REGIONAL #251:  This group was notable for a pair of very recent Dodgers teams that were likely to be very good; there was also an Orioles team from the most current Strat season that I remembered as being quite strong in the regular season, but like the Dodgers I remembered them as coming up short in the playoffs.   There was a recent Mets team that I thought might be pretty good on cardstock if less so in reality, and a Marlins team that would win a pennant two years later, but they were so up and down in those years I wasn’t putting any money on them.  The field was rounded out by a Phillies team from a vintage that has made a strong showing in this tournament, and so with the exception of the two abysmal play-in teams I would not be surprised by any of these teams winning the bracket, although being forced to predict I went with an all-Dodgers final, with 2021 (whom I remembered as having an extremely good ELO ranking) over 2023 in the faceoff.  Those ELO ranks portrayed this as a strong regional with four teams essentially in the top 350 of all time, and forecast the same results in the final as I.

First round action

The regional play-in game was another battle of the bad.  The 1999 Rays lost 93 games although they had some big names in the lineup such as Fred McGriff, Wade Boggs, and Jose Canseco, all of whom had decent years; however, the rotation was dreadful with Ryan Rupe (8-9, 4.55) getting the start.   At least the Rays had the excuse of being a second-year expansion team; the 2021 Diamondbacks lost 110 games and gave no indication that they would be heading to a World Series in two seasons.   Ketel Marte was the only guy in the lineup with an OPS over .800, and although Zac Gallen (4-10, 4.30) was their best starter, it was pretty much his worst season in the rotation thus far in his career.  The Rays strike first in the top of the 1st with a 2-out RBI single by Bubba Trammell, but Pavin Smith finds and converts Rupe’s HR split for a 3-run shot in the bottom of the inning and Arizona leads 3-1.  Trammell comes up again with two out in the 3rd and contributes another RBI single to make it a one run game, and Miguel Cairo leads off the 4th with a triple but Gallen bears down and strands him on 3rd.  Although Rupe has settled down, the Rays move to closer Roberto Hernandez in the 7th to try to keep them in the game, but Dalton Varsho swats an RBI double and Smith singles him home to extend the Dback lead nonetheless.  Randy Winn finds Gallen’s solid HR result in the top of the 8th to narrow the gap, but Kole Calhoun matches that in the bottom of the inning.  Gallen takes the Arizona lead into the top of the 9th, and although he allows a few baserunners, his 3B-5 Josh Vanmeter remarkably makes the play for the final out and the Diamondbacks head into the tournament proper with a 6-3 win.  

The 2023 Orioles won 101 games and the AL East, but had no success in the postseason, perhaps because although there was power up and down the lineup, they really didn’t do a very good job of getting on base.  However, Kyle Bradish (12-7, 2.83) finished 4th in the Cy Young votes and was good enough where a few solo shots should do the trick.  The 2020 Cardinals went 30-28 in that pandemic year, good enough to make the playoffs as a wild card but they were quickly eliminated, probably because Paul Goldschmidt was their only real offensive weapon, earning him 15th place in MVP voting.  Fortunately for them, Adam Wainwright (5-3, 3.15) was a solid option as the mandatory first round starter, but Adley Rutschman finds Wainwright’s HR result for one of those aforementioned solo shots in the bottom of the 1st.  However, Tyler O’Neill swats a 2-out, 2-run double in the top of the 4th and the Cards move in front, and RBI singles from Goldschmidt and Tommy Edman in the 5th make it a 4-1 Cardinal lead.  Back to back RBI doubles from Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander in the bottom of the inning make it a one run game, and when AA stealer Jorge Mateo walks and steals second to lead off the bottom of the 7th, the Cards summon Austin Gomber and his 1.86 ERA from the pen to try to preserve that lead.  But Rutschman greets him with a double that ties the game and leaves the O’s catcher a triple short of a cycle.  A leadoff walk by Bradish to begin the 8th and it’s Baltimore’s turn to head to the bullpen for closer Feliz Bautista who does his job with three quick outs; both relievers then silence the opposition and the game heads to extra innings.  In a controversial move, the O’s pull their closer hoping to preserve him for later rounds, and Daniel Coulombe is given the responsibility of getting them there.  He gets a scare when Brad Miller doubles past RF-3 Santander to lead off the 10th, but Coulombe bears down and strands Miller at third, and Gomber holds in his final inning of eligibility so things head to the 11th.  The Cards stage a two-out rally with a walk and a double that brings up Goldschmidt; although first base is open and the go-ahead run is on 3rd, the O’s opt to pitch to him, mainly because I hate the intentional walk, and Coulombe fans the Cards’ star to end the threat.  Neither offense can do anything, and Yennier Cano takes his turn on the hill for the O’s to begin the 14th while Giovanny Gallegos comes in for the Cards to begin the bottom of the 15th.  However, Gallegos is betrayed when LF-1 O’Neill commits an unthinkable 2-base error, and with two out Cedric Mullins laces a single to walk it off as the Orioles survive the 15-inning 5-4 win and advance.  

The 2021 Dodgers had one of the highest season-ending ELO ratings in baseball history, making them not only the favorite in this regional, but one of the favorites to capture the entire tournament.   The team won 106 games but fell short in the NLCS; they boasted a formidable lineup with Trea Turner and Max Muncy both in finishing in the top 10 for MVP, as well as an insanely good rotation, with three starters in the top 7 for the Cy Young including 3rd place Max Scherzer (1504, 2.46), supported by a killer bullpen.  However, their opponents, the 2022 Mets, were no slouches either, winning 101 games although exiting quickly from the postseason.  They had Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, and closer Edwin Diaz all receiving MVP votes, and who should be on the mound but another Max Scherzer (11-5, 2.29) having another fine year.  Justin Turner converts his HR 1-7/flyB split for a 3-run shot in the bottom of the 2nd, and things don’t stop there as Mookie Betts drives in one with a sac fly and a 2-out RBI double by Trea Turner makes it 5-0 Dodgers after two.  However, the LA Scherzer quickly gives up some ground in the 3rd, walking four Mets to score one before Marte swats a 2-run double and it’s now a 5-3 game.  When Chris Taylor leads off the bottom of the 6th with a homer to extend the LA lead, the Mets yank their Scherzer for Jacob deGrom, only eligible out of the pen due to limited innings, and he promptly strikes out the side but NY now trails by three.  But Dan Vogelbach leads off the 7th with a homer that narrows it to two, and a Mark Canha hit brings up PH Tyler Naquin as the tying run, so it’s the Dodgers’ turn to de-Scherzer for Jimmy Nelson and his 1.86 ERA.  He fans Naquin, and then Justin Turner knocks his second homer of the game that sends deGrom into a tailspin; he loads the bases for the other Turner, Trea, who swats a 2-run single and the Dodgers coast into the 9th with a five run pad.  Alex Vesia is brought in to mop up, and that doesn’t prove to be a good idea as he walks two and then Brandon Nimmo finds Vesia’s solid HR result and with one out, it’s suddenly a two run game.  But Vesia recovers, striking out Alonso for the final out of the game, and the Dodgers survive a scare and advance with the 9-7 win, with Scherzer getting both the win and the loss. 

The second modern Dodger team in the bracket, the 2023 Dodgers, were also a highly-rated team that won 100 games and the NL West, but they were less similar to their ‘21 counterparts than might be expected.  The big guns in the lineup for this version were MVP runner-up Mookie Betts and #3 MVP vote-getter Freddie Freeman; the rotation wasn’t as good as the other team’s but Clayton Kershaw (13-5, 2.46) was a top flight starter for round one.  Fortunately for these Dodgers, they weren’t playing their prior selves in the first round, instead drawing the #7 seeded 1998 Phillies, a 75-87 team that had HOFer Scott Rolen getting some MVP votes, and Strat expert Doug Glanville there to coach his teammates about what column to roll.  On the mound was Curt Schilling (15-14, 3.25), thinking that a first round victory over the Dodgers might bolster his HOF case.  He does have a no-hitter the first pass through the lineup, but he loads up the bases with nobody out in the 4th, and a DP ball scores one; after a walk, Jason Heyward proves he’s not just a singer in a rock and roll band by rolling the 6-5, and although he misses the HR split by one, both runners race home and the Dodgers lead 3-0.  When the Phllies get runners on 1st and 3rd in the 6th, LA gets nervous about Kershaw’s gopher ball results and bring in Shelby Miller and his 1.71 to try to preserve the lead; 3B-4 Max Muncy is able to make the play on a Mike Lieberthal grounder but a run scores to narrow the gap.  However, Will Smith slaps a homer to lead off the top of the 7th and after two strikeouts, a walk is followed by a 2-run Betts homer that chases Schilling for Jerry Spradlin, but the damage is done.  Caleb Ferguson comes in to mop up for the final two innings, and the Dodgers head to the semifinals with the 6-1 win.

The 2021 Diamondbacks had won their play-in game and now faced a team that, like themselves, would win a pennant in two seasons, the 76-86 2001 Marlins.  A strong year from Cliff Floyd earned him some MVP votes, but Brad Penny (10-10, 3.69) sat atop a lackluster rotation, while the Dbacks had to go deeper into their limited staff and hoped Madison Bumgarner (7-10, 4.67) could last long enough to turn it over to a rested bullpen.  A sac fly in the bottom of the third by Carson Kelly gives Arizona a 1-0 lead, while Bumgarner carries a shutout into the 6th, but when Floyd misses a HR split for a double to lead off the 6th, the Dbacks seek to cling to the slim lead and Noe Ramirez comes in from the pen.   He chalks up two whiffs and a groundout to end the inning, then strikes out the side in the 7th, but Penny is holding the Dbacks in check and it’s still a one-run game.  Floyd misses Ramirez’s HR 1-4/flyB split in the top of the 8th, and then in the bottom it’s Josh Rojas converting Penny’s HR 1-7 split for a two-run shot and Penny is pulled for Vladimir Nunez, but it looks to be too late.  The Dbacks then try to preserve some usage for Ramirez and put in JB Wendelken to try to mop up the 9th; he allows a couple of baserunners to bring the tying run to the plate, but he strikes out Alex Gonzales to seal the 3-0 win, with three pitchers sharing the 5-hit shutout, and the play-in Dbacks make the semifinals.  

The survivors

The top seeded 2001 Dodger may have one of the best ELO ratings in the entire tournament, but they also have one of the toughest paths through the regional, facing their second straight 100-win team in a row in the 2023 Orioles.  One of the reasons the Dodgers were so highly rated was their rotation, with a #2 starter in Walker Buehler (15-4, 2.47) who was 4th in the Cy Young voting, as opposed to the Orioles’ Grayson Rodriguez (7-4, 4.35) who had a depleted bullpen after their 15-inning round one win.  The Dodgers begin the bottom of the 1st by missing two HR splits, but the second one by Cory Seager ends being a two run double, and then Will Smith slaps a 2-run homer converting Rodriguez’s split to put Baltimore in a quick four-run hole.  Cedric Mullins cuts into the lead with a solo shot in the top of the 2nd, but in the 3rd Justin Turner finds the Rodriguez HR result for a 2-run blast, and the O’s are stuck with Rodriguez at least for a few more innings because of the bullpen situation.  He settles down, but when Trea Turner singles and steals second to lead off the 7th, the O’s summon closer Felix Bautista who shuts down the threat.  Mullins leads off the 9th with his second solo homer of the game, and Buehler is wondering if he should take the day off as he allows two more hits, but with the pen needing some rest, the Dodgers stick with him and he rewards them by closing out the 6-2 win for an appearance in the finals.  

The plucky 2021 Diamondbacks had survived a play-in game and a first round battle, but it seemed like reality might set in against the 100-win 2023 Dodgers and Bobby Miller (11-4, 3.76), with the Dbacks down to Caleb Smith (4-9, 4.83) in the rotation.  But Carson Kelly quickly puts Arizona in the lead with a solo homer in the bottom of the 1st, and in the 4th errors by Dodgers C-3 Will Smith and 2B-2 Amed Rosario set up a 2-run single from Josh Vanmeter and a sac fly by Nick Ahmed that makes it 4-0.  With their hopes fading, the Dodgers move to Ryan Brasier from the pen to begin the 6th, but he immediately loads the bases with three walks to set up a 2-run single by Kelly, and then another walk leads to a Pavin Smith sac fly and it’s 7-0 Arizona after six.  In the top of the 7th, a double by Rosario puts the Dodgers on the board, and James Outman lives up to his name with a DP ball but another run scores and an RBI single by Mookie Betts narrows the gap to 7-3.  The Diamondbacks are hoping that Caleb Smith can hang in for the entire game, but a 3-run homer from PH Chris Taylor off Smith’s card puts an end to that experiment, so Tyler Gilbert comes in, issues a walk, and Mookie Betts misses a DO 1-7/flyB that could have tied the game.  A double by Kelly in the bottom of the 8th leaves him a triple short of a cycle, but Ketel Marte singles him home and Arizona has a little breathing room for the 9th.  However, Freddie Freeman opens the top of the 9th with a homer and it’s a one-run game, but Gilbert survives the remainder of the inning and the unlikely Diamondbacks head to the finals by squeaking out the 8-7 win.  

It doesn’t get much more lopsided than this regional final, as one of the best rated teams in history, the 2021 Dodgers, face one of the worst, the 110-loss 2021 Diamondbacks who finished 54 games behind the Dodgers in the same division.  Making matters worse, the Dodger had 20 game winner Julio Urias (20-3, 2.96), 7th in the Cy Young votes, on the mound, while the Dbacks were down to Merrill Kelly (7-11, 4.44), who wouldn’t compete for the Matt Young award.  Still Arizona had won three straight with timely hitting and lucky splits, and like the Dodgers their pen was in pretty good shape, so underestimating them would be dangerous.  LA strikes in the top of the 1st when Trea Turner walks, steals second, and scores on a two out Max Muncy single, and after a walk Will Smith slaps another single and Muncy races home; Justin Turner follows with another RBI single and Kelly only gets out of the inning on an unexpectedly fine play by 3B-5 Josh Vanmeter.  A fielder’s choice in the bottom of the inning narrows the gap to 3-1 LA, but AJ Pollock crushes a 3-run homer in the 2nd to extend the Dodger lead and the Dbacks in desperation move to the pen for Noe Ramirez who ends the inning without further damage.  In the 4th, Pollock misses his HR split for a double, but Muncy does not miss his and it’s a 2-run homer that pushes the score to 8-1; two batters later, it’s Will Smith with another big slap for a long homer and it’s 10-1.  The Dbacks bullpen then holds their own against a raft of LA defensive replacements, but it doesn’t matter as Urias closes out a 4-hitter while striking out 10, and the Dodgers win 10-1 and live up to their lofty rating with a regional championship, the 12th for the franchise.

Interesting card of Regional #251:  As I get close to my goal of playing every team Strat has printed as an entry in this tournament, I felt that I should use one of the few remaining editions of this feature to recognize a long-term booster of the game.  Recruited into his brother’s league when he was 5 years old, Doug Glanville won the league the following season and the rest was history–a history that apparently included a 31-0 mauling of Diego Segui, and spilling grape juice on Ron Guidry’s card for a nasty purple stain.  In his Strat story that is posted on his webpage, he notes that the game laid the foundation for a successful nine-year career in the majors with a .277 lifetime batting average and 168 steals.  He also mentions the particular pride that he took when he received a “1” rating in CF, but he admits that he was bitter when didn’t get that same “1” rating for his centerfield play in 2001.  He further points out the importance of Strat in helping him develop critical thinking skills, and those skills were evident from his Ivy League degree in engineering from the University of Pennsylvania; I know that I and many others also see the influence of Strat in our eventual career paths.  In a 2013 interview conducted by the game company, he proved he was a man after my own heart when asked about his favorite Strat cards, as he replied “I just enjoyed the unusual cards, not so much the great ones.”  As such, it seems mandatory to me to present fellow Strat-o-matic fanatic Doug Glanville as the feature card of the regional.

REGIONAL #250:  Once again, it appeared that two of the best teams in the draw would be facing off in round one, with last season’s Yankees and Phillies being two teams that I vaguely remembered were thought to be potential Series opponents, although neither team took the pennant.  However, there was one squad that indeed did capture the pennant, the 2009 version of the Phillies, and they were right in the middle of an remarkable run of regional winners for the franchise that already included 2005, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2014.  Among other potential competitors were a Nationals team separated from their lone pennant by a pandemic year, the 2023 Twins who I seemed to remember playing in the postseason, and a strike-season Red Sox team some years before the infamous ‘85 pennant-winners.  Aside from the Marlins and the ‘59 Senators, I thought this looked like a strong group but I had to pick the 2009 Phils given their previous successes in this project, and for extra measure I selected the other Phillies team to face them in the Phinals.   The ELO rankings agreed with that assessment, but suggested that the older Phils would have a more challenging path to the final than the newer model.

First round action

In what looked like the best round one matchup in this group, it was the top seeded, pennant winning 2009 Phillies facing the #4 seed 1981 Red Sox.  The Phils took the NL East with 93 wins and cruised through the playoffs but fell short in the Series; they were loaded offensively with Ryan Howard finishing 3rd for MVP and Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth all also received votes.  However, their pitching staff was not the best, although JA Happ (12-4, 2.93) was a strong option at the top of the rotation, and Brad Lidge was one of worst closers I’d seen on a pennant-winning team.  The Red Sox went 59-49 in that strike-shortened season, with hitting leader Carney Lansford and Dwight Evans both in the top ten for MVP, but innings shortages left Mike Torrez 10-3, 3.69) atop a rather shallow rotation.  Boston suffers a blow in the top of the 3rd when Jerry Remy is knocked out of the regional in his second at-bat, and those 24-player die cut teams didn’t provide much depth to replace him.  The Phils don’t get their first hit until the bottom of the 4th, but it’s a long one as Raul Ibanez provides a lead with a solo shot, and Jimmy Rollins leads off the 5th by converting Torrez’s HR split for another run.  Torrez gets out of a jam, striking out Werth with the bases loaded to end the 7th with no damage, and the Phils leave two more on in the 8th, but their limited production proves sufficient as Happ finishes up with a 4-hit shutout and the favorites move on with a quiet 2-0 win.

I was surprised to discover that this first round game was a huge mismatch by the ELO ratings, mainly because I didn’t realize the 2021 Nationals had collapsed after winning a season two seasons earlier.  This version of the Nats managed to lose 97 games, and although Juan Soto was the MVP runner-up and Kyle Schwarber provided additional power, the rotation was painful to look at with Joe Ross (5-9, 4.17) just tossing enough innings to be eligible as their best option.  Meanwhile, I had accurately remembered that the 2023 Twins made the playoffs and won the AL Central with 87 wins; Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.79) was the runner-up for the Cy Young award and the fourth starter in their rotation still probably had a better card than Ross.  But Schwarber spots Ross with a leadoff homer in the top of the 2nd, and in the 7th the lead gets extended by RBI hits from Alcides Escobar and Starlin Castro.  When Soto leads off the 8th with a double, the Twins are forced to try Brock Stewart and his 0.65 ERA to try to head off further damage, but he yields a 2-out single to Escobar that scores another run.  Meanwhile, Ross is mystifying the Twins, and he ends with the second 4-hit shutout of the regional as the bottom seed in the bracket surprises and moves on with the 4-0 win.

This matchup features two franchises that haven’t seen a lot of success in the tournament.  The 2023 Marlins were the #6 seed but had a decent 84-78 record; Luis Arraez led the NL with a .354 average and finished 8th in the MVP voting, while Jesus Luzardo (10-10, 3.58) was a respectable round one starter.    For the #7 seed 1959 Senators, it was the usual first in war, first in peace, and last in the American League with 91 losses, but this team had Harmon Killebrew leading the league in homers and he, Jim Lemon, and Bob Allison all received MVP votes, as did Camilo Pascual (17-10, 2.64) with an outstanding year.   Washington comes out charging in the bottom of the 1st, with an RBI single by Roy Sievers, a sac fly by Faye Throneberry, and an error from Miami 3B-3 Jake Burger resulting in a 3-0 Nats lead.  They add to it in the 2nd with a 2-run double from Lemon, although Burger atones for his error by leading off the 4th with a long homer and Jorge Soler goes back to back to make it a 5-2 game.  Meanwhile, Luzardo settles down for a while, but when he puts the first two runners on in the 5th the Marlins move to Tanner Scott from the pen, and he gets out of the jam to keep Miami in the game.  Killebrew jacks one to lead off the7th but the Marlins get it back on a Jesus Sanchez RBI single in the 8th, although Jazz Chisholm misses his HR 1-15 split that could have made it even closer.  The Marlins mount a comeback in the top of the 9th, as Arraez drives in a run with his first hit of the game, and with two out and two runs in scoring position that could tie the game, Burger comes to the plate as the go-ahead run.  A mound chat with Pascual and the Senators stick with their ace, who strikes out Burger and Washington heads to the semifinals with the 6-4 win.  

Two teams from the past season that fell short of expectations, the 2023 Phillies were the #2 seed while the 2023 Yankees were seeded as #5.   The Phils won 90 games but fell just short of a pennant in the NLCS; there were MVP votes for Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber, who hit 47 homers but batted .197 and would occupy a well-deserved DH role because he was a hazard in the outfield.  Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61) was 6th in the Cy Young voting and was a force to be reckoned with.   The Yankees limped to an 82-80 record, and their primary weapon was Aaron Judge, who needed to stay healthy unlike the actual season.  However, their great equalizer was Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole (15-4, 2.63) who would give them a chance against anybody.  Things go sour in the bottom of the 2nd for Wheeler, as two walks and errors from LF-2 Brandon Marsh and two errors in the inning by SS-3 Trea Turner help the Yanks bat around, garnering six unearned runs in the process, and the Bronx cheers are deafening.  The Phils try to get back into it in the 3rd but 1-11+2 Alec Bohm is cut down at the plate for the third out, leading to a lot of second-guessing by Philly sports radio, especially when Castellanos leads off the 4th with a homer.  Two straight hits by the Yanks to lead off the bottom of the 4th and Wheeler is pulled for Jose Alvarado and his 1.74 ERA, and he staves off further damage but the Phils are swinging and missing against Cole.  Finally, some running aggressiveness pays off in the 7th as Turner walks, steals second, and races home on a JT Realmuto single, but that’s all Cole is giving up as he finishes out a 5-hitter while fanning 13 and the Yankees pull off the upset with the 6-2 win.  

The survivors

This semifinal appeared to be quite lopsided with the top seeded 2009 Phillies against the bottom seed 2021 Nationals, but the Nats had already pulled off one big upset and were aiming for a second, although their Paolo Espino (5-5, 4.27) looked to be at a disadvantage against Philly’s Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22).   However, things start out rough for the Phils in the top of the 1st as they miss two DO 1-13 splits for singles, miss a HR 1-10 split for a double, and then miss a 1-13 split trying to score on that double–and come away with zero runs on three potential extra base hits.  In the bottom of the 3rd Kyle Schwarber hits his second solo homer of the regional to give the Nats the lead, while in the 4th the Phils lose their RF as Jayson Werth gets injured while hitting into a double play.  In the 6th Ryan Howard misses a HR split, but advances to 3rd with one out on an error by Espino, so the Nats seek to hold their slim edge and summon Andres Machado out of a none-too-good bullpen.  Machado fans injury replacement John Mayberry Jr. and Ben Francisco and the Phillies again come up empty-handed.  However, in the 7th they load the bases with nobody out, and with the infield in Machado strikes out Shane Victorino and it’s deja vu all over again.  However, Machado misses to Chase Utley and walks in the tying run, but he gets out of the inning without further damage, and when Victor Robles finds and converts Lee’s HR 1-6 split Washington moves back on top.  The Phils again get two runners in scoring position in the 8th but fail to score, and when Lee allows two hits in the bottom of the inning they move to Scott Eyre and he gets out of the jam to keep it a one-run deficit as the Phils take their last cuts in the 9th.  It’s the top of the order for Machado, and Victorino pops out, but Utley crushes one and the game is tied and heads to the bottom of the 9th, where Eyre dispatches the Nats and we head to extra innings.  With Machado burnt, Washington turns to Kyle Finnegan.  Both relievers do their job until the top of the 12th, when a double by Mayberry puts two runners in scoring position with nobody out, and the Nats do their familiar infield in positioning.  A groundball B gets one out at the plate, but a walk loads the bases for Jimmy Rollins–who fans and leaves the game with an injury.  An out by Pedro Feliz and once again the Phils come up empty.  In the bottom of the inning Eyre has to leave after four hitless innings, and Clay Condrey comes in to immediately yield a triple to Josh Harrison, putting the winning run 90 feet away and Juan Soto at the plate.   But Condrey whiffs Soto and the game heads to the 13th, where Raul Ibanez makes a statement with a 3-run homer in the top of the inning, after which the Phils load the bases but then fail to score.  Even so, Condrey has all the runs he needs as he holds on to send the Phillies to the finals with the 5-2 win, and although Rollins will be back for game, Werth is still out and the bullpen is in rough shape.  

After starting a Cy Young winner in the first round, the #5 seeded 2023 Yankees were now looking at a very shallow rotation, and decided that they had to use spot starter Michael King (4-8, 2.75) as their best chance of reaching the finals.   For the #7 seed 1959 Senators it would be Pedro Ramos (13-19, 4.15) trying to keep the ball in the newfangled Yankee Stadium, but it’s the Senators who knock the first homer as Roy Sievers crushes a 3-run shot, with Faye Throneberry then going back-to-back in the top of the 1st to silence the Bronx.  Then, in the 4th the Nats load the bases on two singles and a walk, and then Lenny Green draws a walk for one run, and Jim Lemon rolls King’s HR 1-9/flyB split–he misses the grand slam, but gets an RBI on the sac fly.   That brings up Killebrew, and he leaves no room for splits, crushing a solid 3-run homer that makes it 9-0 Washington and the crowd begins heading for the exits.  King joins them, with Wandy Peralta coming in to get the third out.  Anthony Volpe leads off the bottom of the 5th with a homer to try to begin the long climb back into the game; Anthony Rizzo then converts a TR 1, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, although not an Anthony, then singles in another run.  A few batters later, Giancarlo Stanton belts a three-run homer and suddenly it’s 9-5 and Ramos’s leash gets a lot shorter.  The Yanks’ comeback hopes take a hit when 3B DJ LeMahieu is lost for the tournament to injury leading off the 6th, but the next batter Volpe avenges his fallen colleague with his second homer of the game; Jimmy Cordero then takes over on the mound for New York to begin the 7th as they inch closer.  Throneberry greets Cordero with his second homer of the game and Washington takes a 10-6 lead into the 7th inning stretch.  But two straight walks to lead off the bottom of the inning and the Senators summon Chuck Stobbs to face Judge; Stobbs induces a DP ball from Judge and whiffs Stanton in a clutch situation.  And Washington’s offense isn’t done yet; Bob Allison knocks a two-out, two-run double in the top of the 8th and he scores on a Sievers single, and so the Nats preserve Stobbs and bring in Hal Griggs to try to close things out.  He tosses two hitless innings and the upstart Senators give a hint of things to come in Minnesota during the 60s, pounding the Yankees 13-6 to reach the bracket final.  

A lopsided matchup in the bracket final pits the top-seeded, pennant winning 2009 Phillies against the #7 seeded, 91-loss 1959 Senators, with the Phils Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32 ) facing Washington swingman Tex Clevenger (8-5, 3.92).  This was also the Zoom game of the week, with TT taking the reins of his Phils while I would attempt to continue the good fortune that I’d seemed to bring to the Senators in the first two rounds.  However, that quickly turned to misfortune as the Senators would lose their primary weapon, big Harmon Killebrew, to a tournament-ending injury in the bottom of the 1st inning.  The team rallied around this big loss, with Lenny Green finding and converting Hamels’ inviting 6-5 HR split in the 3rd, and Hal Naragon drove in another in the 4th while Clevenger was tossing no-hit ball.  However, Washington’s terrible defense, with its all-”4” infield, quickly loses that lead, with an error by SS-4 Ron Samford and an X-chart double from Pedro Feliz tying the game in the 5th.  That is the only hit Clevenger allows until the 8th, but then Clevenger commits the 3rd Nats error of the game, Shane Victorino knocks an RBI single, and with first base open I refuse to walk Ryan Howard, who promptly drives in another run and the Phillies move in front.  Skeptical of that 6-5 on Hamels, TT motions for Ryan Madson from the pen (leaving the terrible Brad Lidge warming up), and that proves to be enough to cement the 4-2 win and adding another regional crown to the Phillies collection from that era; in a decade long span, seven versions of the Phils have won regionals:  2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2014, the most impressive run of any franchise in this tournament, although they’ve had limited success outside of that run. 

Interesting card of Regional #250:   The ‘59 Senators were unlikely candidates to reach the regional finals, but they did so thanks in large part to the efforts of a 23-year old in his first full time season in the majors; all he did was lead the AL in homers and received noteworthy support for MVP on a bottom-dwelling team.  Killebrew signed as a 17 year old out of Idaho, on the recommendation of an Idaho senator who was a regular at the Senators’ games, and he began spot appearances in the majors at age 18, but the team didn’t seem to know what to do with him.   For example, his debut appearance was as a pinch-runner, a concept not reflected in his Strat running rating, and the Senators were committed to Eddie Yost at third base, so he spent most of 1954 to 1958 in the minors.  When Yost was traded after the 1958 season, Killer got his chance and he certainly made the most of it.  Shortly thereafter he and the team moved to Minnesota where both met with greater success, and he crossed the 500 homer threshold in 1971–but you have to wonder what his totals might have been if he’d been a Senators regular the five seasons that he spent primarily in the minors.  In this tournament, as Killebrew went, so went the team, as he led them to the finals with his combination of power and on-base ability, but his injury in his first at bat of the final spelled doom for the Senators unlikely run.   

REGIONAL #249:  After a careful cross-checking of tournament entries, I had discovered that I’d overlooked a few earlier teams that were pretty good, and one of them, the 1955 Giants, looked like a contender to capture this regional, as they had put together a season for the ages in the preceding season.  Still, I thought that they would face a serious obstacle in the first round in the 2022 Yankees, and other teams that I thought might be in the hunt were the 1986 Pirates and teams from the past two seasons representing the Indians, Red Sox, and a modern Giants squad.  I was pretty confident that the winner of the first “play-in” game of the tournament wouldn’t get very far; ultimately, I went with those ‘55 Giants to win, besting the ‘86 Pirates in the finals.  The ELO ratings indicated that the 2022 Yankees were by far the best team in the bracket, although they would face the #2 seeded ‘55 Giants in round one, and those ratings predicted that the Yanks would defeat the other Giants team in the finals, with most other teams in the group looking to be pretty bad.

First round action

Play-in game:  In the single elimination format, I often run across matchups where I hate that one team has to lose and be eliminated; however, in these play-in games needed to round out the tournament evenly, it’s hard to believe that one of these teams actually has to win.  This one matches two terrible teams from last season, the 2023 A’s and the 2023 Rockies, and the best that can be said is that at least the game won’t be played in Oakland, meaning that there might be more than 10 spectators in attendance.  The A’s lost 112 games and their best starter, JP Sears (5-14, 4.54), must have come from the clearance section of the catalog;  the Rockies lost 103 games and although their lineup looked quite a bit better than the A’s, led by Rookie of the Year vote-getter Nolan Jones, their pitching staff was even worse and Kyle Freeland (6-14, 5.03) topped one of the worst rotations I’ve run across in recent memory.  The fireworks begin in the top of the 1st when Zack Gelof converts Freeman’s HR split, and that is followed by a Brent Rooker triple and a Shea Langeliers single, all off Freeland’s card and the A’s quickly lead 2-0.  That doesn’t last long as Ryan McMahon hits Sears’ solid HR result for a 2-run shot and a tie game, and both squads are counting the outs until they can try out their bullpens.  A 2-run single by Ryan Noda, at least off his own card, puts the A’s back on top in the 2nd, but Brenton Doyle finds the solid HR department at Sears for a 2-run blast and again it’s tied.  Somehow both pitchers each manage two scoreless innings, but in the bottom of the 5th Jones converts Sears’ HR split to lead off the inning and having allowed the requisite five runs, the A’s move immediately to reliever Mason Miller, who ends the inning without further damage but the Rockies lead 5-4 after five.  Armed with a lead, the Rockies pull the terrible Freeland to begin the 6th and hope Brent Suter can hang on; he does, so in the 8th Colorado moves to the closest thing they can find to a closer, Justin Lawrence,   Lawrence does a solid job with a perfect 9th inning to lock down the save in the Rockies’ 5-4 that earns them a seat at the table in the regional proper–but they probably shouldn’t get too comfortable.

This first-round matchup featured two contemporary mediocrities that weren’t bad enough to require a play-in game, but probably not good enough to go very far in this project.  The 2022 Red Sox went 78-84 but did have MVP support for SS Xander Bogaerts and 3B Rafael Devers, and Michael Wacha (11-2, 3.32) had a good card if you could ignore some gopher ball issues.  The 2023 Indians were called the Guardians by this time, although doing so here would mess up my search functions and besides, it only says “Cleveland” on the cards so I can call them the Spiders or the Naps if I want to.  However, I can’t call them very good, as they went 76-86 without much offense besides Jose Ramirez, 10th in the MVP voting, and Josh Naylor, who received one such vote.  Even so, Tanner Bibee (10-4, 2.96) was a strong option at the top of the rotation so there was some chance of a tight pitcher’s duel here.  Disaster strikes Cleveland as Naylor is lost for the regional to injury in the bottom of the 3rd inning, weakening an already limited offense, The Red Sox load the bases in the top of the 5th but injury replacement 1B-3 David Fry turns a DP that the 2 that he replaced would have dropped and the game remains a scoreless tie after five.  Boston again loads the bases in the 7th, but Bibee records a clutch strikeout and then Wacha holds and the game enters the 8th with no score.  The injury bug hits the Red Sox in the 8th as RF Rob Refsnyder is knocked out of the game at an already thin position thanks to a midseason trade, but that seems to wake up their offense as Devers and JD Martinez then hit back to back 2-out doubles for a 1-0 lead.  Despite Wacha’s longball issues, he’s tossing a shutout and the Red Sox opt to stick with their ace, but he runs into some trouble in the 9th as PH Josh Bell singles and then defensive replacement 1B-3 Triston Casas drops a grounder for the 4th Boston error of the game.  But Cleveland is out of credible pinch hitters by now, and Wacha retires weak hitting Miles Straw for the final out and the Red Sox move on with the 1-0 win with the 4-hit shutout.  

My vague memory of the Pirates of the 1980s was that they were pretty good, but the 1986 Pirates proved that my memory is going as they lost 98 games with a talented pair of youngsters named Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla having unimpressive years, although Rick Rhoden (15-12, 2.84) was a good first round starter that finished 5th in the Cy Young votes.  The 2022 Giants went an even 81-81 but were the #3 seed by ELO ratings in this bracket, but they seemed to have a lot in common with the Pirates with limited offense but a strong top starter in Carlos Rodon (14-8, 2.88), the 6th place Cy Young finisher.  Things start slow, but a dropped popup by SF C- 3 Joey Bart opens the door for a 2-run single by Pirates DH Mike Diaz, but a chance for a rally in the bottom of the inning is cut short as 1-12+2 Joc Pederson is cut down at the plate for the third out.  Bart does lead off the bottom of the 5th with a solo homer that might keep SF from taking his name off the transit system, but from there on out Rhoden is untouchable, finishing out a 5-hitter as the Pirates take the 2-1 pitcher’s duel to advance to the semifinals.

It seems to happen with annoying regularity that the two best teams in the regional have to play each other in the first round, and so it goes in this bracket with the 2022 Yankees facing cross-town and cross-era rivals 1955 Giants for what should be a clear path to the regional crown.  The Yanks were the top seed with a very strong ELO ranking, winning 99 games and the AL East only to get swept in the ALCS; they famously had MVP Aaron Judge break the AL home run record, and Nestor Cortes (12-4, 2.44) finished 8th for the Cy Young.  The Giants dropped off quite a bit a year after their legendary 1954 team, going 80-74, with Willie Mays leading the NL in homers while finishing 4th for MVP, while Johnny Antonelli (14-16, 3.33) would have benefited from having more weapons like Mays in the lineup.  In the top of the 3rd, Yankees DH deluxe Matt Carpenter crushes one deep into the Polo Grounds for a 3-run homer, although Willie Mays lofts a sac fly in the bottom of the inning to narrow the gap to 3-1 Yanks after three.  The worst nightmares of the Yanks come to life when Judge is injured in the top of the 7th, although he could return for the regional final should the team last that long.  The Giants immediately set out to keep that from happening, as a single and an Al Dark double begin the bottom of the inning to put the tying run in scoring position with nobody out; after a visit to the mound, the Yanks decide to stick with Cortes, but Don Mueller lofts a fly to make it a one-run game.  However, with two out in the top of the 8th Josh Donaldson smacks a 2-run homer off Antonelli’s split, and the Giants summon Windy McCall sensing that the horse has left the barn.  MCall does his best to burn the barn down, allowing three straight hits, the last an RBI single from Andrew Benintendi but 1-15+2 Isiah Kiner-Falefa is cut down for the third out.  The assault on McCall continues in the 9th as defensive replacement DJ LeMahieu singles in a run, and Cortes sets down the Giants in order to close out the 7-2 win, earning a trip to the semifinals but without their MVP.

The 2023 Rockies survived their play-in game, but their remaining starters were terrible, with Austin Gomber (9-9, 5.50) the best option, and they had already put some wear on the few decent arms in their bullpen.  The good news was that the opposition, the 2023 Cardinals, were also pretty bad, losing 91 games with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolen Arenado coming back to earth after a big season the previous year; still, Jordan Montgomery (6-9, 3.42) was more than two runs better than Gomber in the ERA department.  Tommy Edman breaks the ice in the top of the 3rd by finding Gomber’s solid 5-9 homer for a two-run blast, and later in the inning a two-out error by 3b-1 Ryan McMahon opens the door for a 2-run shot by Nolan Gorman for a 4-0 Cardinal lead.  In the 6th, it’s Goldschmidt’s turn to roll the 5-9 for a 2-run homer and Gomber is a goner, with Brent Suter coming in to yield three straight singles and another run before he can get the third out.  The Rockies blow a chance to get on the board in the 8th when  1-12+2 Brendan Rodgers is nailed for the third out at the plate, but backup 1B Mike Moustakas connects for a 2-run homer in the 9th to provide a flicker of hope, but Montgomery quickly extinguishes it and the Cardinals move on with an easy 7-2 win.

The survivors

The top seeded 2022 Yankees will have Luis Severino (7-3, 3.18) uninjured and ready to go for their semifinal game, but not their MVP Aaron Judge who was still recovering from a first round injury.  They faced their contemporary rivals, the 2022 Red Sox, who finished 21 games behind the Yankees and also had a key offensive weapon, DH Rob Refsnyder, out with an injury, while Rich Hill (8-7, 4.27) was on the hill.  Severino is bailed out in the top of the 2nd when his RF-4 Giancarlo Stanton makes a spectacular catch with the bases loaded to crush a rally, but Severino’s luck runs out in the 4th when Alex Verdugo knocks a 2-run double off the pitcher’s card for a Red Sox lead.  In the 5th, it’s Trevor Story’s turn for a 2-run double for Boston, and that’s followed by Verdugo converting Severino’s HR 1-2/flyB split for a two run shot, so the Yankees summon Ron Marinaccio from the pen to get the final out but it’s now 6-0 Boston.  In the bottom of the inning, a two out two run homer by Andrew Benintendi narrows the gap somewhat, but in the 7th two RBIB singles by Eric Hosmer and Reese McGuire and a sac fly by Enrique Hernandez and the rout is on.  From there, it’s all down Hill and the Red Sox lay a whipping on their favored rivals with a 9-2 win to earn a trip to the regional finals.

The ELO ratings had this semifinal as a very even matchup between two pretty bad teams:  the 1986 Pirates and Bob Walk (7-8, 3.75) against the 2023 Cardinals with Steven Matz (4-7, 3.86).  Nolan Arenado finds and converts Walk’s HR split for a solo shot in the bottom of the 1st and then Tyler O’Neill goes back to back courtesy of his own homer result and it’s 2-0 Cards.  They get another run in the 3rd on a Willson Contreras fielder’s choice,  The Pirates get  on the board in the 6th with an RBI single from Barry Bonds, but the Cards start the bottom of the inning with a walk and a sharp single and Walk walks to the dugout and Don Robinson comes in to walk the bases loaded.  However, he then gets a clutch strikeout and a DP to escape the inning and the Pirates hang on, but the Cards pound Robinson in the 7th with an RBI single from Tommy Edman and a 2-run double from Arenado makes the lead look insurmountable, with Matz in control, and the Cards starter makes a nice defensive play on a grounder from PH Junior Ortiz to close out the 6-1 Cardinal win that sends them to the finals. 

A very modern final matches the #4 seeded 2022 Red Sox against the #7 seed, the 2023 Cardinals, with neither team really expected to get this far.  It was good news for the Red Sox as they would be getting their RF, Rob Refsnyder and his .881 OPS, back from injury and they had a fully rested pen ready to go in support of gopherball-prone Nathan Eovaldi (6-3, 3.87).  Even so, the Cards were also at full strength, although Miles Mikolas (9-13, 4.78) looked rather hittable himself.  The Red Sox move ahead in the top of the 4th when Trevor Story finds and converts Mikolas’s HR split, and when Story doubles in the 6th the Cards decide to go to the pen for Ryan Helsley, but Alex Verdugo singles and Boston move ahead 2-0.  In the bottom of the 7th St. Louis starts a two-out rally with two consecutive singles, and even though Eovaldi is tossing a shutout the Red Sox don’t trust the multiple homer results on his card, so John Schreiber comes in and records the third out.  However, in the bottom of the 8th Jordan Walker leads off by wrapping one around the foul pole to make it a one-run game; that’s followed by a single and a double that sets up a 2-run single by Nolan Arenado and suddenly the Cards are in front.  The Cards stick with Helsley to finish things out even though it will burn him for much of any super-regional that might be played, but they need to get there first and he does the job, sending the lightly-regarded Cards to the regional crown and earning the 3-2 comeback win.  It’s the 15th regional win for the franchise, who earned this one largely due to a pitching staff that held opponents to a total of five runs across the three games of the bracket. 

Interesting card of Regional #249:  When your teammate sets a single season league record for homers, you might think it would be difficult to lead the team in slugging percentage, but Matt Carpenter wasn’t holding anybody’s beer.   He spent only one season with the Yankees at age 36, but he made the most of it, posting a HR% of 9.7% that was substantially better than Aaron Judge’s record setting production at 8.9%.  That prorates out to a 68-homer season when based upon the number of plate appearances that Judge had.  Carpenter was a late bloomer with the Cardinals, not really seeing significant playing time until he was a 26-year old rookie, but he quickly demonstrated that he was a valuable and versatile infielder, leading the NL in doubles twice and also good at getting on base, leading the league in walks as well.  When he turned 30, he began to demonstrate formidable power, with 36 homers in 2018 getting him significant MVP support.  However, with two consecutive seasons below the Mendoza line in 2020 and 2021, the Cards let him go, but early in the 2022 season an injury-racked Yankee team signed him out of the minors.  That proved to be a wise move, as he immediately went 8 for 24, with six of his first seven hits being home runs.  The power surge continued, but as evident from his 2-9 roll, he couldn’t escape the injury plague in the Bronx; on August 8th, he fouled a ball off his foot and it was broken, and he did not return during the regular season.  Now age 38, he has returned to the Cards and although not the player he once was, it looks like he may bow out from the franchise more gracefully than he was able to following the pandemic. 

REGIONAL #248:  This bracket featured a very contemporary batch of teams as we get down to the final 50 or so entrants into the tournament.  The team that most captured my attention was 2023’s Astros team that had won two pennants in the preceding seasons and fell just short in the playoffs of winning another; however, their draw in the first round was the pandemic Yankees who I guessed could be a formidable obstacle.  Of the others, I took note of a Rockies team that had won its only pennant two seasons prior, and I seemed to remember last year’s Brewers making the postseason, but once again it would be those two squads facing off in round one, so I had the feeling that those two first round games would determine the matchup in the finals.   My guess was that the Astros would get past the Yanks and that the Rockies pitching would let them down against Milwaukee, and presuming that those two would survive the semifinals I picked Houston to go all the way, something that neither their 2021 nor 2022 pennant-winners could do.  The ELO rankings suggested that I overlooked a good 2009 Dodger team that was predicted to make the final, but like me those ratings had the Astros and the Yankees as the two best and predicted an Astros regional win.

First round action

The two worst teams in the regional, according to the ELO rankings, are matched in the first round as the 2023 Cubs meet the 2004 Reds.   The Cubs were a decent team, going 83-79, with Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson getting some MVP votes, the latter as part of an excellent all-”1” DP combo, and Justin Steele (16-5, 3.06) was 5th in the Cy Young ballots.  Meanwhile, the Reds were the bottom seed in the bracket with a 76-86 record, and although they had some offense with Adam Dunn’s 46 homers earning him a few MVP votes, their rotation was dismal with Paul Wilson (11-6, 4.36) the best of the bunch.  Ian Happ quickly located Wilson’s solid HR result for a solo shot in the top of the 1st, and a 2-base error by Reds 2B-3 D’Angelo Jimenez scores another to push the Cubs lead to 2-0.  Wilson settles in and pitched well, but when he yields a double to Cody Bellinger in the 8th he’s pulled in favor of Luke Hudson, who strands Bellinger at second to keep the game within reach.  But reach is all the Reds can do against Steele, who ends up with a 4-hit shutout while striking out 10 and the Cubs move on with a 2-0 win, collecting only five hits themselves.

While the previous first round game matched the two worst teams in the regional, this one featured the two top seeds in the 2023 Astros and the 2020 Yankees.   The Astros won 90 games to tie for 1st in the AL West, although they were eliminated in the ALCS by the team they tied with to be denied a pennant.  Kyle Tucker finished 5th for the MVP and Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman also received votes, while mid-season pickup Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22) would have merited Cy Young attention but split his record between the two leagues.  But equally imposing were the 33-27 pandemic Yankees, eliminated in the ALDS but having the league's highest batting average in DJ Lemahieu and the top HR hitter in Luke Voit, finishing 3rd and 9th respectively in the MVP voting.  Furthermore, their top IP mandated starter was Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.94) was 4th for the Cy Young, so this was a matchup of two potent offenses and two excellent pitchers.  The Yankees start the top of the 1st with a walk and a 2-run homer from Clint Frazier, , and they follow with three straight hits including an RBI double from Aaron Judge and before Verlander can settle down, his team trails 4-0.  Alex Bregman gets the Astros first hit of the game in the bottom of the 2nd, a solo homer that narrows the gap a bit, but Judge responds with a solo shot of his own in the 3rd and Verlander is warned that he’s on a short leash and it’s not Kate Upton at the other end.  However, an error by 2B-3 Jose Altuve is followed by a Gleyber Torres homer off Verlander’s split, and Hector Neris replaces Verlander end the inning but the score is now New York 7, Houston 1.  Altuve gets his run back in the bottom of the inning with a solo homer, but Alvarez misses Cole’s HR 1-9/flyB split that could have made things more interesting.  When the Yanks get a single and a walk in the 7th, the Astros try Bryan Abreu from the pen but Brett Gardner greets him with an RBI single and the Yanks extend their lead.  Cole proceeds smoothly until with two out in the bottom of the 9th, Yanier Diaz pokes a bases empty homer but that’s it for the Astros as the Yankees knock out the top seed and advance with a dominating 8-3 win.

The 2023 Brewers won 92 games and the NL Central, seemingly on the basis of a strong pitching staff fronted by Corbin Burnes (10-8, 3.39), who finished 8th for the Cy Young, and aided by a deep bullpen; however, their lineup didn’t boast many guys who were any good at getting on base.  The 2009 Rockies also won 92 games and also were quickly eliminated in the postseason, but they were built very differently, with lots of altitude fueled offense but a rotation that got bad quickly after Ubaldo Jimenez (15-12, 3.47) and a bullpen that looked like it had had too much Coors.  In the bottom of the 1st, Carlos Santana is back to his evil ways with a 2-out, 2-run double, but the Rockies utilize a Carlos of their own, Gonzalez, whose 2-out 2-run triple in the top of the 3rd ties the game.  Todd Helton then leads off the 4th with a home run to put Colorado ahead, but an error from SS-1 Tulowitzki and two walks load the bases with nobody out, and although 2B-2 Clint Barmes turns a DP a run scores and it’s knotted at three apiece after four.  The Brewers move ahead in the 5th courtesy of a 2-out 2-run moon shot by Tyrone Taylor, but when Gonzalez leads off the 8th by converting Burnes’ HR split, the Brewers summon closer Devin Williams and his 1.53 ERA to try to hang onto the one run lead.  A Willy Adames base hit in the bottom of the inning and the Rockies summon Rafael Betancourt to try to keep things close, and he prevents any damage so the game moves to the 9th with Williams needing three outs to close out the game for the Brewers.  He strikes out two in a row, but Dexter Fowler converts a SI* 1-11 to bring up Tulo as the go-ahead run; however, he lofts a lazy fly and the Brewers hang on and advance with the 5-4 win.  

The last game of the first round featured another two competitive squads to round out a strong regional.  The 2009 Dodgers won 95 games and the NL West, but were denied a pennant in the NLCS; Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp were both in top 10 MVP votegetters, and 21 year old Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79) was seeking to follow-up on his interesting card of the regional feature from the prior bracket.  The 2021 Cardinals won 90 games but exited the playoffs quickly as a wild card team, but they also had two top ten MVP candidates in Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill, and Adam Wainwright (17-7, 3.05) received some Cy Young votes although the rotation was not very deep behind him.  Yadier Molina records the first hit of the game for the Cards in the top of the 3rd, converting his HR 1-6/flyB for a St. Louis lead, while in the bottom of the inning Juan Pierre misses Wainright’s HR split and gets stranded at second so the Cards lead 1-0 after three. However, Manny Ramirez is being Manny to lead off the bottom of the 4th with a tape measure homer to tie things up, and in the 5th LA loads the bases for a 2-out 2-run single by Matt Kemp and a 3-1 Dodger lead.  The Cards manufacture a run in the 8th when Tommy Edman singles with two out, swipes second on C-1 Russell Martin, and scores on a Goldschmidt single, but when Casey Blake singles to lead off the bottom of the inning, the Cards bring in reliever Luis Garcia to try to keep it a one-run game.  Garcia loads the bases but it proves to be a good move when Pierre rolls the 5-5 that had been a homer on Wainright but is a whiff on Garcia, so the game moves to the top of the 9th with Kershaw trying to hold the one run lead.   And he does, finishing a 6-hitter as the Dodgers survive and advance with the 3-2 win.  

The survivors

The Zoom game of the week involved this semifinal game, with TT being intrigued by a 2020 Yankees pandemic team that had all sorts of offensive goodies, but given the innings limitations they had no choice in starting pitchers with JA Happ (2-2, 3.47) as their second man up in IP.  The 2023 Cubs weren’t Happless themselves, with Ian Happ in the lineup, and ColavitoFan liked the all “1” DP combo and pitching options that included Kyle Hendricks (6-8, 3.74).  Out of the gate, the game had the feel of a pitching duel, and aside from a couple of hits in the 2nd inning, there were no other hits in a scoreless tie after five innings.  Scrapping for runs, ColavitoFan even tries a steal of home with AA stealer Nico Hoerner but he trips long before he reaches the plate and is out by a mile.  However, a bit of offensive begins to emerge for the Yankees in the bottom of the 6th, as Hendricks encounters a rough patch and allows two runners on with nobody out.  CF comes out to the mound to confer with his starter and opts to leave him in against the imposing Luke Voit, given that the pitcher’s been masterful to this point.  Sure enough, Hendricks retires Voit harmlessly and CF breathes a sigh of relief that lasts until the next batter, as Aaron Judge crushes one for a three run homer and the piped-in crowd noise goes wild.  That puts the game in Happ’s hands, and he doesn’t allow another hit the rest of the way as he closes out a 3-hit shutout to propel the Yanks to the regional final.  

The #3 seeded 2009 Dodgers and the #4 seeded 2023 Brewers face off to determine who earned a trip to the regional final, and both squad could fielder solid starters, with Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.23) going for the Dodgers and Wade Miley (9-4, 3.14) on the mound for the Brewers.  Both pitchers sported the infamous 6-5 home run split, and Wolf’s is discovered first in the top of the 1st by William Contreras for a solo shot and a quick Milwaukee lead.  Matt Kemp rips an RBI single in the 2nd that ties the game, and from there both pitchers settle in so the scores remains 1-1 after five.  With two out in the 6th a Contreras single convince the Dodgers to utilize their strong pen, and so George Sherrill and his 1.70 ERA come in and quelch any possible rally.  In the bottom of the inning the Dodgers get a leadoff single, but the Brewers pen had seen some work in round one and they decided to stick with Miley, a decision that Manny Ramirez makes them regret with a long 2-run homer which convinces Milwaukee to use Devin Williams from the pen for the second straight game.  However, he’s not as sharp as he was in the first round, and two walks and an error by 3B-2 Brian Anderson set up a 2-run double by James Loney and the Dodgers lead 5-1.  The Dodgers preserve Sherrill and summon Hong-Chih Kuo to begin the 8th, and he does the job, although LA is hit with a blow in the bottom of the inning when SS Rafael Furcal goes out for the regional with an injury.   Still, Kuo holds in the 9th and the Dodgers head to the finals with the 5-1 win, but looking at a downgrade in their strong infield defense.  

The regional final is a renewal of an old rivalry, with the #2 seed 2020 Yankees against the #3 seed 2009 Dodgers for the bracket crown.  The Yanks were fortunate in that Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.56) was decent as the third highest IP starter on the staff, while Hiroki Kuroda (8-7, 3.76) had similar qualifications as the best option for LA.  Luke Voit misses his HR 1-15/flyB split in the 3rd and the game stays in a scoreless tie until Gleyber Torres knocks an RBI single in the 4th to put NY up 1-0.  It becomes 3-0 in the 5th when Aaron Judge rips a 2-out triple to drive in one, and Judge scores on a Gio Urshela single to extend the lead.  The Dodgers get one back in the bottom of the inning on an RBI single by injury replacement Juan Castro, and then they load the bases for 2B Orlando Hudson, who pops out and is injured for the tournament to complete the DL list for the LA DP combo.  With things not going their way, the Dodgers summon their winning pitcher from the semifinal, George Sherril, to begin the 6th, and he holds off the Yanks while the Dodgers rap two consecutive singles to lead off the bottom of the inining, and Tanaka gives way to Luis Cessa from the pen.  Cessa is brilliant, inducing a DP and whiffing Casey Blake to eradicate the threat.  However, Cessa is a disaster in the 7th, yielding an RBI triple to Russell Martin and a run-scoring single to Juan Pierre all off the pitcher’s card and the Yanks signal for closer Zack Britton to try to stop the bleeding.  However, an error by 1B-4 Luke Voit and a walk loads the bases for Blake, who draw a second consecutive walk and the Dodgers move into the lead.  With Sherrill now burnt, the Dodgers bring in closer Jonathan Broxton, who holds in the top of the 8th, although LA misses a chance to extend their lead when 1-13 Martin is nailed at the plate trying to score on a Pierre double.  That leaves it to Broxton to finish out the 9th with a one run edge, and although he walks PH Giancarlo Stanton to begin the inning, he recovers, whiffing Clint Frazier for the final out and the Dodgers clinch the regional crown with the 4-3 win, George Sherrill earning bracket MVP honors by recording the wins in both the semifinal and the final in relief, allowing one hit and no runs in three and a third innings in the two games.  

Interesting card(s) of Regional #248:  Over the course of the tournament, it hasn’t been uncommon to have the same player playing for both teams in a game, and this could have happened in this bracket if last year’s Brewers hadn’t faltered in the semifinals.  It’s also not uncommon in these pairings where one of the cards is better than the other, but not many are quite as different as this particular duo, particularly when they’re only a few seasons apart.  One of the cards represents the league leader in homers; the other has a “W” power rating against both LHP and RHP as expected given the zero homer total.  He was 29 years old in the pandemic 2020 season, but he underwent surgery just before the 2021 season began and he was never quite the same.  His 2023 card is not a “partial” card, either, as it represents his entire output for the season; he went to spring training with the Mets in 2024 but hit .118 in 41 spring appearances and was released.  It seems that he is currently on the roster of the Olmecas de Tabasco of the Mexican League, although I can’t seem to find any statistics to see if he’s been hot for the Tabascos.  

 

The light at the end of the tunnel?  After a careful inventory of progress on the tournament, I've discovered that I own 76 teams that still have yet to make an appearance.  The good news is that I had apparently missed some interesting teams from the 20th century, and I'll be spared from slogging entirely through the remaining brackets with teams from 2023 that I don't find very compelling.  On the other hand, that number doesn't quite come out even; 76 teams constitutes 8 regionals, plus a remainder of four teams.  It turns out that these 8 regionals will be #248 through #256...and those mathematically inclined among you might notice that 256 is an exponent of 2, which would result in a perfectly balanced bracket, where these 256 regional winners simply need to win 8 more games (for a total of 11 consecutive wins) to be crowned as the ultimate champion of Strat single elimination.  

Obviously the karmic masters of probability are sending a signal that entry to the tournament should be cut off when every team I currently own (i.e., current at the time that a game in the project is being played) has made an appearance, which was always my original intent probably dating back 40 years.  At my typical rate of progress, this should happen sometime in November and will thus be before any additional teams from 2024 or other seasons can be added to my collection.  Waiting until new cards are released in February 2025 and adding 30 new 2024 teams would basically mean four new regionals--but I would need another 252 regionals to once again achieve a balanced bracket (adding a 12th straight win).  Neither I nor the game company are likely to last that long, so I guess the 2024 White Sox won't get their chance for glory.  However, even drawing the line at cards printed before this November, there is one remaining fly in the ointment:  there are still four teams left over after the 256 regionals have been filled.

How to handle this?  Well, this whole shebang was largely inspired by NCAA March Madness, and since this project began in 1980 the NCAA developed a cheat on their iconic 64-team bracket through the "play-in games", and if it's good enough for the March Madness, it should be good enough for the Endless Single Elimination Tournament.  So, here is my plan.  First, I will determine the ELO ratings for all 76 remaining teams, who range from 1955 to 2023, and then select the teams with the 8 worst ELO ratings in that group as "play-in" squads.  Those eight teams will be randomly paired, with the winner of each pairing advancing to a regional in the main tournament, where they will be randomly seeded in the bracket as has been tournament tradition.  Only one of the "play-in" winners will be assigned to any given bracket, and since these are the odd teams out I'll assign them to the odd remaining brackets:  #249, #251, #253, and #255.  Note that this will be the first time that any formal "seeding" will have been done in this tournament, and the play-in teams certainly will face a substantial challenge with the additional burden on their starting rotation, but hey--if they don't like it, they should have done better in their regular season.

So, meet the play-in patsies and their ELO rankings, the worst eight of the 76 remaining teams from which four teams will somehow have to win and earn a regional spot.  If playing these play-in games with these dismal squads doesn't drive me away from Strat forever, nothing will.

2023 A's (2362)

2018 Padres (2195)

1999 Rays (2138)

2021 Diamondbacks (2296)

2008 Pirates (2133)

2022 Rockies (2177)

2023 Rockies (2331)

2023 Royals (2283)   

REGIONAL #247:  This bracket would see the final team from the 90s enter the tournament, although probably not a very good one; the main attraction I noted was the pennant-winning 2023 Diamondbacks, although they won as a wild card team and as such might be vulnerable.  However, many of the other teams looked pretty bad, with as an example last year’s White Sox working their way towards this season’s historical level of terribleness, and last year’s Angels giving Ohtani a reason to seek greener pastures.  As such, I figured the Dbacks to be able to handle the competition, guessing that perhaps those 90s Padres might be good enough to make the finals against a weak bottom of the bracket.  The ELO ratings confirmed that the Dbacks weren’t among the best teams in baseball despite making the Series, and that the Dodgers entry was really the only quality team in a bad group, predicted to best the Padres in the final.

First round action

The 2014 Dodgers were the top ranked squad in this bracket, winning 94 games and the NL West and, while the offense wasn’t bad with Adrian Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig and Dee Gordon all receiving MVP votes, their biggest asset won both the MVP and the Cy Young in one Clayton Kershaw (21-3, 1.77).   It wasn’t clear that they would need him against the 2018 Phillies, whose 80-82 record was better than was suggested by a terrible ELO rating, but Aaron Nola (17-6, 2.37) came in 3rd for the Cy Young and was a potential equalizer.  The Phils start out rough as C-3 Wilson Ramon drops a popup to lead off the game to put speedy Dee Gordon on, and Gordon swipes second and scores on a Hanley Ramirez double for a quick lead in the top of the 1st.  However, SS-4 Ramirez quickly returns the favor in the bottom of the inning as a Cesar Hernandez single goes under his glove and Hernandez scores when Ramirez then makes a 2-base error on a Rhys Hoskins grounder.  In the 5th, back to back RBI doubles from Juan Uribe and Andre Ethier give LA a 3-1 lead,  In the top of the 9th, the Dodgers lose LF Matt Kemp for the rest of the regional, but Kershaw hangs on to the lead in the bottom of the inning to close out a 5-hitter and the Dodgers move to the semis with the 3-1 victory.  

The 2023 Diamondbacks went 84-78, which was good enough to make the postseason as a wild card, where they got hot and blew through the playoffs to capture the NL pennant.  Corbin Carroll was Rookie of the Year and came in 5th for the NL MVP, while Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47) finished 3rd for the Cy Young award atop a very shallow rotation, bolstered by a strong pen and solid team defense.  They faced the 2023 Angels, who went 73-89 with their best hitter and their best pitcher both being Shohei Ohtani (10-5, 3.14) who earned the AL MVP for his efforts, although their only other real weapon in Mike Trout would be relegated to later inning duties due to injury-related AB limitations.  The game is still scoreless entering the 6th so Trout gets to come in with the game still on the line, but Gallen strikes him out, while Ohtani strikes out the side in the bottom of the inning and the scoreless tie continues into the 7th.  It quickly ends as Brandon Drury leads off the 7th by converting his HR split, and a few batters later CJ Cron swats an RBI double to chase Gallen and Kevin Ginkel comes in to retire the side, but the Angels lead 2-0 and Ohtani is cruising.  Carroll gets on in the bottom of the inning, but the AA stealer is caught stealing for the second time of the game, and from there Ohtani has it under control to finish out a 4-hit shutout, and the Angels defeat the pennant winners 2-0 to advance. 

The 2023 White Sox were warming up for an historically terrible 2024 season with a merely dreadful 101-loss season that was still bad enough to earn them the bottom seed in this largely dismal group of teams.   Luis Robert headed the offense, receiving some sympathy support for the MVP award, and Mike Clevinger (9-9, 3.77) was the best option in the rotation.   Nonetheless, they had a chance to advance because they drew the #7 seeded 2018 Marlins, who lost 98 games and didn’t help themselves by trading away their primary 1B at the end of the season; Jose Urena (9-12, 3.96) would get the starting assignment for Miami while also being on the Sox roster.  Efforts to give away tickets to this one proved unsuccessful as the locals would rather be eaten by sharks than watch these two teams play.  That meant that they missed the soon-to-be-traded Eloy Jimenez hit a three-run homer of Urena’s card in the top of the 1st for a quick lead for the Sox, and in the 2nd an RBI double from terrible free agent pickup Andrew Benintendi followed by a 2-run homer from Robert and Urena hits the beach as Drew Steckenrider gets his turn on the mound.  At that point, Tim Anderson rolls his injury but to the chagrin of Sox fans everywhere, he shakes it off and stays in the game. Yoan Moncada adds another RBI single in the 3rd, while in the 4th Anderson once again hits his injury and this time he’s out for the regional, giving the Sox a chance to play another terrible SS in Zach Remillard.  In the 7th, new Marlins pitcher Adam Conley is greeted with back to back homers by DH Jake Burger and Jimenez, his second blast of the game, and Clevenger coasts in finishing a 6-hit shutout as the Sox look like world beaters in dispatching the Marlins by a 9-0 margin.  

The last team of the 90s to enter the tournament, the 1991 Padres were the #2 seed in this rather weak regional with an 84-78 record with Tony Gwynn getting some MVP support and Greg Harris (9-5, 2.23) sporting a formidable card.  They drew the 2021 Tigers for the first round, with a 77-85 record and few bright spots, although Jeimer Candelario did lead the AL in doubles and Casey Mize (7-9, 3.71) was a respectable option on the mound.  Robbie Grossman leads off the top of the 1st by converting Harris’s HR split for a quick Detroit lead, but both pitchers then take control and it remains 1-0 Tigers after five.  At this point the Tigers attempt to shore up their weak defense with some replacements, while the Padres look at their bench in a vain attempt to find somebody who can hit.  Detroit only gets one more hit through the 8th inning, but when Harris walks two with two out, the Padres turn to Larry Andersen to try to keep them in striking distance and he ends the threat.  In the bottom of the inning, an error by 3B-2 Candelario and a squib single by Bip Roberts brings up Gwynn with the tying run in scoring position, and the Tigers make a trip to the mound but Mize insists on preserving his shutout.  Sure enough, Gwynn raps a comebacker to P-2 Mize, who converts the DP.  In the 9th, Andersen gets knocked for three singles, the last driving in a run for Harold Castro, and Mize takes a 2-0 lead into the bottom of the 9th.  However, Fred McGriff sends his first pitch 400+ feet into the stands and it’s a one run game, and Spencer Turnbull comes in to try to hold that lead.  He retires three straight and the Tigers hang on for the 2-1 upset and a trip to the semifinals.

The survivors

The 2014 Dodgers and the 2023 Angels have a freeway faceoff, having reached these semifinals on the basis of two pitchers who both won MVP awards.  However, those guys were now spent and the Dodgers clearly had the better second starter in Zack Greinke (17-6, 2.71), who was 7th in the Cy Young votes, against the Angels’ Reid Detmers (4-10, 4.48), although the Dodgers were still without the services of injured LF Matt Kemp.  The Dodgers get a 2 out RBI double from Adrian Gonzalez in the top of the 1st that could have scored two if AA stealer Dee Gordon hadn’t been caught stealing for the third time in the regional.  An RBI single in the bottom of the 2nd by Hunter Renfroe ties the game, but they lose SS Zach Neto to injury for the tournament to lead off the 3rd.  In the 6th, Yasiel Puig finds and converts Detmer’s HR split for a solo shot and a Dodger lead,   Greinke whiffs Mike Trout to start the bottom of the 8th, but a hard single by CJ Cron and the Dodgers summon closer Kenley Jansen and he induces a DP ball from Mike Moustakas to quickly end the inning.  However, 3B-2 Juan Uribe begins the bottom of the 9th with an error and the top of the order is up; Jansen gets two quick outs, the second a whiff of Ohtani, but then he delivers one down the pike to Brandon Drury, and he crushes it into the stands for a walk off two run homer and the Angels pull off the miracle 3-2 comeback to advance to the regional final.  

This semifinal goes from bad (the 2021 Tigers) to worse (the 2023 White Sox) to determine which of these poor excuses for baseball teams will advance to the regional final to face yet another bad team.  For the Tigers, Tyler Alexander (2-4, 3.81) looked to provide an advantage over Dylan Cease (7-9, 4.58) of the Sox, who would be without injured SS Tim Anderson which would actually help their terrible defense.  The Sox rode the longball to the semifinals and they display it again in the top of the 1st with a long solo shot from Luis Robert giving them the early lead.  In the 2nd, Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal both double on missed HR splits, and then injury replacement Zach Remillard hits Alexander’s solid 6-5 HR for a 2-run blast and the Sox push their lead to 4-0.  Victor Reyes wraps one around the foul pole in the bottom of the inning to cut the lead to 4-1, and then in the 3rd Jeimer Candelario smacks a 3-run blast and it’s all tied up.  Then, Derek Hill leads off the bottom of the 4th by converting Cease’s homer result and the Tigers move ahead, but a leadoff single off Alexander’s card in the 6th and the Tigers immediately head to the pen for Kyle Funkhouser, who quickly snuffs out the threat.  However, in the 7th two walks and a single under the glove of 2B-4 Willi Castro loads the bases for the Sox with nobody out, and with the infield in Remillard rolls the gbA++ for a 2-run single, and Andrew Benintendi adds a sac fly to put the Sox ahead again, 7-5.  But Niko Goodrum leads off the bottom of the inning by converting Cease’s HR 1-10 split and the Sox now look in their own bullpen, but see nothing but disaster.  Cease then walks the bases loaded and then as a P-2, drops a sure DP ball that would have ended the inning, and the game is tied with the bases still loaded.  The Sox can take no more and try Gregory Santos out of the pen, and he almost gets out of the jam but C-4 Yasmani Grandal lets a passed ball get by him and the Tigers now lead by a run.  They bring out Spencer Turnbull to pitch the 9th, trying to record his second straight save, and although he issues a walk, he strikes out Robert as the go-ahead run to end the game and the persistent Tigers earn a trip to the finals with the 8-7 win.

Two mediocrities face off in the regional finals, with the 2023 Angels having eliminated the top seed in the semifinals and the 2021 Tigers knocking off the #2 seed in the first round, and both produced comeback wins to get this far.  For the Angels, Griffin Canning (7-8, 4.32) had a pretty bad gopher ball problem, but not as bad as that of the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal (8-12, 4.34) so the wind could be blowing out in Comerica Park today.  The first blast comes in the bottom of the 1st as the Tigers Eric Haase converts his own HR 1-6 split and Detroit leads 2-0,  However, in the top of the 3rd Randall Grichuk counters with a three run homer of his own to put the Angels ahead, and a 2-out double in the 6th off Skubal’s card and the Tigers move to the wild Gregory Soto out of the pen who whiffs PH Mike Trout to do his job.  Although Canning is pitching well, the Angels bring in Jose Soriano to begin the 8th, and he makes it exciting in the 9th as Jonathan Schoop rolls his HR 1-7/flyB for the tying run, but the split is a 10 and Soriano earns the save and the Angels earn the regional crown with the 3-2 win, only the 6th for the franchise.  Surprisingly, it was neither MVP Ohtani or late inning sub Mike Trout who made the difference for the Angels; it was mainly their pitching, who allowed only four runs in the three games that allowed the rest of their lineup to poke out enough runs to squeak by.  

Interesting card of Regional #247:   There have been 11 pitchers who won both the Cy Young and the MVP award in the same season, with this card representing the most recent recipient of these twin accomplishments.  A few months before the 2014 season began, the 26-year old Kershaw signed what was the richest contract for a pitcher in baseball history at the time, a seven year extension for $215 million that seemed pretty risky given the inconsistency and injury-prone nature of most MLB starting pitching these days.  It worked out pretty well, as he immediately won his third Cy Young award (and his first MVP) and although he never won another, he finished in the top 10 in the Cy Young voting in five of those next seven seasons.  I guess I should say he hasn’t won another “so far”, because he’s still active, although he just went on the DL a few days ago with bone spurs after making only 7 starts for the Dodgers after missing most of the season before the All-Star break recovering from shoulder surgery.  It would be nice if he could recover and pitch in the postseason, as his performance in October has been pretty mixed, with a 14-14 record and a 4.49 ERA.  It would be good if he could make that a winning record if indeed this ends up being his final season.

REGIONAL #246:   This bracket involved a collection of quite modern teams with one die-cut outlier from LA, including a couple of pandemic-year squads and a couple that I thought might be pretty good.  The teams that stood out most to me were a Rays team from shortly after their Series appearance, and a pandemic Braves teams shortly before their, and my guess was that those two squads would meet in the finals, although sentimentality would make me pull for the Dodgers from the final year of the classic cards.  As far as guessing the winner was concerned, I figured that the pandemic restrictions might do weird things to the Braves rotation and that the Rays would duplicate the feat of their team from the prior season and take the bracket.  The ELO rankings had those Rays losing to the pandemic-year A’s in the final, which was not something I would have considered possible given how bad Oakland has been in the recent past.

First round action

The 2015 Padres were the #8 seed in this group, although they weren’t a terrible team with a 74-88 record and Tyson Ross (10-12, 3.26) on top of a rotation that was decent enough.  However, they drew the #2 seed in the 2020 Braves, who went 35-25 to win the pandemic NL East but lost the NLCS in seven games; these Braves had NL MVP Freddie Freeman with Marcel Ozuna also finishing among the top ten, and Max Fried (7-0, 2.25) was 5th for the Cy Young, although the mandated rotation would be a whole lot worse after Fried’s turn.  Things start auspiciously for the Padres when the second batter in the top of the 1st, Yonder Alonso, is knocked out of the game with an injury.  The Braves threaten in the early innings but can’t score, while in the top of the 5th Jedd Gyorko gyorks a double off Fried’s card but Yangervis Solarte (1-12+2) is cut down at the plate for out number three. That seems to wake up the Atlanta offense for the bottom of the inning, as back to back RBI doubles by Dansby Swanson and Freeman precede a two-run homer from Ozuna and the Braves lead 4-0 after five.  And that’s how it ends up, with Fried whiffing Derek Norris for his 12th strikeout to complete the 4-0 shutout on a 5-hitter and the Braves ride their one productive inning to the semifinals.

The 2020 A’s were the top seed in this group with a 36-24 record that won the pandemiced AL West, although they didn’t get past the ALDS in the post-season.  Number one starter Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29) and reliever Liam Hendriks both received Cy Young votes, while Matts Chapman and Olson provided home run threats.  The 2021 Reds were over .500 at 83-79 and they garnered a few MVP votes for Nick Castellanos and Joey Votto, while Tyler Mahle (13-6, 3.75) fronted a pretty good rotation.  A’s catcher Sean Murphy is knocked out of the game with an injury in the top of the 2nd; in the bottom of the inning the Reds get a walk and two squib singles to load the bases for Eugenio Suarez, and Bassitt walks him to put Cincinnati up although SS-3 Marcus Semien turns a key DP to prevent further damage.  A 2-out RBI single by Tommy La Stella in the top of the 3rd quickly ties it up, while Bassitt loads the bases again with three straight walks in the bottom of the inning but escapes unscathed, assisted by a nice catch from CF-1 Ramon Laureano.  In the top of the 7th, it’s the A’s turn to load the bases, but this time Matt Chapman takes full advantage with a colossal grand slam, and Art Warren and his 1.29 ERA come out of the pen to end the inning, but Oakland leads 5-1.   In the bottom of the inning Castellanos pokes a 2-run shot and Votto follows with a solo homer and the A’s lead is down to one.  The A’s desperately want to save their pen and so Bassitt takes the game into the 9th; he gets two quick outs but then walks Jonathan India to bring up Castellanos, who rips a solid double and 1-15+2 India scores easily and the game is tied.  Bassitt then retires Votto and the game heads to extra innings, where both Warren and Bassitt survive their final inning in the 10th.  The Reds bring in Tejay Antone for the 11th, but he walks Robbie Grossman and then allows a 2-run homer as Chapman adds to his totals.  The A’s then hand the game to Joakim Soria and he does the job to wrap up the 11-inning 7-5 win, with the A’s moving on and will get Murphy back in the lineup for the semifinal.  

The 2018 Pirates had an 82-79 record that was better than many of their efforts over the past decades, and it was good enough to make them the favorite in this first round matchup, particularly with Trevor Williams (14-10, 3.11) being a solid starter at the top of the rotation.  The 2023 Red Sox went a disappointing 78-84, three games under their Pythagorean projection, and they had Rafael Devers receiving some MVP support, while Nick Pivetta (10-9, 4.04) had two primary challenges, his gopher ball tendencies and his teams’ terrible infield defense.  Gregory Polanco caps off a two-out rally in the top of the 3rd with a three-run homer, and the Bucs get another run in the 5th on a two-out RBI double from Corey Dickerson.  When Pivetta gets into a jam in the 6th, the Red Sox summon reliever Chris Martin and he puts out the fire with no damage, and Devers pokes a solo shot in the 7th to bring Boston a little closer.  But that was only the second hit off Williams, and it turns out that’s all the Red Sox will get as the Pirates move on with a 4-1 win.

The 1986 Dodgers would be one of the last teams of the 80s to enter the tournament, although not a particularly good one with a 73-89 record despite a typically strong rotation led by Cy Young runner-up Fernando Valenzuela.   The 2022 Rays had a much better record at 86-76 and made a brief postseason appearance as a wild card, but aside from Yandy Diaz, who got a couple of MVP votes, the offense wasn’t great at getting on base, although Shane McClanahan (12-8, 2.54) was 6th in the Cy Young ballots.  Valenzuela has a rough spot in the bottom of the 3rd, walking three including one with the bases loaded, and then a fielder’s choice and a 2-out 2-run single by Manny Margot and the Dodgers are suddenly looking at a 4-0 deficit.  However, in the top of the 4th they respond with a Greg Brock solo shot and a Mike Marshall two-run homer that makes it a one-run game, although a 2-out RBI single from Wander Franco in the 6th gives the Rays a little padding.  A Bill Madlock single in the 8th and the Rays decide to go to their fairly deep bullpen for Jason Adam’s 1.56 ERA, and he records two quick strikeouts to end that threat.  He also tosses a perfect 9th and the Rays move on with a 5-3 win; even though they could only muster six hits against Valenzuela, they were timely ones.    

The survivors

The top two teams in the bracket, both from the pandemic season, match up in this semifinal between the top seeded 2020 A’s and the #2 seed 2020 Braves.  With the constraint of limited innings, neither team had a choice of their starter and both the A’s Jesus Luzardo (3-2, 4.12) and the Braves’ Josh Tomlin (2-2, 4.76) had some trouble with the long ball.  The Braves see a long ball from Freddie Freeman in the top of the 1st that gives them a quick 1-0 lead, and then Adam Duvall leads off the 2nd with another solo shot to extend that margin.   A two out RBI double from Matt Chapman makes it 2-1 Atlanta after three, but in the top of the 4th A’s SS-3 Marcus Semien makes a two-base error that sets up a 2-run double by Austin Riley.  Luzardo comes unglued, and after a few walks he gets a DP ball that scores another, but it only clears the bases for a solo shot from Dansby Swanson.   That’s it for Luzardo as the desperate A’s summon closer Liam Hendriks to record the final out, but they are now down 6-1.  The Braves put in defensive replacements in the 6th, but that looks like it may be premature as Ramon Laureano finds Tomlin’s solid HR results for a two-run shot in the bottom of the inning to make things more interesting;  A leadoff single in the bottom of the 8th chases Tomlin for Jacob Webb, who yields a squib single but then strikes out three straight to prevent any damage.  Defensive replacement Ozzie Albies then leads off the 9th by converting his HR split and the cardboard cutout fans in the stands begin packing for Las Vegas.  Webb yields another hit in the bottom of the 9th but otherwise strikes out the side once again to earn the save in the 7-3 win that propels the Braves to the finals.  

The #3 seeded 2022 Rays and a very solid Jeffrey Springs (9-5, 2.46) would take their shot at the bracket finals against the 2018 Pirates and Jameson Taillon (14-10, 3.20).  Pirates 2B Josh Harrison leaves the game with a minor injury in the 3rd, but they get a run in the 4th on a Corey Dickerson sac fly to strike first.  Jose Siri leads off the bottom of the 5th by converting Taillon’s HR split to tie the game, although the Rays strand two in scoring position to squander a chance for more.  A leadoff single by Yandy Diaz in the bottom of the 8th chases Taillon for Kyle Crick, who ends the threat uneventfully.  Both pitchers toss perfect 9th innings and we head to extra frames, where Springs winds up his eligibility to give the Rays a chance to finish it.  But they can’t paddle against Crick and so Pete Fairbanks and his 1.13 ERA takes the mound for the Rays in the 11th.  That immediately goes badly as Josh Bell misses a triple split for a single to lead off the inning, and then Gregory Polanco sends one into the dim recesses of the Trop for a 2-run shot.  The Bucs then bring in Keone Kela to close things out in the bottom of the 11th, but he promptly throws a Brandon Lowe grounder into the dugout for a 2-base error, and then yields a double to Manuel Margot to make it a one run game with the tying run in scoring position and one out.  He strikes out Siri, but PH Ji-Man Choi converts a DO 1-8/flyB off Kela’s card and the game is tied.  In the 12th, Randy Arozarena also converts that same split off Kela but 1-11 Diaz is out at the plate and we head to the 13th.  In the top of that frame, Corey Dickerson hits a 2-out double and 1-11+2 Josh Bell heads for home–he’s safe, and again the Pirates move ahead.  However, a leadoff double by Brandon Lowe and an error by SS-2 Wander Franco and Kela is in another jam with nobody out.  He bears down and gets two out, but Franco atones with a 2-out RBI single and once again the game is tied and heads to the 14th.  Fairbanks is perfect in his last inning of eligibility, as is Kela and things move to the 15th with two new pitchers.  For the Rays, it’s the unhittable JP Feyereisen and his 0.00 ERA, and he gets in and out of a jam to send things to the bottom of the inning with Felipe Vezquez the new Pittsburgh pitcher.  Siri gets injured hitting into a DP and we’re off to the 16th and beyond.  When the game hits the 19th it’s time for new relievers for both squads, and Brooks Raley for Tampa and Richard Rodriguez for the Pirates continue the offensive futility.  In th top of the 20th Adam Frazier misses a HR 1-12 split with a 13 roll, and in the bottom of the inning Brandon Lowe misses a HR 1-4 split with a 5 roll, and the game marches on.  In the bottom of the 21st Harold Ramirez doubles and 1-15 Margot sets sail for home, and he’s out on a 17.  Finally, in the top of the 22nd Starling Marte lofts a sac fly that scores Polanco, and Rodriquez strikes out the side in the bottom of the inning and the Pirates manage to survive the 22-inning marathon for the 5-4 win, but they will have no bullpen to speak of for the bracket final.  

I almost predicted the regional final matchup accurately, but a 22-inning win by the 2018 Pirates got them the task of facing the 2020 Braves for the bracket crown.  Both teams would be facing pitching challenges; with the pandemic inning limitations, the Braves’ Tommy Milone (1-4, 6.69) would have one of the worst cards ever to start a regional final, while Joe Musgrove (6-9, 4.06) of the Pirates had better do well because the Pittsburgh bullpen was toast after the marathon semifinal. A 2-base error by Bucs SS-3 Jordy Mercer gives the Braves a 1-0 lead in the top of the 1st, but the Pirates immediately go to work on Milone’s terrible card in the bottom of the inning, recording a double followed by a solid HR from Gregory Polanco and Pittsburgh moves ahead 2-1.  In the 4th, Starling Marte also rolls Milone’s solid HR result for a solo shot, but Milone makes it through his mandatory 5 innings without further damage, so Ian Anderson picks up the flute to begin th e 6th, but Marte drives an RBI single and the Bucs’ lead is now thick as a brick.  Or so it appears, as the Braves load the bases against Musgrove in the top of the 8th, and a glance at the bullpen reveals no help so Musgrove stays in and delivers to Ronald Acuna, who slaps a 2-run single and it’s a one-run game with the tying run on 3rd and one away.  The infield comes in, Acuna sets off for second, and he’s out on a 19 split and Polanco hauls in a long fly and the Pirates still lead by a run.  That puts the game in Musgrove’s hands for the 9th, and although he yields a single to the quick Ozzie Albies, he fans PH Tyler Flowers for the game’s final out.  This is the 9th bracket win for the Pirates franchise, but their first from the 21st century, and it was mainly due to regional MVP Gregory Polanco, who homered in all three rounds while driving in seven to lead the Pirates to the win as a #5 seed.

Interesting card of Regional #246:  Tommy Milone, the starter for the 2020 Braves in the regional final, received two cards for that pandemic-shortened season–one for his combined stats and one for his performance only with the Braves.  According to tournament guidelines, the card with the higher IP/AB must be used in such cases; the bad news was that Milone’s combined card IP was third highest among Braves starters and thus he had to start the final, but the good news is that at least the Braves didn’t have to use this card.  It looks like Milone made three starts for the Braves, and they must have been ugly, although somehow he managed to avoid earning the loss in any of the three.   Milone was not without some career highlights–for example, he homered in his first major league at-bat for the Nationals in 2011.  Bouncing around nine different teams in a 13-year career, he ended up with a .500 record and last played in the majors in 2023.  However, he didn’t have many opportunities to play in the postseason, and it’s pretty easy to see why the Braves opted not to use him in their 2020 playoff run.