my endless tournament, and some of them bring back dice-rolling memories that go back 50 years for me.  They will be missed by their families, friends, and fans, but their baseball skills–both strengths like Rickey’s speed and Willie’s bat, and weaknesses, like Beltin’ Bill Melton’s glove–will live on, captured on cardstock as long as we Strat enthusiasts are able to keep rolling those dice.  




Thursday, December 26, 2024

SUPER-REGIONAL H:  Although four different pennant winners began competing in this group of 64 teams, none of them made it past the regional semifinals.  However, in this group of eight regional winners, the 2014 Tigers had been the top seeds in their group, and most of the rest were #2 or #3 seeds, with the exception of one of the last two surviving Rockies teams in the tournament, and a 2013 Marlins team that had been rated as the worst squad in their bracket.  There were two different 21st century versions of the Mets, and a Red Sox team from the season after they broke the curse of the Babe, among the competitors.  The ELO rankings predicted that those Red Sox were the cream of the crop and that they would best the Tigers in the super-regional finals; however, I did have a recollection of Pete Alonso just dominating the regional for the 2019 Mets and if he were to continue that streak, I think all bets would be off.


Round four action

This round four matchup pits Brooklyn against Queens for a BQE faceoff.  The 1930 Dodgers (or Robins, as they went by at the time) were the oldest team in this super-regional, and the team was what you would expect from one going 86-68 in that crazy hitting year in the NL:  their lowest batting average in the starting lineup was .294, and Babe Herman’s .393 with 35 homers was only good for 5th in the MVP voting.  Of course, the pitching from that season suffered accordingly, but Watty Clark (13-13, 4.19) was not a terrible option for the #4 starter.  The 79-83 2010 Mets had survived three straight one-run games in the regionals, as well as a slew of injuries but everyone was now healthy except for their #1 starter Johan Santana; this start would go to Hisanori Takahashi (10-6, 3.61).  The Dodgers start off hot against Takahashi, with Ike Boone ripping an RBI single and another run scores when Mets SS-2 Jose Reyes drops a DP ball; Del Bissonette adds a single that makes it 3-0 in favor of Brooklyn.  The Mets do catch a break when Al Lopez misses a HR 1-14 split and gets stranded at 2nd in the third inning, but they leave the bases loaded without scoring in the bottom of the inning.   The Mets finally get on the board in the bottom of the 4th as Carlos Beltran leads off with a homer, and Takahashi appears to be settling down so things could get interesting.  When the Dodgers slap two singles in the 8th, the Mets move to closer Francisco Rodriguez, and he ends the inning with one pitch as 3B-3 David Wright turns a clutch DP.  In the bottom of the inning, Josh Thole finds a 2-out double on Clark’s card and Jason Bay races home from first to make it a one-run game; a walk to #9 hitter Luis Castillo and then Angel Pagan locates a solid double on Clark’s card.  Thole and Castillo both dash home, and now it’s a one-run game–in favor of the Mets.  That makes it up to FRod in the top of the 9th, and although Gilbert singles and reaches scoring position with two out, FRod whiffs Babe Herman for the final out and for the 4th straight time the Mets survive a one-run game and advance.  

Since the team was down to one of its last two survivors in this tournament, I had to bring in brother Chuck for a Zoom game of the week to manage his favorite franchise, the 2003 Rockies, who had bludgeoned their way through the regional finals in characteristic Coors Field fashion with two grand slams but had lost catcher Charles Johnson to injury for this game.  Also unfortunately for Chuck, another Rockies characteristic is bad pitching, and the #4 starter in their rotation, Jose Jimenez (2-10, 5.22), had a card that did not inspire confidence.  I would be manning the 2014 Tigers, who had a rotation that was sufficiently strong that I didn’t rate Justin Verlander as one of the four best starters, as I picked Anibal Sanchez (8-5, 3.43) to go as #4 in the rotation.  The Rockies made me question that decision as Sanchez issues a leadoff walk, which was followed by an RBI triple from Larry Walker, who scored on a sac fly from Todd Helton and it was 2-0 in the top of the 1st.  However, the gruesome card of Jimenez quickly comes into play in the bottom of the inning, as the Tigers roll hit after hit on the pitcher’s card and by the time the dust settles, they hold a 3-2 lead.  They extend that in the 2nd as Ian Kinsler contributes an RBI single, and Chuck is contemplating intentionally walking four straight batters just to allow a 5th run so he could get JImenez out of the game.   However, that threat seems to galvanize Jimenez, who tosses a few perfect innings and he is able to complete his requisite five innings without further damage.   The Rockies then bring in Julio Lopez, who tosses two perfect innings, and in the 8th they go to the franchise save leader, Brian Fuentes (which was the 7th inning trivia question for Chuck).  But Nick Castellanos adds an RBI double in the 8th and the Rockies just can’t touch Sanchez, who ends up completing a 3-hitter as the Tigers win 5-2 and move on to round 5.

I had remembered the 86-76 2019 Mets’ journey through Regional #61 as having been powered by Pete Alonso, and indeed he homered in all three games of that regional to provide the winning margin for all three.  What I had forgotten is that they had lost LF Jeff McNeil, DH Dominic Smith, and 3B Todd Frazier to prolonged injuries, and they would be limping into the super-regionals although Marcus Strohman (10-13, 3.22) was a pretty fair #4 starter.  The 1980 Reds had enough parts left from the Big Red Machine to post 89 wins, although it was a solid rotation that pushed them through Regional #62 despite defensive problems in the outfield; swingman Joe Price (7-3, 3.57) was tapped for the round four start.   In the top of the 1st, Alonso misses his HR split but 1-11+2 JD Davis is able to score from first on the resulting double, courtesy of a 13 split.  Meanwhile, the Red start off the bottom of the inning with three straight singles but fail to score, as AA stealer Dave Collins is thrown out trying to steal 2nd by C-4 Wilson Ramos.  Then, in the 2nd the Reds try to even the injury score as SS Dave Concepcion is out for five games, and neither team seems to have any bodies left on the bench.  That quickly proves eventful, as Alonso knocks a two-out single under the glove of injury replacement SS-3 Ron Oester and Brandon Nimmo finds a double for two runs, although the Reds get those back in the bottom of the 3rd as Ken Griffey, not yet known as Sr., cracks a 2-run homer and it’s 3-2 Mets after three.  A Joe Panik RBI single adds to the lead in the top of the 4th, and the Reds respond with an injury to 2B Junior Kennedy for 7 games and there aren’t any infielders left in the city of Cincinnati.   Collins gets thrown out stealing second once again in the 5th, and the Reds are wondering what they did to face such karmic retribution.  A walk in the 6th and the Reds decide that they may as well burn closer Tom Hume, who quickly ends the threat, and Johnny Bench pokes a solo homer in the bottom of the inning to make it a one-run game.  In the bottom of the 7th, a base hit by emergency 2B Harry Spilman and double by fellow injury replacement Oester that gets past LF-4 George Foster, and the Reds have the tying run at third and go-ahead run in scoring position with nobody out.  The Mets are not wild about their bullpen options with closer Seth Lugo needing to rest after the regionals, so they stick with Strohman and bring the infield in.  Collins rolls a gbB and the runner on third is out, but Collins finally steals second successfully and once again there are two runs in scoring position.  Again the infield comes in, but the roll is on Strohman’s HR split, and Joe Nolan converts the 1-6 split for a 3-run homer and an abrupt Cincinnati lead.  That’s it for Strohman, and Justin Wilson comes in to end the inning; for the Reds, Hume is now burnt and the Reds have limited options to replace him, hoping Doug Bair can finish out the game.  To support him, Cincinnati replaces their entire outfield for a big defensive upgrade and an equally big offensive downgrade, but Bair doesn’t need any more offense and he closes out the 6-4 win for the Reds, who advance with their closer toast and their starting double-play combo in the infirmary for the foreseeable future.  

The 95-win 2005 Red Sox may have lost to the eventual champion White Sox that season in the ALDS, but they did far better in this tournament than those Chisox, who lost in round one.  Meanwhile, these Red Sox squeaked through Regional #63 winning the three games by a total of four runs, and they were down to Matt Clement (13-6, 4.57) in the rotation.  On the bright side, they drew the worst surviving team in the bracket, one of the four worst among the 64 that originally began this super-regional: the 100-loss 2013 Marlins, who had inexplicably outscored their opposition by a total of 18 runs in Regional #64.  However, they would without one of their best players, SS Adeny Hechavarria, who still had a lingering injury from the regional, and #4 starter Jacob Turner (3-8, 3.74) had a card that looked worse than his record.  Things don’t get any more promising for the Marlins as their second batter of the game, Logan Morrison, has to leave with an injury in the bottom of the 1st.  In the top of the 3rd, Trot Nixon and David Ortiz knock back to back RBI doubles, but after loading the bases Marlins injury replacement SS Nick Green turns a key DP that keeps matters from getting worse.  Ortiz adds an RBI single in the 5th, and he lumbers home with two out when Jason Varitek misses a HR split for a double, so the Red Sox lead extends to 4-0.  However, in the bottom of the 5th Giancarlo Stanton, who had been a major force for the Marlins in their regional, swats a 2-run homer that cuts that lead in half, and the Marlins go to their pen to begin the 6th with Mike Dunn trying to keep the game in reach.  He strikes out the side, and he and then Steve Cishek hold the Red Sox offense in check.  Meanwhile, in the bottom of the 8th LF-4 Manny Ramirez watches a double bounce past him that puts two runners in scoring position with one out, so the Red Sox move to their pen for Mike Myers, but injury replacement Green doubles off Myers’ card to tie the game and all six Marlins fans in attendance are whooping it up.  Both Cishek and Myers do their jobs in the 9th, and the game heads to extra innings.  Neither team scores in the 10th, and the Marlins lose another to injury, this time LF Juan Pierre, and both relievers survive the 11th but are now toast for the super-regional.  Miami moves to Ryan Webb, but that proves to be a disaster, as Nixon and Ortiz again hit back to back doubles, and then Webb loads up the bases only to yield a triple to Bill Mueller; the onslaught continues as the Red Sox bat around and by the time the dust clears, Boston has scored seven and the Marlins have a steep hill to climb in the bottom of the 12th.  Armed with the huge lead, the Red Sox insert a terrible Curt Schilling, bloody sock and all, and he ends the Cinderella run as Boston ends up with an 11-4 win and the super-regional favorite survives an extra-inning scare and advances.

The survivors:  round five

It’s on to round five and the top of the rotation for the 2014 Tigers in the form of Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.15), who had tossed a 5-hit shutout in round one of the tournament.  Unfortunately for the 2010 Mets, top starter Johan Santana had been injured in his round 1 and he would not be ready to go for this game, meaning that #5 starter Jonathan Niese (9-10, 4.20) would get an unexpected (and unwanted by Mets fans) assignment.  And Niese gets into big trouble in the bottom of the 1st, with two singles and a walk loading the bases; he then issues a run-scoring walk to Miguel Cabrera, Torii Hunter follows with a 2-run double, and Alex Avila converts a SI* 1-5 for another run and it’s 4-0 Tigers after one.  In the 2nd, Rajai Davis leads off with a single, steals second, and scores on a Victor Martinez hit as Detroit extends its lead, and the first hit for the Tigers in the 3rd chases Niese and in desperation the Mets move to closer Francisco Rodriguez.  The Mets finally get on the board in the 5th when a run scores on a Jose Reyes grounder, but Nick Castellanos gets it back in the bottom of the inning with an RBI triple, and he scores on a Hunter sac fly and the Tigers now lead 7-1.  In the 8th, Tiger LF-4 JD Martinez misplays a Reyes single that leads to a David Wright RBI hit, but Scherzer gets some defensive upgrades in the 9th and he holds on for the 7-2 win that sends the Tigers to the super-regional final.

The 2005 Red Sox were the top-ranked team in the super-regional with a list of powerful weapons in the lineup, but their weak spot was a rotation that was middling at best, and although #1 starter Tim Wakefield (16-12, 4.15) could be baffling when the knuckler was knuckling, the ball could travel a long way when it didn’t.  On the other hand, the 1980 Reds had a dominating Mario Soto (10-8, 3.08) ready to go, but with lingering injuries to their starting SS and 2B the remnants of the Big Red Machine were down to a few spare parts.  But they take an early lead in the top of the 2nd when Dan Driessen nails the solid HR on Wakefield’s card for a solo shot, while Soto is throwing bullets, racking up 10 strikeouts in his first 5 innings.  In the 6th, George Foster converts a HR 1-7/flyB split on his own card for another solo homer to extend the lead, and Ken Griffey the elder adds a 2-out RBI triple in the 8th for insurance.   However, a leadoff error by emergency 2B-5 Harry Spilman and Soto loses his cool, allowing a single to Manny Ramirez and an RBI double to Jason Varitek that puts the tying run in scoring position with nobody out.  Up to the plate steps Bill Mueller, and it’s a 1-12, LOMAX, and the inning ends with a triple play and you can hear a pin drop in Fenway.  In the 9th, C-1 Varitek drops a popup and a frustrated Wakefield grooves one to Spilman, who lofts it over the Monster and the Reds move on with a 5-1 win, with Soto allowing 7 hits while striking out 12.

Super-regional finals

The super-regional final was between two good teams (e.g., ELO ranks within the top 1000) although I never would have picked either to get this far out of the 64 squads that began this super-regional.  The 2014 Tigers would be slight favorites here, and had a solid David Price (15-12, 3.26) on the mound with a fully rested bullpen and a healthy lineup.  In contrast, the 1980 Reds were still without both halves of their injured starting DP combo, and although Tom Seaver (10-8, 3.64) was a Hall of Famer, he was no spring chicken and he had bad issues with the gopher ball.   In the 2nd, an error by Reds emergency 2B-5 Harry Spilman loads the bases and #9 hitter Andrew Romine raps a 2-out 2-run single to give the Tigers the lead.   A sac fly from JD Martinez extends the lead in the 3rd, and in the 4th Alex Avila misses Seaver’s HR 1-14 split but eventually scores anyway on a Rajai Davis single.  Ian Kinsler then pokes an RBI single and it’s obvious that Tom isn’t terrific today, so he’s pulled for a different Tom (Hume) after only 3 innings pitched.  Hume gets out of the inning but only after JD Martinez adds an RBI single and the Tigers lead 6-0.   The Reds get on the board when Ray Knight converts Price’s HR split to lead off the bottom of the 5th, but they miss an opportunity in the 6th loading the bases with one out but coming away with nothing to show for it.  The Tigers do the same in the 7th, but they convert with a passed ball from C-1 Johnny Bench scoring one runner and a 2-out single by Kinsler scoring the other two.   Rajai Davis adds a solo homer off Reds reliever Doug Bair in the top of the 9th just for emphasis, and although Johnny Bench leads off the bottom of the 9th with a long homer, Tigers C-2 Avila fields three consecutive chances perfectly and Price finishes up a 5- hitter in which he strikes out 10.  And the Tigers take the super-regional crown with the 10-1 blowout, riding a solid rotation and timely hitting up and down the lineup to win six straight and advance to the final field of 32.

Interesting card of Super-Regional H:
  Although his team got nowhere in the super-regional, I still had to feature a card from one of my favorite Strat season sets ever.  The 1930 set has the beautiful die-cut cards, with the classic card patterns, and it highlights one of the most unique seasons in baseball history, particularly for the National League, which had a league batting average of .303–yes, you read that right, that was the average, which was higher than the AL batting leader in 1968.  And one of the primary players pulling up that average was this guy, who proved that there wasn’t just one formidable Babe around at the time.  In this season, he set Dodgers franchise records for batting average, home runs, RBIs, total bases, extra base hits, doubles, runs scored, and slugging percentage–and as of now, most of those franchise records are still standing.  Yet, somehow this Babe only finished 5th in the MVP voting that season.  Perhaps it was because he was only the runner-up for the batting title to Bill Terry’s .401 average; perhaps it was Hack Wilson’s record-setting 191 RBI that season.  It might have been that Brooklyn just wasn’t that good a team, or that Herman had kind of a reputation as a terrible fielder and a goof, having infamously initiated a play earlier in his career where three Dodgers ended up on 3rd base at the same time, about which Ring Lardner notoriously wrote “Babe Herman did not triple into a triple play, but he doubled into a double play, which is the next best thing.”   At any rate, this is still one of my favorite cards from one of my favorite Strat seasons; unfortunately, I fear that the game company will never release another pre-war season that they haven’t done already, and in my humble opinion we Strat-o-philes are all poorer for it.

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

SUPER-REGIONAL G:   There were five pennant winners that began in this group of 64 teams, but none of them made the super-regional level and only one even survived to their regional final.  Of the eight teams that did make up this batch, not a one was the top seed in their regional, but most (with one #8 seed exception) had ratings indicating that they were good teams, and their presence here was evidence that they were survivors.  Going by those rankings, the matchup in the final would be between two very different teams, the pitching and defense-rich 1954 White Sox and the homer-happy 2019 Twin, with the Sox rated as being the favorite.  However, taking my White Sox jinx into account, I figured that was unlikely, so I guessed that it would be the 1924 Reds would take the bracket in a 100th anniversary celebration, as they had outscored their opposition 25-7 in blowing through Regional #51.


Round 4 action

The 103-loss 1993 Mets were one of the worst teams to have won a regional, and now it was time to see if the clock was going to strike midnight on Cinderella in the super-regional.  They weren’t helped by a lingering injury to starting CF Ryan Thompson, although #4 starter Anthony Young (1-16, 3.77) was nowhere near as bad as his atrocious record would suggest.  The 78-win 1961 Indians were 20 games better than the Mets in real life, and they had powered through Regional #50 riding the longball and defeating the formidable 1984 Tigers in the finals.  It would be up to Wynn Hawkins (7-9, 4.07) to see if they could keep their run going.  The Indians get on the board first as 3B-4 Bobby Bonilla earns his perpetual Mets salary with a 2-base error that scores a run in the bottom of the 3rd, but Bonilla leads off the 4th with a single and he eventually races home on an Eddie Murray single to tie it up.  Chuck Essegian leads off the bottom of the inning with a tape measure homer to put Cleveland back on top, but Hawkins falls apart after getting two outs in the 6th, yielding three straight singles including a Jeff Kent RBI hit and Frank Funk is summoned from the pen and gets the final out but the game is tied once again.  However, in the 8th Bonilla triples and scores on a Murray single, both off Funk’s card, and the Mets lead for the first time in the game.  When Jimmy Piersall leads off the bottom of the 8th by missing Young’s HR 1-13/DO split with a 14 roll, the Mets move to Mike Maddux, but he’s not his brother and Tito Francona singles with Piersall racing home to tie the game entering the 9th inning.  However, that doesn’t last long as backup catcher Charlie O’Brien knocks a 2-run homer in the top of the 9th to send the Indians fans into a funk, and after three more straight hits the Indians are indeed de-Funked as they try Dick Stigman, but Bonilla laces a hit through a drawn-in infield and although Stigman then strikes out the side, the Indians enter the bottom of the 9th down 7-3.  With the big lead the Mets preserve Maddux and ask Jeff Innis to close out the game, but that looks unwise as a leadoff walk and a double on a missed HR 1-12 split from John Romano sets up an RBI single for Johnny Temple.  Innis then gets two outs but walks Piersall to bring up Francona with the bases loaded and the winning run at the plate.  But Francona pops out and the Mets’ unlikely run continues with the 7-4 win.

The Zoom game of the week was actually a doubleheader for the 1954 White Sox, who had somewhat miraculously made the World Series of TT’s project involving 20 of the greatest teams of all time.  In that project, I managed the Sox against the 1939 Yankees (the top ELO-rated team in history), and despite my Sox jinx they won the computer-based super-advanced game behind the strong arm of Sandy Consuegra.  Well, it just so happened that in my tournament they were now up in the super-regional after winning Regional #52, and it also just so happened that it was Consuegra’s (16-3, 2.69) in the rotation.  So, once again I would tempt my jinx and direct the Sox, this time in Basic form using good old cards and dice, against the 1924 Reds, who would be managed by ColavitoFan and who still retained many of the stars that rather suspiciously defeated the Sox in the Series in 1919.  Although the Reds had no home run power to speak of, they did hit a ton of triples and they had a remarkably deep rotation, with Dolph Luque (10-15, 3.16) being a strong option.  Consuegra had gone seven strong innings in the earlier computer game against the Yankees; perhaps he was showing signs of fatigue after that outing, because in the top of the 1st the Reds were relentless, batting around with particular assistance from Sox HOF 2B-2 Nellie Fox who booted a sure DP ball to provide Cincinnati with a quick 4-0 lead, a lead that could have been larger if they hadn’t left the bases loaded to end the inning.  That was not encouraging news for the Sox, who were not exactly an offensive powerhouse of a team, but in the bottom of the 2nd George Kell ripped a 2-out 2-run double that cut the lead in half to provide a glimmer of hope for the Comiskey faithful.  That glimmer seems to fade as an error by SS-1 Chico Carrasquel provides another unearned Reds run in the 3rd, but a Nellie Fox double in the bottom of the inning allows the Sox to keep pace and the Reds lead is 5-3 after three, but the Sox strengths of pitching and defense seem to have been left at home.  In the 4th, an Ed Roush triple and I go out to the mound to visit Consuegra and politely tell him that if he allows another run to score, I’ll not only pull him out of the game but also out of the state of Illinois.  This seems to strike a chord in him, as he settles in to strand Roush and proceeds to toss three consecutive perfect innings.  Meanwhile, in the bottom of the 7th PH Ron Jackson contributes an RBI double and he scores on a Carrasquel single to tie the game, and the roar of the crowd can be heard in useless DH Phil Cavarretta’s old ballpark on the north side.  ColavitoFan feels that Dolph has run out of Luque and Jakie May comes in to finish the inning, and he gets support in the top of the 8th with an RBI triple by Hughie Critz.  Consuegra gets another mound visit involving vague threats after putting on the Critz, and once again the strategy seems to work as he strands the runner but the Reds take a 6-5 lead into the bottom of the 9th.  A leadoff single by John Groth keeps the attention of the fans, and CF doesn’t like what he sees in May so Pete Donohue is brought in to try to finish things out.  But Kell pokes a squib single and PH Cass Michaels draws a walk to load the bases and put the winning run in scoring position with nobody out, and the top of the Sox order steps to the plate in the form of Chico Carrasquel, who owes his staff an unearned run.  In comes the infield, and Donohue delivers for a 2-9 roll, HR 1-8 and for a change I roll a low split of 6, and it’s a walk-off grand slam to the amazement of the Zoom crowd.  The Comiskey scoreboard explodes, discos are demolished across the city, and the Sox move on with the epic 9-6 win.

The only two 21st century teams in this bracket had a round four face-off, with the 2019 Twins being the favorite, a squad that clubbed 12 homers in the three games of their regional; they won 101 games and hit 307 team homers in that season, but Kyle Gibson (13-7, 4.84) was a hittable #4 starter and their bullpen had been taxed in a high-scoring regional final.  They faced the 89-73 2016 Orioles, who were built along similar lines as the Twins, but with less power and even worse pitching, as Wade Miley (9-13, 5.37) was their best option for a fourth starter.  Despite all that, the game begins as a pitcher’s duel, which ends when Pedro Alvarez begins the top of the 5th with a long homer that puts Baltimore in front 1-0.  In the bottom of the inning, O’s 2B-2 Jonathan Schoop drops a sure DP grounder because Twins 2B-3 Jonathan Schoop is bearing down on him, but Miley gets out of the jam with no damage.  However, in the 6th Max Kepler converts a HR 1-5 for a 2-run shot and a Twins lead, and an Alvarez single off Gibson’s card in the 7th sends the Twins to the pen for Sam Dyson, who prevents any damage.  When Miley starts off the 8th by issuing two walks, the O’s bring in closer Zach Britton and his 0.54 ERA, and he quickly dispatches the Twins to send the game to the top of the 9th with Baltimore still trailing by a run.  The Twins opt to burn Dyson since he’s pitching well, and this Dyson doesn’t suck as he strikes out the double agent Schoop to close out a hard fought 2-1 win in which the teams combine for only nine hits.  

The 83-71 1953 Cardinals had defeated a pennant winner to take Regional #56 as the #3 seed, but after three strong performances from the rotation, Joe Presko (6-13, 5.01) did not have a record that inspired confidence.  The 77-85 1990 Cubs had similar problems, with Steve Wilson (4-9, 4.79) facing his turn on the mound and 3B Luis Salazar was still out with a lingering injury from the regionals and would miss this round four game between old rivals.   Presko gets into trouble immediately as Andre Dawson rips a three run homer in the top of the 1st, but the Cards strike back in the bottom of the 4th when Ray Jablonski converts a 2-run triple off Wilson’s card.  Two batters later, Steve Bilko converts that same TR 1-5, and Del Rice follows with a “what’s that doing there” solid double on a 3-2 roll and the Cards take the lead.  When Red Schoendienst become the third batter of the inning to convert that 6-6 TR 1-5 split, another run scores and the Cubs insert Paul Assenmacher, who has an out at that roll.  When the Cubs single off Presko to begin the 6th, the Cards look for something in the pen but there ain’t much, so Presko continues and he immediately gives up a game-tying homer off his card to Mark Grace.  That convinces the Cards to try Hal White, who retires the side, but in the 7th Shawon Dunston doubles off White and then races home on a single by Dwight Smith, and the Cubs have regained the lead.  Mark Grace leads off the 8th with a double and he scores on a Ryne Sandberg single for additional insurance, which looks like it may be needed as Peanuts Lowrey doubles in the bottom of the inning and Assenmacher is out of gas.  That means that it’s time for the Wild Thing, as Mitch Williams comes out and he retires the side with nary a walk.  White holds in the top of the 9th, so it’s up to Williams in the bottom of the 9th, and a single by PH Eddie Stanky and two BBs off the Wild Thing’s card load the bases with two out for Jablonski.  But he grounds out harmlessly and the Cubs survive and advance with Williams getting the save in the 7-5 win.  

The survivors:  Round 5

Two teams that seemed to get things done with smoke and mirrors face off, with the 103-loss 1993 Mets battling the 1954 White Sox, who required a walk off grand slam in their previous game to reach this point.  Returning to the top of the rotation for round five was particularly good news for the Mets, who could send out Dwight Gooden (12-15, 3.45) against Virgil Trucks (19-12, 2.78) for the Sox, and the two starters had quite similar cards with nearly identical patterns.  The Sox pick up where they left off with three straight hits, the last one an RBI single for Minnie Minoso but 1-15 Nellie Fox is cut down trying for third on the hit to kill the rally.  Ferris Fain contributes a 2-out RBI single in the 3rd to make it 2-0 Chicago, and the Mets don’t get a baserunner until a Jeremy Burnitz single in the 5th.  They do load the bases with two away in the 6th, but Trucks strikes out Eddie Murray to keep the Mets off the scoreboard.  Burnitz leads off the 7th with a triple, and a sac fly from Jeff Kent makes it a one-run game while Gooden has found his groove and is blowing through the Sox lineup, assisted in the bottom of the 8th when Fox misses a HR 1-9 split with a 10 and gets stranded at second.  But Trucks bears down, and sets the heart of the Mets lineup down in order in the 9th to finish with a 4-hitter and send the Sox to the super-regional final by winning the 2-1 duel.

This round five matchup between the 1990 Cubs and the hammerin’ 2019 Twins was a relief for both squads, because they now were able to loop around to the top of their rotation.  For the Cubs, that involved a Hall of Famer in Greg Maddux (15-15, 3.46) although arguably the Twins’ Jose Berrios (14-6, 3.68) might have had a better season.  The Twins get a 2-out RBI single in the top of the 1st by Miguel Sano off Maddux’s card for a quick lead, but in the bottom of the inning Andre Dawson hawks one into the stands and the Cubs move ahead 2-1.  They squander an opportunity to move further ahead in the 3rd when 1-13+2 Mark Grace is cut down at the plate trying to score on a Hector Villanueva (or Villanova, if you’re Harry Caray) two-out single, and that run would have been useful because Sano leads off the 4th with a long homer.  However, the Twins take their turn as victims of my bad split rolls when Jonathan Schoop misses a HR 1-14 and gets stranded at second and the game remains tied.  In the bottom of the inning the Cubs quickly get two runners aboard but Joe Girardi hits into a triple play, taking note to recommend against that in his future managerial career.  In the bottom of the 7th, Dwight Smith converts Rosario’s HR split, located at 6-5, and the Cubs take the lead while the Twins summon Sergio Romo from a depleted bullpen.  But things don’t get any better, as Romo issues two straight walks and then two straight errors by C-4 Mitch Garver and SS-3 Jorge Polanco lead to a run on no hits for additional insurance.  It’s now up to Maddux and he tosses a perfect 9th as it’s Cubs win, Cubs win by a 4-2 score and they move on to an unexpected appearance in the super-regional final.

For the super-regional final, it’s time for the 1954 White Sox to hop on the L and travel to the north side to take on the 1990 Cubs in Wrigley, with the entire city taking sides.  The Sox would attempt to overcome my Sox jinx, which should be operating at full steam against a Cubs team, with stalwart Billy Pierce (9-10, 3.48) while the Cubs were hoping Mike Harkey (12-6, 3.26) would replicate his strong outing in the second round.  A two out single by Johnny Groth in the top of the 4th scores Ferris Fain to put the Sox on the board, but the Cubs respond in the bottom of the inning as Ryne Sandberg races home on a Hector Villanueva single to tie it at 1-1.  Minnie Minoso misses a HR 1-13 split to lead off the 6th but ex-Cub Phil Cavarretta finally does something useful, singling Minoso home to raucous boos from the bleachers.  However, again that lead doesn’t last long as 1B-1 Fain drops an Andre Dawson grounder and Villanueva rockets a 2-run homer onto Waveland Avenue and the Cubs move ahead 3-2.  In the 7th Nellie Fox misses that same HR 1-13 split on Harkey and the slowest runner in the game, Sherm Lollar, is out by a mile trying to score with two away, so the Cubs lead remains intact.  Dwight Smith then immediately rolls Pierce’s HR 1-11 split, which of course he doesn’t miss and the Cubs extend their lead to the delight of the yuppie scum filling the box seats.  And this time the White Sox have no 9th inning miracles up their sleeve as Harkey holds on for the 4-2 win, and the Cubs take the super-regional crown with their fourth straight victory over a higher-rated opponent.   

Interesting card of Super-Regional G: 
it was bad enough having the hated Cubs eliminate my ‘54 White Sox in the finals, but I also had to admit that Sox HOFer Nellie Fox wasn’t even the best second baseman on the field in that game.   That honor belonged to this guy, another HOFer who had his career year in OPS but only finished 4th in the MVP voting, despite being the first second baseman to lead the NL in homers since Rogers Hornsby in 1925.  Not only that, he became only the third major leaguer to post at least 40 home runs and 25 stolen bases in a season (trivia alert:  who were the first two?)   Finally, he also set a major-league record of 123 consecutive games at second without an error, completing a trifecta of a guy who could hit, run, and field, all at a crucial infield position.  Unfortunately, he didn’t get much of a chance to play in the big spotlight games, as the Cubs never won a pennant during his career and made only two appearances in the postseason–in which Sandberg posted a 1.098 OPS, clearly doing his part.  Part of the blame here may rest with bad Cubs management, and Sandberg’s frustration with these issues led to a brief retirement in 1994 because the Cubs didn’t seem serious about winning.  Indeed, as I was watching the Cubs plow through teams with better records in six rounds of this tournament, I had to wonder:  how could a team with this card, along with Greg Maddux and Andre Dawson in his prime, only manage a 77-85 record?  Whatever the reason, they certainly seem to have what it takes to survive and advance in the brutal single elimination format.


Friday, December 6, 2024

SUPER-REGIONAL F:  With all of the regionals in the tournament completed after a mere 44 years, we go deeper into the brackets with rounds four through six, the sixth such super-regional to be played.  The 64 teams that initially comprised this group included four pennant winners, but only one of those–the 1989 A’s of Bash Brothers fame–had survived to round four, and they had knocked off one of the other league champs on the way there.  Even so, two other squads in the 1927 Cardinals and the 1991 Dodgers had also been the top seeds in their regionals, while the remaining regional champs were mainly middling teams with one notable exception:  the 1957 A’s, who had triumphed in their regional despite being the worst rated in their group by a long shot.  Will their magic continue in the super-regional round, where teams must lead off with the bottom of their rotation?   According to the ELO ratings, the Bash Brothers are favored to take the bracket over the ‘27 Cards, if the latter can get past those ‘91 Dodgers in round four.


Round 4 action

The 1971 Giants won 90 games and the NL West, and they rode strong pitching that only gave up 12 hits across the three games of Regional #41.  With names like Mays, McCovey, Bonds, and Kingman in the lineup, they had preserved Hall of Famer and Cy Young vote-getter Juan Marichal (18-11, 2.94) for this start, presenting a formidable challenge for any team.  However, even though the 1983 Red Sox were a sub-.500 team at 79-83, they had four Hall of Famers of their own in Yaz, Eckersley, batting champion Wade Boggs and 4th place MVP Jim Rice; however, it was Mike Brown (6-6, 4.87) or a truly awful Eckersley (5.61 ERA) at the bottom of the rotation, and these Red Sox hadn’t played any team with nearly the rating of the Giants in winning Regional #42.  Both pitchers escape jams in the first few innings, but in the top of the 5th Willie Mays misses a HR split with  two out but Ken Henderson scores on the resulting double to give the Giants the lead.  Mike Gallagher raps a two-out single in the 6th and a surprising fleet Dave Kingman (1-15+2) slides under the tag to score and provide some insurance, and after Brown issues a walk the Red Sox dig through a spent bullpen and come up with Oil Can Boyd, who stops the squeaking but the Giants lead by two.  In the 8th, Kingman miss his HR split for the second time of the game, but an elderly McCovey creaks home and Kingman then scores on a misplayed grounder by Boyd.  A two out RBI single by Chris Speier scores the third run of the inning and the Giants are in firm control, as is Marichal as he completes the 6-hit shutout to lead San Francisco deeper into the super-regional, and a new turn through a rotation that tossed shutouts in three of the first four rounds.  

This is the type of game you expect to see in the super-regionals:  two #1 seeds from their regionals, each facing their stiffest challenge yet.  The 1927 Cardinals’ 92-61 record was the second best in the NL that season, with Frankie Frisch the MVP runner up with Jim Bottomley and Chick Hafey getting votes.  Pitchers Jesse Haines and Pete Alexander also got MVP support in those pre-Cy Young award days, but they had already had their turn in winning Regional #43 and Flint Rhem (10-12, 4.42) was a huge dropoff in the rotation.  The 1991 Dodgers went 93-69 with a lineup of elderly big names who had made those names in other places, but their rotation was no joke as Bobby Ojeda (12-9, 3.18) was only one of many good options for a #4 starter.  The Cards load the bases with nobody out in the top of the 1st, but Ojeda almost pitches his way out of the jam until his 2B-4 Juan Samuel drops a two-out grounder that gives St. Louis the one-run lead.  But Rhem gets reamed in the bottom of the 2nd, loading the bases with nobody out and then surrendering RBI singles to Samuel and Alfredo Griffin before a Darryl Strawberry homer makes it 6-1 and the Cards move to their only decent reliever, Fred Frankhouse.   They also respond with RBI singles from Wattie Holm and Ray Blades in the top of the 3rd that narrow the score to 6-3, but LA gets a 2-run triple from Strawberry who has completed the hard parts of a cycle in the first 3 innings, and when Eddie Murray doubles Straw home it’s 9-3 Dodgers.  The Cards show that they won’t go quietly with three more runs in the top of the 4th, fueled by a Frisch double, but they have to put in Art Reinhart in the 6th, and he yields a solid double off his card to Mike Scioscia, but 1-10+2 Kal Daniels is out at the plate to end the threat.  Ojeda then gives up a walk and a double off his card to lead off the top of the 7th, so with the tying run at the plate the Dodgers go to their much better bullpen for Jay Howell.  However, Holm sends a liner towards LF-4 Daniels who plays it into a 2-run single and it’s a one run game entering the 7th inning stretch.  Strawberry doubles in the bottom of the 8th to put him a single short of a cycle, but he’s stranded and the LA crowd jeers as he’s pulled for a defensive replacement for the 9th inning.  In the 9th, Taylor Douthit does draw a walk, but Holm hits into a game-ending DP accompanied by a meaningless injury, because the Cards go back into storage and the Dodgers survive 9-8 to move into round five.

The super-regional favorites were the 1989 A’s, the 99-win Series champions of Bash Brothers fame, but they would be facing an 84-win 1984 Royals team that had allowed a total of one run in their regional games, coming off two consecutive complete game shutouts.   This would be the Zoom game of the week, with ColavitoFan controlling the Royals while TT and Eaglesfly opted for a “college of coaches” approach in steering the A’s.  None of this managerial crew had much choice for the starting pitching as both teams were down to their #4 starters, KC’s Charlie Leibrandt (11-7, 3.63) and Oakland’s Storm Davis (19-7, 4.36).  In the 3rd the Royals get on the board with an unearned run when a ball bounces off the head of RF-3 Jose Canseco for a 2-base error, and Eaglesfly coaxes TT into intentionally walking George Brett to pitch to the feast or famine Steve Balboni.  However, that strategy goes bye-bye as Balboni crushes one into Mount Davis of the Coliseum and KC leads 4-0.  Carney Lansford and Mark McGwire drive in runs in the bottom of the 5th to narrow the lead to 4-2, but Davis quickly gets into a jam in the top of the 6th and is pulled in favor of Rick Honeycutt–who issues a bases loaded walk to PH Jorge Orta to extend the Royals lead.   Again Oakland responds, as Leibrandt gets into a jam of his own and gives way to closer Dan Quisenberry. But senior statesman Dave Parker pushes a run across and it’s now 5-3 KC, and the college of coaches are getting schooled by the split die as every attempt at adventurous baserunning ends in disaster.  The Royals get another RBI on a fielder's choice from Darryl Motley in the 7th, but Lansford converts the HR split on Quiz for a 2-run blast and it’s a one-run game entering the 9th.  The A’s have Dennis Eckersley on the hill to keep things close, but this time pitching to Brett in the top of the 9th proves to be a mistake as he smacks a solo shot to provide a little bit of insurance heading into the 9th.  ColavitoFan opts to try to preserve Quiz for later rounds and signals for Joe Beckwith to finish out the 9th, but Canseco greets him with a long solo shot and once again the lead is down to a run.  However, with two out in the bottom of the 9th it’s up to the last Oakland catcher, Ron Hassey; he can’t cope with Beckwith and the Royals hang on to pull off the 7-6 upset and send the Bash Brothers back to the storage drawers.

The 59-94 1957 A's were one of the first #8 seeds to win a regional, and their path to this super-regional was not easy either, as they had to defeat each of the top three teams in their bracket to get here.  Ironically, this team did far better in the tournament than the far more famous 1961 Yankees, with whom the A’s shared many players in common as the Yanks’ “farm team”.  They still had a number of decent options for a #4 starter, with Arnie Portocarrero (4-9, 3.92) getting the call.   Their opponents were the 1993 Reds, whose 73-89 record was not so great either, but these Reds had knocked off the top two teams in their regional; however, their pitching options were frightening and John Smiley (3-9, 5.62) was actually better than other options.  The Reds come up short in the bottom of the 1st when 1-10+2 Hal Morris is out at home on a 13 split for the final out.  Another baserunning fiasco costs them a run in the 2nd when A stealer Reggie Sanders is caught stealing immediately before Chris Sabo homers, but the Reds still lead 1-0 after two.  Lou Skizas finds a solid homer on Smiley in the top of the 3rd for a 2-run shot and a KC lead, but the Reds consider themselves fortunate that Smiley allows nothing else in his mandated five innings, and they go do reliever Jerry Spradlin to begin the 6th.  That proves to be a good thing as Hal Smith immediately rolls the number that would have been a solid homer on Smiley, and Spradlin holds on while a Barry Larkin triple in the bottom of the 7th ties the game.  Briefly, it turns out, as Skizas leads off the 8th with his second homer of the game, and with no bullpen to speak of it’s up to Portocarrero to get six outs.  But he doesn’t get it done in the 8th, issuing two walks and then committing an error to load the bases; Sabo then sends a grounder under the glove of SS-2 Joe DeMaestri and the game is tied heading into the 9th.  Spradlin holds serve in his final inning of eligibility in the top of the 9th, but so does Portocarrero and it’s extra innings between two bad teams that refuse to lose.  Johnny Ruffin is the Reds’ best option out of the pen, and he handles the A’s in the 10th.  Portocarrero is now down to his last inning, but Roberto Kelly leads off by converting a TR 1-3, and in comes the KC infield to try to cut off the winning run.  Portocarrero gets two outs with Kelly still stuck at 3rd, and the Reds send up PH Cecil Espy in the hopes that he can draw a walk.  But it’s a flyball to LF-3 Bob Cerv, and he waves at it as it goes by for the walk-off hit that sends the Reds forward with the comeback 4-3 win, with the team eager to revisit the top of their rotation after burning what little pen they have.  

Round 5 semifinals

As should be the case in a round five game, this matchup featured two good teams who would be looping back to their starters from round one; 1991 Dodgers and Tim Belcher (10-9, 2.62) against the 1971 Giants and John Cumberland (9-6, 2.92).   For such a significant game, it was fitting that Giants fan Alan G. from the Facebook groups made a Zoom appearance as the special guest roller for the San Francisco nine, while I would manage the Dodgers, which had been working out pretty well for elder statesmen on their roster thus far.  Both pitchers begin the game in good form, but in the bottom of the 3rd Cumberland issues a walk and then Brett Butler, who has consistently been a factor for several different teams in this tournament, converts a TR 1-8 off Cumberland’s card and the Dodgers have a 1-0 lead over their arch-rivals.  Eddie Murray then leads off the 4th for LA with a homer on his own card, and in the 5th Brett Butler once again demonstrates that, frankly, he doesn’t give a damn about my bad split die rolling, converting a HR 1-3 split off Cumberland for one of his two homers in ‘91.  Meanwhile, Belcher is giving Giants fans dyspepsia, and in the 7th Alan, knowing that runs are going to be hard to come by, shows his confidence in another Alan G., namely the 1-11+2 Alan Gallagher who sets sail for home on a Tito Fuentes double trying to break the ice.  But the split gods are uncooperative, and Gallagher is thrown out at home, probably by the dice-blessed Butler.  From there it gets no better; the Giants do have the meat of the order going for the 9th, but Belcher is up to the task, striking out Bonds, McCovey, and Kingman in succession to wrap up the four-hit shutout and the Dodgers win 3-0 to earn a berth in the super-regional final.  

These next round five contestants were fairly mediocre squads on paper, but they had both proved their mettle against formidable opponents.   The 1993 Reds were very happy to return to the front of their rotation for Jose Rijo (14-9, 2.48), 5th in the Cy Young votes and the NL leader in WAR.  On the other hand, the 1984 Royals had begun round one with Mark Gubicza (10-14, 4.05), in an effort to preserve their top starters for tougher competition, a decision that might come back to haunt them here.  Rijo breezes through the Royals lineup the first time through without a baserunner, and the KC offense isn’t helped any when C Don Slaught gets injured in the 3rd.  In the bottom of the 4th, Roberto Kelly singles, steals second on replacement C John Wathan, and races home on a Reggie Sanders single to hand Rijo a lead.  Sanders then steals second himself, and Chris Sabo singles him home and the Reds are up 2-0 after four.  In the 5th, the Reds load the bases on a single and two walks, setting up Sanders for a 2-run single, although Gubicza is fortunate that things didn’t get any worse as he strands the bases loaded.  Meanwhile, Rijo goes through the Royals order a second time with no baserunners, but Darryl Motley finally breaks up the perfect game with a single off Rijo’s card in the 8th.  Wathan garners their second hit in the top of the 9th, and when Hal McRae walks that brings up George Brett with two away, but he flies out harmlessly and Rijo’s two-hit shutout propels the Reds to the super-regional final with a 4-0 win.  

Super-regional F finals

For the super-regional final, the 93-win 1991 Dodgers come in as big favorites over the sub-.500 1993 Reds, and the depth of the LA rotation heightened the advantage with Mike Morgan (14-10, 2.78) wielding a significantly better card than the Reds’ Tim Belcher (9-6, 4.47), although coincidentally a younger version of Belcher had just tossed a shutout for the Dodgers in the previous game.  However, it’s the plucky Reds who get on the board first, with Hal Morris converting a TR 1-4 split in the bottom of the 1st and then scoring on a Kevin Mitchell sac fly.  The Dodgers quickly tie the game on a 2-out double by Mike Sharperson in the top of the 2nd, although slow-footed Mike Scioscia is out by a mile at the plate trying to score a second run.  The Reds take the lead again in the 6th when Barry Larkin scores while Mitchell is hitting into a double play, and in the 7th Reggie Sanders converts that same TR 1-4 on Morgan (a 6-5 roll) for another run.  Sanders scores on a Joe Oliver sac fly to add some insurance, and Mitchell adds a tape measure solo shot in the 8th while Belcher baffles his old teammates and finishes up a 2-hitter, both by Sharperson, and the unlikely Reds post the 5-1 win to take the super-regional crown.

Interesting card of Super-Regional F:  Mostly remembered by me as a slugger for the Giants during the 80s, Kevin Mitchell spent a more forgettable second half of his career bouncing around to different teams and countries (including Japan and Mexico) with a reputation as a malcontent and clubhouse cancer.  Traded to the Reds after a lackluster 1992 in Seattle, Mitchell looked like he was recovering the form that made him the 1989 NL MVP until injuries ended his season in August.  Nonetheless, as evident from this card, when healthy he was still a force to be reckoned with, and he was the primary offense weapon on a sub-.500 team that managed to pull off the super-regional win.   Mitchell didn’t hit a home run in rounds one through six of the tournament until his last at-bat of the super-regional final, but he did drive in 7 runs in those games and he managed to get himself into position many times to be driven in by Reggie Sanders and Chris Sabo.  At last report Mitchell has turned around his life in many ways, mentoring kids in his native San Diego and living healthier after being diagnosed with diabetes after his playing days ended.  However, his career lives on in the endless single elimination tournament, as his Reds are one of the final 32 teams with a chance to win it all.




Tuesday, November 26, 2024

The Endless Single Elimination Tournament after Regional #256:   Having completed 256 regionals involving all 2,041 different teams that Strat has printed (as of this moment), I've now played every Strat team I own, although it's taken me 44 years to be able to say that.  In recognition of this dubious accomplishment, I have collated the "historical documents" of this project up to this point into a single PDF document, which enables any interested reader (a group almost certainly limited to a highly select few) to search for information about the fate of their favorite teams or players.   Since anyone reading this has to be somewhat of a numbers buff, here are some stats: the volume is 1,022 pages long and contains 694,016 words, dwarfing Leo Tolstoy’s War and Peace (561,304), Gone with the Wind (418,053), Charles Dickens' longest work, Bleak House (360,947 words), Dostoyevsky’s The Brothers Karamazov (364,153) and all seven volumes of C.S. Lewis’s The Chronicles of Narnia combined (345,535).  However, as always I must accept that my words-to-readers ratio is far higher than any of those authors, suggesting that perhaps I need to find other things to do.   At any rate, the Complete Regional edition is available for inspection or download at the link below; hope someone enjoys it!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TTmDk4gmcTRrB2fivwSCOTKRGbBbwARi/view?usp=sharing




The ELO ratings and regional winners:  Now that all 256 regionals in the endless single elimination tournament are under my belt, with 2,041 different teams participating, there is a decent sample to examine whether ELO ratings for the history of MLB can provide any indication of who will win a regional in this crazy single-elimination tournament.  And, the final answer seems to be:  kind of.  As shown in the chart, the modal ELO seeding for the regional winner is indeed the top seed, but that favorite only won 22.3% of the regionals, which is considerably better than the 12.5% we’d see if winners were entirely random but certainly not a sure thing.  If your team is in the top half of entries in the regional, you are more than twice as likely to win as if you’re in the bottom half, but for some reason #2 seeds didn't do all that well.  However, the squads that fare most poorly are the #7 seeded out of the eight teams–the worst ELO-rated team in these groups wins the regional more often than the second-worst, although neither would be a great bet.  The #4 seeds were strangely successful, which has nothing to do with pairings because in this tournament the team matchups were entirely random rather than being based upon seeding such as is done in, for example, the NCAA basketball tournament.  If the pairings had been based on seedings with #1 always playing #8 in the first round and so forth, things might have gone differently.  However, when I started this tournament in 1980, Arpad Elo had only published his book on his rating system (for chess players) two years previously, so his system wasn’t comprehensively applied to baseball until several years after my first tournament games were played!  A final note:  the source that I’ve relied upon for MLB ELO ratings was bought out by Disney, which resulted in mass layoffs and resignations, so I've had to rely upon other sources for the past few years of rankings, which might have used different calculations for the ratings.   Regardless, we can see that as the tournament heads to the super-regional rounds, there aren't a lot of really bad teams remaining alive (28 seventh or eighth seeds, compared to 57 top seeds), but there are still plenty of mediocre squads around to cause havoc!